Hugo Valin
Biographic Data
| ID | 6457425 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Hugo Valin |
| GIVEN NAMES | Hugo |
| FAMILY NAME | Valin |
| SIGNATURE | VALIN H |
| AFFILIATIONS | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-0618-773X |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 34 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 205 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 34 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2013 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 6 |
Ambitious food system interventions required to mitigate the risk of exceeding Earth’s environmental limits
Ambitious food system interventions required to mitigate the risk of exceeding Earth’s environmental limits
Transforming the global food system is essential to avoid exceeding Earth’s environmental limits. A robust evidence base is crucial to assess the scale and combination of interventions required for a sustainable transformation. We developed a risk assessment framework, underpinned by an evidence synthesis of global food system modeling studies, to quantify the potential of individual and combined interventions to mitigate the risk of exceeding gl…
Reducing global land-use pressures with seaweed farming
Using social media audience data to analyse the drivers of low-carbon diets
Low-carbon lifestyles are key to climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and keeping the Earth in a safe operating space. Understanding the global feasibility and drivers of low-carbon lifestyles requires large scale data covering various countries, demographic and socioeconomic groups. In this study, we use the audience segmentation data from Facebook’s advertising platform to analyse the extent and drivers of interest in sustainab…
Land-based climate change mitigation potentials within the agenda for sustainable development
Even though enormous expectations for greenhouse gas mitigation in the land use sector exist at the same time worries about potential implications for sustainable development have been raised as many Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are closely tied to developments in the sector. Here we assess the implications of achieving selected key SDG indicators for Zero Hunger, Clean Water and Sanitation, Responsible Consumption and Production, and Lif…
How much multilateralism do we need? Effectiveness of unilateral agricultural mitigation efforts in the global context
Achieving climate neutrality in the European Union (EU) by 2050 will require substantial efforts across all economic sectors, including agriculture. At the same time, an ambitious unilateral EU agricultural mitigation policy is likely to have adverse effects on the sector and may have limited efficiency at global scale due to emission leakage to non-EU regions. To analyse the competitiveness of the EU's agricultural sector and potential non-CO 2 …
China’s future food demand and its implications for trade and environment
Conserving the Cerrado and Amazon biomes of Brazil protects the soy economy from damaging warming
In tropical regions, widespread loss of native forest and savanna vegetation is increasing extreme heat, particularly in agricultural regions. Using the case of rising extreme heat from lost forest and savanna vegetation in Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado regions, we modeled losses to soy production, the region’s principal economic activity. We assessed two types of extreme-heat regulation values: the value of avoided extreme-heat exposure of soy fr…
Innovation can accelerate the transition towards a sustainable food system
Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy
Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodive…
Reply to
Global hunger and climate change adaptation through international trade
Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress
Key determinants of global land-use projections
Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future …
Tackling food consumption inequality to fight hunger without pressuring the environment
A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies
Future environmental and agricultural impacts of Brazil’s Forest Code
The role of improving the enforcement of Brazil's Forest Code in reducing deforestation in the Amazon has been highlighted in many studies. However, in a context of strong political pressure for loosening environmental protections, the future impacts of a nationwide implementation of the Forest Code on both environment and agriculture remain poorly understood. Here, we present a spatially explicit assessment of Brazil's 2012 Forest Code through t…
Evaluating the effects of climate change on US agricultural systems
Agriculture is one of the sectors that is expected to be most significantly impacted by climate change. There has been considerable interest in assessing these impacts and many recent studies investigating agricultural impacts for individual countries and regions using an array of models. However, the great majority of existing studies explore impacts on a country or region of interest without explicitly accounting for impacts on the rest of the …
Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050
Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural fe…
The potential of future foods for sustainable and healthy diets
Healthy, affordable and climate-friendly diets in India
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security
To keep global warming possibly below 1.5 oC and mitigate adverse effects of climate change, agriculture, like all other sectors, will have to contribute to efforts in achieving net negative emissions by the end of the century. Cost-efficient distribution of mitigation across regions and economic sectors is typically calculated using a global uniform carbon price in climate stabilization scenarios. However, in reality such a carbon price would su…
Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways
The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West …
Assessing the land resource–food price nexus of the Sustainable Development Goals
Researchers apply an economic model to trade-offs facing the UN’s ambitious Sustainable Development Goals agenda.
