Paul Goodwin
Biographic Data
| ID | 723890 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Paul Goodwin |
| GIVEN NAMES | Paul |
| FAMILY NAME | Goodwin |
| SIGNATURE | GOODWIN P |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Connecticut |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-5631-6942 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 25 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 32 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 25 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1974 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2019 |
| H-INDEX | 4 |
Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios
Two experiments investigated whether individuals' forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming a best or worst case scenario depend on whether they have seen a single scenario in isolation or whether they have also seen a second scenario presenting an opposing view of the future. Normatively, scenarios should be regarded as belonging to different plausible future worlds so that the judged implications of one scenario sho…
Forecasting Process
The forecasting process refers to the activities that are used to produce, monitor and disseminate forecasts within an organization. Often the production of forecasts involves a combination of statistical methods and management judgment. Research suggests that judgment is often used excessively so that forecast accuracy is decreased. Monitoring forecasts involves measuring their accuracy and bias. Ideally, the measures used should reflect the eff…
Accuracy and bias of experts’ adjusted forecasts
The relative influence of advice from human experts and statistical methods on forecast adjustments
Decision makers and forecasters often receive advice from different sources including human experts and statistical methods. This research examines, in the context of stock price forecasting, how the apparent source of the advice affects the attention that is paid to it when the mode of delivery of the advice is identical for both sources. In Study 1, two groups of participants were given the same advised point and interval forecasts. One group w…
Decision Analysis for Management Judgment
Judgmental forecasts of time series affected by special events: Does providing a statistical forecast improve accuracy
Judgmental forecasts of time series affected by special events: Does providing a statistical forecast improve accuracy
Time series found in areas such as marketing and sales often have regular established patterns which are occasionally affected by exogenous influences, such as sales promotions. While statistical forecasting methods are adept at extrapolating regular patterns in series, judgmental forecasters have a potential advantage in that they can take into account the effect of these external influences, which may occur too infrequently for reliable statist…
La Argentina ante la guerra civil española: El Asilo Diplomático Y El Asilo Naval
The Time of the Generals: Latin American Professional Militarism in World Perspective
Théories et débats sur le racisme en Grande-Bretagne
Véronique de Rudder, Paul Goodwin, Racism in Great Britain : Theories and debates This article reviews the field of "race relations'' research in the UK since the 1950s. In contrast to France where research on racism is dominated by migration issues, the overwhelming focus in Britain is on the "race and ethnic relations" paradigm in which migration is peripheral. The most important theories and debates in the UK are surveyed, focusing chronologic…
Authoritarianism and the Crisis of the Argentine Political Economy
1. Thinking about authoritarianism in Argentina 2. Cycles of crisis and transformation in the Argentine political economy 3. The state and the 'Argentine Revolution' 4. The state-led project of capitalist restructing 5. Working-class politics and the state 6. The Cordobazo, popular resistance, and entrepreneurial reaction 7. Military reformism and the 'deepening of the Revolution' 8. The military's extrication crisis and the 'Gran Acuerdo Naciona…
The History of the South Atlantic Conflict: The War for the Malvinas
Preface The Seeds of War The World Turned Upside Down The Haig Initiatives: Mission Impossible? Deployment The Battle of May 1 The Sinking of the Cruiser A.R.A. General Belgrano The Sinking of the Destroyer HMS Sheffield Holding Out for Reinforcements and Solutions On Toward the Beachhead The Battle of San Carlos The Fight for Darwin-Goose Green The March to Fitz Roy and Mount Kent The Last Stand at Puerto Argentino Recapitulation and Food for Th…
The Caribbean after Grenada: Revolution, Conflict, and Democracy
Anglo-Argentine Commercial Relations: A Private Sector View, 1922-43
IN recent years the systems approach to Latin America's political economy has emerged largely within the categories of dependency theory. Central to this theory is the assumption that international relationships are directed by commonly recognized, pervasive, and one-way patterns of subservience and exploitation. The interaction of independent and dependent nations creates an international system in which political and economic relationships dete…
