Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner
Biographic Data
| ID | 6569564 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner |
| GIVEN NAMES | Carl‐Friedrich |
| FAMILY NAME | Schleussner |
| SIGNATURE | SCHLEUSSNER C F |
| AFFILIATIONS | Climate Analytics |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-8471-848X |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 38 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 49 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 38 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2016 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 3 |
The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review
Due to insufficient emission reductions in recent years, it is increasingly likely that global warming will exceed the 1.5 °C temperature limit in the late 2020s or 2030s. As a result, several Earth system tipping elements could, at least temporarily, have their tipping points surpassed, posing risks of large-scale and profound structural change. Tipping does not always occur immediately upon crossing such a critical threshold. If the length of t…
Street green space is relevant but not sufficient for adapting to growing urban heat in world cities
Cities face multiple growing climate-related risks. Identifying adaptation strategies and quantifying their effectiveness and limits is hence crucial. Street green space (SGS) receives significant attention in the urban heat adaptation space due to its potential to reduce heat load and provide additional ecosystem benefits. Yet, the majority of existing studies assessing the effectiveness of SGS are either global or very local, and typically rely…
Expert retrospective on a decade of the Paris Agreement
High-income groups disproportionately contribute to climate extremes worldwide
Climate injustice persists as those least responsible often bear the greatest impacts, both between and within countries. Here we show how GHG emissions from consumption and investments attributable to the wealthiest population groups have disproportionately influenced present-day climate change. We link emissions inequality over the period 1990–2020 to regional climate extremes using an emulator-based framework. We find that two-thirds (one-fift…
The evidence gap index
Climate change impacts are already evident and projected to worsen throughout the 21st century, even with mitigation efforts. Systematic mapping is key to organizing scientific evidence and identifying gaps, but current methods lack geographical context in relation to climate impact risk. In this study, we leverage machine learning to scale up systematic mapping and use automatic geolocation to track place-based research. We then enhance conventi…
Response to Guerin et al. Comment on ’Mapping the climate risk to urban forests at city scale’
Warming of northern peatlands increases the global temperature overshoot challenge
Mapping the climate risk to urban forests at city scale
Climate change represents a threat to the performance and persistence of urban forests and the multiple benefits they provide to city dwellers. Here, we use a novel approach to identify species and areas at high risk of climate change using the city of Melbourne, Australia, as a case study. We derive a safety margin, calculated based on climatic tolerance to two extreme climate variables (maximum temperature of the warmest month, MTWM; precipitat…
Countries need to provide clarity on the role of carbon dioxide removal in their climate pledges
Countries need to provide clarity on the role of carbon dioxide removal in their climate pledges, Lamb, William F, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Grassi, Giacomo, Smith, Stephen M, Gidden, Matthew J, Geden, Oliver, Runge-Metzger, Artur, Vaughan, Naomi E, Nemet, Gregory, Johnstone, Injy, Schulte, Ingrid, Minx, Jan C
Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments
Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement goals out of reach
Addressing questions of equitable contributions to emission reductions is important to facilitate ambitious global action on climate change within the ambit of the Paris Agreement. Several large developing regions with low historical contributions to global warming have a strong moral claim to a large proportion of the remaining carbon budget (RCB). However, this claim needs to be assessed in a context where the RCB consistent with the long-term …
Neglected implications of land-use and land-cover changes on the climate-health nexus
Climate change can substantially affect temperature-related mortality and morbidity, especially under high green-house gas emission pathways. Achieving the Paris Agreement goals require not only drastic reductions in fossil fuel-based emissions but also land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC), such as reforestation and afforestation. LULCC has been mainly analysed in the context of land-based mitigation and food security. However, growing scienti…
Coastal loss and damage for small islands
Accounting for socioeconomic constraints in sustainable irrigation expansion assessments
Sustainable irrigation expansion over water limited croplands is an important measure to enhance agricultural yields and increase the resilience of crop production to global warming. While existing global assessments of irrigation expansion mainly illustrate the biophysical potential for irrigation, socioeconomic factors such as weak governance or low income, that demonstrably impede the successful implementation of sustainable irrigation, remain…
Accounting for local temperature effect substantially alters afforestation patterns
Human intervention in forested ecosystems is hoped to perform a fundamental shift within the next decade by reverting current forest loss—a major source of CO 2 emissions—to net forest gain taking up carbon and thus aiding climate change mitigation. The demanded extensive establishment of forests will change the local surface energy fluxes, and with it the local climate, in addition to competing with food and fiber production for land and water. …
Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes
Young generations are severely threatened by climate change
Machine-learning-based evidence and attribution mapping of 100,000 climate impact studies
Reply to Comment on ‘Unintentional unfairness when applying new greenhouse gas emissions metrics at country level’
This is a companion article to 2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 068001 \n \nThis is a companion article to 2019 Environ. Res. Lett. 14 114039
Pathways of climate resilience over the 21st century
