Kenneth Bunker
Datos Biográficos
| ID | 826317 |
|---|---|
| NOMBRE | Kenneth Bunker |
| NOMBRES | Kenneth |
| APELLIDO | Bunker |
| FIRMA | BUNKER K |
| AFILIACIONES | London School of Economics and Political Science |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-4579-6132 |
| VERIFICADO | Sí |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 15 |
| TOTAL DE CITAS | 21 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 15 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMER AÑO DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2013 |
| AÑO MÁS RECIENTE DE PUBLICACIÓN | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 3 |
Electoral reform and party-system fragmentation
Evidence on the impact of electoral reform on party systems in new democracies is limited. This study analyses 1,725 Chilean municipal contests (2004-2021), leveraging automatic, population-triggered increases in council district magnitude and the concurrent timing of first-past-the-post mayoral and proportional representation council elections. Using a difference-in-differences design and mixed-effects models, larger district magnitudes are foun…
Decades of democracy
Chile was long considered a beacon of stability in a turbulent region, until the 2019 social outburst and two failed constitutional processes prompted a reassessment. We argue that the reliance of much of the literature on national aggregates obscured underlying dynamics that could have raised institutional alerts, and perhaps even diverted the course of the crisis. To test this claim, we focus on the Chilean party system as it has been tied to t…
Electoral Forecasting in Volatile Party System Settings
This study examines electoral forecasting in volatile party systems, focusing on factors contributing to deviations between poll predictions and actual election outcomes. Using Italy as a case study, it identifies biases in polling data and proposes a method to enhance estimator accuracy in a context of stable institutions and volatile electoral dynamics. Data from three Italian general elections are analyzed to evaluate discrepancies between pre…
Mapping party systems over time
Recasting of the Latin American Right
This book analyzes the transformation of the political right in Latin America in response to the strengthening of left-wing parties and movements throughout the region. While Latin America's post-2000 left has been widely studied, little is known about right-wing political formations during and after that time. There is a paucity of research on recent phenomena associated with the reorganization of the Right: the polarization of Latin American el…
The party system effects of unstable electoral rules in Latin America
Prior studies have shown that electoral rules fail to determine the number of parties in new democracies due to the uncertainty of voters and politicians about which parties are viable. Latin American democracies, where electoral volatility has generally remained high and party institutionalization low, have been a primary example of this phenomenon. We argue that even in shifting political environments the fragmentation of the party system is li…
Forecasting two-horse races in new democracies
The purpose of this article is to explore electoral forecasting in two-horse races in new democracies. Specifically, it applies a Bayesian dynamic linear model (coined the Two-Stage Model, TSM) to look at the 2020 Chilean two-question national plebiscite. The ultimate objective is to test the TSM in terms of accuracy (how close the forecast is to the election results), precision (how close the forecast is to other methods of prediction) and error…
El clivaje etario
Literatura reciente sugiere que los factores culturales están ganando poder predictivo sobre determinantes ideológicos en la explicación del comportamiento electoral en democracias establecidas. Pero, ¿ocurre lo mismo en democracias nuevas? Este artículo busca responder a esta pregunta tomando como referencia el caso de Chile. Utiliza datos de encuestas para comparar factores culturales con los determinantes ideológicos y cohortes de edad globale…
Party systems in Latin America
Party systems in Latin America: institutionalization, decay, and collapse, edited by Scott Mainwaring." Democratization, 26(3), pp. 554–555
Why do parties cooperate in presidentialism? Electoral and government coalition formation in Latin America
The purpose of this article is to explore coalition formation in presidential systems using evidence from Latin America. It puts forward three hypotheses based on formateur power, electoral structures and party systems to explore when and why electoral and government coalition formation occurs. It uses evidence stemming from eighteen democratic presidential regimes in Latin America from 1980 to 2010. It looks at 100 elections and 407 aggregate ye…
Voter Equalization and Turnout Bias After Electoral Reform
It has normally been argued that because compulsory voting systems present higher turnout rates relative to voluntary voting systems, they do not generate as many biases between different groups of voters. This article qualifies that view. It argues that in cases in which compulsory voting does not ensure near-universal participation, there is no certainty that switching to voluntary voting will increase inequalities. This issue is examined by lo…
Pronósticos Electorales y Seguimiento de Opinión Publica en Latino América