José Figueroa Alcorta: De la oligarquía a la democracia, 1898-1928
Oil and Nationalism in Argentina: A History
Paul B. Goodwin’s Reply
Paul B. Goodwin's Reply
Liberalismo y dependencia: 1852-1890
Los ferrocarriles britanicos y la U.C.R., 1916-1930
The Central Argentine Railway and the Economic Development of Argentina, 1854-1881
IT has long been obvious that the diffusion of technical knowledge has been closely identified with the rapid economic growth characteristic of the nineteenth century. Perhaps less appreciated is that technical innovation in the nineteenth century generally occurred in response to economic demands. Indeed, technological change is usually integral to the everyday processes of production and consumption. expresses something not adventitious to a na…
A Conversation with Richard M. Morse
Industria argentine y aduana, 1835-1854
British-Owned Railways in Argentina: Their Effect on Economic Nationalism, 1854-1948
The Politics of Rate-making: The British-owned Railways and the Unión Cívica Radical, 1921-1928
The accession of Hipólito Yrigoyen to the office of President of Argentina on 12 October, 1916, was the long-awaited climax to a quest for political power that had begun 25 years earlier with the founding of the Unión Cívica Radical. Since 1891 the UCR or Radical Party, as it is usually called, had been condemned to the status of an opposition party, its leaders waiting impatiently for their chance to uproot completely what they deemed to be the …
The relative influence of advice from human experts and statistical methods on forecast adjustments
Decision makers and forecasters often receive advice from different sources including human experts and statistical methods. This research examines, in the context of stock price forecasting, how the apparent source of the advice affects the attention that is paid to it when the mode of delivery of the advice is identical for both sources. In Study 1, two groups of participants were given the same advised point and interval forecasts. One group w…
Anglo-Argentine Commercial Relations: A Private Sector View, 1922-43
IN recent years the systems approach to Latin America's political economy has emerged largely within the categories of dependency theory. Central to this theory is the assumption that international relationships are directed by commonly recognized, pervasive, and one-way patterns of subservience and exploitation. The interaction of independent and dependent nations creates an international system in which political and economic relationships dete…
Accuracy and bias of experts’ adjusted forecasts
Théories et débats sur le racisme en Grande-Bretagne
Véronique de Rudder, Paul Goodwin, Racism in Great Britain : Theories and debates This article reviews the field of "race relations'' research in the UK since the 1950s. In contrast to France where research on racism is dominated by migration issues, the overwhelming focus in Britain is on the "race and ethnic relations" paradigm in which migration is peripheral. The most important theories and debates in the UK are surveyed, focusing chronologic…
The Central Argentine Railway and the Economic Development of Argentina, 1854-1881
IT has long been obvious that the diffusion of technical knowledge has been closely identified with the rapid economic growth characteristic of the nineteenth century. Perhaps less appreciated is that technical innovation in the nineteenth century generally occurred in response to economic demands. Indeed, technological change is usually integral to the everyday processes of production and consumption. expresses something not adventitious to a na…
A Conversation with Richard M. Morse
The Politics of Rate-making: The British-owned Railways and the Unión Cívica Radical, 1921-1928
The accession of Hipólito Yrigoyen to the office of President of Argentina on 12 October, 1916, was the long-awaited climax to a quest for political power that had begun 25 years earlier with the founding of the Unión Cívica Radical. Since 1891 the UCR or Radical Party, as it is usually called, had been condemned to the status of an opposition party, its leaders waiting impatiently for their chance to uproot completely what they deemed to be the …
British-Owned Railways in Argentina: Their Effect on Economic Nationalism, 1854-1948
A Conversation with Richard M. Morse
Industria argentine y aduana, 1835-1854
Los ferrocarriles britanicos y la U.C.R., 1916-1930
The Central Argentine Railway and the Economic Development of Argentina, 1854-1881
IT has long been obvious that the diffusion of technical knowledge has been closely identified with the rapid economic growth characteristic of the nineteenth century. Perhaps less appreciated is that technical innovation in the nineteenth century generally occurred in response to economic demands. Indeed, technological change is usually integral to the everyday processes of production and consumption. expresses something not adventitious to a na…
