Michael G Morgan
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 734745 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Michael G Morgan |
| NOMBRES | Michael G |
| APELLIDO | Morgan |
| FIRMA | MORGAN M G |
| AFILIACIONES | Carnegie Mellon University |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-1384-5814 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 85 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 85 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 85 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 1981 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 5 |
Assessment of vulnerability to disruptions to the supply of semiconductors
While semiconductor supply chain vulnerabilities draw significant attention, the consequences of losing access to specific semiconductor devices remain poorly understood. We combine structured interviews with 21 semiconductor experts across six sectors with component origin analysis of an FPV drone and smartphone to assess for which devices and process nodes loss of access would be most catastrophic. Experts indicated that existing infrastructure…
Barriers to Creating a Market for Hydrogen
We analyze barriers to setting up a hydrogen market by using a PESTEL framework that examines political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal barriers. This framework is advantageous for analyzing macro-environmental factors to understand potential challenges and opportunities in creating such a market. Internationally, the framework was applied to analyzing barriers in 56 national hydrogen roadmaps, and domestically in the U.…
Public perceptions of hydrogen hubs in Southwestern Pennsylvania
With the growing interest in hydrogen as an energy carrier and the federal-level investments in the development of hydrogen hubs in the United States, public perception and understanding of hydrogen and of regional hydrogen hubs will play a key role. The tri-state region of Southwestern Pennsylvania is a prime candidate for the development of such a hub. Because most people in the region have almost no familiarity with hydrogen, a modified mental…
Environmental and health consequences of shore power for vessels calling at major ports in India
To reduce local air pollution, many ports in developed countries require berthed ships to use shore-based electricity instead of burning diesel to meet their electricity requirement for loads such as lights, cargo-handling equipment, and air conditioning. The benefits of this strategy in developing countries remain understudied. Based on government data for all major ports in India, we find that switching from high-sulfur fuel to shore power redu…
Lay Detection of Unusual Patterns in the Frequency of Hurricanes
An increase in the severity of extreme weather is arguably one of the most important consequences of climate change with immediate and potentially devastating impacts. Recent events, like Hurricane Harvey, stimulated public discourse surrounding the role of climate change in amplifying, or otherwise modifying, the patterns of such events. Within the scientific community, recent years have witnessed considerable progress on “climate attribution”—t…
Keep wind projects close? A case study of distance, culture, and cost in offshore and onshore wind energy siting
Decarbonizing intraregional freight systems with a focus on modal shift
Road freight transportation accounts for around 7% of total world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. With the appropriate incentives, energy savings and emissions reductions can be achieved by shifting freight to rail or water modes, both of which are far more efficient than road. We briefly introduce five general strategies for decarbonizing freight transportation, and then focus on the literature and data relevant to estimating the global…
A retrospective analysis of funding and focus in US advanced fission innovation
Deep decarbonization of the global energy system will require large investments in energy innovation and the deployment of new technologies. While many studies have focused on the expenditure that will be needed, here we focus on how government has spent public sector resources on innovation for a key carbon-free technology: advanced nuclear. We focus on nuclear power because it has been contributing almost 20% of total US electric generation, an…
Developing communications about CCS
To curb the risks of climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change posits that global CO2 emissions from the energy supply sector must be reduced to 90% below 2010 levels between 2040 and 2070. Electricity generation is the largest contributor to emissions from the energy supply sector. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) holds the promise of helping to reduce CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants, as part of a low-carbon portfo…
Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy
The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a …
Ecosystem Impacts of Geoengineering
Thoughts on whether government should steer a tropical cyclone if it could
Previous work suggests if it were possible to lower sea-surface temperature using wind-wave pumps, it would sometime make sense to try to reduce the wind speed of a tropical cyclone (TC) that is likely to make landfall. While currently there is no plausible strategy to steer a TC, suppose that TC landfall location could be altered and subsequent damages perhaps reduced. Here, we ask whether and when such a modification might be desirable. As a th…
Now What Do People Know About Global Climate Change? Survey Studies of Educated Laypeople
In 1992, a mental-models-based survey in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, revealed that educated laypeople often conflated global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, and appeared relatively unaware of the role of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in global warming. This study compares those survey results with 2009 data from a sample of similarly well-educated laypeople responding to the same survey instrument. Not surprisingly, follo…
