Aries A Arugay
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 738761 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Aries A Arugay |
| NOMBRES | Aries A |
| APELLIDO | Arugay |
| FIRMA | ARUGAY A A |
| AFILIACIONES | University of the Philippines Diliman |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-5839-9590 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 44 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 88 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 44 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2005 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 6 |
When the Middle East Burns, Asia Pays
When Does Decision-Making Reflect Agency? Evidence from the Rural Philippines
Capturing individual agency—the ability to set goals and act on them—is important for measuring progress towards development goals. Decision-making is often used as a proxy for agency, though there are theoretical critiques of this approach. Using unique data from the rural Philippines, this paper empirically tests the extent to which different aspects of agricultural decision-making are correlated with the Relative Autonomy Index, a measure of a…
Rules, Power, and Interests
The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by United States forces marks a watershed moment in the further erosion of rules based international order (RBIO) revealing once more the propensity of great powers to instrumentalize international law and human rights for strategic ends. For Asia, this episode is not a remote Western Hemisphere anomaly but a cautionary signal that the guardrails once thought to constrain great power behavior are…
Remorse, Resentment, & Resilience
The 2025 midterm elections in the Philippines featured a display of voter behaviour that mirrored its mixed outcomes for its democracy. This article analyses the electoral campaign and results of the national and local elections from the perspective of featured three main emotional narratives: remorse, resentment, and resilience. Despite having a majority electoral mandate, many voters exhibited remorse by refusing to support the candidates endor…
Roundtable
The Philippines in 2024
In 2024, the Philippines faced multifaceted challenges that will significantly shape its sociopolitical and economic landscape in the years to come. This year-end review focuses on three important matters marking President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s second year in office. First, it discusses the failed bid by political elites to amend the 1987 Constitution, indicating that this stands to be a divisive issue unless there is grassroots support. Second,…
The Rules‐Based International Order Under Siege
The rules-based international order (RBIO), a by-product of post-World War II multilateralism and post-Cold War liberal triumphalism, is now experiencing its most severe stress test since its inception. The global normative framework that once fostered free trade, peace, stability, and international cooperation has been steadily eroded by revisionist states and now further weakened by the return of Donald Trump to the White House. Trump 2.0 has a…
It's Way Too Complicated! Trump 2.0 and Southeast Asia
The return of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States in 2025 has heightened strategic calculations across Southeast Asia. His approach to international relations—marked by a transactional logic, personalistic leadership style, and a general disdain for the rules-based international order (RBIO)—presents both immediate and long-term challenges to the region's security architecture, economic dynamism and diplomatic engagements. Unlike …
Introduction
Games, Changes, and Fears
Rodrigo Duterte’s rise and the Marcoses’ return to power have captivated Southeast Asia watchers and the rest of the world. That the spectacle of strongman rule has allured most Filipinos is no longer in doubt, with the strong electoral mandate garnered by Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in 2022. Whether their capture of state power is in any way connected and what this portends about the country’s democratic future is a key theme marking Games, Changes, an…
Explaining populist securitization and Rodrigo Duterte's anti-establishment Philippine foreign policy
To the surprise of many, populist leader Rodrigo Duterte instigated major shifts in Philippine foreign policy. His antagonism against the United States and European Union, fascination towards the revisionist Russia and China, and disdain for international law and institutions were viewed as significant departures from the nation's orthodox stances. Drawing on Moffitt and Tormey's conception of populism as a political style, and Buzan, Wæver and d…
Australia‐Asean relations
The year of democracy's consequential elections
The agency of small states in the United States‐China rivalry
Asian Military Evolutions
Militarizing Governance
This chapter concentrates on addressing the following question: Is the Philippine military socially, politically and economically embedded to the point that civil–military relations cannot be viewed as a gap between civilian and military elements? It argues that the shift of the military’s original reformist stance favouring democratic civilian control towards a more politicized disposition can be explained by two interrelated structural factors.…
The Philippines in 2022
At the Sharp Edge of Power
Bowed, Bent, & Broken
The Philippines has historically been known to have one of the most robust and politically active civil societies in the world. With a deep affinity with democracy, civil society became a reliable bulwark against abuses of power and endemic corruption. However, it came under attack under the populist, illiberal Duterte administration (2016–2022) through intimidation, persecution, massive disinformation, and even outright violence. This article ex…
