Charles Tien
Biographic Data
| ID | 87685 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Charles Tien |
| GIVEN NAMES | Charles |
| FAMILY NAME | Tien |
| SIGNATURE | TIEN C |
| AFFILIATIONS | Hunter College and the Graduate Center CUNY |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 53 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 95 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 53 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1996 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 5 |
Triplicates
A Conversation with Joan Tronto about Making Good Care a Central Concern of Political Life
Blue Moon
Ask a Political Scientist: A Conversation with Eva Anduiza on Polarization, Equality, and Being a Leader
Shame
Dancing with the Stars
Why Trump? Candidate Authenticity, Trust in Government, and Primary Elections
Intentionally Left Blank
Ask a Political Scientist: A Conversation with Jacqueline Anne Braveboy-Wagner on Small States, the Global South, and Being a Trailblazer
Trajectories
Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Blank Space
A Loss for Words
Referendum Model Forecasts: Trump and the 2022 Midterm Errors
Buttered Bagels
Previous articleNext article FreeButtered BagelsAlyson Cole, Robyn Marasco, and Charles TienAlyson Cole Search for more articles by this author , Robyn Marasco Search for more articles by this author , and Charles Tien Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreAs the press production schedule requir…
On The Edge
Many of these activists also saw that the anti-choice movement advanced its agenda on several fronts, using all of the weapons at its disposal, and argued that feminists must do the same. In the 1970s, Juliet Mitchell lamented that feminism was the only “liberation” movement to lack a significant clandestine element. After Dobbs, the feminist movement is forced to re-examine its legal strategy and think beyond the courts, even beyond the liberali…
Taking Account
Rear Windows
Ask a Political Scientist: A Conversation with Yuen Yuen Ang about China and Political Science
Ask a Political Scientist: A Conversation with Michael S. Lewis-Beck about Vote Choice, Election Forecasting, and the 2022 Midterms
Previous articleNext article FreeAsk a Political Scientist: A Conversation with Michael S. Lewis-Beck about Vote Choice, Election Forecasting, and the 2022 MidtermsInterviewer: Mary Stegmaier and Interviewer: Charles TienInterviewer: Mary Stegmaier and Interviewer: Charles TienPDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreMary Stegmaier & Cha…
Ask a Political Scientist: A Conversation with Stephen Skowronek about American Political Development and the Policy State
Previous article FreeAsk a Political Scientist: A Conversation with Stephen Skowronek about American Political Development and the Policy StateInterviewer: Alyson Cole and Interviewer: Charles TienInterviewer: Alyson Cole Search for more articles by this author and Interviewer: Charles Tien Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked…
Ask a Political Scientist: A Conversation with Efrén Pérez about Political Psychology and the Study of Race and Ethnic Politics
Previous articleNext article FreeAsk a Political Scientist: A Conversation with Efrén Pérez about Political Psychology and the Study of Race and Ethnic PoliticsRobyn Marasco and Charles TienRobyn Marasco Search for more articles by this author and Charles Tien Search for more articles by this author Full TextPDF Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreRM & …
Stop Wars
Previous articleNext article FreeSTOP WARSAlyson Cole, Robyn Marasco, and Charles TienAlyson Cole Search for more articles by this author , Robyn Marasco Search for more articles by this author , and Charles Tien Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreAs co-editors, we have used the Editors’ Note…
Dreaming Differently
Previous articleNext article FreeDreaming DifferentlyAlyson Cole, Robyn Marasco, and Charles TienAlyson Cole Search for more articles by this author , Robyn Marasco Search for more articles by this author , and Charles Tien Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreWe’ve often joked about feeling co…
Eyes Wide Shut
Previous articleNext article FreeEyes Wide ShutAlyson Cole, Robyn Marasco, and Charles TienAlyson Cole Search for more articles by this author , Robyn Marasco Search for more articles by this author , and Charles Tien Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreThe cover of our July issue features an …
Obama's Missed Landslide: A Racial Cost
Barack Obama was denied a landslide victory in the 2008 presidential election. In the face of economic and political woe without precedent in the post-World War II period, the expectation of an overwhelming win was not unreasonable. He did win, but with just a 52.9 percentage point share of the total popular vote. We argue a landslide was taken from Obama because of race prejudice. In our article, we first quantify the extent of the actual Obama …
Representation, Voluntary Retirement, and Shirking in the Last Term
Do Differences Matter: Women Members of Congress and the Hyde Amendment
Have women members of Congress made a difference? A handful of studies have answered this “so what” question by looking for differences between male and female legislators. We build on previous research and propose an additional way of answering this question. If women members are making a difference, then they should be changing how men behave in Congress. Specifically, if women members are making a difference, then they should be changing how t…
