Andrew D King
Biographic Data
| ID | 6721729 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Andrew D King |
| GIVEN NAMES | Andrew D |
| FAMILY NAME | King |
| SIGNATURE | KING A D |
| AFFILIATIONS | The University of Melbourne |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-9006-5745 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 22 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 0 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 22 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2015 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 0 |
Effects of temperature overshoot amplitude on regional climate
Overshooting a global temperature target before returning back to the target using negative emissions is increasingly being discussed in light of ongoing emissions inconsistent with achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. While global temperature is widely expected to be reversible under such conditions, regional climate responses are much less well understood. We analyse results from two CMIP6 overshoot scenarios run by an ensemble of Earth …
Characterising the range and outliers in CMIP6 multi-model climate projections of extremes
Climate projections made using ensembles of model simulations typically present spatial information using ensemble-average changes. However, quantifying and understanding spread in model projections, along with building a picture of different possible climate futures across variables, is critical for meeting decision-makers’ needs. Here we explore projected ensemble ranges in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation metrics and their relati…
Attributing global impacts of local extremes to climate change for improving loss and damage estimates
The historic agreement to establish a Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage ('the Fund') at the 27th United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP) in 2022 introduced a new financial mechanism to assist countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in responding to loss and damage. The momentum on the Fund continued in 2023 at COP28 in Dubai, where the Fund's o…
European heat extremes under net-zero emissions
Projections of European heat extremes have been widely explored in the context of continued global warming. However, analyses of recent Earth system model simulations point to substantial climatic changes over multi-centennial timescales in net-zero emissions futures. Focusing on Europe, we address the gap in characterising heat extremes in long-term net-zero stabilised climates. We quantify the long-term effects of delayed mitigation on annual m…
Interdisciplinary challenges for wildfire futures
Emergence of multivariate climate change signals
The emergence of a climate change signal relative to background variability is a useful metric for understanding local changes and their consequences. Studies have identified emergent signals of climate change, particularly in temperature-based indices with weaker signals found for precipitation metrics. In this study, we adapt climate analogue methods to examine multivariate climate change emergence over the historical period. We use seasonal te…
Understanding climate changes in East Asia and Europe based on spatial climate analogs
Spatial climate analogs effectively illustrate how a location’s climate may become more similar to that of other locations from the historical period to future projections. Also, novel climates (emerging climate conditions significantly different from the past) have been analyzed as they may result in significant and unprecedented ecological and socioeconomic impacts. This study analyzes historical to future spatial climate analogs across East As…
Event attribution is not ready for a major role in loss and damage
Regional temperature extremes and vulnerability under net zero CO 2 emissions
Signatories to the Paris Agreement have pledged to keep global warming to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and preferably below 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Beyond over-shooting Paris Agreement warming levels followed by net negative emissions, achieving a state of net zero carbon dioxide emissions is required to satisfy Paris Agreement warming goals. Research on climate changes under net zero CO 2 emissions is very limited to d…
Identifying historical climate changes in Australia through spatial analogs
Spatial analogs have previously been used to communicate climate projections by comparing the future climate of a location with an analogous recent climate at a different location which is typically hotter. In this study, spatial climate analogs were computed using observational data to identify and quantify past changes. A sigma dissimilarity metric was computed to compare the recent climates of nine major Australian cities and early 20th centur…
Preparing for a post-net-zero world
Studying climate stabilization at Paris Agreement levels
Quantifying the contribution of an individual to making extreme weather events more likely
Probabilistic event attribution aims to quantify the role of anthropogenic climate change in altering the intensity or probability of extreme climate and weather events. It was originally conceived to calculate the costs associated with any increased likelihood of the meteorological event in question. However, only recently have such studies attempted to divide liability between polluting nations and ascribe a cost. Recent protests indicate a per…
Extreme rainfall in New Zealand and its association with Atmospheric Rivers
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow and elongated regions of enhanced horizontal water vapour transport. Considerable research on understanding Northern Hemisphere ARs and their relationship with extreme precipitation has shown that ARs have a strong association with heavy rainfall and flooding. While there has been very little work on ARs in the Southern Hemisphere, global climatologies suggest that ARs are equally as common in both hemispheres.…
On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change
Investigations into the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme weather events are now starting to extend into analysis of anthropogenic impacts on non-climate (e.g. socio-economic) systems. However, care needs to be taken when making this extension, because methodological choices regarding extreme weather attribution can become crucial when considering the events’ impacts. The fraction of attributable risk (FAR) method, useful in extreme…
Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5 °C and 2 °C in drying climates: A case study for Melbourne, Australia