Beyond essentialism
How do disciplines such as political science, public policy, and international relations understand, adapt to, and potentially reform gendered processes of knowledge production and dissemination? And within Asia, are there special or specific aspects of this question that merit closer consideration and concern? We wanted to confront and engage with these questions regarding a particular aspect of how scholarly practices are gendered: the ways in …
A precarious regional flashpoint
The possible crisis in the Taiwan Strait is a looming regional flashpoint that could potentially drag many Asian states into an armed international conflict. Countries like the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and others might become frontline states in any militarized confrontation involving Taiwan. Beyond geographic proximity, the intensified superpower rivalry between the United States and China substantially frames the current precar…
Can democracy be defended globally
On December 9 and 10, 2021, United States President Joe Biden convened a virtual meeting of democracies worldwide. Called the Summit for Democracy, the objective of the conference is to devise ways to protect democratic governance from the threats of populism, authoritarianism, violent extremism, and others. A total of 110 countries were invited to this gathering and heads of states gave speeches and rhetorical statements in the defense and promo…
Turbulence in the international order
On February 24, 2022, the entire world witnessed possibly the most intense interstate conflict in the 21st century as Russia started its military campaign to invade Ukraine. With Putin's unilateral order, the Russian military was deployed to control the country and even institute regime change in Kyiv. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky vowed to defend his country against the Russian armed forces. With almost 2 months into this conflict, Ukra…
Crisis and opportunity
It is not a good time for the global economy. Many countries are experiencing an economic downturn due to several factors. COVID-19 remains a persistent challenge to many countries despite high vaccination rates. In Asia and beyond, a new surge of cases has been delaying the ability of economies to recover and “normalize” since early 2020. Another factor is the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war that started in February 2022. With no end in sight, the wa…
Mobilized and Polarized
Social media played a significant role in the 2022 Philippine national elections. Using various empirical sources, including an original pre-electoral survey, we argue that social media was critical in the production, transmission, and reception of election-related information and narratives that resulted in o ine and online polarization and mobilization of Filipino voters in the 2022 elections. This article discusses the role of social media in …
Polarizing Figures
Polarization does not necessarily pit left against right, rich against poor, secular against religious, or ethnicity against ethnicity. Rather than polarizing along deep social or ideological cleavages, today's democracies often polarize over the perceived abuse of power by popularly elected chief executives. We argue that such conflicts are built into the definition and design of democracy, which requires both vertical accountability (i.e., incl…
Polarization Without Poles
The Philippines' long democratic experience has been remarkably free of deeply politicized cleavages. Roman Catholicism as a hegemonic religion prevents religious polarization, ethnic identity fragmentation limits ethnic polarization, and weak parties forestall ideological or class polarization. Nevertheless, the country suffered a crisis of polarization during the short-lived Estrada presidency (1998-2001) and that of his successor, Gloria Macap…
The Philippines’ Shifting Engagement with China’s Belt and Road Initiative
The Philippines' engagement with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a case of within-country variation as it shifted from passivity to warm reception from 2016 to the present day. Under the Duterte administration, the BRI became one of the focal points of cordial relations with China, despite ongoing territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea, low public opinion of China, and the Philippines' security partnerships with the major po…
Strong Fans, Weak Campaigns
The 2016 presidential contest is widely considered as the first “social media election” in the Philippines. At the same time, it remains unclear if or how social media helped Rodrigo Duterte mobilize voters to gain victory. There are three main social media campaigning models: broadcast, grassroots, and self-actualizing. Analysis of twenty million activities and 39,942 randomly sampled comments across the official Facebook pages of key presidenti…
The Accountability Deficit in the Philippines
One of the major challenges that consolidating democracies such as the Philippines needs to address is how to combat and control the problems of corruption, abuse of power, and other forms of particularism. The absence of effective institutions and mechanisms to counter them would result in one major democratic deficit — the lack or weakness of accountability. This article attempts to expose the manifestations of the “accountability deficit” in t…
Bowed, Bent, & Broken
The Philippines has historically been known to have one of the most robust and politically active civil societies in the world. With a deep affinity with democracy, civil society became a reliable bulwark against abuses of power and endemic corruption. However, it came under attack under the populist, illiberal Duterte administration (2016–2022) through intimidation, persecution, massive disinformation, and even outright violence. This article ex…
The Philippines in 2016