El propósito de este artículo es explorar pronósticos electorales y seguimiento de opinión pública en América Latina. Revisamos distintos enfoques que se han utilizado para estimar el verdadero valor de la opinión pública, y evaluamos su rango de aplicación. Nos enfocamos en pronósticos electorales y seguimientos de variaciones durante campañas en América Latina. Proponemos un modelo de dos etapas basado en la agregación de encuestas y la inferen…
Incumbency Advantage and Tenure Length in the Chilean Chamber of Deputies, 1989-2009
This article explores incumbency advantage and tenure length in the Chilean Chamber of Deputies between 1989 and 2009.After describing how the electoral system frames electoral competition, we present descriptive data of incumbency advantage and tenure length.There is remarkable stability in both indicators.Three out of four incumbents seek re-election, 82.3% get re-elected.Still, every four years, first-termers comprise 38.5% of the 120-member C…
The 2013 presidential and legislative elections in Chile
Latin American Political Outsiders, Revisited
This article applies the debate on the recent emergence of outsider candidates in Latin America to independent presidential candidate Marco Enríquez-Ominami (ME-O) in Chile in 2009. We test five competing hypotheses to explain his electoral success. First, his support is explained by the consolidation of democracy, reflected by the disposition of voters to disregard the authoritarian/democratic-aligned candidates. Second, his support is explained…
Voter Equalization and Turnout Bias After Electoral Reform
It has normally been argued that because compulsory voting systems present higher turnout rates relative to voluntary voting systems, they do not generate as many biases between different groups of voters. This article qualifies that view. It argues that in cases in which compulsory voting does not ensure near-universal participation, there is no certainty that switching to voluntary voting will increase inequalities. This issue is examined by lo…
Incumbency Advantage and Tenure Length in the Chilean Chamber of Deputies, 1989-2009
This article explores incumbency advantage and tenure length in the Chilean Chamber of Deputies between 1989 and 2009.After describing how the electoral system frames electoral competition, we present descriptive data of incumbency advantage and tenure length.There is remarkable stability in both indicators.Three out of four incumbents seek re-election, 82.3% get re-elected.Still, every four years, first-termers comprise 38.5% of the 120-member C…
Latin American Political Outsiders, Revisited
This article applies the debate on the recent emergence of outsider candidates in Latin America to independent presidential candidate Marco Enríquez-Ominami (ME-O) in Chile in 2009. We test five competing hypotheses to explain his electoral success. First, his support is explained by the consolidation of democracy, reflected by the disposition of voters to disregard the authoritarian/democratic-aligned candidates. Second, his support is explained…
Why do parties cooperate in presidentialism? Electoral and government coalition formation in Latin America
The purpose of this article is to explore coalition formation in presidential systems using evidence from Latin America. It puts forward three hypotheses based on formateur power, electoral structures and party systems to explore when and why electoral and government coalition formation occurs. It uses evidence stemming from eighteen democratic presidential regimes in Latin America from 1980 to 2010. It looks at 100 elections and 407 aggregate ye…
The party system effects of unstable electoral rules in Latin America
Prior studies have shown that electoral rules fail to determine the number of parties in new democracies due to the uncertainty of voters and politicians about which parties are viable. Latin American democracies, where electoral volatility has generally remained high and party institutionalization low, have been a primary example of this phenomenon. We argue that even in shifting political environments the fragmentation of the party system is li…
El clivaje etario
Literatura reciente sugiere que los factores culturales están ganando poder predictivo sobre determinantes ideológicos en la explicación del comportamiento electoral en democracias establecidas. Pero, ¿ocurre lo mismo en democracias nuevas? Este artículo busca responder a esta pregunta tomando como referencia el caso de Chile. Utiliza datos de encuestas para comparar factores culturales con los determinantes ideológicos y cohortes de edad globale…
The 2013 presidential and legislative elections in Chile
Latin American Political Outsiders, Revisited
This article applies the debate on the recent emergence of outsider candidates in Latin America to independent presidential candidate Marco Enríquez-Ominami (ME-O) in Chile in 2009. We test five competing hypotheses to explain his electoral success. First, his support is explained by the consolidation of democracy, reflected by the disposition of voters to disregard the authoritarian/democratic-aligned candidates. Second, his support is explained…
The 2013 presidential and legislative elections in Chile
Incumbency Advantage and Tenure Length in the Chilean Chamber of Deputies, 1989-2009
This article explores incumbency advantage and tenure length in the Chilean Chamber of Deputies between 1989 and 2009.After describing how the electoral system frames electoral competition, we present descriptive data of incumbency advantage and tenure length.There is remarkable stability in both indicators.Three out of four incumbents seek re-election, 82.3% get re-elected.Still, every four years, first-termers comprise 38.5% of the 120-member C…
