Terje Aven
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 6274155 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Terje Aven |
| PRENOMES | Terje |
| SOBRENOME | Aven |
| ASSINATURA | AVEN T |
| AFILIAÇÕES | University of Stavanger |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-8309-7861 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 40 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 90 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 40 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2009 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 4 |
The non-science of risk science
While science and evidence are paramount to the quality of risk studies, there is an increasing recognition that risk studies can be influenced by factors such as conflicts of interest, coercion, organizational hierarchies, funding structures, and many others. Those factors can then influence how the risk study’s integrity is evaluated and also impact the integrity of the risk analysts and the institutions funding the risk study. In this paper, w…
A framework to characterize the balance between risk science quality and usefulness
In recent years, there has been momentum toward defining the quality of evidence and the overall quality of risk studies, leading to considerable advances in understanding due diligence for risk science applications. There is also increasing recognition that risk studies may not always meet the criteria of a high-quality risk study but still be useful. However, there remain questions about concurrent goals of both quality and usefulness. In this …
Hazard versus risk
A risk science perspective on how to evaluate the quality of intelligence assessments
Recent articles on intelligence theory have shown that guidelines for evaluating and expressing the quality of intelligence assessments are based on weak theoretical justifications and lack a proper theoretical foundation. Risk and intelligence analysts face similar issues related to understanding, assessing, and communicating threats and uncertainties. This article draws on risk science’s advances in evaluating the strength of the knowledge used…
A framework for understanding and dealing with tensions in risk science
A framework for evaluating ideological thinking and claims for risk science
A risk science review of the WEF global risk reports
Evaluating risk analyst views on uncertainty and knowledge aspects for risk characterization approaches
On principles and standards of practice for the risk analyst in partnership with evolving technologies
Commentary to paper ‘ Regulating risk for growth
A risk science perspective on the treatment of uncertainty in EIAs
A risk science perspective on the Covid-19 risk handling
This paper provides some reflections on the risk handling of the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide: What went wrong, and what worked well?On many issues -for example the origin of the coronavirus, societal lockdowns, and the effectiveness and safety of the vaccines -there are still considerable uncertainties and discussion.The paper aims to provide a new perspective on the risk handling, by studying such issues through the lens of risk science.This per…
A risk science perspective on some fundamental issues in climate change research
Risk science, with its concepts, principles, models, theories, approaches and methods for understanding, assessing, characterizing, communicating and handling risk, provides insights and guidance for climate change research on topics related to risk. The present paper discusses some of these topics, the main aim being to contribute to strengthening the research on climate change risks and in particular the analysis, management and governance of s…
Defining and assessing risk analysis quality
The Applied Risk Management Specialty Group of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) identified a need to define, characterize, and improve risk analysis quality, specifically its quality in supporting risk management. To address that need, they drew on prior research and experience to develop the Risk Analysis Quality Test, the RAQT, a list of 76 questions, each asking if a risk analysis satisfies an aspect of risk analysis quality. The RAQT is bo…
Evaluation of information quality derived from AI-related information systems used for risk applications
The use of artificial intelligence, such as text and image generators, is increasingly prevalent and accessible. These technologies have been both criticized and also promoted for their potential to automate tasks and increase efficiencies. From a risk perspective, we can interpret these technologies as a new addition to an already-abundant toolkit that can aid in risk applications. However, these new technologies need to be vetted for use in ris…
Characterizations of Covid-19 risk
To handle the risks related to coronavirus and the COVID-19 disease, governments worldwide have adopted different policies and strategies. These policies and strategies build on various approaches and methods to assess and convey the risks. This paper looks more closely into these approaches and methods. We review and discuss practices in four countries (Norway, the UK, the US and Sweden), focusing on the approaches, methods and models used to as…
A new perspective for the integration of intelligence and risk management in a customs and border control context
This paper concerns intelligence and risk management in a customs and border control context. Intelligence here refers to the collection, sharing, processing, analysis and dissemination of information on threats, related to cross-border movements of goods, travellers, illegal activities, and serious organized crime. The main aim of the paper is to present a new perspective for the integration of intelligence and risk management for this context. …
A framework for understanding risk based on the concepts of ontology and epistemology
Two fundamental philosophical concepts of social science are ontology (idealism and realism), relating to what reality is, and epistemology (epistemological realism, epistemological idealism), relating to how one can obtain knowledge about that reality. These concepts are cornerstones in identifying, understanding, and describing core strategies in sociological theorizing (empiricism, substantialism, rationalism, and subjectivism). Similar philos…