Election Forecasting for Turbulent Times
Election forecasters face increasing turbulence in their relevant environments, making predictions more uncertain, or at least apparently so. For US presidential contests, economic performance and candidate profiles are central variables in most statistical models. These variables have exhibited large swings recently. Before the 2008 US presidential election, the economy fell into a Great Recession, and the candidate of one of the two major parti…
Race Blunts the Economic Effect? The 2008 Obama Forecast
The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summer leading up to the election. This article is an assessment of the accuracy of their models.In summer 2008, our Jobs Model forecast a Democratic presidential candidate two-party popular vote share of 56.6%, which would deliver the incumbent party the biggest defeat of any post-World War II contest (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2008). However, we…
Obama and 2012: Still a Racial Cost to Pay
Will President Obama lose votes in 2012 because of racial prejudice? For 2008, we estimated, via a carefully controlled, national survey-based study, that on balance he lost about five percentage points in popular vote share due to intolerance for his race on the part of some voters. What about 2012? There are at least three possibilities: (1) the presidency has become postracial, and the vote will register no racial cost; (2) intolerance has inc…
Candidates and campaigns: How they alter election forecasts
The Job of President and the Jobs Model Forecast: Obama for '08
The statistical modelers are back. The presidential election forecasting errors of 2000 did not repeat themselves in 2004. On the contrary, the forecasts, from at least seven different teams, were generally quite accurate (Campbell 2004; Lewis-Beck 2005). Encouragingly, their prowess is receiving attention from forecasters outside the social sciences, in fields such as engineering and commerce. Noteworthy here is the recent special issue on U.S. …
Department Rankings: An Alternative Approach
Referendum Model Forecasts: Trump and the 2022 Midterm Errors
A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
The Political Economy Model: 2016 US Election Forecasts
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Proxy Models and Nowcasting: U.S. Presidential Elections in the Future
U.S. presidential election forecasting has lately received considerable attention. A leading approach, statistical modeling, has undergone considerable change. We have contributed to that change in two ways, by stressing prediction over explanation and dynamics over statics. For prediction, we offer a proxy model of U.S. presidential election forecasting, based on an empirical (political economy) indicator measured six months in advance. For dyna…
Proxy Forecasts: A Working Strategy
Our Proxy Model of presidential election forecasting declared, from data issued six months before the November contest, that Obama would garner 52.7% of the two-party popular vote. [See the model release in our Monkey Cage blog-post (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2012a) on September 18, 2012, and in the October issue of PS (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2012b).] Thus, that forecast called the correct winner, with a point estimate error of only 0.9 percentage points
The Referendum Model: A 2010 Congressional Forecast
Congressional election forecasting has experienced steady growth. Currently fashionable models stress prediction over explanation. The independent variables do not offer a substantive account of the election outcome. Instead, these variables are tracking variables—that is, indicators that may trace the result but fail to explain it. The outstanding example is the generic ballot measure, which asks respondents for whom they plan to vote in the upc…
Jobs and the Job of President: A Forecast for 2004
During spring 2000, we released to the press a preliminary forecast of a Gore victory. Indeed, one of us, in a widely-read quotation, declared, “It's not even going to be close” (Washington Post, May 26, 2000, p. 1). We were wrong, as were all of our fellow modelers. Indeed, among “five of the best forecasters” identified by Robert Kaiser (Washington Post, May 26, 2000, p. 1), the Gore projection ranged from 53% to 60% of the two-party popular vo…
Why Trump? Candidate Authenticity, Trust in Government, and Primary Elections
Do differences matter? Women members of congress and the Hyde amendment
Modeling the Future: Lessons from the Gore Forecast
Our 2000 presidential election fore cast was considerably off the mark. We predicted Gore would receive 56.9% of the two-party popular vote. Gore did get the majority of this popular vote (about 50.2%), as we predicted, but his total fell many points short of our forecast. Does such a loarge error (of 6.7 points) invalidate our model? We are hesitant to say so, since we forecast Clinton's victory in 1996 almost exactly using the same model, and m…
A Conversation with Joan Tronto about Making Good Care a Central Concern of Political Life