Southeast Asian Affairs, first published in 1974, continues today to be required reading for not only scholars but the general public interested in in-depth analysis of critical cultural, economic and political issues in Southeast Asia. In this annual review of the region, renowned academics provide comprehensive and stimulating commentary that furthers understanding of not only the regions dynamism but also of its tensions and conflicts. It is a…
Explaining populist securitization and Rodrigo Duterte's anti-establishment Philippine foreign policy
To the surprise of many, populist leader Rodrigo Duterte instigated major shifts in Philippine foreign policy. His antagonism against the United States and European Union, fascination towards the revisionist Russia and China, and disdain for international law and institutions were viewed as significant departures from the nation's orthodox stances. Drawing on Moffitt and Tormey's conception of populism as a political style, and Buzan, Wæver and d…
Mobilized and Polarized
Social media played a significant role in the 2022 Philippine national elections. Using various empirical sources, including an original pre-electoral survey, we argue that social media was critical in the production, transmission, and reception of election-related information and narratives that resulted in o ine and online polarization and mobilization of Filipino voters in the 2022 elections. This article discusses the role of social media in …
Roundtable
Games, Changes, and Fears
Rodrigo Duterte’s rise and the Marcoses’ return to power have captivated Southeast Asia watchers and the rest of the world. That the spectacle of strongman rule has allured most Filipinos is no longer in doubt, with the strong electoral mandate garnered by Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in 2022. Whether their capture of state power is in any way connected and what this portends about the country’s democratic future is a key theme marking Games, Changes, an…
A soft power spring
Mobilizing for Accountability
The anti-Estrada campaign that culminated in the so-called People Power II last January 2001 can be viewed as a testament to the efficacy and strength of collective mobilization in the Philippines. This paper discusses the mobilization in the form of protests and other mass actions as a strategy of civil society aimed at eliciting accountability from President Estrada. Utilizing the theory of contentious politics and the different strategies of t…
Societal Accountability And Democratization In The Philippines
The multifaceted interpretation of the 2001 People Power Revolt illustrated the skepticism with regard to the progress of democratization in the Philippines. However, it is also important to view it as an event that has put the issues of accountability to the fore. It examines the concept of “societal accountability” as a response to the problems faced by the legal-institutional mechanisms of accountability. It applies this in the resignation, im…
The Accountability Deficit in the Philippines
One of the major challenges that consolidating democracies such as the Philippines needs to address is how to combat and control the problems of corruption, abuse of power, and other forms of particularism. The absence of effective institutions and mechanisms to counter them would result in one major democratic deficit — the lack or weakness of accountability. This article attempts to expose the manifestations of the “accountability deficit” in t…
Linking Security Sector Reform to Peacebuilding and Development in the Philippines
Description to be added
Mobilizing for Accountability
The anti-Estrada campaign that culminated in the so-called People Power II last January 2001 can be viewed as a testament to the efficacy and strength of collective mobilization in the Philippines. This paper discusses the mobilization in the form of protests and other mass actions as a strategy of civil society aimed at eliciting accountability from President Estrada. Utilizing the theory of contentious politics and the different strategies of t…
Policing America's Empire
Regional Security in the Asia‐Pacific
Philippines v. China The South China Sea Arbitral Award
The Philippines in 2016
Southeast Asian Affairs, first published in 1974, continues today to be required reading for not only scholars but the general public interested in in-depth analysis of critical cultural, economic and political issues in Southeast Asia. In this annual review of the region, renowned academics provide comprehensive and stimulating commentary that furthers understanding of not only the regions dynamism but also of its tensions and conflicts. It is a…
Polarizing Figures
Polarization does not necessarily pit left against right, rich against poor, secular against religious, or ethnicity against ethnicity. Rather than polarizing along deep social or ideological cleavages, today's democracies often polarize over the perceived abuse of power by popularly elected chief executives. We argue that such conflicts are built into the definition and design of democracy, which requires both vertical accountability (i.e., incl…
Fall from Grace, Descent from Power? Civil Society after Philippine Democracy’s Lost Decade
Polarization Without Poles
The Philippines' long democratic experience has been remarkably free of deeply politicized cleavages. Roman Catholicism as a hegemonic religion prevents religious polarization, ethnic identity fragmentation limits ethnic polarization, and weak parties forestall ideological or class polarization. Nevertheless, the country suffered a crisis of polarization during the short-lived Estrada presidency (1998-2001) and that of his successor, Gloria Macap…
Constitutional Performance Assessment of the 1987 Philippne Constitution