Human-induced climate change poses a major threat to the reliable water supply in many highly populated regions. Here we combine hydrological and climate model simulations to evaluate risks to the water supply under projected shifts in the climate at the Paris Agreement warming levels. Modelling the primary surface water sources for Melbourne, Australia, we project that the risk of severe water supply shortage to the climate-dependent portion of …
The drivers of nonlinear local temperature change under global warming
How the pattern of the Earth’s surface warming will change under global warming represents a fundamental question for our understanding of the climate system with implications for regional projections. Despite the importance of this problem there have been few analyses of nonlinear local temperature change as a function of global warming. Individual climate models project nonlinearities, but drivers of nonlinear local change are poorly understood…
Embracing the complexity of extreme weather events when quantifying their likelihood of recurrence in a warming world
Global-average temperatures are a powerful metric for both long-term climate change policy, and also to measure the aggregate fluctuations in weather experienced around the world. However, here we show how the consideration of anomalies in annual temperatures at the global land-average scale, particularly during extremely hot years, tends to overestimate the perceived severity of extreme heat actually felt by local communities during these events…
Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Accelerated warming and hiatus periods in the long-term rise of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) have, in recent decades, been associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Critically, decadal climate prediction relies on the skill of state-of-the-art climate models to reliably represent these low-frequency climate variations. We undertake a systematic evaluation of the simulation of the IPO in the suite of Coupled Model Inter…
Climate extremes in Europe at 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming
There is an international effort to attempt to limit global warming to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels, however, there is a lack of quantitative analysis on the benefits of holding global warming to such a level. In this study, coupled climate model simulations are used to form large ensembles of simulated years at 1.5 C and 2 C of global warming. These ensembles are used to assess projected changes in the frequency and magnitude of European cl…
Attribution of the record high Central England temperature of 2014 to anthropogenic influences
In 2014, Central England experienced its warmest year in a record extending back to 1659. Using both state-of-the-art climate models and empirical techniques, our analysis shows a substantial and significant increase in the likelihood of record-breaking warm years, such as 2014, due to human influences on climate. With 90% confidence we find that anthropogenic forcings on the climate have increased the chances of record warm years in Central Engl…
The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes
Determining the time of emergence of climates altered from their natural state by anthropogenic influences can help inform the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change. Previous studies have examined the time of emergence of climate averages. However, at the global scale, the emergence of changes in extreme events, which have the greatest societal impacts, has not been investigated before. Based on state-of-the-art cl…
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Attribution of the record high Central England temperature of 2014 to anthropogenic influences
In 2014, Central England experienced its warmest year in a record extending back to 1659. Using both state-of-the-art climate models and empirical techniques, our analysis shows a substantial and significant increase in the likelihood of record-breaking warm years, such as 2014, due to human influences on climate. With 90% confidence we find that anthropogenic forcings on the climate have increased the chances of record warm years in Central Engl…
The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes
Determining the time of emergence of climates altered from their natural state by anthropogenic influences can help inform the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change. Previous studies have examined the time of emergence of climate averages. However, at the global scale, the emergence of changes in extreme events, which have the greatest societal impacts, has not been investigated before. Based on state-of-the-art cl…
Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Accelerated warming and hiatus periods in the long-term rise of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) have, in recent decades, been associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Critically, decadal climate prediction relies on the skill of state-of-the-art climate models to reliably represent these low-frequency climate variations. We undertake a systematic evaluation of the simulation of the IPO in the suite of Coupled Model Inter…
Climate extremes in Europe at 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming
There is an international effort to attempt to limit global warming to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels, however, there is a lack of quantitative analysis on the benefits of holding global warming to such a level. In this study, coupled climate model simulations are used to form large ensembles of simulated years at 1.5 C and 2 C of global warming. These ensembles are used to assess projected changes in the frequency and magnitude of European cl…
Embracing the complexity of extreme weather events when quantifying their likelihood of recurrence in a warming world
Global-average temperatures are a powerful metric for both long-term climate change policy, and also to measure the aggregate fluctuations in weather experienced around the world. However, here we show how the consideration of anomalies in annual temperatures at the global land-average scale, particularly during extremely hot years, tends to overestimate the perceived severity of extreme heat actually felt by local communities during these events…
Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5 °C and 2 °C in drying climates: A case study for Melbourne, Australia
Human-induced climate change poses a major threat to the reliable water supply in many highly populated regions. Here we combine hydrological and climate model simulations to evaluate risks to the water supply under projected shifts in the climate at the Paris Agreement warming levels. Modelling the primary surface water sources for Melbourne, Australia, we project that the risk of severe water supply shortage to the climate-dependent portion of …
