Page Kyle

Biographic Data

ID6568651
NAMEPage Kyle
GIVEN NAMESPage
FAMILY NAMEKyle
SIGNATUREKYLE P
AFFILIATIONSJoint Global Change Research Institute
ORCID0000-0002-1257-8358
VERIFIEDYes
TOTAL WORKS26
TOTAL CITATIONS136
AUTHOR COUNT26
EDITOR COUNT0
FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR2011
LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR2026
H-INDEX4

  • Ensuring consistency between biogeochemical planetary boundaries

    Open AccessPaul Wolfram, Hassan Niazi et al.ARTICLENature Sustainability2026References: 4

  • Bundling measures for food systems transformation: A global, multimodel assessment

    Open AccessMarina Sundiang, Thais Diniz Oliveira et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet Planetary Health2025References: 9

  • The hydrogen economy can reduce costs of climate change mitigation by up to 22

    Open AccessPaul Wolfram, Page Kyle et al.ARTICLEOne Earth2024

    In response to the urgent need to mitigate climate change via net-zero targets, many nations are renewing their interest in clean hydrogen as a net-zero energy carrier. Although clean hydrogen can be directly used in various sectors for deep decarbonization, the relatively low energy density and high production costs have raised doubts as to whether clean hydrogen development is worthwhile. Here, we improve on the GCAM model by including a more c…

  • The role and deployment timing of direct air capture in Saudi Arabia’s net-zero transition

    Open AccessYang Qiu, Gokul Iyer et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2024

    The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has pledged to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2060. Direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) is critical for the country to meet its net-zero target given its reliance on fossil fuels and limited options for carbon dioxide removal (CDR). However, the role of DACCS in KSA’s national climate change mitigation has not been studied in the literature. In this study, we aim to understand the potentia…

  • Helping the climate by replacing liquefied natural gas with liquefied hydrogen or ammonia

    Open AccessPaul Wolfram, Patrick O’Rourke et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2024

    The war in Ukraine caused Europe to more than double its imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in only one year. In addition, imported LNG remains a crucial source of energy for resource-poor countries, such as Japan, where LNG imports satisfy about a quarter of the country’s primary energy demand. However, an increasing number of countries are formulating stringent decarbonization plans. Liquefied hydrogen and liquefied ammonia coupled with car…

  • The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling

    Open AccessXin Zhao, Marshall Wise et al.ARTICLEGlobal Environmental Change2022Cited by: 1References: 11

    Researchers explore future economic and climate scenarios using global economic and integrated assessment models to understand long-term interactions between human development and global environmental changes. However, differences in trade modeling approaches are an important source of uncertainty in these types of assessments, particularly for regional projections. In this study, we modified the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to include a n…

  • Assessing the future of global energy-for-water

    Open AccessPage Kyle, Mohamad Hejazi et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2021

    This study incorporates the energy demands of water abstraction, treatment, distribution, and post-use wastewater treatment into the Global Change Analysis Model, an integrated human-Earth systems model, and analyzes a range of scenarios that estimate the future evolution of this demand of energy. The study complements research on historical and future water-for-energy, and builds on bottom-up estimates of historical energy-for-water (EFW), by in…

  • Reply to: An appeal to cost undermines food security risks of delayed mitigation

    Open AccessTomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori et al.ARTICLENature Climate Change2020

  • Integrated energy-water-land nexus planning to guide national policy: An example from Uruguay

    Open AccessZarrar Khan, Thomas Wild et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2020

    Despite broad consensus on the benefits of a nexus approach to multi-sector planning, actual implementation in government and other decision-making institutions is still rare. This study presents an approach to conducting integrated energy-water-land (EWL) planning, using Uruguay as an example. This stakeholder-driven study focuses on assessing the EWL nexus implications of actual planned policies aimed at strengthening three of Uruguay’s key exp…

  • Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress

    Open AccessWillem‐Jan van Zeist, Willem-Jan van Zeist et al.ARTICLEGlobal Environmental Change2020Cited by: 4References: 1

  • Key determinants of global land-use projections

    Open AccessElke Stehfest, Willem‐Jan van Zeist et al.ARTICLENature Communications2019

    Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future …

  • GCAM v5.1: Representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems

    Open AccessKatherine Calvin, Pralit Patel et al.ARTICLEGeoscientific Model Development2019