The impacts of climate change are affecting human societies today. In parallel, socio-economic development has increased the capacity of countries around the global to adapt to those impacts although substantial challenges remain. Ongoing climate change will continue to result in a pressure to adapt, while socio-economic development could make it easier to do so. Countries’ effectiveness in fostering climate resilience will depend on the pace of …
Fair distributions of carbon dioxide removal obligations and implications for effective national net-zero targets
Achieving net-zero emissions at the global level, as required to limit warming to 1.5 °C, means both rapid emissions reductions across all sectors as well as a scaling-up of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). As a growing number of countries bring forward national net-zero targets, the questions of how much CDR each nation holds responsibility for, whether CDR transfers should be possible under the Paris Agreement market mechanisms, and how this might…
Loss and damage implications of sea-level rise on Small Island Developing States
Sea-level rise poses a significant threat to Small Island Developing States (SIDS) due to the concentration of people, assets, and infrastructure in coastal zones. This review assesses literature on key emerging topics in sea level rise including: the lasting impact of near-term mitigation on long-term sea-level rise; new global coastal vertical elevation data and their impact on existing sea-level rise projections; and the interaction of sea-lev…
Scenarios science needed in UNFCCC periodic review
Fair-share carbon dioxide removal increases major emitter responsibility
Uncertainty in carbon budget estimates due to internal climate variability
Remaining carbon budget specifies the cap on global cumulative CO2 emissions from the present-day onwards that would be in line with limiting global warming to a specific maximum level. In the context of the Paris Agreement, global warming is usually interpreted as the externally-forced response to anthropogenic activities and emissions, but it excludes the natural fluctuations of the climate system known as internal variability. A remaining carb…
From Paris to Makkah
The pilgrimages of Muslims to Makkah (Hajj and Umrah) is one of the largest religious gatherings in the world which draws millions of people from around 180 countries each year. Heat stress during summer has led to health impacts including morbidity and mortality in the past, which is likely to worsen due to global warming. Here we investigate the impacts of increasing heat stress during the peak summer months over Makkah at present levels of war…
Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk
Climate-related disasters are among the most societally disruptive impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Their potential impact on the risk of armed conflict is heavily debated in the context of the security implications of climate change. Yet, evidence for such climate-conflict-disaster links remains limited and contested. One reason for this is that existing studies do not triangulate insights from different methods and pay little attention …
Governance in socioeconomic pathways and its role for future adaptive capacity
Loss and damage implications of sea-level rise on Small Island Developing States
Sea-level rise poses a significant threat to Small Island Developing States (SIDS) due to the concentration of people, assets, and infrastructure in coastal zones. This review assesses literature on key emerging topics in sea level rise including: the lasting impact of near-term mitigation on long-term sea-level rise; new global coastal vertical elevation data and their impact on existing sea-level rise projections; and the interaction of sea-lev…
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming
Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C". Despite the prominence of …
Characterizing half‐a‐degree difference
The Paris Agreement long‐term global temperature goal refers to two global warming levels: well below 2°C and 1.5°C above preindustrial. Regional climate signals at specific global warming levels, and especially the differences between 1.5°C and 2°C, are not well constrained, however. In particular, methodological challenges related to the assessment of such differences have received limited attention. This article reviews alternative approaches …
Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
In order to assess future sea level rise and its societal impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present sea level rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative forcing targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for Antarctic rapid discharge from hydrofract…
Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty
Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 C and 2 C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct eff…
Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5 °C and 2 °C
Changes in the hydrological cycle are among the aspects of climate change most relevant for human systems and ecosystems. Besides trends in overall wetting or drying, changes in temporal characteristics of wetting and drying are of crucial importance in determining the climate hazard posed by such changes. This is particularly the case for tropical regions, where most precipitation occurs during the rainy season and changes in rainy season onset …
Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 °C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna
To reduce the risks of climate change, governments agreed in the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to less than 2.0 C above pre-industrial levels, with the ambition to keep warming to 1.5 C. Charting appropriate mitigation responses requires information on the costs of mitigating versus associated damages for the two levels of warming. In this assessment, a critical consideration is the impact on crop yields and yield variability i…
Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming
To support implementation of the Paris Agreement, the new HAPPI ensemble of 20 bias-corrected simulations of four climate models was used to drive two global hydrological models, WaterGAP and LPJmL, for assessing freshwater-related hazards and risks in worlds approximately 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer than pre-industrial. Quasi-stationary HAPPI simulations are better suited than transient CMIP-like simulations for assessing hazards at the two targeted …
Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks
International climate policy uses global mean temperature rise limits as proxies for societally acceptable levels of climate change. These limits are informed by risk assessments which draw upon projections of climate impacts under various levels of warming. Here we illustrate that indicators used to define limits of warming and those used to track the evolution of the Earth System under climate change are not directly comparable. Depending on th…
