Juan David Gelvez
Biographic Data
| ID | 783883 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Juan David Gelvez |
| GIVEN NAMES | Juan David |
| FAMILY NAME | Gelvez |
| SIGNATURE | GELVEZ J D |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Maryland, College Park |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-7526-8384 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 8 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 5 |
| WORKS AS AUTHOR | 8 |
| WORKS AS EDITOR | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2022 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
The politics of crime prevention
Why do governments prevent crime in some places while neglecting others? Crime prevention policies are often viewed as too slow, diffuse, and politically intangible to generate electoral rewards. When implemented, existing research suggests they primarily serve to reward co-partisans or mobilize ideologically aligned voters. This article challenges that view by arguing that incumbents allocate crime prevention resources to electorally competitive…
Predicting police and military violence
Armed forces violence has pervasive effects on public trust and population well-being. Such misconduct is not random, making its prevention both crucial and challenging due to the difficulty of measuring and detecting these phenomena beforehand. Recent advances in artificial intelligence offer new tools for this task. This article proposes the use of machine learning models to predict armed forces violence at the municipality level. Focusing on C…
Rewards, sanctions, and trust in the police
Climate Disasters, Armed Conflict, and Forced Displacement
Objective This study examines the spatial dynamics of climate disasters, violence, and internal displacement in Colombia. Methods We combine data on disasters, displacement, and conflict violence at the municipal level for all years between 1998 and 2021. Through descriptive and cluster analysis, the local Geary statistic, and principal component analysis, we identify distinct geographic patterns and temporal shifts in how these factors interact.…
Public Opinion on Forced Eradication
How does the form of community dissent shape public support for coercive state policies? This article addresses this question through a vignette experiment on coca forced eradication in Colombia. Participants were randomly assigned to scenarios in which communities either verbally objected to or mobilized against coercive eradication efforts. Exposure to mobilization, compared to verbal objection, reduces support for both unconditional eradicatio…
Incentives War
How do alternative development programs, designed to diminish the presence of illicit crops, might cause unexpected consequences? This article studies how the announcement about an alternative development program, following the signing of the peace agreement in Colombia, resulted in an increase in coca cultivation. Employing a difference-in-differences methodology, this document evaluates the impact of the National Comprehensive Plan for the Subs…
Los nadies y las nadies
How do peacebuilding institutions affect political behavior? This article studies the historic victory of the Colombian left in the 2022 presidential elections in light of the implementation of local peacebuilding programs through the 2016 Peace Accords. Using a quasi-experimental design, we show that the Development Plans with a Territorial Focus (PDET), a central component of the 2016 Peace Accords between the government and the FARC, increased…
Prediciendo el crimen en ciudades intermedias
El uso de tecnología para prevenir el crimen es una práctica cada vez más frecuente. Sin embargo, la evidencia se ha concentrado en ciudades principales, que cuentan con gran cantidad de datos y mejores capacidades locales. El objetivo de esta investigación es presentar los resultados de un modelo de “machine learning” para predecir el delito en Bucaramanga, una ciudad intermedia de Colombia. Se utilizó el procesamiento de señales para grafos y u…
Los nadies y las nadies
How do peacebuilding institutions affect political behavior? This article studies the historic victory of the Colombian left in the 2022 presidential elections in light of the implementation of local peacebuilding programs through the 2016 Peace Accords. Using a quasi-experimental design, we show that the Development Plans with a Territorial Focus (PDET), a central component of the 2016 Peace Accords between the government and the FARC, increased…
Incentives War
How do alternative development programs, designed to diminish the presence of illicit crops, might cause unexpected consequences? This article studies how the announcement about an alternative development program, following the signing of the peace agreement in Colombia, resulted in an increase in coca cultivation. Employing a difference-in-differences methodology, this document evaluates the impact of the National Comprehensive Plan for the Subs…
Prediciendo el crimen en ciudades intermedias
El uso de tecnología para prevenir el crimen es una práctica cada vez más frecuente. Sin embargo, la evidencia se ha concentrado en ciudades principales, que cuentan con gran cantidad de datos y mejores capacidades locales. El objetivo de esta investigación es presentar los resultados de un modelo de “machine learning” para predecir el delito en Bucaramanga, una ciudad intermedia de Colombia. Se utilizó el procesamiento de señales para grafos y u…
Incentives War
How do alternative development programs, designed to diminish the presence of illicit crops, might cause unexpected consequences? This article studies how the announcement about an alternative development program, following the signing of the peace agreement in Colombia, resulted in an increase in coca cultivation. Employing a difference-in-differences methodology, this document evaluates the impact of the National Comprehensive Plan for the Subs…
Los nadies y las nadies
How do peacebuilding institutions affect political behavior? This article studies the historic victory of the Colombian left in the 2022 presidential elections in light of the implementation of local peacebuilding programs through the 2016 Peace Accords. Using a quasi-experimental design, we show that the Development Plans with a Territorial Focus (PDET), a central component of the 2016 Peace Accords between the government and the FARC, increased…
Predicting police and military violence
Armed forces violence has pervasive effects on public trust and population well-being. Such misconduct is not random, making its prevention both crucial and challenging due to the difficulty of measuring and detecting these phenomena beforehand. Recent advances in artificial intelligence offer new tools for this task. This article proposes the use of machine learning models to predict armed forces violence at the municipality level. Focusing on C…
Rewards, sanctions, and trust in the police
Climate Disasters, Armed Conflict, and Forced Displacement
Objective This study examines the spatial dynamics of climate disasters, violence, and internal displacement in Colombia. Methods We combine data on disasters, displacement, and conflict violence at the municipal level for all years between 1998 and 2021. Through descriptive and cluster analysis, the local Geary statistic, and principal component analysis, we identify distinct geographic patterns and temporal shifts in how these factors interact.…
Public Opinion on Forced Eradication
How does the form of community dissent shape public support for coercive state policies? This article addresses this question through a vignette experiment on coca forced eradication in Colombia. Participants were randomly assigned to scenarios in which communities either verbally objected to or mobilized against coercive eradication efforts. Exposure to mobilization, compared to verbal objection, reduces support for both unconditional eradicatio…
The politics of crime prevention
Why do governments prevent crime in some places while neglecting others? Crime prevention policies are often viewed as too slow, diffuse, and politically intangible to generate electoral rewards. When implemented, existing research suggests they primarily serve to reward co-partisans or mobilize ideologically aligned voters. This article challenges that view by arguing that incumbents allocate crime prevention resources to electorally competitive…
Political science (6 works) · Crime Patterns and Interventions (3 works) · Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance (3 works) · Criminology (3 works) · Law (3 works) · Psychology (3 works) · Sociology (3 works) · Corruption and Economic Development (2 works) · Economics (2 works) · Politics (2 works)