The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2
Studies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives span a wide range of worlds that vary in their challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we provide background on the quantificati…
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
Narratives for the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) focusing on the land sector are presented. • Integrated Assessment Models have been applied for the SSPs to assess potential future developments for land use, greenhouse gas emissions, food provision and prices. • Model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures. • SSP-based land use pathways aim at supporting future climate r…
The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2
Studies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives span a wide range of worlds that vary in their challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we provide background on the quantificati…
Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways
The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West …
China’s future food demand and its implications for trade and environment
The potential of future foods for sustainable and healthy diets
Healthy, affordable and climate-friendly diets in India
Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress
Tackling food consumption inequality to fight hunger without pressuring the environment
Conserving the Cerrado and Amazon biomes of Brazil protects the soy economy from damaging warming
In tropical regions, widespread loss of native forest and savanna vegetation is increasing extreme heat, particularly in agricultural regions. Using the case of rising extreme heat from lost forest and savanna vegetation in Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado regions, we modeled losses to soy production, the region’s principal economic activity. We assessed two types of extreme-heat regulation values: the value of avoided extreme-heat exposure of soy fr…
Reducing global land-use pressures with seaweed farming
Biomass use, production, feed efficiencies, and greenhouse gas emissions from global livestock systems
Significance This report is unique in presenting a high-resolution dataset of biomass use, production, feed efficiencies, and greenhouse gas emissions by global livestock. This information will allow the global-change research community in enhancing our understanding of the sustainability of livestock systems and their role in food security, livelihoods and environmental sustainability.
Agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions
In this letter, we investigate the effects of crop yield and livestock feed efficiency scenarios on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture and land use change in developing countries. We analyze mitigation associated with different productivity pathways using the global partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM. Our results confirm that yield increase could mitigate some agriculture-related emissions growth over the next decades. Closing yield g…
Cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by sparing land from deforestation
Significance Could the intensification of pasture-based cattle ranching allow Brazil to protect its forests and reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while increasing its agricultural production? Would these benefits be substantially undermined by increased deforestation and GHGs triggered abroad? We model two policies for increasing cattle ranching productivity in Brazil: a tax on conventional pasture and a subsidy for semi-intensive pasture…
Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions
Significance The livestock sector contributes significantly to global warming through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. At the same time, livestock is an invaluable source of nutrition and livelihood for millions of poor people. Therefore, climate mitigation policies involving livestock must be designed with extreme care. Here we demonstrate the large mitigation potential inherent in the heterogeneity of livestock production systems. We find that e…
Land-use change trajectories up to 2050
Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research…
Climate change effects on agriculture
Significance Plausible estimates of climate change impacts on agriculture require integrated use of climate, crop, and economic models. We investigate the contribution of economic models to uncertainty in this impact chain. In the nine economic models included, the direction of management intensity, area, consumption, and international trade responses to harmonized crop yield shocks from climate change are similar. However, the magnitudes differ …
The future of food demand
Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). We compare food demand projections in 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios of socioeconomic developm…
Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems
Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adj…
Assessing the land resource–food price nexus of the Sustainable Development Goals
Researchers apply an economic model to trade-offs facing the UN’s ambitious Sustainable Development Goals agenda.
The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2
Studies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives span a wide range of worlds that vary in their challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we provide background on the quantificati…
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
Narratives for the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) focusing on the land sector are presented. • Integrated Assessment Models have been applied for the SSPs to assess potential future developments for land use, greenhouse gas emissions, food provision and prices. • Model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures. • SSP-based land use pathways aim at supporting future climate r…
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security
To keep global warming possibly below 1.5 oC and mitigate adverse effects of climate change, agriculture, like all other sectors, will have to contribute to efforts in achieving net negative emissions by the end of the century. Cost-efficient distribution of mitigation across regions and economic sectors is typically calculated using a global uniform carbon price in climate stabilization scenarios. However, in reality such a carbon price would su…
Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways
The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West …
A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies
Future environmental and agricultural impacts of Brazil’s Forest Code
The role of improving the enforcement of Brazil's Forest Code in reducing deforestation in the Amazon has been highlighted in many studies. However, in a context of strong political pressure for loosening environmental protections, the future impacts of a nationwide implementation of the Forest Code on both environment and agriculture remain poorly understood. Here, we present a spatially explicit assessment of Brazil's 2012 Forest Code through t…
Evaluating the effects of climate change on US agricultural systems
Agriculture is one of the sectors that is expected to be most significantly impacted by climate change. There has been considerable interest in assessing these impacts and many recent studies investigating agricultural impacts for individual countries and regions using an array of models. However, the great majority of existing studies explore impacts on a country or region of interest without explicitly accounting for impacts on the rest of the …
Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050
Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural fe…
The potential of future foods for sustainable and healthy diets
Healthy, affordable and climate-friendly diets in India
Key determinants of global land-use projections
Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future …
Tackling food consumption inequality to fight hunger without pressuring the environment
Innovation can accelerate the transition towards a sustainable food system
Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy
Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodive…
Reply to
Global hunger and climate change adaptation through international trade
Economics (29 works) · Natural resource economics (28 works) · Agriculture (24 works) · Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact (23 works) · Geography (22 works) · Ecology (21 works) · Environmental Science (21 works) · Business (19 works) · Climate change (17 works) · Greenhouse gas (15 works)