John Swales
Biographic Data
| ID | 88359 |
|---|---|
| NAME | John Swales |
| GIVEN NAMES | John |
| FAMILY NAME | Swales |
| SIGNATURE | SWALES J |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Strathclyde |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 62 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 122 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 62 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1975 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2024 |
| H-INDEX | 6 |
Labour market dynamics in the era of technological advancements: The system-wide impacts of labour augmenting technological change
The employment impact of future technological change is much debated. Some commentators predict devastating job losses, while others are more sanguine, claiming that technological change raises living standards without reducing total employment. Our analysis a use a combination of partial equilibrium and dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis with neo-Keynesian characteristics. These models are employed to assess the implications o…
Devolved fiscal powers, increased competitiveness and ‘levelling up’: A simulation approach
The UK levelling up agenda includes a commitment to devolution, but there has been little attempt to model the operation of possible accompanying regional tax powers. We use computable general equilibrium simulations to analyse the local impacts of regional tax cuts. These reduce production costs, thereby stimulating regional economic activity. But the financing of any subsequent deficit and the operation of the regional labour market determines …
Policy options for funding carbon capture in regional industrial clusters: What are the impacts and trade-offs involved in compensating industry competitiveness loss
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a technically feasible deep decarbonisation solution. Still it is not widely adopted, arguably due to some basic political economy and policy challenges. One issue is the large infrastructure needs of transporting and storing CO2. However, a more fundamental challenge in the current UK industrial policy landscape is concern over introducing new costly capital requirements in industries that need to retain compe…
How fiscal policies affect energy systems: The importance of an ‘environmental social wage’
We employ a regional computable general equilibrium model to measure the impact on CO2 emissions of a balanced-budget increase in public environmental expenditure. We identify conditions under which an economic stimulus accompanied by a reduction in emissions could occur. Our results suggest that this is conceivable if the population values the environmental amenity funded by the increase in public expenditure, and if this is reflected in wage-ba…
Growth incentives and devolved fiscal systems
This paper explores the characteristics of a range of stylized devolved fiscal systems that have been applied, or proposed, as a means of funding the devolved Scottish government. The central aim is to identify those schemes that most effectively provide incentives for the pursuit of growth-promoting policies by the regional government. Using simulations with an intertemporal, computable general equilibrium model for Scotland, it did not prove po…
Resilience in a behavioural/Keynesian regional model
This paper constructs a regional dynamic macroeconomic model with an eclectic, broadly Keynesian and behavioural flavour. The model, which is parameterized on Scottish data, is used to identify the impact of expectations and business confidence on regional resilience. Simulations compare the evolution of the regional economy after a temporary negative export shock under a range of investment functions. The mainstream perfect foresight formulation…
ESP serial publications before The ESP Journal/English for Specific Purposes: Recollections and reflections of an old-timer
Students’ consumption expenditures in economic impact studies: Assumptions revisited in an input–output approach for Scotland
This paper revisits the application of impact-study methods to the consumption expenditures of students. Whilst the academic literature on the subject is mature, it has traditionally applied simplifying assumptions concerning the exogeneity of expenditures, which tend to over- or underestimate the impact of local students, depending on the particular approach adopted. To resolve this issue, we invoke the principles of input–output analysis and sp…
Can Private Vehicle-augmenting Technical Progress Reduce Household and Total Fuel Use
This paper demonstrates the importance of modelling energy-intensive household services in general, and private transportation in particular, as combinations of energy and other inputs. Initially a partial equilibrium approach is used to analyse private transport consumption as a self-produced commodity formed by household vehicle and fuel use. We particularly focus on the impact of private vehicle-augmenting technical progress in this framework.…
The external benefits of higher education
The external benefits of higher education. Regional Studies. The private-market benefits of education are widely studied at the micro-level, although the magnitude of their macroeconomic impact is disputed. However, there are additional benefits of education that are less well understood. In this paper the macroeconomic effects of external benefits of higher education are estimated using the ‘micro-to-macro’ simulation approach. Two types of exte…
The expenditure impacts of London's higher education institutions: The Role of Diverse Income Sources
This paper analyses the impact of London-based higher education institutions (HEIs) on the English economy. When we treat each of the HEIs as separate sectors in conventional input-output analysis, their expenditure impacts appear rather homogenous, with the apparent heterogeneity of their overall impacts being primarily driven by scale. However, a disaggregation of income by source reveals considerable variation in their dependence upon public f…
The added value from a general equilibrium analysis of increased efficiency in household energy use
The Regional Economic Impact of More Graduates in the Labour Market: A 'Micro-to-Macro' Analysis for Scotland
This paper explores the system-wide impact of graduates on the regional economy. Graduates enjoy a significant wage premium, often interpreted as reflecting their greater productivity relative to nongraduates. If this is so there is a clear and direct supply-side impact of higher education institution (HEI) activities on regional economies. We use an HEI-disaggregated computable general equilibrium model of Scotland to estimate the impact of the …
