John Michael Carey
Biographic Data
| ID | 74100 |
|---|---|
| NAME | John Michael Carey |
| GIVEN NAMES | John Michael |
| FAMILY NAME | Carey |
| SIGNATURE | CAREY J M |
| AFFILIATIONS | Dartmouth College |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-1426-1565 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 76 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 2505 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 75 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 1 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1966 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 14 |
The Narrow Reach of Targeted Corrections: No Impact on Broader Beliefs About Election Integrity
Losing predicts perceptions that elections were decided by fraud, but margin of loss and candidate race do not
Which factors cause citizens to think that an election was determined by fraud? Fraud beliefs have been shown to be more common among supporters of losing candidates. In the current U.S. context, fraud beliefs are also higher among Republicans than Democrats. However, we know less about the roles of electoral margin and candidate race. Beliefs that candidates won due to fraud might be more likely in closely contested elections, where small shifts…
Expert Bias and Democratic Erosion: Assessing Expert Perceptions of Contemporary American Democracy
In an important contribution to scholarship on measuring democratic performance, Little and Meng suggest that bias among expert coders accounts for erosion in ratings of democratic quality and performance observed in recent years. Drawing on 19 waves of survey data on US democracy from academic experts and from the public collected by Bright Line Watch (BLW), this study looks for but does not find manifestations of the type of expert bias that Li…
Great for Constitution Writing but an Obstacle to Democratic Consolidation: The Ephemeral Value of the Hare Quota Formula in Tunisia’s Parliamentary Elections
The Hare Quota-Largest Remainders (HQLR) formula promoted consensus-building during Tunisia's constitution-writing process and in the new democratic regime's first years but it is now an obstacle to democratic consolidation. HQLR discourages the development of a tractable partisan choice set – one large enough to afford voters meaningfully distinct options but not so large as to be cognitively overwhelming – and fosters party fragmentation in par…
Who will defend democracy? Evaluating tradeoffs in candidate support among partisan donors and voters
Scholars and pundits fear that the American public’s commitment to democracy is declining and that citizens are willing to embrace candidates who would trample democratic principles. We examine whether violations of those principles generate resistance from voters and/or top campaign donors and whether such resistance extends across partisan lines. In a conjoint survey experiment, we investigate how regular Americans and donor elites trade off pa…
The Human Touch: Our Part in the Creation of the Universe: Michael Frayn, 2006
This chapter talks about Michael Frayn's new book about time and causality, which are considered victims of his erudite, imaginative, funny and dazzlingly clever philosophical inquiry. Frayn unbolts the fabric of the universe and things that most are mostly regarded as certainties, such as the laws of science and the dependability of logic, that vanish like smoke. It points out that scientific laws are human artefacts, with no real existence outs…
Partisanship Unmasked? The Role of Politics and Social Norms in Covid-19 Mask-Wearing Behavior
Public health officials have faced resistance in their efforts to promote mask-wearing to counter the spread of COVID-19. One approach to promoting behavior change is to alert people to the fact that a behavior is common (a descriptive norm). However, partisan differences in pandemic mitigation behavior mean that Americans may be especially (in)sensitive to information about behavioral norms depending on the party affiliation of the group in ques…
Disfavor or Favor? Assessing the Valence of White Americans’ Racial Attitudes
When individuals’ racial attitudes are associated with their judgments related to race — for example, when people with more negative attitudes toward Blacks are less likely to vote for a Black political candidate — existing studies routinely interpret it as evidence of prejudice against minorities. But theoretically, such associations can represent favoring minorities, disfavoring them, or a combination of both. We provide a conceptual framework …
The Effect of Electoral Inversions on Democratic Legitimacy: Evidence from the United States
When a party or candidate loses the popular vote but still wins the election, do voters view the winner as legitimate? This scenario, known as an electoral inversion , describes the winners of two of the last six presidential elections in the United States. We report results from two experiments testing the effect of inversions on democratic legitimacy in the US context. Our results indicate that inversions significantly decrease the perceived le…
The ephemeral effects of fact-checks on Covid-19 misperceptions in the United States, Great Britain and Canada
Student Attitudes Toward Campus Diversity at the U.S. Naval Academy: Evidence From Conjoint Survey Experiments
Although the value of diversity—in terms of race, ethnicity, gender, and socioeconomic status—to the U.S. military has been subject to debate, preferences for diversity at educational institutions for the military officers are rarely examined systematically. To address this, we investigate whether midshipmen at the U.S. Naval Academy favor prioritizing diversity in student admissions and faculty recruitment using conjoint analysis, a method suite…
Who Believes in Conspiracy Theories in Venezuela