Pronósticos Electorales y Seguimiento de Opinión Publica en Latino América
El propósito de este artículo es explorar pronósticos electorales y seguimiento de opinión pública en América Latina. Revisamos distintos enfoques que se han utilizado para estimar el verdadero valor de la opinión pública, y evaluamos su rango de aplicación. Nos enfocamos en pronósticos electorales y seguimientos de variaciones durante campañas en América Latina. Proponemos un modelo de dos etapas basado en la agregación de encuestas y la inferen…
Party systems in Latin America
Party systems in Latin America: institutionalization, decay, and collapse, edited by Scott Mainwaring." Democratization, 26(3), pp. 554–555
Why do parties cooperate in presidentialism? Electoral and government coalition formation in Latin America
The purpose of this article is to explore coalition formation in presidential systems using evidence from Latin America. It puts forward three hypotheses based on formateur power, electoral structures and party systems to explore when and why electoral and government coalition formation occurs. It uses evidence stemming from eighteen democratic presidential regimes in Latin America from 1980 to 2010. It looks at 100 elections and 407 aggregate ye…
Voter Equalization and Turnout Bias After Electoral Reform
It has normally been argued that because compulsory voting systems present higher turnout rates relative to voluntary voting systems, they do not generate as many biases between different groups of voters. This article qualifies that view. It argues that in cases in which compulsory voting does not ensure near-universal participation, there is no certainty that switching to voluntary voting will increase inequalities. This issue is examined by lo…
El clivaje etario
Literatura reciente sugiere que los factores culturales están ganando poder predictivo sobre determinantes ideológicos en la explicación del comportamiento electoral en democracias establecidas. Pero, ¿ocurre lo mismo en democracias nuevas? Este artículo busca responder a esta pregunta tomando como referencia el caso de Chile. Utiliza datos de encuestas para comparar factores culturales con los determinantes ideológicos y cohortes de edad globale…
Forecasting two-horse races in new democracies
The purpose of this article is to explore electoral forecasting in two-horse races in new democracies. Specifically, it applies a Bayesian dynamic linear model (coined the Two-Stage Model, TSM) to look at the 2020 Chilean two-question national plebiscite. The ultimate objective is to test the TSM in terms of accuracy (how close the forecast is to the election results), precision (how close the forecast is to other methods of prediction) and error…
Recasting of the Latin American Right
This book analyzes the transformation of the political right in Latin America in response to the strengthening of left-wing parties and movements throughout the region. While Latin America's post-2000 left has been widely studied, little is known about right-wing political formations during and after that time. There is a paucity of research on recent phenomena associated with the reorganization of the Right: the polarization of Latin American el…
The party system effects of unstable electoral rules in Latin America
Prior studies have shown that electoral rules fail to determine the number of parties in new democracies due to the uncertainty of voters and politicians about which parties are viable. Latin American democracies, where electoral volatility has generally remained high and party institutionalization low, have been a primary example of this phenomenon. We argue that even in shifting political environments the fragmentation of the party system is li…
Decades of democracy
Chile was long considered a beacon of stability in a turbulent region, until the 2019 social outburst and two failed constitutional processes prompted a reassessment. We argue that the reliance of much of the literature on national aggregates obscured underlying dynamics that could have raised institutional alerts, and perhaps even diverted the course of the crisis. To test this claim, we focus on the Chilean party system as it has been tied to t…
Electoral Forecasting in Volatile Party System Settings
This study examines electoral forecasting in volatile party systems, focusing on factors contributing to deviations between poll predictions and actual election outcomes. Using Italy as a case study, it identifies biases in polling data and proposes a method to enhance estimator accuracy in a context of stable institutions and volatile electoral dynamics. Data from three Italian general elections are analyzed to evaluate discrepancies between pre…
Mapping party systems over time
Electoral reform and party-system fragmentation
Evidence on the impact of electoral reform on party systems in new democracies is limited. This study analyses 1,725 Chilean municipal contests (2004-2021), leveraging automatic, population-triggered increases in council district magnitude and the concurrent timing of first-past-the-post mayoral and proportional representation council elections. Using a difference-in-differences design and mixed-effects models, larger district magnitudes are foun…
Political science (12 obras) · Politics and Society in Latin America (9 obras) · Law (8 obras) · Politics (8 obras) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (7 obras) · Political economy (7 obras) · Democracy (6 obras) · Law (6 obras) · Economics (5 obras) · Latin Americans (5 obras)