Hideo Shiogama
Biographic Data
| ID | 6819900 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Hideo Shiogama |
| GIVEN NAMES | Hideo |
| FAMILY NAME | Shiogama |
| SIGNATURE | SHIOGAMA H |
| AFFILIATIONS | National Institute for Environmental Studies |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-5476-2148 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 17 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 1 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 17 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2015 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
Narrowed uncertainty in future global temperature and remaining carbon budget
Reducing uncertainty in future temperature projections is crucial for understanding climate impacts of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and for guiding effective climate policy. This remains a complex challenge, as uncertainty in temperature projections arises from both climate and carbon-cycle feedbacks. Here, we introduce an observational constraint that integrates these feedbacks into emissions-driven simulations, reducing uncertainties in project…
Emergent constraints on future change projections of mean and extreme temperature and precipitation in the global maize harvesting area
Maize cultivation faces increasing risks from climate change, particularly because of increasing temperatures and extreme weather events. This study investigates whether the ‘hot’ Earth system models (ESMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, whose past warming trends are typically greater than the observations, tend to overestimate future temperature and precipitation changes across the global maize harvesting areas. By applyin…
Important distinctiveness of SSP3–7.0 for use in impact assessments
Uncertainty constraints on economic impact assessments of climate change simulated by an impact emulator
Since many new generation Earth system models (ESMs) have been suggested to overestimate future global warming, the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change used the constrained range of global warming instead of that in the raw ensemble. However, it is not clear how the constraints of climate change projections potentially reduce the uncertainty of impact assessments. Here, we show that the climate-related uncertainty of th…
Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period
Underestimated marine stratocumulus cloud feedback associated with overly active deep convection in models
Cloud feedback remains the largest source of uncertainty in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Many studies have attempted to narrow uncertainties in cloud feedback and ECS by proposing observable metrics with high skill at predicting future climate, referred to as emergent constraints. These constraints are often associated with clouds, convection, and circulation, and are interrelated. However, physical explanations for these connections re…
A quantitative evaluation of the issue of drought definition
Droughts are anticipated to intensify in many parts of the world due to climate change. However, the issue of drought definition, namely the diversity of drought indices, makes it difficult to compare drought assessments. This issue is widely known, but its relative importance has never been quantitatively evaluated in comparison to other sources of uncertainty. Here, encompassing three drought categories (meteorological, agricultural, and hydrol…
Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations
Future flood and drought risks have been predicted to transition from moderate to high levels at global warmings of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, respectively. However, these results were obtained by approximating the equilibrium climate using transient simulations with steadily warming. This approach was recently criticised due to the warmer global land temperature and higher mean precipitation intensities of the transient clima…
Global aridity changes due to differences in surface energy and water balance between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming
Increased aridity and drought risks are significant global concerns. However, there are few comprehensive studies on the related risks with regard to the differences between relatively weak levels of warming, including the recent targets of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) of 1.5 °C or 2 °C. The present study investigates the impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming on aridification and their non-linearity based on the…
Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change
Clarifying characteristics of hazards and risks of climate change at 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming is important for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement. We perform and analyze large ensembles of 2 °C and 1.5 °C warming simulations. In the 2 °C runs, we find substantial increases in extreme hot days, heavy rainfalls, high streamflow and labor capacity reduction related to heat stress. For example, about half of the world’s popul…
Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5 °C and 2 °C
Changes in the hydrological cycle are among the aspects of climate change most relevant for human systems and ecosystems. Besides trends in overall wetting or drying, changes in temporal characteristics of wetting and drying are of crucial importance in determining the climate hazard posed by such changes. This is particularly the case for tropical regions, where most precipitation occurs during the rainy season and changes in rainy season onset …
Magnitude and robustness associated with the climate change impacts on global hydrological variables for transient and stabilized climate states