An Incomplete Arc
This paper seeks to analyze the potential for violent conflict in the Republic of Vanuatu, a small island state in the South West Pacific. It examines the likelihood of state level conflict and investigates local factors which might contribute to state destabilization. It seeks to redress the relative absence of Pacific conflicts from the international discourse on conflict and conflict prevention. We argue that while Vanuatu possesses indicators…
Have we failed our neighbour
In April 2006, rioting broke out in Honiara, Solomon Islands, following the parliamentary election of Snyder Rini. Occurring almost three years after the commencement of the Australian-led Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI), the riots
Response to Sander Greenland's Critique of Bounding Analysis
Editorial in RISK ANALYSIS Vol 24 (5)
Bounding Poorly Characterized Risks
For diseases with more than one risk factor, the sum of probabilistic estimates of the number of cases caused by each individual factor may exceed the total number of cases observed, especially when uncertainties about exposure and dose response for some risk factors are high. In this study, we outline a method of bounding the fraction of lung cancer fatalities not due to specific well-studied causes. Such information serves as a "reality check" …
Expert assessment of the performance of the US system for environmental regulation
A questionnaire was developed and administered to four groups of experts in order to assess their views about the attributes of ‘an ideal regulatory system’ and determine the extent to which they believe the current US system for regulating criteria air pollutants and surface water quality conforms to that ideal. A linear multi-attribute utility score was developed for each respondent and for groups identified as: academia, government, industry, …
Risk-based decision analysis in support of precautionary policies
A decision-analytic model for avoiding a risky activity is presented. The model considers the benefit and cost of avoiding the activity, the probability that the activity is unsafe, and scientific tests or studies that could be conducted to revise the probability that the activity is unsafe. For a single decision maker, thresholds are identified for his or her current subjective probability that the activity is unsafe. These thresholds indicate w…
Risk Communication
People today must make decisions about many health, safety, and environmental risks. Nuclear power, HIV/AIDS, radon, vaccines, climate change, and emerging infectious diseases are just some issues that may face them in the news media, ballot box, or doctor's office. In order to make sound choices they need to get good information. Because their time is limited, that information has to be carefully selected and clearly presented. This book provide…
What Do People Know About Global Climate Change? 2. Survey Studies of Educated Laypeople
Drawing on results from earlier studies that used open‐ended interviews, a questionnaire was developed to examine laypeople's knowledge about the possible causes and effects of global warming, as well as the likely efficacy of possible interventions. It was administered to two well‐educated opportunity samples of laypeople. Subjects had a poor appreciation of the facts that (1) if significant global warming occurs, it will be primarily the result…
What Do People Know About Global Climate Change? 1. Mental Models
Factors associated with severity of depression and high-risk sexual behavior among persons diagnosed with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection.
Characterizing Mental Models of Hazardous Processes
Lay people's ability to respond to an environmental hazard is determined, in part, by their understanding of the physical, chemical, and biological processes that govern its creation and control. A general methodology is offered here for studying that understanding. It attempts to characterize people's mental models of a hazard—i.e., the sets of principles from which they generate predictions about its behavior. The organizing device for this met…
Uncertainty
The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty
Characterizing Mental Models of Hazardous Processes
Lay people's ability to respond to an environmental hazard is determined, in part, by their understanding of the physical, chemical, and biological processes that govern its creation and control. A general methodology is offered here for studying that understanding. It attempts to characterize people's mental models of a hazard—i.e., the sets of principles from which they generate predictions about its behavior. The organizing device for this met…
Have we failed our neighbour
In April 2006, rioting broke out in Honiara, Solomon Islands, following the parliamentary election of Snyder Rini. Occurring almost three years after the commencement of the Australian-led Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI), the riots
The Coevolution of Climate and Life
Genetic Alchemy
The Fifth Generation
Japan is now making plans for the fifth generation of computers which will enable them to establish and dominate a ''knowledge industry''. The authors explain the new knowledge technology and outline America's weak, almost nonexistent response to the Japanese challenge. Contents, abridged: It's not just the second computer revolution, it's the important one. The Japanese fifth general. The nations. The American response. Epilog, or it is hard to …
Keep wind projects close? A case study of distance, culture, and cost in offshore and onshore wind energy siting
Cigarettes
An Incomplete Arc