When to dismiss an alternative hypothesis or theory? A risk and uncertainty perspective
In society, there is often an ‘official view’ – a mainstream account – and alternatives to this view are seen as representing a disturbance and hampering this view’s policy implementation. There is often considerable pressure to dismiss these alternatives. Reference to conspiracy theories is commonly used to ensure such dismissal. This paper discusses the issue of when an alternative hypothesis or theory can and should be dismissed. New insights …
Risk science offers an integrated approach to resilience
On how to characterize and confront misinformation in a risk context
Misinformation is one of the largest challenges for risk assessment and communication. However, the term misinformation in relation to risk has not yet been clearly interpreted by the risk field. Basic definitions of misinformation point to false, incorrect, inaccurate and misleading information. However, when it comes to risk, there is in many cases no reference for what is the truth - the risk magnitude needs to be evaluated on the basis of ana…
How the risk science can help us establish a good safety culture
This paper is about how we can make further sense of the safety culture concept in safety and risk management. Safety culture is here understood as shared beliefs, norms, values, practices and structures, with respect to safety, in an organization. We argue that the risk science (interpreted in its broadest sense to also include safety science) provides important reference points for what these beliefs, norms, values and practices should be. For …
The Covid-19 pandemic
This paper reflects on how risk science, with its concepts, principles, approaches, methods and models, can support the actual assessments, communication and handling of the vulnerabilities and risks related to the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. We highlight the importance of acknowledging uncertainty as a main component of risk, in order to properly characterize and communicate risk, as well as to understand the difference between professional…
Teaching children and youths about risk and risk analysis
Work has recently been initiated to teach children and youths about risk and risk analysis, highlighting conceptual issues, risk assessment, risk communication, as well as risk management (decision-making). Using this work as a point of departure, this article provides a discussion of the foundation of this type of teaching: what do we wish to obtain, in short- and long-term perspectives, and what is the scientific risk analysis basis? Key pillar…
Some foundational issues related to risk governance and different types of risks
Risk governance has in recent years become a commonly used concept in relation to the understanding, assessment, management and communication of risk or risk problems, including so-called systemic risks. Substantial scientific work has been conducted to establish a proper foundation for this concept and its applications. Nonetheless, there are still some issues that remain to be clarified, for example how to best characterise risks and risk probl…
On risk defined as an event where the outcome is uncertain
In the social sciences, two prevailing definitions of risk are: (1) risk is a situation or event where something of human value (including humans themselves) is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain; (2) risk is an uncertain consequence of an event or an activity with respect to something that humans value. According to these definitions, risk expresses an ontology (a theory of being) independent of our knowledge and perceptions. In this pa…
The Covid-19 pandemic
This paper reflects on how risk science, with its concepts, principles, approaches, methods and models, can support the actual assessments, communication and handling of the vulnerabilities and risks related to the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. We highlight the importance of acknowledging uncertainty as a main component of risk, in order to properly characterize and communicate risk, as well as to understand the difference between professional…
Some foundational issues related to risk governance and different types of risks
Risk governance has in recent years become a commonly used concept in relation to the understanding, assessment, management and communication of risk or risk problems, including so-called systemic risks. Substantial scientific work has been conducted to establish a proper foundation for this concept and its applications. Nonetheless, there are still some issues that remain to be clarified, for example how to best characterise risks and risk probl…
Climate change risk – what is it and how should it be expressed
This paper provides new knowledge on how to understand and describe climate change risk. This type of risk is of the utmost importance for us all, but current approaches for conceptualizing and characterizing it, as for example used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), suffer from severe weaknesses, resulting in poor communication and misguidance. Two main problems are that the risk concept is too strongly associated with stat…
Making visible the less visible – how the use of an uncertainty-based risk perspective affects risk attenuation and risk amplification
We show how an uncertainty-based perspective on risk conceptualization and characterization affects attenuation and amplification: two concepts described in the Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF). Compared to more traditional ways of considering risk, an uncertainty-based risk perspective has a stronger focus on uncertainties and the knowledge, supporting assigned probabilities and risk assessment results. This way of relating to risks…
A risk science perspective on the Covid-19 risk handling