Recent studies have assessed the impacts of climate change at specific global temperature targets using relatively short (30 year ) transient time-slice periods which are characterized by a steady increase in global mean temperature with time. The Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2b (ISIMIP2b) provides trend-preserving bias-corrected climate model datasets over six centuries for four global climate models (GCMs) which th…
Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics
This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, mor…
How do climate-related uncertainties influence 2 and 1.5 °C pathways
We investigate how uncertainties in key parameters in the carbon cycle and climate system propagate to the costs of climate change mitigation and adaptation needed to achieve the 2 and 1.5 °C targets by 2100 using a stochastic version of the simple climate model for optimization (SCM4OPT), an integrated assessment model. For the 2 °C target, we find a difference in 2100 CO 2 emission levels of 20.5 GtCO 2 (- 1.2 GtCO 2 to 19.4 GtCO 2 ), whereas t…
The value of knowledge accumulation on climate sensitivity uncertainty
In COP21 followed by the Paris Agreement, the world is now seriously planning actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions toward a "below 2 °C above preindustrial levels" future. Currently, we are still far from identifying the emission pathways to achieve this target because of the various uncertainties in both climate science and the human behavior. As a part of the ICA-RUS project, conducted by Dr. Seita Emori of the National Institute for En…
Attribution of the July–August 2013 heat event in Central and Eastern China to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
In the midsummer of 2013, Central and Eastern China (CEC) was hit by an extraordinary heat event, with the region experiencing the warmest July-August on record. To explore how human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and natural internal variability contributed to this heat event, we compare observed July-August mean surface air temperature with that simulated by climate models. We find that both atmospheric natural variability and anthropogenic f…
Climate change effects on the worst-case storm surge
Effects of climate change on the worst case scenario of a storm surge induced by a super typhoon in the present climate are investigated through the case study of Typhoon Haiyan. We present the results of our investigation on super-typhoon Haiyan by using a super high resolution (1 km grid) regional model that explicitly handles cloud microphysical processes. As the parent model, we adopted the operational weekly ensemble experiments (60 km grid)…
The value of knowledge accumulation on climate sensitivity uncertainty
In COP21 followed by the Paris Agreement, the world is now seriously planning actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions toward a "below 2 °C above preindustrial levels" future. Currently, we are still far from identifying the emission pathways to achieve this target because of the various uncertainties in both climate science and the human behavior. As a part of the ICA-RUS project, conducted by Dr. Seita Emori of the National Institute for En…
Climate change effects on the worst-case storm surge
Effects of climate change on the worst case scenario of a storm surge induced by a super typhoon in the present climate are investigated through the case study of Typhoon Haiyan. We present the results of our investigation on super-typhoon Haiyan by using a super high resolution (1 km grid) regional model that explicitly handles cloud microphysical processes. As the parent model, we adopted the operational weekly ensemble experiments (60 km grid)…
Attribution of the July–August 2013 heat event in Central and Eastern China to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions
In the midsummer of 2013, Central and Eastern China (CEC) was hit by an extraordinary heat event, with the region experiencing the warmest July-August on record. To explore how human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and natural internal variability contributed to this heat event, we compare observed July-August mean surface air temperature with that simulated by climate models. We find that both atmospheric natural variability and anthropogenic f…
Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5 °C and 2 °C
Changes in the hydrological cycle are among the aspects of climate change most relevant for human systems and ecosystems. Besides trends in overall wetting or drying, changes in temporal characteristics of wetting and drying are of crucial importance in determining the climate hazard posed by such changes. This is particularly the case for tropical regions, where most precipitation occurs during the rainy season and changes in rainy season onset …
Magnitude and robustness associated with the climate change impacts on global hydrological variables for transient and stabilized climate states
Recent studies have assessed the impacts of climate change at specific global temperature targets using relatively short (30 year ) transient time-slice periods which are characterized by a steady increase in global mean temperature with time. The Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2b (ISIMIP2b) provides trend-preserving bias-corrected climate model datasets over six centuries for four global climate models (GCMs) which th…
Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics
This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, mor…
How do climate-related uncertainties influence 2 and 1.5 °C pathways