Since President Duterte was elected in 2016 on a promise of constitutional change for the Philippines, debates among politicians and citizens have centred on the question of whether the 1987 Constitution addressed the aspirations of the Philippine people and nation. Despite the Constitution’s clear intent to institutionalize democracy, equality and grounds for decentralization
Strong Fans, Weak Campaigns
The 2016 presidential contest is widely considered as the first “social media election” in the Philippines. At the same time, it remains unclear if or how social media helped Rodrigo Duterte mobilize voters to gain victory. There are three main social media campaigning models: broadcast, grassroots, and self-actualizing. Analysis of twenty million activities and 39,942 randomly sampled comments across the official Facebook pages of key presidenti…
The Resilience of Democracy
COVID-19 has not only affected the daily lives of people around the world, but it has also further contributed to the retreat of democracy worldwide. While the decline in the democratic quality of states started more than a decade ago, this debilitating pandemic has accelerated the erosion of democratic norms and processes. In attempts to control the pandemic, governments around the world have stifled civil liberties, implemented illiberal polici…
Politics, Policy, and the Pandemic
Covid-19 represents the ultimate “black swan” of our time—a catastrophic event that has put the entire world in a tailspin. With no clear in sight, this devastating pandemic that has claimed lives, paralyzed economies, and literally stopped everyone and everything in suspended animation. Politics and policy, however, have been pushed to the frontlines of this global pandemic. Responses of states and international organizations have so far reveale…
Transitions
I am writing this introduction in Manila, the Philippines—a country that has imposed one of the longest and strictest lockdowns in the world. COVID-19 has drastically affected my country in so many ways and this pandemic is the most difficult “stress-test” for governments in Asia and around the world. Scholars and policymakers are faced with the challenges of the multiple transitions to a post-pandemic world that will hopefully survive and thrive…
The Philippines’ Shifting Engagement with China’s Belt and Road Initiative
The Philippines' engagement with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a case of within-country variation as it shifted from passivity to warm reception from 2016 to the present day. Under the Duterte administration, the BRI became one of the focal points of cordial relations with China, despite ongoing territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea, low public opinion of China, and the Philippines' security partnerships with the major po…
A soft power spring
The long shadow of 9/11
It has been two decades since the 9/11 terror attacks, a critical watershed not only for the United States but also for the rest of the world. The youth of today might not have a clear idea of this pivotal event but it had far-reaching repercussions for global politics and public policy, particularly the foreign policies of states and counter-terrorism approaches of governments and international organizations. Since 9/11, the world witnessed US m…
A precarious regional flashpoint
The possible crisis in the Taiwan Strait is a looming regional flashpoint that could potentially drag many Asian states into an armed international conflict. Countries like the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and others might become frontline states in any militarized confrontation involving Taiwan. Beyond geographic proximity, the intensified superpower rivalry between the United States and China substantially frames the current precar…
Can democracy be defended globally
On December 9 and 10, 2021, United States President Joe Biden convened a virtual meeting of democracies worldwide. Called the Summit for Democracy, the objective of the conference is to devise ways to protect democratic governance from the threats of populism, authoritarianism, violent extremism, and others. A total of 110 countries were invited to this gathering and heads of states gave speeches and rhetorical statements in the defense and promo…
Turbulence in the international order
On February 24, 2022, the entire world witnessed possibly the most intense interstate conflict in the 21st century as Russia started its military campaign to invade Ukraine. With Putin's unilateral order, the Russian military was deployed to control the country and even institute regime change in Kyiv. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky vowed to defend his country against the Russian armed forces. With almost 2 months into this conflict, Ukra…
Crisis and opportunity
It is not a good time for the global economy. Many countries are experiencing an economic downturn due to several factors. COVID-19 remains a persistent challenge to many countries despite high vaccination rates. In Asia and beyond, a new surge of cases has been delaying the ability of economies to recover and “normalize” since early 2020. Another factor is the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war that started in February 2022. With no end in sight, the wa…
Mobilized and Polarized
Social media played a significant role in the 2022 Philippine national elections. Using various empirical sources, including an original pre-electoral survey, we argue that social media was critical in the production, transmission, and reception of election-related information and narratives that resulted in o ine and online polarization and mobilization of Filipino voters in the 2022 elections. This article discusses the role of social media in …
Asian Military Evolutions
Political science (37 obras) · Law (28 obras) · Politics (28 obras) · Law (23 obras) · Sociology (22 obras) · Philippine History and Culture (19 obras) · Political economy (15 obras) · Asian Studies and History (13 obras) · Democracy (13 obras) · Economics (13 obras)