This paper seeks to analyze the potential for violent conflict in the Republic of Vanuatu, a small island state in the South West Pacific. It examines the likelihood of state level conflict and investigates local factors which might contribute to state destabilization. It seeks to redress the relative absence of Pacific conflicts from the international discourse on conflict and conflict prevention. We argue that while Vanuatu possesses indicators…
The Imperative of Responsibility
Computers and Privacy in the Next Decade
Space, Earth and Communication
The American People and Science Policy
Risk Analysis and Decision Processes
During the course of the writing of this book, a cultural perspective on societal decisions involving risks to the public was developed at IIASA. In the Postscript this cultural approach is described and used to explain many of the anomalies found in the four case studies. This perspective both builds upon and, to some extent, challenges the framework developed in this book to describe political decision processes
Rationality and Ritual
AAAS Professional Ethics Project
Public perceptions of hydrogen hubs in Southwestern Pennsylvania
With the growing interest in hydrogen as an energy carrier and the federal-level investments in the development of hydrogen hubs in the United States, public perception and understanding of hydrogen and of regional hydrogen hubs will play a key role. The tri-state region of Southwestern Pennsylvania is a prime candidate for the development of such a hub. Because most people in the region have almost no familiarity with hydrogen, a modified mental…
Developing communications about CCS
To curb the risks of climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change posits that global CO2 emissions from the energy supply sector must be reduced to 90% below 2010 levels between 2040 and 2070. Electricity generation is the largest contributor to emissions from the energy supply sector. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) holds the promise of helping to reduce CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants, as part of a low-carbon portfo…
Expert assessment of the performance of the US system for environmental regulation
A questionnaire was developed and administered to four groups of experts in order to assess their views about the attributes of ‘an ideal regulatory system’ and determine the extent to which they believe the current US system for regulating criteria air pollutants and surface water quality conforms to that ideal. A linear multi-attribute utility score was developed for each respondent and for groups identified as: academia, government, industry, …
Risk-based decision analysis in support of precautionary policies
A decision-analytic model for avoiding a risky activity is presented. The model considers the benefit and cost of avoiding the activity, the probability that the activity is unsafe, and scientific tests or studies that could be conducted to revise the probability that the activity is unsafe. For a single decision maker, thresholds are identified for his or her current subjective probability that the activity is unsafe. These thresholds indicate w…
World Communications
Improving Impact Assessment
The Effects on the Atmosphere of a Major Nuclear Exchange
Telecommunications and Economic Development
The Cold and the Dark
Standards and Standardization
Powerline
Computers and Privacy in the Next Decade
Health Effects of Fossil Fuel Burning
A characterization and critical discussion of models and their use in environmental policy
Computer-Based National Information Systems
This report presents the results of an overview study on the use of computer technology in national information systems and related public policy issues. The purposes of this study are
Risk and Decision-Making
Telecommunications and Productivity
Causes and Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Reduction
Risk/Benefit Analysis
The Reagan administration is intent on rolling back regulations it considers unwise to give new life to American industry, but regulations were instituted to protect individuals against long-term hazards. The authors believe these hazards must be assessed before a regulation is modified, suspended, or implemented. They point out the problems inherent in defining, perceiving, and estimating risk. Throughout, they combine theoretical discussions wi…
How Japan Innovates
AAAS Professional Ethics Project
Indoor Air Pollutants
Health Effects of Exposure to Diesel Exhaust
U.S. Industrial Competitiveness
A report by the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) that "compares the international competitiveness of the U.S. steel, electronics, and automobile industries and evaluates prospects for better integration of policies affecting industries in the United States" (p. iii)
Science, Technology and the Issues of the Eighties
Geothermal Energy
An analytic decision model for evaluating geothermal investment behavior of both resource developers and power producers is presented. Estimates are provided of the potential role of geothermal energy in the US over the next several decades, and of the relative effectiveness of incentives for accelerating geothermal development
Major Technological Risk
Rationality and Ritual
Identifying and Estimating the Genetic Impact of Chemical Mutagens
Genetic Alchemy
Acceptable Risk
Carbon Dioxide Review
The Transfer and Utilization of Technical Knowledge
Reflections on Science and the Media
The Fifth Generation
Japan is now making plans for the fifth generation of computers which will enable them to establish and dominate a ''knowledge industry''. The authors explain the new knowledge technology and outline America's weak, almost nonexistent response to the Japanese challenge. Contents, abridged: It's not just the second computer revolution, it's the important one. The Japanese fifth general. The nations. The American response. Epilog, or it is hard to …
Business (42 obras) · Political science (37 obras) · Computer Science (28 obras) · Economics (27 obras) · Engineering (27 obras) · Environmental Science (15 obras) · Risk Perception and Management (14 obras) · Law (13 obras) · Geography (12 obras) · Sociology (12 obras)