    This paper describes GCAM v5.1, an open source model that represents the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems. GCAM is a market equilibrium model, is global in scope, and operates from 1990 to 2100 in 5-year time steps. It can be used to examine, for example, how changes in population, income, or technology cost might alter crop production, energy demand, or water withdrawals, or how changes in one region's demand f…

  • Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

    Open AccessNeal T Graham, Mohamad Hejazi et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2019

    Future changes in climate and socioeconomic systems will drive both the availability and use of water resources, leading to evolutions in scarcity. The contributions of both systems can be quantified individually to understand the impacts around the world, but also combined to explore how the coevolution of energy-water-land systems affects not only the driver behind water scarcity changes, but how human and climate systems interact in tandem to …

  • Implementing nationally determined contributions: Building energy policies in India’s mitigation strategy

    Open AccessSha Yu, Meredydd Evans et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2018

    The Nationally Determined Contributions are allowing countries to examine options for reducing emissions through a range of domestic policies. India, like many developing countries, has committed to reducing emissions through specific policies, including building energy codes. Here we assess the potential of these sectoral policies to help in achieving mitigation targets. Collectively, it is critically important to see the potential impact of suc…

  • Regional responses to future, demand-driven water scarcity

    Open AccessRyna Cui, Ryna Yiyun Cui et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2018

    This paper explores regional response strategies to potential water scarcity. Using a model of integrated human-earth system dynamics (GCAM), we test a wide range of alternate water demand scenarios to explore regional response strategies. We create a typology that categorizes countries and basins according to their responses in electricity and agriculture to potential water scarcity. Three different categories are found. First, little response i…

  • Global economic consequences of deploying bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)

    Open AccessMatteo Muratori, Katherine Calvin et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2016

    Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered a potential source of net negative carbon emissions and, if deployed at sufficient scale, could help reduce carbon dioxide emissions and concentrations. However, the viability and economic consequences of large-scale BECCS deployment are not fully understood. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) integrated assessment model to explore the potential global and regional econ…

  • Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives

    Open AccessNico Bauer, Katherine Calvin et al.ARTICLEGlobal Environmental Change2016Cited by: 23References: 16

    Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental a…

  • The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality

    Open AccessKatherine Calvin, Ben Bond‐Lamberty et al.ARTICLEGlobal Environmental Change2016Cited by: 23References: 9

  • Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways

    Open AccessAlexander Popp, Katherine Calvin et al.ARTICLEGlobal Environmental Change2016Cited by: 83References: 5

    Narratives for the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) focusing on the land sector are presented. • Integrated Assessment Models have been applied for the SSPs to assess potential future developments for land use, greenhouse gas emissions, food provision and prices. • Model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures. • SSP-based land use pathways aim at supporting future climate r…

  • The contribution of Paris to limit global warming to 2 °C

    Open AccessGokul Iyer, Gokul C Iyer et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2015

    The international community has set a goal to limit global warming to 2 °C. Limiting global warming to 2 °C is a challenging goal and will entail a dramatic transformation of the global energy system, largely complete by 2040. As part of the work toward this goal, countries have been submitting their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, indicating their emissions reduct…

  • Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: Insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

    Open AccessChristoph Schmitz, Hans Van Meijl et al.ARTICLEAgricultural Economics2014

    Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research…

  • Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks

    Open AccessGerald C Nelson, Hugo Valin et al.ARTICLEProceedings of the National…2014

    Significance Plausible estimates of climate change impacts on agriculture require integrated use of climate, crop, and economic models. We investigate the contribution of economic models to uncertainty in this impact chain. In the nine economic models included, the direction of management intensity, area, consumption, and international trade responses to harmonized crop yield shocks from climate change are similar. However, the magnitudes differ …

  • The future of food demand: Understanding differences in global economic models

    Open AccessHugo Valin, Ronald D Sands et al.ARTICLEAgricultural Economics2014

    Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). We compare food demand projections in 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios of socioeconomic developm…

  • Sensitivity of climate mitigation strategies to natural disturbances

    Open AccessYannick Le Page, G C Hurtt et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2013

    The present and future concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on both anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of carbon. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on a progressive transition to carbon-efficient technologies to reduce industrial emissions, substantially supported by policies to maintain or enhance the terrestrial carbon stock in forests and other ecosystems. This strategy may be challenged if terrestrial se…

  • The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation

    Open AccessAllison M Thomson, Page Kyle et al.ARTICLEGlobal Environmental Change2013Cited by: 2References: 1