This paper provides some reflections on the risk handling of the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide: What went wrong, and what worked well?On many issues -for example the origin of the coronavirus, societal lockdowns, and the effectiveness and safety of the vaccines -there are still considerable uncertainties and discussion.The paper aims to provide a new perspective on the risk handling, by studying such issues through the lens of risk science.This per…
A framework for understanding risk based on the concepts of ontology and epistemology
Two fundamental philosophical concepts of social science are ontology (idealism and realism), relating to what reality is, and epistemology (epistemological realism, epistemological idealism), relating to how one can obtain knowledge about that reality. These concepts are cornerstones in identifying, understanding, and describing core strategies in sociological theorizing (empiricism, substantialism, rationalism, and subjectivism). Similar philos…
Risk assessment in critical care medicine
In many industries and areas, risk assessment has shown to be a useful decision-making tool, to compare options and study the need for risk-reducing measures. In health care, risk assessment is on relatively new ground, and in this paper, we address its use in this area, with emphasis on patient safety. We present a new approach to such assessments for this type of application, using a broad risk perspective where risk is defined as the two-dimen…
A risk science perspective on some fundamental issues in climate change research
Risk science, with its concepts, principles, models, theories, approaches and methods for understanding, assessing, characterizing, communicating and handling risk, provides insights and guidance for climate change research on topics related to risk. The present paper discusses some of these topics, the main aim being to contribute to strengthening the research on climate change risks and in particular the analysis, management and governance of s…
Evaluation of information quality derived from AI-related information systems used for risk applications
The use of artificial intelligence, such as text and image generators, is increasingly prevalent and accessible. These technologies have been both criticized and also promoted for their potential to automate tasks and increase efficiencies. From a risk perspective, we can interpret these technologies as a new addition to an already-abundant toolkit that can aid in risk applications. However, these new technologies need to be vetted for use in ris…
Risk science offers an integrated approach to resilience
On how to characterize and confront misinformation in a risk context
Misinformation is one of the largest challenges for risk assessment and communication. However, the term misinformation in relation to risk has not yet been clearly interpreted by the risk field. Basic definitions of misinformation point to false, incorrect, inaccurate and misleading information. However, when it comes to risk, there is in many cases no reference for what is the truth - the risk magnitude needs to be evaluated on the basis of ana…
How the risk science can help us establish a good safety culture
This paper is about how we can make further sense of the safety culture concept in safety and risk management. Safety culture is here understood as shared beliefs, norms, values, practices and structures, with respect to safety, in an organization. We argue that the risk science (interpreted in its broadest sense to also include safety science) provides important reference points for what these beliefs, norms, values and practices should be. For …
Further reflections on Efsa’s work on uncertainty in scientific assessments
This is a perspective paper, discussing the ongoing developments on uncertainty analysis at the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). These developments raise interesting questions, which have recently been addressed by several authors. These questions relate to the fundamentals of uncertainty analysis – what it actually is and can do, the link between uncertainty analysis and risk, and how the uncertainties should be best communicated. The pape…
Response to Professor Eugene Rosa’s viewpoint to our paper
This note provides a response to Professor Eugene Rosa’s viewpoint to our paper On Risk Defined as an Event Where the Outcome is Uncertain published in this journal in January 2009. We argue that his summary of our work does not reflect what we are saying in the original paper. We restate that Rosa’s definition represents one possible way of looking at risk, but there are others, including ours. Rosa’s definition separates ontology and epistemolo…
A risk science perspective on the treatment of uncertainty in EIAs
Teaching children and youths about risk and risk analysis
Work has recently been initiated to teach children and youths about risk and risk analysis, highlighting conceptual issues, risk assessment, risk communication, as well as risk management (decision-making). Using this work as a point of departure, this article provides a discussion of the foundation of this type of teaching: what do we wish to obtain, in short- and long-term perspectives, and what is the scientific risk analysis basis? Key pillar…
Using qualitative types of risk assessments in conjunction with FRAM to strengthen the resilience of systems
In this paper, we look into how some qualitative types of risk assessments can be used in conjunction with functional resonance analysis method (FRAM) to strengthen the resilience of systems. In FRAM, variation in relation to meeting specified functions is central, but risk and uncertainty considerations are not an integral part. We suggest to add to FRAM an assessment of the modelling choices and judgements using strength of knowledge considerat…
Weighing private preferences in public sector safety decisions
Viewed from both an ethical and practical perspective, it is clearly desirable that public sector allocative and regulatory decisions should, so far as possible, reflect the preferences of individual members of society. It is therefore hardly surprising that, in appraising proposed safety improvements, public sector bodies have displayed an increasing tendency to estimate the benefits of such improvements on the basis of values of safety defined …