Ask a Political Scientist: A Conversation with Eva Anduiza on Polarization, Equality, and Being a Leader
Ask a Political Scientist: A Conversation with Jacqueline Anne Braveboy-Wagner on Small States, the Global South, and Being a Trailblazer
Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Ask a Political Scientist: A Conversation with Yuen Yuen Ang about China and Political Science
Ask a Political Scientist: A Conversation with Michael S. Lewis-Beck about Vote Choice, Election Forecasting, and the 2022 Midterms
Previous articleNext article FreeAsk a Political Scientist: A Conversation with Michael S. Lewis-Beck about Vote Choice, Election Forecasting, and the 2022 MidtermsInterviewer: Mary Stegmaier and Interviewer: Charles TienInterviewer: Mary Stegmaier and Interviewer: Charles TienPDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreMary Stegmaier & Cha…
Department Rankings: An Alternative Approach
The Polls—Trends
Trends: American Ambivalence toward China Get access CHARLES TIEN, CHARLES TIEN Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar JAMES A. NATHAN JAMES A. NATHAN Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 65, Issue 1, March 2001, Pages 124–138, https://doi.org/10.1086/320042 Published: 01 March 2001
Do Differences Matter: Women Members of Congress and the Hyde Amendment
Have women members of Congress made a difference? A handful of studies have answered this “so what” question by looking for differences between male and female legislators. We build on previous research and propose an additional way of answering this question. If women members are making a difference, then they should be changing how men behave in Congress. Specifically, if women members are making a difference, then they should be changing how t…
Representation, Voluntary Retirement, and Shirking in the Last Term
Do differences matter? Women members of congress and the Hyde amendment
Modeling the Future: Lessons from the Gore Forecast
Our 2000 presidential election fore cast was considerably off the mark. We predicted Gore would receive 56.9% of the two-party popular vote. Gore did get the majority of this popular vote (about 50.2%), as we predicted, but his total fell many points short of our forecast. Does such a loarge error (of 6.7 points) invalidate our model? We are hesitant to say so, since we forecast Clinton's victory in 1996 almost exactly using the same model, and m…
Jobs and the Job of President: A Forecast for 2004
During spring 2000, we released to the press a preliminary forecast of a Gore victory. Indeed, one of us, in a widely-read quotation, declared, “It's not even going to be close” (Washington Post, May 26, 2000, p. 1). We were wrong, as were all of our fellow modelers. Indeed, among “five of the best forecasters” identified by Robert Kaiser (Washington Post, May 26, 2000, p. 1), the Gore projection ranged from 53% to 60% of the two-party popular vo…
The Jobs Model Forecast: Well Done in 2004
The Jobs Model of presidential election forecasting predicted well in 2004. The model, based on data available in August 2004, generated an error of only 1.3 percentage points when forecasting the incumbent share of the two-party popular vote (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2004). In contrast, the median forecast from seven teams of statistical modelers was off 2.6 percentage points (Campbell 2004, 734). We believe that the Jobs Model was more accurate beca…
The Job of President and the Jobs Model Forecast: Obama for '08
The statistical modelers are back. The presidential election forecasting errors of 2000 did not repeat themselves in 2004. On the contrary, the forecasts, from at least seven different teams, were generally quite accurate (Campbell 2004; Lewis-Beck 2005). Encouragingly, their prowess is receiving attention from forecasters outside the social sciences, in fields such as engineering and commerce. Noteworthy here is the recent special issue on U.S. …
The Influence of African Americans on Congress: A Content Analysis of the Civil Rights Debates
In this paper we approach, from a different angle than previous research, the question of whether gains in descriptive representation for African Americans result in losses in substantive representation. By looking at how the presence of African Americans has changed Congress over time, we assess the long-term impact of electing more African Americans to Congress on substantive representation. Specifically, we content analyze House floor debates …
Difficult Transitions: Foreign Policy Troubles at the Outset of Presidential Power by Kurt M. Campbell and James B. Steinberg
Journal Article Difficult Transitions: Foreign Policy Troubles at the Outset of Presidential Power by Kurt M. Campbell and James B. Steinberg Get access Difficult Transitions: Foreign Policy Troubles at the Outset of Presidential Power by Kurt M. Campbell and James B. Steinberg. Washington, DC, Brookings Institution Press, 2008. 204 pp. $26.95. Charles Tien Charles Tien Hunter College and the Graduate CenterCUNY Search for other works by this aut…
Race Blunts the Economic Effect? The 2008 Obama Forecast
The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposium of presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summer leading up to the election. This article is an assessment of the accuracy of their models.In summer 2008, our Jobs Model forecast a Democratic presidential candidate two-party popular vote share of 56.6%, which would deliver the incumbent party the biggest defeat of any post-World War II contest (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2008). However, we…