Paul B. Goodwin’s Reply
Paul B. Goodwin's Reply
Liberalismo y dependencia: 1852-1890
José Figueroa Alcorta: De la oligarquía a la democracia, 1898-1928
Oil and Nationalism in Argentina: A History
Anglo-Argentine Commercial Relations: A Private Sector View, 1922-43
IN recent years the systems approach to Latin America's political economy has emerged largely within the categories of dependency theory. Central to this theory is the assumption that international relationships are directed by commonly recognized, pervasive, and one-way patterns of subservience and exploitation. The interaction of independent and dependent nations creates an international system in which political and economic relationships dete…
The History of the South Atlantic Conflict: The War for the Malvinas
Preface The Seeds of War The World Turned Upside Down The Haig Initiatives: Mission Impossible? Deployment The Battle of May 1 The Sinking of the Cruiser A.R.A. General Belgrano The Sinking of the Destroyer HMS Sheffield Holding Out for Reinforcements and Solutions On Toward the Beachhead The Battle of San Carlos The Fight for Darwin-Goose Green The March to Fitz Roy and Mount Kent The Last Stand at Puerto Argentino Recapitulation and Food for Th…
The Caribbean after Grenada: Revolution, Conflict, and Democracy
Authoritarianism and the Crisis of the Argentine Political Economy
1. Thinking about authoritarianism in Argentina 2. Cycles of crisis and transformation in the Argentine political economy 3. The state and the 'Argentine Revolution' 4. The state-led project of capitalist restructing 5. Working-class politics and the state 6. The Cordobazo, popular resistance, and entrepreneurial reaction 7. Military reformism and the 'deepening of the Revolution' 8. The military's extrication crisis and the 'Gran Acuerdo Naciona…
The Time of the Generals: Latin American Professional Militarism in World Perspective
Théories et débats sur le racisme en Grande-Bretagne
Véronique de Rudder, Paul Goodwin, Racism in Great Britain : Theories and debates This article reviews the field of "race relations'' research in the UK since the 1950s. In contrast to France where research on racism is dominated by migration issues, the overwhelming focus in Britain is on the "race and ethnic relations" paradigm in which migration is peripheral. The most important theories and debates in the UK are surveyed, focusing chronologic…
Judgmental forecasts of time series affected by special events: Does providing a statistical forecast improve accuracy
Judgmental forecasts of time series affected by special events: Does providing a statistical forecast improve accuracy
Time series found in areas such as marketing and sales often have regular established patterns which are occasionally affected by exogenous influences, such as sales promotions. While statistical forecasting methods are adept at extrapolating regular patterns in series, judgmental forecasters have a potential advantage in that they can take into account the effect of these external influences, which may occur too infrequently for reliable statist…
La Argentina ante la guerra civil española: El Asilo Diplomático Y El Asilo Naval
Decision Analysis for Management Judgment
The relative influence of advice from human experts and statistical methods on forecast adjustments
Decision makers and forecasters often receive advice from different sources including human experts and statistical methods. This research examines, in the context of stock price forecasting, how the apparent source of the advice affects the attention that is paid to it when the mode of delivery of the advice is identical for both sources. In Study 1, two groups of participants were given the same advised point and interval forecasts. One group w…
Accuracy and bias of experts’ adjusted forecasts
Forecasting Process
The forecasting process refers to the activities that are used to produce, monitor and disseminate forecasts within an organization. Often the production of forecasts involves a combination of statistical methods and management judgment. Research suggests that judgment is often used excessively so that forecast accuracy is decreased. Monitoring forecasts involves measuring their accuracy and bias. Ideally, the measures used should reflect the eff…
Contrast effects in judgmental forecasting when assessing the implications of worst and best case scenarios
Two experiments investigated whether individuals' forecasts of the demand for products and a stock market index assuming a best or worst case scenario depend on whether they have seen a single scenario in isolation or whether they have also seen a second scenario presenting an opposing view of the future. Normatively, scenarios should be regarded as belonging to different plausible future worlds so that the judged implications of one scenario sho…
Economics (10 works) · Political science (10 works) · Art (7 works) · Computer Science (6 works) · Forecasting Techniques and Applications (6 works) · History (6 works) · Law (6 works) · Politics (6 works) · Econometrics (4 works) · Mathematics (4 works)