Conspiracy theories are central to political discourse in Venezuela and are widely supported. In the Americas Barometer Venezuela survey from 2016 to 2017, 54 percent of respondents expressed agreement for at least one of three political conspiracy narratives unsupported by evidence. Political loyalties to Chavismo or to the anti-Chavista opposition drive much conspiracy theory belief, but not all. Politically motivated reasoning pushes some citi…
Searching for Bright Lines in the Trump Presidency
Is American democracy under threat? The question is more prominent in political debate now than at any time in recent memory. However, it is also too blunt; there is widespread recognition that democracy is multifaceted and that backsliding, when it occurs, tends to be piecemeal. To address these concerns, we provide original data from surveys of political science experts and the public measuring the perceived importance and performance of U.S. d…
Electoral System Design in New Democracies
Elections in the wake of dramatic transitions from authoritarian regimes to democracy may confront voters with choices that are unattractive or bewildering, or both. This chapter examines the conditions that produce tractable sets of party options for voters, presents cross-national data on the choice sets and competitiveness in elections after dramatic transitions, and examines how the electoral formula used in proportional elections can affect …
Who wants to hire a more diverse faculty? A conjoint analysis of faculty and student preferences for gender and racial/ethnic diversity
What explains the scarcity of women and under-represented minorities among university faculty relative to their share of Ph.D. recipients? Among many potential explanations, we focus on the “demand” side of faculty diversity. Using fully randomized conjoint analysis, we explore patterns of support for, and resistance to, the hiring of faculty candidates from different social groups at two large public universities in the U.S. We find that faculty…
Electoral Formula and Fragmentation in Hong Kong
The directly elected representatives to Hong Kong's Legislative Council are chosen by list proportional representation (PR) using the Hare Quota and Largest Remainders (HQLR) formula. This formula rewards political alliances of small to moderate size and discourages broader unions. Hong Kong's political leaders have responded to those incentives by fragmenting their electoral alliances rather than expanding them. The level of list fragmentation o…
Compulsory Voting and Income Inequality: Evidence for Lijphart's Proposition from Venezuela
What difference does it make if the state makes people vote? The question is central to normative debates about the rights and duties of citizens in a democracy, and to contemporary policy debates in a number of Latin American countries over what actions states should take to encourage electoral participation. Focusing on a rare case of abolishing compulsory voting in Venezuela, this article shows that not forcing people to vote yielded a more un…
An inflated view of the facts? How preferences and predispositions shape conspiracy beliefs about the Deflategate scandal
Beliefs in conspiracy theories about controversial issues are often strongly influenced by people’s existing beliefs and attitudes. We leverage a prominent football-related controversy – the US National Football League’s “Deflategate” scandal – to investigate how factual perceptions and conspiracy beliefs vary by fan loyalties to sports teams. Using an original survey sample, we explore two key drivers of conspiratorial beliefs about the scandal.…
Malapportionment and Ideological Bias in Chilean Electoral Districts
In 2015, Chile fundamentally reformed the electoral system it had used since 1989. The old system was characterized by high levels of malapportionment, or differences across districts in the ratios of voters to representatives. In the first elections after redemocratization, malapportionment favored the ideological right, but elections since 2000 have yielded no evidence that malapportionment produced ideological bias. The new, postreform elector…
District magnitude and representation of the majority’s preferences: A comment and reinterpretation
Between Science and Engineering: Reflections on the Apsa Presidential Task Force on Political Science, Electoral Rules, and Democratic Governance
Political scientists have contributed to the world of electoral systems asscientistsand asengineers. Taking stock of recent scientific research, we show that context modifies the effects of electoral rules on political outcomes inspecificandsystematicways. We explore how electoral rules shape the inclusion of women and minorities, the depth and nature of political competition, and patterns of redistribution and regulation, and we consider institu…
Between Science and Engineering: Reflections on the Apsa Presidential Task Force on Political Science, Electoral Rules, and Democratic Governance
Political scientists have contributed to the world of electoral systems as scientists and as engineers. Taking stock of recent scientific research, we show that context modifies the effects of electoral rules on political outcomes in specific and systematic ways. We explore how electoral rules shape the inclusion of women and minorities, the depth and nature of political competition, and patterns of redistribution and regulation, and we consider …
Neil Xavier O'Donoghue. The Eucharist in Pre-Norman Ireland
F. E. Warren's monumental The Liturgy and Ritual of the Celtic Church, first published in 1881, is a landmark of scholarship that has yet to be superseded—something clearly recognized by Neil Xavier O'Donoghue when he had Warren's work reprinted in 2010. Much work has been done, however, and many important insights have been gained, in the generations that have passed since Warren wrote. O'Donoghue has sought to bring these developments together …