Obama's Missed Landslide: A Racial Cost
Barack Obama was denied a landslide victory in the 2008 presidential election. In the face of economic and political woe without precedent in the post-World War II period, the expectation of an overwhelming win was not unreasonable. He did win, but with just a 52.9 percentage point share of the total popular vote. We argue a landslide was taken from Obama because of race prejudice. In our article, we first quantify the extent of the actual Obama …
The Referendum Model: A 2010 Congressional Forecast
Congressional election forecasting has experienced steady growth. Currently fashionable models stress prediction over explanation. The independent variables do not offer a substantive account of the election outcome. Instead, these variables are tracking variables—that is, indicators that may trace the result but fail to explain it. The outstanding example is the generic ballot measure, which asks respondents for whom they plan to vote in the upc…
Postmortems of the 2010 Midterm Election Forecasts: Congressional Forecasts: Theory Versus Tracking in 2010
In our recent article forecasting the 2010 U.S. congressional elections, we argue for a model based on theory rather than tracking (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2010). A sound theoretical explanation of vote choice in House races should, ceteris paribus, predict better than a simple dependence on variables that proxy the vote, such as the generic ballot question. We posited a simple but classical explanation of the 2010 House vote—the referendum model—in …
Obama and 2012: Still a Racial Cost to Pay
Will President Obama lose votes in 2012 because of racial prejudice? For 2008, we estimated, via a carefully controlled, national survey-based study, that on balance he lost about five percentage points in popular vote share due to intolerance for his race on the part of some voters. What about 2012? There are at least three possibilities: (1) the presidency has become postracial, and the vote will register no racial cost; (2) intolerance has inc…
Election Forecasting for Turbulent Times
Election forecasters face increasing turbulence in their relevant environments, making predictions more uncertain, or at least apparently so. For US presidential contests, economic performance and candidate profiles are central variables in most statistical models. These variables have exhibited large swings recently. Before the 2008 US presidential election, the economy fell into a Great Recession, and the candidate of one of the two major parti…
Proxy Forecasts: A Working Strategy
Our Proxy Model of presidential election forecasting declared, from data issued six months before the November contest, that Obama would garner 52.7% of the two-party popular vote. [See the model release in our Monkey Cage blog-post (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2012a) on September 18, 2012, and in the October issue of PS (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2012b).] Thus, that forecast called the correct winner, with a point estimate error of only 0.9 percentage points
Proxy Models and Nowcasting: U.S. Presidential Elections in the Future
U.S. presidential election forecasting has lately received considerable attention. A leading approach, statistical modeling, has undergone considerable change. We have contributed to that change in two ways, by stressing prediction over explanation and dynamics over statics. For prediction, we offer a proxy model of U.S. presidential election forecasting, based on an empirical (political economy) indicator measured six months in advance. For dyna…
Congressional Election Forecasting: Structure-X Models for 2014
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
The Political Economy Model: 2016 US Election Forecasts
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
A Recap of the 2016 Election Forecasts
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Candidates and campaigns: How they alter election forecasts
Pollster problems in the 2016 US presidential election: Vote Intention, Vote Prediction
In recent US presidential elections, there has been considerable focus on how well public opinion can forecast the outcome, and 2016 proved no exception. Pollsters and poll aggregators regularly offered numbers on the horse-race, usually pointing to a Clinton victory, which failed to occur. We argue that these polling assessments of support were misleading for at least two reasons. First, Trump voters were sorely underestimated, especially at the…
Thinking Comparatively
Previous articleNext article FreeEditors’ NoteThinking ComparativelyAlyson Cole, Robyn Marasco, and Charles TienAlyson Cole Search for more articles by this author , Robyn Marasco Search for more articles by this author , and Charles Tien Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMorePolity began publis…
Political science (47 works) · Law (35 works) · Politics (29 works) · Law (22 works) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (18 works) · Sociology (18 works) · Economics (16 works) · Presidential system (12 works) · Computer Science (10 works) · Econometrics (10 works)