Kirsten Thonicke
Biographic Data
| ID | 6569741 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Kirsten Thonicke |
| GIVEN NAMES | Kirsten |
| FAMILY NAME | Thonicke |
| SIGNATURE | THONICKE K |
| AFFILIATIONS | Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-5283-4937 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 15 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 4 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 15 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2003 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
Mapping human-nature archetypes to guide global biodiversity, food security, and land-use policy
Reconciling biodiversity conservation, food security, and sustainable agriculture at global scale requires a clear understanding of regional social-ecological opportunities and challenges. This understanding helps untap regional contributions to better achieve global policy targets, such as those framed in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). Yet previous global syntheses of social-ecological interlinkages remain limited in t…
Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries
This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary productio…
Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5 °C carbon budget over space and time
Temperature targets of the Paris Agreement limit global net cumulative emissions to very tight carbon budgets. The possibility to overshoot the budget and offset near-term excess emissions by net-negative emissions is considered economically attractive as it eases near-term mitigation pressure. While potential side effects of carbon removal deployment are discussed extensively, the additional climate risks and the impacts and damages have attract…
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios
Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes …
Modelling carbon stock and carbon sequestration ecosystem services for policy design: A comprehensive approach using a dynamic vegetation model
Ecosystem service (ES) models can only inform policy design adequately if they incorporate ecological processes. We used the Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) model, to address following questions for Mexico, Bolivia and Brazilian Amazon: (i) How different are C stocks and C sequestration quantifications under standard (when soil and litter C and heterotrophic respiration are not considered) and comprehensive (including all C stock and heter…
Can Intensification of Cattle Ranching Reduce Deforestation in the Amazon? Insights From an Agent-based Social-Ecological Model
Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (Isimip2b)
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe th…
Combined effects of climate and land-use change on the provision of ecosystem services in rice agro-ecosystems
Irrigated rice croplands are among the world's most important agro-ecosystems. They provide food for more than 3.5 billion people and a range of other ecosystem services (ESS). However, the sustainability of rice agro-ecosystems is threatened by continuing climate and land-use changes. To estimate their combined effects on a bundle of ESS, we applied the vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL to seven study areas in the Philippines and Vietnam. We …
Contrasting and interacting changes in simulated spring and summer carbon cycle extremes in European ecosystems
Climate extremes have the potential to cause extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystem functioning. However, it is neither straightforward to quantify and predict extreme ecosystem responses, nor to attribute these responses to specific climate drivers. Here, we construct a factorial experiment based on a large ensemble of process-oriented ecosystem model simulations driven by a regional climate model (12 500 model years in 1985–2010) in six Eur…
National indicators for observing ecosystem service change
Climate extremes and the carbon cycle
Extreme fire events are related to previous-year surface moisture conditions in permafrost-underlain larch forests of Siberia
Author: Forkel, Matthias et al.; Genre: Journal Article; Published online: 2012-10-31; Open Access; Title: Extreme fire events are related to previous-year surface moisture conditions in permafrost-underlain larch forests of Siberia
Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: An assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data
Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe
Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in fores…
Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model
The Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) combines process‐based, large‐scale representations of terrestrial vegetation dynamics and land‐atmosphere carbon and water exchanges in a modular framework. Features include feedback through canopy conductance between photosynthesis and transpiration and interactive coupling between these ‘fast’ processes and other ecosystem processes including resource competition, tissue turnover, pop…
Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model
The Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) combines process‐based, large‐scale representations of terrestrial vegetation dynamics and land‐atmosphere carbon and water exchanges in a modular framework. Features include feedback through canopy conductance between photosynthesis and transpiration and interactive coupling between these ‘fast’ processes and other ecosystem processes including resource competition, tissue turnover, pop…
Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe
Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in fores…
Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: An assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data
Extreme fire events are related to previous-year surface moisture conditions in permafrost-underlain larch forests of Siberia
Author: Forkel, Matthias et al.; Genre: Journal Article; Published online: 2012-10-31; Open Access; Title: Extreme fire events are related to previous-year surface moisture conditions in permafrost-underlain larch forests of Siberia
Climate extremes and the carbon cycle
National indicators for observing ecosystem service change
Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (Isimip2b)
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe th…
Combined effects of climate and land-use change on the provision of ecosystem services in rice agro-ecosystems
Irrigated rice croplands are among the world's most important agro-ecosystems. They provide food for more than 3.5 billion people and a range of other ecosystem services (ESS). However, the sustainability of rice agro-ecosystems is threatened by continuing climate and land-use changes. To estimate their combined effects on a bundle of ESS, we applied the vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL to seven study areas in the Philippines and Vietnam. We …
Contrasting and interacting changes in simulated spring and summer carbon cycle extremes in European ecosystems
Climate extremes have the potential to cause extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystem functioning. However, it is neither straightforward to quantify and predict extreme ecosystem responses, nor to attribute these responses to specific climate drivers. Here, we construct a factorial experiment based on a large ensemble of process-oriented ecosystem model simulations driven by a regional climate model (12 500 model years in 1985–2010) in six Eur…
Modelling carbon stock and carbon sequestration ecosystem services for policy design: A comprehensive approach using a dynamic vegetation model
Ecosystem service (ES) models can only inform policy design adequately if they incorporate ecological processes. We used the Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) model, to address following questions for Mexico, Bolivia and Brazilian Amazon: (i) How different are C stocks and C sequestration quantifications under standard (when soil and litter C and heterotrophic respiration are not considered) and comprehensive (including all C stock and heter…
Can Intensification of Cattle Ranching Reduce Deforestation in the Amazon? Insights From an Agent-based Social-Ecological Model
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios
Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes …
Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries
This planetary boundaries framework update finds that six of the nine boundaries are transgressed, suggesting that Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity. Ocean acidification is close to being breached, while aerosol loading regionally exceeds the boundary. Stratospheric ozone levels have slightly recovered. The transgression level has increased for all boundaries earlier identified as overstepped. As primary productio…
Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5 °C carbon budget over space and time
Temperature targets of the Paris Agreement limit global net cumulative emissions to very tight carbon budgets. The possibility to overshoot the budget and offset near-term excess emissions by net-negative emissions is considered economically attractive as it eases near-term mitigation pressure. While potential side effects of carbon removal deployment are discussed extensively, the additional climate risks and the impacts and damages have attract…
Mapping human-nature archetypes to guide global biodiversity, food security, and land-use policy
Reconciling biodiversity conservation, food security, and sustainable agriculture at global scale requires a clear understanding of regional social-ecological opportunities and challenges. This understanding helps untap regional contributions to better achieve global policy targets, such as those framed in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). Yet previous global syntheses of social-ecological interlinkages remain limited in t…
Environmental Science (14 works) · Climate change (9 works) · Ecosystem (9 works) · Climatology (7 works) · Ecology (7 works) · Biology (6 works) · Economics (6 works) · Natural resource economics (6 works) · Atmospheric sciences (5 works) · Ecology (5 works)