We investigate how uncertainties in key parameters in the carbon cycle and climate system propagate to the costs of climate change mitigation and adaptation needed to achieve the 2 and 1.5 °C targets by 2100 using a stochastic version of the simple climate model for optimization (SCM4OPT), an integrated assessment model. For the 2 °C target, we find a difference in 2100 CO 2 emission levels of 20.5 GtCO 2 (- 1.2 GtCO 2 to 19.4 GtCO 2 ), whereas t…
The value of knowledge accumulation on climate sensitivity uncertainty
In COP21 followed by the Paris Agreement, the world is now seriously planning actions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions toward a "below 2 °C above preindustrial levels" future. Currently, we are still far from identifying the emission pathways to achieve this target because of the various uncertainties in both climate science and the human behavior. As a part of the ICA-RUS project, conducted by Dr. Seita Emori of the National Institute for En…
Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C will lower increases in inequalities of four hazard indicators of climate change
Clarifying characteristics of hazards and risks of climate change at 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming is important for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement. We perform and analyze large ensembles of 2 °C and 1.5 °C warming simulations. In the 2 °C runs, we find substantial increases in extreme hot days, heavy rainfalls, high streamflow and labor capacity reduction related to heat stress. For example, about half of the world’s popul…
Global aridity changes due to differences in surface energy and water balance between 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming
Increased aridity and drought risks are significant global concerns. However, there are few comprehensive studies on the related risks with regard to the differences between relatively weak levels of warming, including the recent targets of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) of 1.5 °C or 2 °C. The present study investigates the impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming on aridification and their non-linearity based on the…
Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period
Underestimated marine stratocumulus cloud feedback associated with overly active deep convection in models
Cloud feedback remains the largest source of uncertainty in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Many studies have attempted to narrow uncertainties in cloud feedback and ECS by proposing observable metrics with high skill at predicting future climate, referred to as emergent constraints. These constraints are often associated with clouds, convection, and circulation, and are interrelated. However, physical explanations for these connections re…
A quantitative evaluation of the issue of drought definition
Droughts are anticipated to intensify in many parts of the world due to climate change. However, the issue of drought definition, namely the diversity of drought indices, makes it difficult to compare drought assessments. This issue is widely known, but its relative importance has never been quantitatively evaluated in comparison to other sources of uncertainty. Here, encompassing three drought categories (meteorological, agricultural, and hydrol…
Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations
Future flood and drought risks have been predicted to transition from moderate to high levels at global warmings of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, respectively. However, these results were obtained by approximating the equilibrium climate using transient simulations with steadily warming. This approach was recently criticised due to the warmer global land temperature and higher mean precipitation intensities of the transient clima…
Uncertainty constraints on economic impact assessments of climate change simulated by an impact emulator
Since many new generation Earth system models (ESMs) have been suggested to overestimate future global warming, the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change used the constrained range of global warming instead of that in the raw ensemble. However, it is not clear how the constraints of climate change projections potentially reduce the uncertainty of impact assessments. Here, we show that the climate-related uncertainty of th…
Important distinctiveness of SSP3–7.0 for use in impact assessments
Narrowed uncertainty in future global temperature and remaining carbon budget
Reducing uncertainty in future temperature projections is crucial for understanding climate impacts of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and for guiding effective climate policy. This remains a complex challenge, as uncertainty in temperature projections arises from both climate and carbon-cycle feedbacks. Here, we introduce an observational constraint that integrates these feedbacks into emissions-driven simulations, reducing uncertainties in project…
Emergent constraints on future change projections of mean and extreme temperature and precipitation in the global maize harvesting area
Maize cultivation faces increasing risks from climate change, particularly because of increasing temperatures and extreme weather events. This study investigates whether the ‘hot’ Earth system models (ESMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, whose past warming trends are typically greater than the observations, tend to overestimate future temperature and precipitation changes across the global maize harvesting areas. By applyin…
Climate change (17 works) · Environmental Science (15 works) · Climate variability and models (13 works) · Climatology (13 works) · Climate model (11 works) · Geology (11 works) · Global warming (11 works) · Atmospheric sciences (8 works) · Ecology (7 works) · Geography (7 works)