A risk perspective supporting organizational efforts for achieving high reliability
Many industries and organizations are actively searching for approaches that can help them enhance the reliability of their operations and avoid mishaps. The concept of high reliability organizations (HROs) has been given considerable attention in this regard. HRO theorists have emphasized the process of mindfulness as a characteristic that allows for better interaction with risk and uncertainty, in order to minimize the potential for failures. F…
On risk defined as an event where the outcome is uncertain
In the social sciences, two prevailing definitions of risk are: (1) risk is a situation or event where something of human value (including humans themselves) is at stake and where the outcome is uncertain; (2) risk is an uncertain consequence of an event or an activity with respect to something that humans value. According to these definitions, risk expresses an ontology (a theory of being) independent of our knowledge and perceptions. In this pa…
Risk assessment in critical care medicine
In many industries and areas, risk assessment has shown to be a useful decision-making tool, to compare options and study the need for risk-reducing measures. In health care, risk assessment is on relatively new ground, and in this paper, we address its use in this area, with emphasis on patient safety. We present a new approach to such assessments for this type of application, using a broad risk perspective where risk is defined as the two-dimen…
Esrel 2007 ‐ the 18th European Safety and Reliability Conference
This special issue is devoted to papers from the 18th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2007, held in Stavanger Norway, 25–27 June, 2007. The papers are extended and improved versio
Misconceptions of Risk
Preface. 1 Risk is Equal to the Expected Value. 2 Risk is a Probability or Probability Distribution. 3 Risk Equals a Probability Distribution Quantile (Value-at-Risk). 4 Risk Equals Uncertainty. 5 Risk is Equal to an Event. 6 Risk Equals Expected Disutility. 7 Risk is Restricted to the Case of Objective Probabilities. 8 Risk is the Same as Risk Perception. 9 Risk Relates to Negative Consequences Only. 10 Risk is Determined by the Historical Data.…
Response to Professor Eugene Rosa’s viewpoint to our paper
This note provides a response to Professor Eugene Rosa’s viewpoint to our paper On Risk Defined as an Event Where the Outcome is Uncertain published in this journal in January 2009. We argue that his summary of our work does not reflect what we are saying in the original paper. We restate that Rosa’s definition represents one possible way of looking at risk, but there are others, including ours. Rosa’s definition separates ontology and epistemolo…
The risk concept—historical and recent development trends
A risk perspective supporting organizational efforts for achieving high reliability
Many industries and organizations are actively searching for approaches that can help them enhance the reliability of their operations and avoid mishaps. The concept of high reliability organizations (HROs) has been given considerable attention in this regard. HRO theorists have emphasized the process of mindfulness as a characteristic that allows for better interaction with risk and uncertainty, in order to minimize the potential for failures. F…
The substitution principle in chemical regulation
First of all I would like to congratulate Ragnar Lofstedt on an interesting and important analysis of the substitution principle, one of the building blocks of modern-day chemical regulation. I agr
A framework for selection of strategy for management of security measures
In this paper, we present and discuss a framework for security risk management, focusing on the selection of a management strategy for decision-making on security measures in particular. The framework provides guidance on the selection of a suitable type of management strategy for various types of decision-making contexts. An Information and Communication Technology case study is used to illustrate the practical implications of the framework
Risk assessment and risk management
Risk assessment and management was established as a scientific field some 30–40 years ago. Principles and methods were developed for how to conceptualise, assess and manage risk. These principles and methods still represent to a large extent the foundation of this field today, but many advances have been made, linked to both the theoretical platform and practical models and procedures. The purpose of the present invited paper is to perform a revi…
Weighing private preferences in public sector safety decisions
Viewed from both an ethical and practical perspective, it is clearly desirable that public sector allocative and regulatory decisions should, so far as possible, reflect the preferences of individual members of society. It is therefore hardly surprising that, in appraising proposed safety improvements, public sector bodies have displayed an increasing tendency to estimate the benefits of such improvements on the basis of values of safety defined …
Further reflections on Efsa’s work on uncertainty in scientific assessments
This is a perspective paper, discussing the ongoing developments on uncertainty analysis at the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). These developments raise interesting questions, which have recently been addressed by several authors. These questions relate to the fundamentals of uncertainty analysis – what it actually is and can do, the link between uncertainty analysis and risk, and how the uncertainties should be best communicated. The pape…
Using qualitative types of risk assessments in conjunction with FRAM to strengthen the resilience of systems
In this paper, we look into how some qualitative types of risk assessments can be used in conjunction with functional resonance analysis method (FRAM) to strengthen the resilience of systems. In FRAM, variation in relation to meeting specified functions is central, but risk and uncertainty considerations are not an integral part. We suggest to add to FRAM an assessment of the modelling choices and judgements using strength of knowledge considerat…
