Claudia Tebaldi
Biographic Data
| ID | 6818884 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Claudia Tebaldi |
| GIVEN NAMES | Claudia |
| FAMILY NAME | Tebaldi |
| SIGNATURE | TEBALDI C |
| AFFILIATIONS | NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-9233-8903 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 20 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 0 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 20 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2004 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 0 |
Implications of climate change impacts for emission and land use scenario development
Scenarios of future emissions and land use produced by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have traditionally been developed without accounting for how climate change impacts could affect the emissions and land use trajectories themselves. This omission risks skewing our assessments of the plausible range of future emission pathways and associated Earth system changes. Beyond the salience for emission scenario development, a better integrated rep…
Predicting weather impacts on corn production in a data-limited region using a transfer learning approach
The stability of food supply and prices may depend more on annual changes in yields from year-to-year variability in weather than on longer-term average changes from changing climatic conditions. However, the absence of high-quality data on crop yields at fine spatial resolutions in many regions of the world makes it challenging to statistically model their response to interannual variability in weather patterns. Therefore, there is a need for em…
Non-parametric projections of national income distribution consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Understanding and projecting income distributions within countries and regions is important to understanding consumption trends and the distributional consequences of climate impacts and responses. Several global, country-level projections of income distribution are available but most project only the Gini coefficient (a summary statistic of the distribution) or utilize the Gini along with the assumption of a lognormal distribution. We test the l…
Is land use producing robust signals in future projections from Earth system models, all else being equal
We use six Earth system models (ESMs) run under SSP3-7.0, a scenario characterized by a relatively large land use change (LUC) over the 21st century, and under a variant of the same scenario where a significantly different pattern of LUC, taken from SSP1-2.6, was used, all else being equal. Our goal is to identify changes in climate extremes between the two scenarios that are statistically significant and robust across the ESMs. The motivation fo…
Emulating climate extreme indices
We use simple pattern scaling and time-shift to emulate changes in a set of climate extreme indices under future scenarios, and we evaluate the emulators’ accuracy. We propose an error metric that separates systematic emulation errors from discrepancies between emulated and target values due to internal variability, taking advantage of the availability of climate model simulations in the form of initial condition ensembles. We compute the error m…
Evaluating the accuracy of climate change pattern emulation for low warming targets
Global climate policy is increasingly debating the value of very low warming targets, yet not many experiments conducted with global climate models in their fully coupled versions are currently available to help inform studies of the corresponding impacts. This raises the question whether a map of warming or precipitation change in a world 1.5 C warmer than preindustrial can be emulated from existing simulations that reach higher warming targets,…
Changes in a suite of indicators of extreme temperature and precipitation under 1.5 and 2 degrees warming
Following the 2015 Paris agreement, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was tasked with assessing climate change impacts and mitigation options for a world that limits warming to 1.5 °Cina special report. To aid the scientific assessment process three low-warming ensembles were generated over the 21st century based on the Paris targets using NCAR-DOE community model, CESM1-CAM5. This study used those simulation results and computed ten …
Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015–2017
In the period 2015-2017, the Western Cape region has suffered from three consecutive years of below average rainfall-leading to a prolonged drought and acute water shortages, most prominently in the city of Cape Town. After testing that the precipitation deficit is the primary driver behind the reduced surface water availability, we undertake a multi-method attribution analysis for the meteorological drought, defined in terms of a deficit in the …
Differences, or lack thereof, in wheat and maize yields under three low-warming scenarios
The availability of climate model experiments under three alternative scenarios stabilizing at warming targets inspired by the COP21 agreements (a 1.5 °C not exceed, a 1.5 °C with overshoot and a 2.0 °C) makes it possible to assess future expected changes in global yields for two staple crops, wheat and maize. In this study an empirical model of the relation between crop yield anomalies and temperature and precipitation changes, with or without t…
Future heat waves and surface ozone
A global Earth system model is used to study the relationship between heat waves and surface ozone levels over land areas around the world that could experience either large decreases or little change in future ozone precursor emissions. The model is driven by emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors from a medium-high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0–RCP6.0) and is compared to an experiment with anthropogenic…
Reframing climate change assessments around risk
Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. We suggest three impro…
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produc…
Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing
The sensitivity of regional climate to global average radiative forcing and temperature change is important for setting global climate policy targets and designing scenarios. Setting effective policy targets requires an understanding of the consequences exceeding them, even by small amounts, and the effective design of sets of scenarios requires the knowledge of how different emissions, concentrations, or forcing need to be in order to produce su…
Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea‐level projections at a global network of tide‐gauge sites
Getting caught with our plants down
In many discussions of climate change impacts in agriculture, the large magnitudes of expected impacts toward the end of the century are used to emphasize that most of the risks are to future generations. However, this perspective misses the important fact that demand growth for food is expected to be much slower after 2050 than before it, and that the next two decades represent the bulk of growth before 2050. Thus, impacts of smaller magnitude i…
Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts
Sound policies for protecting coastal communities and assets require good information about vulnerability to flooding. Here, we investigate the influence of sea level rise on expected storm surge-driven water levels and their frequencies along the contiguous United States. We use model output for global temperature changes, a semi-empirical model of global sea level rise, and long-term records from 55 nationally distributed tidal gauges to develo…
Patterns of change
Attributing observed climate change to causes is challenging. This letter communicates the physical arguments used in attribution, and the statistical methods applied to explore to what extent different possible causes can be used to explain the recent climate records. The methods use fingerprints of climate change that are identified on the basis of the physics governing our climate system, and through the use of climate model experiments. These…
Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030
Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models. Results indicate South Asia and Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measure…
The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections
Recent coordinated efforts, in which numerous climate models have been run for a common set of experiments, have produced large datasets of projections of future climate for various scenarios. Those multi-model ensembles sample initial condition, parameter as well as structural uncertainties in the model design, and they have prompted a variety of approaches to quantify uncertainty in future climate in a probabilistic way. This paper outlines the…
More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century
A global coupled climate model shows that there is a distinct geographic pattern to future changes in heat waves. Model results for areas of Europe and North America, associated with the severe heat waves in Chicago in 1995 and Paris in 2003, show that future heat waves in these areas will become more intense, more frequent, and longer lasting in the second half of the 21st century. Observations and the model show that present-day heat waves over…
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More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century
A global coupled climate model shows that there is a distinct geographic pattern to future changes in heat waves. Model results for areas of Europe and North America, associated with the severe heat waves in Chicago in 1995 and Paris in 2003, show that future heat waves in these areas will become more intense, more frequent, and longer lasting in the second half of the 21st century. Observations and the model show that present-day heat waves over…
The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections
Recent coordinated efforts, in which numerous climate models have been run for a common set of experiments, have produced large datasets of projections of future climate for various scenarios. Those multi-model ensembles sample initial condition, parameter as well as structural uncertainties in the model design, and they have prompted a variety of approaches to quantify uncertainty in future climate in a probabilistic way. This paper outlines the…
Prioritizing Climate Change Adaptation Needs for Food Security in 2030
Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models. Results indicate South Asia and Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measure…
Patterns of change
Attributing observed climate change to causes is challenging. This letter communicates the physical arguments used in attribution, and the statistical methods applied to explore to what extent different possible causes can be used to explain the recent climate records. The methods use fingerprints of climate change that are identified on the basis of the physics governing our climate system, and through the use of climate model experiments. These…
Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts
Sound policies for protecting coastal communities and assets require good information about vulnerability to flooding. Here, we investigate the influence of sea level rise on expected storm surge-driven water levels and their frequencies along the contiguous United States. We use model output for global temperature changes, a semi-empirical model of global sea level rise, and long-term records from 55 nationally distributed tidal gauges to develo…
Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea‐level projections at a global network of tide‐gauge sites
Getting caught with our plants down
In many discussions of climate change impacts in agriculture, the large magnitudes of expected impacts toward the end of the century are used to emphasize that most of the risks are to future generations. However, this perspective misses the important fact that demand growth for food is expected to be much slower after 2050 than before it, and that the next two decades represent the bulk of growth before 2050. Thus, impacts of smaller magnitude i…
Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing
The sensitivity of regional climate to global average radiative forcing and temperature change is important for setting global climate policy targets and designing scenarios. Setting effective policy targets requires an understanding of the consequences exceeding them, even by small amounts, and the effective design of sets of scenarios requires the knowledge of how different emissions, concentrations, or forcing need to be in order to produce su…
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produc…
Reframing climate change assessments around risk
Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. We suggest three impro…
Evaluating the accuracy of climate change pattern emulation for low warming targets
Global climate policy is increasingly debating the value of very low warming targets, yet not many experiments conducted with global climate models in their fully coupled versions are currently available to help inform studies of the corresponding impacts. This raises the question whether a map of warming or precipitation change in a world 1.5 C warmer than preindustrial can be emulated from existing simulations that reach higher warming targets,…
Changes in a suite of indicators of extreme temperature and precipitation under 1.5 and 2 degrees warming
Following the 2015 Paris agreement, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was tasked with assessing climate change impacts and mitigation options for a world that limits warming to 1.5 °Cina special report. To aid the scientific assessment process three low-warming ensembles were generated over the 21st century based on the Paris targets using NCAR-DOE community model, CESM1-CAM5. This study used those simulation results and computed ten …
Anthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015–2017
In the period 2015-2017, the Western Cape region has suffered from three consecutive years of below average rainfall-leading to a prolonged drought and acute water shortages, most prominently in the city of Cape Town. After testing that the precipitation deficit is the primary driver behind the reduced surface water availability, we undertake a multi-method attribution analysis for the meteorological drought, defined in terms of a deficit in the …
Differences, or lack thereof, in wheat and maize yields under three low-warming scenarios
The availability of climate model experiments under three alternative scenarios stabilizing at warming targets inspired by the COP21 agreements (a 1.5 °C not exceed, a 1.5 °C with overshoot and a 2.0 °C) makes it possible to assess future expected changes in global yields for two staple crops, wheat and maize. In this study an empirical model of the relation between crop yield anomalies and temperature and precipitation changes, with or without t…
Future heat waves and surface ozone
A global Earth system model is used to study the relationship between heat waves and surface ozone levels over land areas around the world that could experience either large decreases or little change in future ozone precursor emissions. The model is driven by emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors from a medium-high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0–RCP6.0) and is compared to an experiment with anthropogenic…
Emulating climate extreme indices
We use simple pattern scaling and time-shift to emulate changes in a set of climate extreme indices under future scenarios, and we evaluate the emulators’ accuracy. We propose an error metric that separates systematic emulation errors from discrepancies between emulated and target values due to internal variability, taking advantage of the availability of climate model simulations in the form of initial condition ensembles. We compute the error m…
Non-parametric projections of national income distribution consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Understanding and projecting income distributions within countries and regions is important to understanding consumption trends and the distributional consequences of climate impacts and responses. Several global, country-level projections of income distribution are available but most project only the Gini coefficient (a summary statistic of the distribution) or utilize the Gini along with the assumption of a lognormal distribution. We test the l…
Is land use producing robust signals in future projections from Earth system models, all else being equal
We use six Earth system models (ESMs) run under SSP3-7.0, a scenario characterized by a relatively large land use change (LUC) over the 21st century, and under a variant of the same scenario where a significantly different pattern of LUC, taken from SSP1-2.6, was used, all else being equal. Our goal is to identify changes in climate extremes between the two scenarios that are statistically significant and robust across the ESMs. The motivation fo…
Predicting weather impacts on corn production in a data-limited region using a transfer learning approach
The stability of food supply and prices may depend more on annual changes in yields from year-to-year variability in weather than on longer-term average changes from changing climatic conditions. However, the absence of high-quality data on crop yields at fine spatial resolutions in many regions of the world makes it challenging to statistically model their response to interannual variability in weather patterns. Therefore, there is a need for em…
Implications of climate change impacts for emission and land use scenario development
Scenarios of future emissions and land use produced by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have traditionally been developed without accounting for how climate change impacts could affect the emissions and land use trajectories themselves. This omission risks skewing our assessments of the plausible range of future emission pathways and associated Earth system changes. Beyond the salience for emission scenario development, a better integrated rep…
Climate change (17 works) · Environmental Science (17 works) · Climate variability and models (14 works) · Geography (14 works) · Climatology (12 works) · Meteorology (11 works) · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics (9 works) · Computer Science (9 works) · Global warming (9 works) · Geology (7 works)