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Samuel Seitz

Biographic Data

ID6211484
NAMESamuel Seitz
GIVEN NAMESSamuel
FAMILY NAMESeitz
SIGNATURESEITZ S
AFFILIATIONSUniversity of Oxford
ORCID0000-0002-6611-3054
VERIFIEDYes
TOTAL WORKS4
TOTAL CITATIONS4
AUTHOR COUNT4
EDITOR COUNT0
FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR2020
LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR2026
H-INDEX1
  • Resisting relegation to the rank and file: Explaining the effects of status seeking on military force structure

    Open Access•Samuel Seitz•ARTICLE•European Journal of International…•2026

    States can acquire international status through battlefield performance, but they can also pursue it through the fielding of ostentatious prestige platforms that look impressive but, unless properly supported, possess limited battlefield utility. When and how do status concerns influence states’ military force structure choices? This article advances a choice-theoretic model of states’ military force structure choices as a function of external th…

  • When competition becomes contagious: Strategic arms racing spillovers, alliance politics, and the Sino-American nuclear competition

    Open Access•Samuel M Seitz, Samuel Seitz et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Strategic Studies•2025•References: 32

    The development of new conventional counterforce systems and improved missile defence systems enables non-nuclear states to directly influence the strategic nuclear balance. These dynamics increase the possibility of strategic arms racing spillovers, where arms racing in one dyad yields capabilities that threaten third parties’ arsenals and thus creates a type of security dilemma. It also increases the risk of non-nuclear allies entrapping their …

  • Letting sleeping bears lie: Ukraine’s cautious approach to uncertainty before the war

    Open Access•Samuel Seitz•ARTICLE•Arms Control•2023•Cited by: 3•References: 17

    International relations theory has long suggested that uncertainty during militarized crises pushes states to adopt escalatory behavior.However, the leadup to the Russo-Ukrainian War challenges this view, with Kyiv downplaying the risk of conflict and adopting a cautious foreign policy.I argue that Ukrainian behavior in the leadup to the war demonstrates the need to disaggregate between types of uncertainty.While uncertainty over an adversary's i…

  • The Predictable Hazards of Unpredictability: Why Madman Behavior Doesn’t Work

    Samuel Seitz, Caitlin Talmadge•ARTICLE•The Washington Quarterly•2020•Cited by: 1

    President Trump has routinely touted the foreign policy benefits of unpredictability. As candidate Trump complained about the US administration in 2016, “We are totally predictable. We tell everyth

  • Letting sleeping bears lie: Ukraine’s cautious approach to uncertainty before the war

    Open Access•Samuel Seitz•ARTICLE•Arms Control•2023•Cited by: 3•References: 17

    International relations theory has long suggested that uncertainty during militarized crises pushes states to adopt escalatory behavior.However, the leadup to the Russo-Ukrainian War challenges this view, with Kyiv downplaying the risk of conflict and adopting a cautious foreign policy.I argue that Ukrainian behavior in the leadup to the war demonstrates the need to disaggregate between types of uncertainty.While uncertainty over an adversary's i…

  • The Predictable Hazards of Unpredictability: Why Madman Behavior Doesn’t Work

    Samuel Seitz, Caitlin Talmadge•ARTICLE•The Washington Quarterly•2020•Cited by: 1

    President Trump has routinely touted the foreign policy benefits of unpredictability. As candidate Trump complained about the US administration in 2016, “We are totally predictable. We tell everyth

  • The Predictable Hazards of Unpredictability: Why Madman Behavior Doesn’t Work

    Samuel Seitz, Caitlin Talmadge•ARTICLE•The Washington Quarterly•2020•Cited by: 1

    President Trump has routinely touted the foreign policy benefits of unpredictability. As candidate Trump complained about the US administration in 2016, “We are totally predictable. We tell everyth

  • Letting sleeping bears lie: Ukraine’s cautious approach to uncertainty before the war

    Open Access•Samuel Seitz•ARTICLE•Arms Control•2023•Cited by: 3•References: 17

    International relations theory has long suggested that uncertainty during militarized crises pushes states to adopt escalatory behavior.However, the leadup to the Russo-Ukrainian War challenges this view, with Kyiv downplaying the risk of conflict and adopting a cautious foreign policy.I argue that Ukrainian behavior in the leadup to the war demonstrates the need to disaggregate between types of uncertainty.While uncertainty over an adversary's i…

  • When competition becomes contagious: Strategic arms racing spillovers, alliance politics, and the Sino-American nuclear competition

    Open Access•Samuel M Seitz, Samuel Seitz et al.•ARTICLE•Journal of Strategic Studies•2025•References: 32

    The development of new conventional counterforce systems and improved missile defence systems enables non-nuclear states to directly influence the strategic nuclear balance. These dynamics increase the possibility of strategic arms racing spillovers, where arms racing in one dyad yields capabilities that threaten third parties’ arsenals and thus creates a type of security dilemma. It also increases the risk of non-nuclear allies entrapping their …

  • Resisting relegation to the rank and file: Explaining the effects of status seeking on military force structure

    Open Access•Samuel Seitz•ARTICLE•European Journal of International…•2026

    States can acquire international status through battlefield performance, but they can also pursue it through the fielding of ostentatious prestige platforms that look impressive but, unless properly supported, possess limited battlefield utility. When and how do status concerns influence states’ military force structure choices? This article advances a choice-theoretic model of states’ military force structure choices as a function of external th…

International Relations and Foreign Policy (4 works) · Law (3 works) · Law (3 works) · Political science (3 works) · Business (2 works) · Economics (2 works) · European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies (2 works) · Foreign policy (2 works) · Political economy (2 works) · Politics (2 works)

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