Petr Havlík
Biographic Data
| ID | 6820395 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Petr Havlík |
| GIVEN NAMES | Petr |
| FAMILY NAME | Havlík |
| SIGNATURE | HAVLÍK P |
| AFFILIATIONS | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 43 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 590 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 43 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2010 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 8 |
Adapting forest management to climate change impacts and policy targets in the EU: Insights from the coupled GLOBIOM/G4M-i3PGmiX model
In brief
Bundling measures for food systems transformation: A global, multimodel assessment
Material substitution between coniferous, non-coniferous and recycled biomass – Impacts on forest industry raw material use and regional competitiveness
The competitive advantage of traditional forest industry regions such as North America, Russia and the EU is based largely on the production and processing of coniferous (C) biomass. However, non-coniferous (NC) and recycled (R) biomass provide cost-effective alternatives to C biomass, which have already decreased the proportion of C biomass use and which can potentially have large impacts on the future development of the global forest sector. In…
Innovation can accelerate the transition towards a sustainable food system
Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy
Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodive…
Reply to: An appeal to cost undermines food security risks of delayed mitigation
Global hunger and climate change adaptation through international trade
Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress
Key determinants of global land-use projections
Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future …
Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: A dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century
We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results for 14 different emissions species and 13 emissions sectors are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data used in CMIP6 to future trajectories using automated harmonization before being downscaled to provide higher emi…
Supplementary material to "Mapping the yields of lignocellulosic bioenergy crops from observations at the global scale"
Mapping the yields of lignocellulosic bioenergy crops from observations at the global scale
Most scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that project greenhouse gas emissions include the use of bioenergy as a means to reduce CO2 emissions or even to achieving negative emissions (together with CCS). The potential amount of CO2 that can be removed from the atmosphere depends, among others, on the yields of bioenergy crops, the land available to grow these crops and the efficiency with which CO2 produced by combustion is capture…
A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies
Future environmental and agricultural impacts of Brazil’s Forest Code
The role of improving the enforcement of Brazil's Forest Code in reducing deforestation in the Amazon has been highlighted in many studies. However, in a context of strong political pressure for loosening environmental protections, the future impacts of a nationwide implementation of the Forest Code on both environment and agriculture remain poorly understood. Here, we present a spatially explicit assessment of Brazil's 2012 Forest Code through t…
Increasing crop production in Russia and Ukraine—regional and global impacts from intensification and recultivation
Russia and Ukraine are countries with relatively large untapped agricultural potentials, both in terms of abandoned agricultural land and substantial yield gaps. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of Russian and Ukrainian crop production potentials and we analyze possible impacts of their future utilization, on a regional as well as global scale. To this end, the total amount of available abandoned land and potential yields in Russia and …
Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots
Understanding the interplay between multiple climate change risks and socioeconomic development is increasingly required to inform effective actions to manage these risks and pursue sustainable development. We calculate a set of 14 impact indicators at different levels of global mean temperature (GMT) change and socioeconomic development covering water, energy and land sectors from an ensemble of global climate, integrated assessment and impact m…
Inclusive climate change mitigation and food security policy under 1.5 °C climate goal
Climate change mitigation to limit warming to 1.5 C or well below 2 C, as suggested by the Paris Agreement, can rely on large-scale deployment of land-related measures (e.g. afforestation, or bioenergy production). This can increase food prices, and hence raises food security concerns. Here we show how an inclusive policy design can avoid these adverse side-effects. Food-security support through international aid, bioenergy tax, or domestic reall…
Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050
Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural fe…
Farming and the geography of nutrient production for human use: A transdisciplinary analysis
Background Information about the global structure of agriculture and nutrient production and its diversity is essential to improve present understanding of national food production patterns, agricultural livelihoods, and food chains, and their linkages to land use and their associated ecosystems services. Here we provide a plausible breakdown of global agricultural and nutrient production by farm size, and also study the associations between farm…
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security
To keep global warming possibly below 1.5 oC and mitigate adverse effects of climate change, agriculture, like all other sectors, will have to contribute to efforts in achieving net negative emissions by the end of the century. Cost-efficient distribution of mitigation across regions and economic sectors is typically calculated using a global uniform carbon price in climate stabilization scenarios. However, in reality such a carbon price would su…
Impact of the 2 °C target on global woody biomass use
Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context
The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West …
Assessing the land resource–food price nexus of the Sustainable Development Goals
Researchers apply an economic model to trade-offs facing the UN’s ambitious Sustainable Development Goals agenda.
Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives
Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental a…
What are the limits to oil palm expansion
Palm oil production has boomed over the last decade, resulting in an expansion of the global oil palm planting area from 10 to 17 Million hectares between 2000 and 2012. Previous studies showed that a significant share of this expansion has come at the expense of tropical forests, notably in Indonesia and Malaysia, the current production centers. Governments of developing and emerging countries in all tropical regions increasingly promote oil pal…
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview
This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible…
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
Narratives for the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) focusing on the land sector are presented. • Integrated Assessment Models have been applied for the SSPs to assess potential future developments for land use, greenhouse gas emissions, food provision and prices. • Model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures. • SSP-based land use pathways aim at supporting future climate r…
The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century
Studies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives span a wide range of worlds that vary in their challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we provide background on the quantificati…
Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change
This paper examines the development and use of scenarios as an approach to guide action in multi-level, multi-actor adaptation contexts such as food security under climate change. Three challenges are highlighted: (1) ensuring the appropriate scope for action; (2) moving beyond intervention-based decision guidance; and (3) developing long-term shared capacity for strategic planning. To overcome these challenges we have applied explorative scenari…
Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives
Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental a…
Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways
Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air …
Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context
The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West …
What are the limits to oil palm expansion
Palm oil production has boomed over the last decade, resulting in an expansion of the global oil palm planting area from 10 to 17 Million hectares between 2000 and 2012. Previous studies showed that a significant share of this expansion has come at the expense of tropical forests, notably in Indonesia and Malaysia, the current production centers. Governments of developing and emerging countries in all tropical regions increasingly promote oil pal…
Integrating livestock feeds and production systems into agricultural multi-market models: The example of Impact
The various ways in which livestock production systems can be incorporated into economic, partial-equilibrium, multi-market models are presented, and the challenges outlined. A particular focus and illustrative case is livestock feed. Foremost among the challenges is the reconciliation of scientific understanding of livestock feed requirements and production characteristics with the available national data. Another challenge is in estimating herd…
Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress
Impact of the 2 °C target on global woody biomass use
The dynamic soil organic carbon mitigation potential of European cropland
Competition for land
A key challenge for humanity is how a future global population of 9 billion can all be fed healthily and sustainably. Here, we review how competition for land is influenced by other drivers and pressures, examine land-use change over the past 20 years and consider future changes over the next 40 years. Competition for land, in itself, is not a driver affecting food and farming in the future, but is an emergent property of other drivers and pressu…
Global land-use implications of first and second generation biofuel targets
Highlighting continued uncertainty in global land cover maps for the user community
In the last 10 years a number of new global datasets have been created and new, more sophisticated algorithms have been designed to classify land cover. GlobCover and MODIS v.5 are the most recent global land cover products available, where GlobCover (300 m) has the finest spatial resolution of other comparable products such as MODIS v.5 (500 m) and GLC-2000 (1 km). This letter shows that the thematic accuracy in the cropland domain has decreased…
Farming system modelling for agri-environmental policy design: The case of a spatially non-aggregated allocation of conservation measures
Biomass use, production, feed efficiencies, and greenhouse gas emissions from global livestock systems
Significance This report is unique in presenting a high-resolution dataset of biomass use, production, feed efficiencies, and greenhouse gas emissions by global livestock. This information will allow the global-change research community in enhancing our understanding of the sustainability of livestock systems and their role in food security, livelihoods and environmental sustainability.
Cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by sparing land from deforestation
Significance Could the intensification of pasture-based cattle ranching allow Brazil to protect its forests and reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while increasing its agricultural production? Would these benefits be substantially undermined by increased deforestation and GHGs triggered abroad? We model two policies for increasing cattle ranching productivity in Brazil: a tax on conventional pasture and a subsidy for semi-intensive pasture…
Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions
Significance The livestock sector contributes significantly to global warming through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. At the same time, livestock is an invaluable source of nutrition and livelihood for millions of poor people. Therefore, climate mitigation policies involving livestock must be designed with extreme care. Here we demonstrate the large mitigation potential inherent in the heterogeneity of livestock production systems. We find that e…
Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: Insights from a global agro-economic model comparison
Changes in agricultural land use have important implications for environmental services. Previous studies of agricultural land-use futures have been published indicating large uncertainty due to different model assumptions and methodologies. In this article we present a first comprehensive comparison of global agro-economic models that have harmonized drivers of population, GDP, and biophysical yields. The comparison allows us to ask two research…
Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks
Significance Plausible estimates of climate change impacts on agriculture require integrated use of climate, crop, and economic models. We investigate the contribution of economic models to uncertainty in this impact chain. In the nine economic models included, the direction of management intensity, area, consumption, and international trade responses to harmonized crop yield shocks from climate change are similar. However, the magnitudes differ …
The future of food demand: Understanding differences in global economic models
Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). We compare food demand projections in 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios of socioeconomic developm…
Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security under climate change
This paper examines the development and use of scenarios as an approach to guide action in multi-level, multi-actor adaptation contexts such as food security under climate change. Three challenges are highlighted: (1) ensuring the appropriate scope for action; (2) moving beyond intervention-based decision guidance; and (3) developing long-term shared capacity for strategic planning. To overcome these challenges we have applied explorative scenari…
Integrating livestock feeds and production systems into agricultural multi-market models: The example of Impact
The various ways in which livestock production systems can be incorporated into economic, partial-equilibrium, multi-market models are presented, and the challenges outlined. A particular focus and illustrative case is livestock feed. Foremost among the challenges is the reconciliation of scientific understanding of livestock feed requirements and production characteristics with the available national data. Another challenge is in estimating herd…
Historical trade-offs of livestock’s environmental impacts
Human demand for animal products has risen markedly over the past 50 years with important environmental impacts. Dairy and cattle production have disproportionately contributed to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and land use, while crop demands of more intensive systems have increased fertilizer use and competition for available crop calories. At the same time, chicken and pig production has grown more rapidly than for ruminants, indicating a chan…
The dynamic soil organic carbon mitigation potential of European cropland
Assessing the land resource–food price nexus of the Sustainable Development Goals
Researchers apply an economic model to trade-offs facing the UN’s ambitious Sustainable Development Goals agenda.
Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives
Energy is crucial for supporting basic human needs, development and well-being. The future evolution of the scale and character of the energy system will be fundamentally shaped by socioeconomic conditions and drivers, available energy resources, technologies of energy supply and transformation, and end-use energy demand. However, because energy-related activities are significant sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental a…
What are the limits to oil palm expansion
Palm oil production has boomed over the last decade, resulting in an expansion of the global oil palm planting area from 10 to 17 Million hectares between 2000 and 2012. Previous studies showed that a significant share of this expansion has come at the expense of tropical forests, notably in Indonesia and Malaysia, the current production centers. Governments of developing and emerging countries in all tropical regions increasingly promote oil pal…
The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century
Studies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives span a wide range of worlds that vary in their challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we provide background on the quantificati…
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview
This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible…
Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways
Narratives for the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) focusing on the land sector are presented. • Integrated Assessment Models have been applied for the SSPs to assess potential future developments for land use, greenhouse gas emissions, food provision and prices. • Model results reflect the general storylines of the SSPs and indicate a broad range of potential land-use futures. • SSP-based land use pathways aim at supporting future climate r…
Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways
Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air …
Farming and the geography of nutrient production for human use: A transdisciplinary analysis
Background Information about the global structure of agriculture and nutrient production and its diversity is essential to improve present understanding of national food production patterns, agricultural livelihoods, and food chains, and their linkages to land use and their associated ecosystems services. Here we provide a plausible breakdown of global agricultural and nutrient production by farm size, and also study the associations between farm…
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security
To keep global warming possibly below 1.5 oC and mitigate adverse effects of climate change, agriculture, like all other sectors, will have to contribute to efforts in achieving net negative emissions by the end of the century. Cost-efficient distribution of mitigation across regions and economic sectors is typically calculated using a global uniform carbon price in climate stabilization scenarios. However, in reality such a carbon price would su…
Impact of the 2 °C target on global woody biomass use
Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways: Quantified West African food and climate futures in a global context
The climate change research community's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are a set of alternative global development scenarios focused on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. To use these scenarios as a global context that is relevant for policy guidance at regional and national levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise. In this paper, we present scenarios for West …
Economics (33 works) · Geography (30 works) · Environmental Science (28 works) · Natural resource economics (27 works) · Agriculture (23 works) · Business (18 works) · Climate change (18 works) · Ecology (18 works) · Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact (17 works) · Environmental resource management (16 works)