Iván Petrella
Biographic Data
| ID | 6716409 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Iván Petrella |
| GIVEN NAMES | Iván |
| FAMILY NAME | Petrella |
| SIGNATURE | PETRELLA I |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Warwick, Coventry, UK |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-8852-1868 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 10 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 0 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 10 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2007 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 0 |
Aggregate Skewness and the Business Cycle
We develop a data-rich measure of expected macroeconomic skewness in the U.S. economy. Expected macroeconomic skewness is strongly procyclical, mainly reflects the cyclicality in the skewness of real variables, is highly correlated with the cross-sectional skewness of firm-level employment growth, and is distinct from financial market skewness. Revisions in expected skewness lead to business cycle fluctuations nearly indistinguishable from those …
Modeling and Forecasting Macroeconomic Downside Risk
We model permanent and transitory changes of the predictive density of US GDP growth. A substantial increase in downside risk to US economic growth emerges over the last 30 years, associated with the long-run growth slowdown started in the early 2000s. Conditional skewness moves procyclically, implying negatively skewed predictive densities ahead and during recessions, often anticipated by deteriorating financial conditions. Conversely, positivel…
Commodity prices and inflation risk
This paper investigates the role of commodity price information when evaluating inflation risk. Using a model averaging approach, we provide strong evidence of in‐sample and out‐of‐sample predictive ability from commodity prices and convenience yields to inflation, establishing clear point and density forecast performance gains when incorporating disaggregated commodities price information. The resulting forecast densities are used to calculate t…
Price Dividend Ratio and Long-Run Stock Returns
In this article, we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with time-varying system matrices, where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying matrices. We use this method to study the time-varying relationship between the price dividend ratio, expected stock returns and expected dividend grow…
The Future of Liberation Theology
The Future of Liberation Theology envisions a radical new direction for Latin American liberation theology. One of a new generation of Latin American theologians, Ivan Petrella shows that despite the current dominance of 'end of history' ideology, liberation theologians need not abandon their belief that the theological rereading of Christianity must be linked to the development of 'historical projects' - models of political and economic organiza…
Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth
Using a dynamic factor model that allows for changes in both the long-run growth rate of output and the volatility of business cycles, we document a significant decline in long-run output growth in the United States. Our evidence supports the view that most of this slowdown occurred prior to the Great Recession. We show how to use the model to decompose changes in long-run growth into its underlying drivers. At low frequencies, a decline in the g…
Liberation Theology Undercover
In this article, I start from the claim that liberation theology's ultimate realization lies beyond the discipline and discourse of theology, in other spheres of knowledge and more practical domains of life. Through an elaboration of examples from diverse fields, such as urban planning and architecture, education, and health policy, I develop the concept of an “undercover liberation theologian” the theologian who leaves behind liberation theology…
Factor Demand Linkages, Technology Shocks, and the Business Cycle
This paper argues that factor demand linkages can be important for the transmission of both sectoral and aggregate shocks. We show this using a panel of highly disaggregated manufacturing sectors together with sectoral structural VARs. When sectoral interactions are explicitly accounted for, a contemporaneous technology shock to all manufacturing sectors implies a positive response in both output and hours at the aggregate level. Otherwise there …
Entries
The Cambridge Companion to Liberation Theology
Liberation theology is widely referred to in discussions of politics and religion but not always adequately understood. The second edition of this Companion brings the story of the movement's continuing importance and impact up to date. Additional essays, which complement those in the original edition, expand upon the issues by dealing with gender and sexuality and the important matter of epistemology. In the light of a more conservative ethos in…
No prominent works on this page.
The Cambridge Companion to Liberation Theology
Liberation theology is widely referred to in discussions of politics and religion but not always adequately understood. The second edition of this Companion brings the story of the movement's continuing importance and impact up to date. Additional essays, which complement those in the original edition, expand upon the issues by dealing with gender and sexuality and the important matter of epistemology. In the light of a more conservative ethos in…
Entries
Factor Demand Linkages, Technology Shocks, and the Business Cycle
This paper argues that factor demand linkages can be important for the transmission of both sectoral and aggregate shocks. We show this using a panel of highly disaggregated manufacturing sectors together with sectoral structural VARs. When sectoral interactions are explicitly accounted for, a contemporaneous technology shock to all manufacturing sectors implies a positive response in both output and hours at the aggregate level. Otherwise there …
The Future of Liberation Theology
The Future of Liberation Theology envisions a radical new direction for Latin American liberation theology. One of a new generation of Latin American theologians, Ivan Petrella shows that despite the current dominance of 'end of history' ideology, liberation theologians need not abandon their belief that the theological rereading of Christianity must be linked to the development of 'historical projects' - models of political and economic organiza…
Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth
Using a dynamic factor model that allows for changes in both the long-run growth rate of output and the volatility of business cycles, we document a significant decline in long-run output growth in the United States. Our evidence supports the view that most of this slowdown occurred prior to the Great Recession. We show how to use the model to decompose changes in long-run growth into its underlying drivers. At low frequencies, a decline in the g…
Liberation Theology Undercover
In this article, I start from the claim that liberation theology's ultimate realization lies beyond the discipline and discourse of theology, in other spheres of knowledge and more practical domains of life. Through an elaboration of examples from diverse fields, such as urban planning and architecture, education, and health policy, I develop the concept of an “undercover liberation theologian” the theologian who leaves behind liberation theology…
Price Dividend Ratio and Long-Run Stock Returns
In this article, we develop a general framework to analyze state space models with time-varying system matrices, where time variation is driven by the score of the conditional likelihood. We derive a new filter that allows for the simultaneous estimation of the state vector and of the time-varying matrices. We use this method to study the time-varying relationship between the price dividend ratio, expected stock returns and expected dividend grow…
Commodity prices and inflation risk
This paper investigates the role of commodity price information when evaluating inflation risk. Using a model averaging approach, we provide strong evidence of in‐sample and out‐of‐sample predictive ability from commodity prices and convenience yields to inflation, establishing clear point and density forecast performance gains when incorporating disaggregated commodities price information. The resulting forecast densities are used to calculate t…
Modeling and Forecasting Macroeconomic Downside Risk
We model permanent and transitory changes of the predictive density of US GDP growth. A substantial increase in downside risk to US economic growth emerges over the last 30 years, associated with the long-run growth slowdown started in the early 2000s. Conditional skewness moves procyclically, implying negatively skewed predictive densities ahead and during recessions, often anticipated by deteriorating financial conditions. Conversely, positivel…
Aggregate Skewness and the Business Cycle
We develop a data-rich measure of expected macroeconomic skewness in the U.S. economy. Expected macroeconomic skewness is strongly procyclical, mainly reflects the cyclicality in the skewness of real variables, is highly correlated with the cross-sectional skewness of firm-level employment growth, and is distinct from financial market skewness. Revisions in expected skewness lead to business cycle fluctuations nearly indistinguishable from those …
Econometrics (6 works) · Economics (6 works) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (6 works) · Macroeconomics (5 works) · Business cycle (4 works) · Monetary economics (4 works) · Finance (3 works) · Financial economics (3 works) · Liberation (3 works) · Liberation theology (3 works)