Debating Electoral Systems: Getting Elections Wrong
In their response to Timothy Meisburger’s essay, Andrew Reynolds and John M. Carey argue that the weight of the evidence—from nations actually going through democratic change, as well as from the scholarly literature that tries to understand such change—points to the conclusion that proportional systems, while not solving the all the problems by any means, are a better option than majoritarian systems in most contexts
Comparing the Arab Revolts: The Impact of Election Systems
Among their other effects, the seismic political events of late 2010 and early 2011 have set off a wave of actual and proposed electoral reforms throughout the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This wave has touched both countries where long-ruling authoritarian regimes have collapsed and those where existing regimes have (so far) managed to retain power. Throughout the region, even in places not at the center of the recent upheavals—Iraq, Isr…
Incentives to cultivate a personal vote: A rank ordering of electoral formulas
Seat allocation formulas affect candidates' incentives to campaign on a personal rather than party reputation. Variables that enhance personal vote-seeking include: (1) lack of party leadership control over access to and rank on ballots, (2) degree to which candidates are elected on individual votes independent of co-partisans, and (3) whether voters cast a single intra-party vote instead of multiple votes or a party-level vote. District magnitud…
Competing Principals, Political Institutions, and Party Unity in Legislative Voting
Almost all legislators are subordinate to party leadership within their assemblies. Institutional factors shape whether, and to what degree, legislators are also subject to pressure from other principals whose demands may conflict with those of party leaders. This article presents a set of hypotheses on the nature of competing pressures driven by formal political institutions and tests the hypotheses against a new dataset of legislative votes fro…
The Electoral Sweet Spot: Low‐Magnitude Proportional Electoral Systems
Can electoral rules be designed to achieve political ideals such as accurate representation of voter preferences and accountable governments? The academic literature commonly divides electoral systems into two types, majoritarian and proportional, and implies a straightforward trade-off by which having more of an ideal that a majoritarian system provides means giving up an equal measure of what proportional representation (PR) delivers. We posit …
The Effects of Term Limits on State Legislatures: A New Survey of the 50 States
Term limits on legislators were adopted in 21 states during the early 1990s. Beginning in 1996, the limits legally barred incumbents from reelection in 11 states, and they will do so in four more by 2010. In 2002, we conducted the only survey of legislators in all 50 states aimed at assessing the impact of term limits on state legislative representation. We found that term limits have virtually no effect on the types of people elected to office—w…
Incumbency and the Probability of Reelection in State Legislative Elections
We build on work estimating and explaining the incumbency advantage in state legislative elections. Our work makes advances in three ways. First, our model measures the effect of incumbency on the probability of reelection, rather than on candidate vote share or margin of victory. Second, we accommodate both multimember district (MMD) elections that are excluded from most previous studies and uncontested and partially contested (MMD) races. Third…
Primary Elections and Candidate Strength in Latin America
Political parties throughout Latin America rely increasingly on primary elections to select candidates for public office. Where they are adopted, primaries are generally touted as moves toward openness and internal party democracy. Yet politicians and party leaders are concerned with winning elections, and there are reasons to expect that primaries select candidates who are weaker in general election competition than other methods. Using data fro…
The Effects of Term Limits on State Legislatures
Legislative theory suggests that anticipatory effects of term limits would first affect the types of individuals elected to office and only later influence the legislature itself. Our results, based on a 1995 survey of nearly 3000 state legislators nationwide, indicate otherwise. There are no systematic differences between term limit and non-term limit states in the composition of the legislature (e.g., professional backgrounds). Yet with respect…
Searching for Bright Lines in the Trump Presidency
Is American democracy under threat? The question is more prominent in political debate now than at any time in recent memory. However, it is also too blunt; there is widespread recognition that democracy is multifaceted and that backsliding, when it occurs, tends to be piecemeal. To address these concerns, we provide original data from surveys of political science experts and the public measuring the perceived importance and performance of U.S. d…
Parchment, Equilibria, and Institutions
Institutions are rules that constrain political behavior. Although there is consensus that being written down is neither necessary nor sufficient for an institution to be effective, much research on comparative institutions focuses on formal, parchment, institutions. This article argues that parchment can contribute to the generation of shared mutual expectations among political actors, which are essential to the effectiveness of institutions. Ne…
Presidential Agenda Control and Spending Policy: Lessons from General Pinochet's Constitution