Teaching children and youths about risk and risk analysis
Work has recently been initiated to teach children and youths about risk and risk analysis, highlighting conceptual issues, risk assessment, risk communication, as well as risk management (decision-making). Using this work as a point of departure, this article provides a discussion of the foundation of this type of teaching: what do we wish to obtain, in short- and long-term perspectives, and what is the scientific risk analysis basis? Key pillar…
Some foundational issues related to risk governance and different types of risks
Risk governance has in recent years become a commonly used concept in relation to the understanding, assessment, management and communication of risk or risk problems, including so-called systemic risks. Substantial scientific work has been conducted to establish a proper foundation for this concept and its applications. Nonetheless, there are still some issues that remain to be clarified, for example how to best characterise risks and risk probl…
Climate change risk – what is it and how should it be expressed
This paper provides new knowledge on how to understand and describe climate change risk. This type of risk is of the utmost importance for us all, but current approaches for conceptualizing and characterizing it, as for example used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), suffer from severe weaknesses, resulting in poor communication and misguidance. Two main problems are that the risk concept is too strongly associated with stat…
Making visible the less visible – how the use of an uncertainty-based risk perspective affects risk attenuation and risk amplification
We show how an uncertainty-based perspective on risk conceptualization and characterization affects attenuation and amplification: two concepts described in the Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF). Compared to more traditional ways of considering risk, an uncertainty-based risk perspective has a stronger focus on uncertainties and the knowledge, supporting assigned probabilities and risk assessment results. This way of relating to risks…
The Covid-19 pandemic
This paper reflects on how risk science, with its concepts, principles, approaches, methods and models, can support the actual assessments, communication and handling of the vulnerabilities and risks related to the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. We highlight the importance of acknowledging uncertainty as a main component of risk, in order to properly characterize and communicate risk, as well as to understand the difference between professional…
How the risk science can help us establish a good safety culture
This paper is about how we can make further sense of the safety culture concept in safety and risk management. Safety culture is here understood as shared beliefs, norms, values, practices and structures, with respect to safety, in an organization. We argue that the risk science (interpreted in its broadest sense to also include safety science) provides important reference points for what these beliefs, norms, values and practices should be. For …
Risk science offers an integrated approach to resilience
On how to characterize and confront misinformation in a risk context
Misinformation is one of the largest challenges for risk assessment and communication. However, the term misinformation in relation to risk has not yet been clearly interpreted by the risk field. Basic definitions of misinformation point to false, incorrect, inaccurate and misleading information. However, when it comes to risk, there is in many cases no reference for what is the truth - the risk magnitude needs to be evaluated on the basis of ana…
Characterizations of Covid-19 risk
To handle the risks related to coronavirus and the COVID-19 disease, governments worldwide have adopted different policies and strategies. These policies and strategies build on various approaches and methods to assess and convey the risks. This paper looks more closely into these approaches and methods. We review and discuss practices in four countries (Norway, the UK, the US and Sweden), focusing on the approaches, methods and models used to as…
A new perspective for the integration of intelligence and risk management in a customs and border control context
This paper concerns intelligence and risk management in a customs and border control context. Intelligence here refers to the collection, sharing, processing, analysis and dissemination of information on threats, related to cross-border movements of goods, travellers, illegal activities, and serious organized crime. The main aim of the paper is to present a new perspective for the integration of intelligence and risk management for this context. …
A framework for understanding risk based on the concepts of ontology and epistemology
Two fundamental philosophical concepts of social science are ontology (idealism and realism), relating to what reality is, and epistemology (epistemological realism, epistemological idealism), relating to how one can obtain knowledge about that reality. These concepts are cornerstones in identifying, understanding, and describing core strategies in sociological theorizing (empiricism, substantialism, rationalism, and subjectivism). Similar philos…
When to dismiss an alternative hypothesis or theory? A risk and uncertainty perspective
In society, there is often an ‘official view’ – a mainstream account – and alternatives to this view are seen as representing a disturbance and hampering this view’s policy implementation. There is often considerable pressure to dismiss these alternatives. Reference to conspiracy theories is commonly used to ensure such dismissal. This paper discusses the issue of when an alternative hypothesis or theory can and should be dismissed. New insights …
Computer Science (27 obras) · Risk Perception and Management (24 obras) · Business (21 obras) · Risk analysis (engineering (21 obras) · Risk and Safety Analysis (20 obras) · Risk assessment (18 obras) · Risk management (17 obras) · Artificial Intelligence (11 obras) · Perspective (graphical (10 obras) · Economics (9 obras)