Inconsistencies when applying novel metrics for emissions accounting to the Paris agreement
Addressing emissions of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) is an integral part of efficient climate change mitigation and therefore an essential part of climate policy. Metrics are used to aggregate and compare emissions of short- and long-lived GHGs and need to account for the difference in both magnitude and persistence of their climatic effects. Different metrics describe different approaches and perspectives, and hence yield different numerical…
Unintentional unfairness when applying new greenhouse gas emissions metrics at country level
The 2015 Paris Agreement sets out that rapid reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are needed to keep global warming to safe levels. A new approach (known as GWP *) has been suggested to compare contributions of long- and short-lived GHGs, providing a close link between cumulative CO 2 -equivalent emissions and total warming. However, comparison factors for non-CO 2 GHGs under the GWP * metric depend on past emissions, and hence raise ques…
Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change
Clarifying characteristics of hazards and risks of climate change at 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming is important for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement. We perform and analyze large ensembles of 2 °C and 1.5 °C warming simulations. In the 2 °C runs, we find substantial increases in extreme hot days, heavy rainfalls, high streamflow and labor capacity reduction related to heat stress. For example, about half of the world’s popul…
Governance in socioeconomic pathways and its role for future adaptive capacity
Scenarios science needed in UNFCCC periodic review
Fair-share carbon dioxide removal increases major emitter responsibility
Uncertainty in carbon budget estimates due to internal climate variability
Remaining carbon budget specifies the cap on global cumulative CO2 emissions from the present-day onwards that would be in line with limiting global warming to a specific maximum level. In the context of the Paris Agreement, global warming is usually interpreted as the externally-forced response to anthropogenic activities and emissions, but it excludes the natural fluctuations of the climate system known as internal variability. A remaining carb…
From Paris to Makkah
The pilgrimages of Muslims to Makkah (Hajj and Umrah) is one of the largest religious gatherings in the world which draws millions of people from around 180 countries each year. Heat stress during summer has led to health impacts including morbidity and mortality in the past, which is likely to worsen due to global warming. Here we investigate the impacts of increasing heat stress during the peak summer months over Makkah at present levels of war…
Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk
Climate-related disasters are among the most societally disruptive impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Their potential impact on the risk of armed conflict is heavily debated in the context of the security implications of climate change. Yet, evidence for such climate-conflict-disaster links remains limited and contested. One reason for this is that existing studies do not triangulate insights from different methods and pay little attention …
Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes
Young generations are severely threatened by climate change
Machine-learning-based evidence and attribution mapping of 100,000 climate impact studies
Reply to Comment on ‘Unintentional unfairness when applying new greenhouse gas emissions metrics at country level’
This is a companion article to 2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 068001 \n \nThis is a companion article to 2019 Environ. Res. Lett. 14 114039
Pathways of climate resilience over the 21st century
The impacts of climate change are affecting human societies today. In parallel, socio-economic development has increased the capacity of countries around the global to adapt to those impacts although substantial challenges remain. Ongoing climate change will continue to result in a pressure to adapt, while socio-economic development could make it easier to do so. Countries’ effectiveness in fostering climate resilience will depend on the pace of …
Fair distributions of carbon dioxide removal obligations and implications for effective national net-zero targets
Achieving net-zero emissions at the global level, as required to limit warming to 1.5 °C, means both rapid emissions reductions across all sectors as well as a scaling-up of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). As a growing number of countries bring forward national net-zero targets, the questions of how much CDR each nation holds responsibility for, whether CDR transfers should be possible under the Paris Agreement market mechanisms, and how this might…
Loss and damage implications of sea-level rise on Small Island Developing States
Sea-level rise poses a significant threat to Small Island Developing States (SIDS) due to the concentration of people, assets, and infrastructure in coastal zones. This review assesses literature on key emerging topics in sea level rise including: the lasting impact of near-term mitigation on long-term sea-level rise; new global coastal vertical elevation data and their impact on existing sea-level rise projections; and the interaction of sea-lev…
Accounting for socioeconomic constraints in sustainable irrigation expansion assessments
Sustainable irrigation expansion over water limited croplands is an important measure to enhance agricultural yields and increase the resilience of crop production to global warming. While existing global assessments of irrigation expansion mainly illustrate the biophysical potential for irrigation, socioeconomic factors such as weak governance or low income, that demonstrably impede the successful implementation of sustainable irrigation, remain…
Accounting for local temperature effect substantially alters afforestation patterns
Human intervention in forested ecosystems is hoped to perform a fundamental shift within the next decade by reverting current forest loss—a major source of CO 2 emissions—to net forest gain taking up carbon and thus aiding climate change mitigation. The demanded extensive establishment of forests will change the local surface energy fluxes, and with it the local climate, in addition to competing with food and fiber production for land and water. …
Climate change (32 works) · Environmental Science (28 works) · Geography (21 works) · Ecology (19 works) · Climate Change Policy and Economics (16 works) · Climatology (16 works) · Economics (16 works) · Global warming (15 works) · Climate variability and models (13 works) · Geology (13 works)