The drivers of nonlinear local temperature change under global warming
How the pattern of the Earth’s surface warming will change under global warming represents a fundamental question for our understanding of the climate system with implications for regional projections. Despite the importance of this problem there have been few analyses of nonlinear local temperature change as a function of global warming. Individual climate models project nonlinearities, but drivers of nonlinear local change are poorly understood…
Studying climate stabilization at Paris Agreement levels
Quantifying the contribution of an individual to making extreme weather events more likely
Probabilistic event attribution aims to quantify the role of anthropogenic climate change in altering the intensity or probability of extreme climate and weather events. It was originally conceived to calculate the costs associated with any increased likelihood of the meteorological event in question. However, only recently have such studies attempted to divide liability between polluting nations and ascribe a cost. Recent protests indicate a per…
Extreme rainfall in New Zealand and its association with Atmospheric Rivers
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow and elongated regions of enhanced horizontal water vapour transport. Considerable research on understanding Northern Hemisphere ARs and their relationship with extreme precipitation has shown that ARs have a strong association with heavy rainfall and flooding. While there has been very little work on ARs in the Southern Hemisphere, global climatologies suggest that ARs are equally as common in both hemispheres.…
On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change
Investigations into the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme weather events are now starting to extend into analysis of anthropogenic impacts on non-climate (e.g. socio-economic) systems. However, care needs to be taken when making this extension, because methodological choices regarding extreme weather attribution can become crucial when considering the events’ impacts. The fraction of attributable risk (FAR) method, useful in extreme…
Preparing for a post-net-zero world
Event attribution is not ready for a major role in loss and damage
Regional temperature extremes and vulnerability under net zero CO 2 emissions
Signatories to the Paris Agreement have pledged to keep global warming to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and preferably below 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Beyond over-shooting Paris Agreement warming levels followed by net negative emissions, achieving a state of net zero carbon dioxide emissions is required to satisfy Paris Agreement warming goals. Research on climate changes under net zero CO 2 emissions is very limited to d…
Identifying historical climate changes in Australia through spatial analogs
Spatial analogs have previously been used to communicate climate projections by comparing the future climate of a location with an analogous recent climate at a different location which is typically hotter. In this study, spatial climate analogs were computed using observational data to identify and quantify past changes. A sigma dissimilarity metric was computed to compare the recent climates of nine major Australian cities and early 20th centur…
Emergence of multivariate climate change signals
The emergence of a climate change signal relative to background variability is a useful metric for understanding local changes and their consequences. Studies have identified emergent signals of climate change, particularly in temperature-based indices with weaker signals found for precipitation metrics. In this study, we adapt climate analogue methods to examine multivariate climate change emergence over the historical period. We use seasonal te…
Understanding climate changes in East Asia and Europe based on spatial climate analogs
Spatial climate analogs effectively illustrate how a location’s climate may become more similar to that of other locations from the historical period to future projections. Also, novel climates (emerging climate conditions significantly different from the past) have been analyzed as they may result in significant and unprecedented ecological and socioeconomic impacts. This study analyzes historical to future spatial climate analogs across East As…
Effects of temperature overshoot amplitude on regional climate
Overshooting a global temperature target before returning back to the target using negative emissions is increasingly being discussed in light of ongoing emissions inconsistent with achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. While global temperature is widely expected to be reversible under such conditions, regional climate responses are much less well understood. We analyse results from two CMIP6 overshoot scenarios run by an ensemble of Earth …
Characterising the range and outliers in CMIP6 multi-model climate projections of extremes
Climate projections made using ensembles of model simulations typically present spatial information using ensemble-average changes. However, quantifying and understanding spread in model projections, along with building a picture of different possible climate futures across variables, is critical for meeting decision-makers’ needs. Here we explore projected ensemble ranges in mean and extreme temperature and precipitation metrics and their relati…
Attributing global impacts of local extremes to climate change for improving loss and damage estimates
The historic agreement to establish a Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage ('the Fund') at the 27th United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP) in 2022 introduced a new financial mechanism to assist countries that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in responding to loss and damage. The momentum on the Fund continued in 2023 at COP28 in Dubai, where the Fund's o…
European heat extremes under net-zero emissions
Projections of European heat extremes have been widely explored in the context of continued global warming. However, analyses of recent Earth system model simulations point to substantial climatic changes over multi-centennial timescales in net-zero emissions futures. Focusing on Europe, we address the gap in characterising heat extremes in long-term net-zero stabilised climates. We quantify the long-term effects of delayed mitigation on annual m…
Interdisciplinary challenges for wildfire futures
Environmental Science (20 works) · Climate change (18 works) · Climatology (15 works) · Climate variability and models (14 works) · Climate model (12 works) · Geology (12 works) · Geography (11 works) · Global warming (9 works) · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations (9 works) · Ecology (8 works)