Formal institutions put in place upon the establishment of a new democracy can have profound effects on political bargaining. We demonstrate how the budgetary procedure bequeathed by the outgoing Chilean military regime affects policy choices available to elected officials. Chilean budget procedure should discourage deficits, allow for a reduction in the relative size of the defense budget, and facilitate cuts in executive proposals when the inst…
Discipline, Accountability, and Legislative Voting in Latin America
What information do citizens have about what goes on inside legislatures, and what difference does it make to the sort of representation provided? These questions are increasingly important as students of comparative politics evaluate the performance of institutions established in new, or renewed, democracies during the last decades of the twentieth century. In Latin America, where the capacity of the legislative branch relative to the executive …
State‐Level Institutional Effects on Legislative Coalition Unity in Brazil
How do subnational factors affect the proclivity of legislators from the same party or coalition to vote together? We estimate the effects of two institutional forces operating at the state level—intralist electoral competition and alliance with governors—on voting unity among coalition cohorts to the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies. Larger cohorts, in which the imperative for legislators to distinguish themselves from the group is stronger, are le…
Disfavor or Favor? Assessing the Valence of White Americans’ Racial Attitudes
When individuals’ racial attitudes are associated with their judgments related to race — for example, when people with more negative attitudes toward Blacks are less likely to vote for a Black political candidate — existing studies routinely interpret it as evidence of prejudice against minorities. But theoretically, such associations can represent favoring minorities, disfavoring them, or a combination of both. We provide a conceptual framework …
Compulsory Voting and Income Inequality: Evidence for Lijphart's Proposition from Venezuela
What difference does it make if the state makes people vote? The question is central to normative debates about the rights and duties of citizens in a democracy, and to contemporary policy debates in a number of Latin American countries over what actions states should take to encourage electoral participation. Focusing on a rare case of abolishing compulsory voting in Venezuela, this article shows that not forcing people to vote yielded a more un…
Parliamentarism versus Presidentialism in the Policy Arena
The ephemeral effects of fact-checks on Covid-19 misperceptions in the United States, Great Britain and Canada
The Reelection Debate in Latin America
The debate over presidential reelection reappeared in Latin America in the last decade, and promises to continue in the years ahead. Arguments in favor contend that the possibility of immediate reelection increases politicians' responsiveness to citizen demands and allows voters the freedom to retain popular incumbents. Arguments against emphasize the danger of abuse of power by incumbents who seek to prolong their tenure. This article illustrate…
Legislative Autonomy in New Regimes: The Czech and Polish Cases
Parties and Accountable Government in New Democracies
Political scientists have long associated accountability with strong political parties, and have also frequently noted the weakness of parties in new democracies. This article disaggregates the strong party ideal into two components - legislative discipline and programmatic platforms - and suggests that the former in the absence of the latter can undermine accountability. We describe levels of discipline in parties in various new democracies. The…
Political shirking and the last term problem: Evidence for a party-administered pension system
Transparency Versus Collective Action: Fujimori's Legacy and the Peruvian Congress
During the 1990s, the Peruvian Congress was thoroughly dominated by the presidential administration of Alberto Fujimori. In 2000, during the scandals that brought down Fujimori and his associates, the legislature was exposed as riddled with corruption. In the wake of these events, one might expect the congress to be thoroughly discredited and institutionally weakened. I argue that the Peruvian Congress made significant strides toward legislative …
Who wants to hire a more diverse faculty? A conjoint analysis of faculty and student preferences for gender and racial/ethnic diversity
What explains the scarcity of women and under-represented minorities among university faculty relative to their share of Ph.D. recipients? Among many potential explanations, we focus on the “demand” side of faculty diversity. Using fully randomized conjoint analysis, we explore patterns of support for, and resistance to, the hiring of faculty candidates from different social groups at two large public universities in the U.S. We find that faculty…
Impacto das instituições estaduais na unidade das coalizões parlamentares no Brasil
Research on political institutions suggests that sub-national factors affect the proclivity of legislators from the same party or coalition to vote together. We estimate the effects of such forces operating at the State-level - intra-list electoral competition, and alliance with governors. We propose that larger cohorts, in which the imperative for legislators to distinguish themselves from the group is stronger, should be less unified than small…
An inflated view of the facts? How preferences and predispositions shape conspiracy beliefs about the Deflategate scandal
Beliefs in conspiracy theories about controversial issues are often strongly influenced by people’s existing beliefs and attitudes. We leverage a prominent football-related controversy – the US National Football League’s “Deflategate” scandal – to investigate how factual perceptions and conspiracy beliefs vary by fan loyalties to sports teams. Using an original survey sample, we explore two key drivers of conspiratorial beliefs about the scandal.…
Between Science and Engineering: Reflections on the Apsa Presidential Task Force on Political Science, Electoral Rules, and Democratic Governance
Political scientists have contributed to the world of electoral systems asscientistsand asengineers. Taking stock of recent scientific research, we show that context modifies the effects of electoral rules on political outcomes inspecificandsystematicways. We explore how electoral rules shape the inclusion of women and minorities, the depth and nature of political competition, and patterns of redistribution and regulation, and we consider institu…
The United Nations’ Double Standard on Human Rights Complaints
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The Use of Experts by International Tribunals
Journal Article The use of Experts by International Tribunals. The Procedural Status of the Individual Before International and Supranational Tribunals. International Protection of Human Rights. Human Rights in National and International Law Get access The use of Experts by International Tribunals By White G. M.cuse: Syracuse University Press, 1965.pp. xvi, 259.The Procedural Status of the Individual Before International and Supranational Tribuna…
Report of the Committee on Publications of the Department of State and the United Nations Department of State Publications
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What Litigators should Know about the United Nations
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Human Rights and International Action: The Case of Freedom of Association
UN Protection of Civil and Political Rights
U. N. Protection of Civil and Political Rights
Report of the Committee on Publications of the Department of State and the United Nations
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Foreign Investments and International Law
Progress on Human Rights at the United Nations
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UN Protection of Civil and Political Rights. Volume 8
Journal Article Book Notices Get access The American Journal of Comparative Law, Volume 20, Issue 2, Spring 1972, Pages 368–370, https://doi.org/10.2307/839001 Published: 01 April 1972
John Donne: Life, Mind and Art
is perhaps the most intellectual of English poets, and John Carey is perhaps the most intelligent of contemporary English literary critics. encounter, as one might expect, is fierce and enthralling...This book is sensitive, searching, powerful, exciting, provocative and witty. It is a superb achievement. (Christopher Hill, TLS). John Donne: Life, Mind and Art is a unique attempt to see Donne whole. Beginning with an account of his life, it takes …
Electronic text: A new path for higher education
Medieval Ireland: The Enduring Tradition. Michael Richter , Brian Stone , Adrian Keogh , Próinséas Ní Chatháin
Iona, Kells, and Derry: The History and Hagiography of the Monastic "Familia" of Columba. Máire Herbert
Betha Adamnáin: The Irish Life of Adamnán . Máire Herbert , Pádraig Ó Riain
A British Myth of Origins
Presidents and Assemblies: Constitutional Design and Electoral Dynamics
In recent years renewed attention has been directed to the importance of the role of institutional design in democratic politics. Particular interest has concerned constitutional design and the relative merits of parliamentary versus presidential systems. In this book, the authors systematically assess the strengths and weaknesses of various forms of presidential systems, drawing on recent developments in the theoretical literature about institut…
Pagan Past and Christian Present in Early Irish Literature. Kim McCone
Medieval Irish Saints' Lives: An Introduction to Vitae Sanctorium Hiberniae. Richard Sharpe
New Perspectives on Parliamentary Systems: A Review Article
Political shirking and the last term problem: Evidence for a party-administered pension system
Incentives to cultivate a personal vote: A rank ordering of electoral formulas
Seat allocation formulas affect candidates' incentives to campaign on a personal rather than party reputation. Variables that enhance personal vote-seeking include: (1) lack of party leadership control over access to and rank on ballots, (2) degree to which candidates are elected on individual votes independent of co-partisans, and (3) whether voters cast a single intra-party vote instead of multiple votes or a party-level vote. District magnitud…
Term Limits and Legislative Representation
Virtually all legislative theory is built on the assumption that politicians are first and foremost reelection-seekers, and because so few countries have ever limited legislative reelection, this assumption has rarely been questioned. As a result, political science has been ill-equipped to offer insights on the impact of legislative term limits. Term Limits and Legislative Representation, first published in 1996, tests the central arguments made …
Crafting constitutions
Crafting Constitutions John M. Carey (bio) Comparative Constitutional Engineering: An Inquiry into Structures, Incentives and Outcomes. By Giovanni Sartori. New York University Press, 1994. 219 pp. The massive wave of democratic reform that has swept so many parts of the world over the past 20 years has brought a flood of books and articles on the proper design of democratic constitutions. Giovanni Sartori, who has long been one of the world’s mo…
Political science (65 works) · Law (57 works) · Politics (45 works) · Law (37 works) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (31 works) · Economics (30 works) · Political economy (28 works) · Sociology (25 works) · Public Administration (24 works) · Democracy (21 works)