Regional Policy Spillovers: The National Impact of Demand-Side Policy in an Interregional Model of the UK Economy
UK regional policy has been advocated as a means of reducing regional disparities and stimulating national growth. However, there is limited understanding of the interregional and national effects of such a policy. This paper uses an interregional computable general equilibrium model to identify the national impact of a policy-induced regional demand shock under alternative labour market closures. Our simulation results suggest that regional poli…
The Expenditure Impacts of Individual Higher Education Institutions and Their Students on the Scottish Economy under a Regional Government Budget Constraint: Homogeneity or Heterogeneity
Comparing each of the higher education institutions (HEIs) as a separate sector in the Scottish input-output table suggests that their expenditure patterns are homogenous and that any apparent heterogeneity in their conventional demand impacts depends primarily on scale. However, a disaggregation of their income by source reveals a disparity in their degree of dependence upon funding from the devolved Scottish Government. Acknowledging the bindin…
Academic Writing for Graduate Students, 3rd Edition: Essential Tasks and Skills
A comprehensive guide designed to help graduate-level writers develop the skills needed for clear, effective scholarly communication. Through practical explanations, model texts, and guided tasks, the book teaches students how to analyze academic genres, structure research papers, craft strong arguments, and write with clarity and precision. It emphasizes rhetorical awareness, discipline-specific conventions, and the process of revising and refin…
Policy Scepticism’ and the Impact of Scottish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) on their Host Region: Accounting for Regional Budget Constraints under Devolution
Hermannsson K., Lisenkova K., McGregor P. G. and Swales J. K. ‘Policy scepticism’ and the impact of Scottish higher education institutions (HEIs) on their host region: accounting for regional budget constraints under devolution, Regional Studies. A ‘policy scepticism’ has emerged that challenges the results of conventional regional higher education institution (HEI) impact analyses. This paper provides a systematic critique of such scepticism. Wh…
Creating Contexts: Writing Introductions across Genres
An integrated IO and CGE approach to analysing changes in environmental trade balances
The Relative Efficiency of Automatic and Discretionary Regional Aid
Discretionary subsidies are the primary instruments for regional policy in Europe. Such aid is typically targeted at 'additional' projects: that is, projects that would not have been implemented without the subsidy, with the subsidy set at the minimum for the project to be implemented. This contrasts to automatic subsidies, where many of the aided projects are nonadditional and all eligible projects receive the same subsidy rate. The present pape…
Do increases in energy efficiency improve environmental quality and sustainability
The Barnett Allocation Mechanism: Formula Plus Influence
n This paper seeks to explain why the operation of the Barnett formula has failed to generated convergence in the per capita public expenditure levels in the four countries of the UK. Using Scotland as an example, the paper argues that a `formula plus influence? allocation mechanism has been in place. This offers improved flexibility, greater political integration and increased information flows than would be available through either a straight b…
The CO2 ‘trade balance’ between Scotland and the rest of the UK: Performing a multi-region environmental input–output analysis with limited data
Scotland, Devolution and Justice
This article focuses on devolution and justice in Scotland
Scotland the Grey: A Linked Demographic–Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of Population Ageing and Decline
Lisenkova K., McGregor P. G., Pappas N., Swales J. K., Turner K. and Wright R. E. Scotland the grey: a linked demographic–computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of the impact of population ageing and decline, Regional Studies. This paper links a multi-period economic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework with a demographic model to analyse the economic impact on Scotland of its projected ageing and declining population. …
The formation of new manufacturing establishments in the Central Clydeside and West Midlands Conurbations 1963–1972: A comparative analysis
Firn J. R. and Swales J. K. (1978) The formation of new manufacturing establishments in the Central Clydeside and West Midlands Conurbations 1963–1972: a comparative analysis, Reg. Studies 12, 199–213. Little research has been undertaken on the birth rates of new manufacturing enterprises either at a national or a regional level. This paper focuses on the role of new firms in regional economic development by analysing the formation of new manufac…
The Displacement and Multiplier Effects of Regional Selective Assistance: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis
This paper uses a hybrid approach to simulate the effects of Regional Selective Assistance (RSA) for Scotland. This combines 'industrial survey' estimation of the direct impacts and computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling of the system-wide effects. The results are compared to those derived using the method currently adopted in official evaluation studies of RSA and other regional regeneration policy instruments. The CGE approach captures …
Policy Scepticism’ and the Impact of Scottish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) on their Host Region: Accounting for Regional Budget Constraints under Devolution
Hermannsson K., Lisenkova K., McGregor P. G. and Swales J. K. ‘Policy scepticism’ and the impact of Scottish higher education institutions (HEIs) on their host region: accounting for regional budget constraints under devolution, Regional Studies. A ‘policy scepticism’ has emerged that challenges the results of conventional regional higher education institution (HEI) impact analyses. This paper provides a systematic critique of such scepticism. Wh…
The Ex Post Evaluation of Regional Selective Assistance
(1997). The Ex Post Evaluation of Regional Selective Assistance. Regional Studies: Vol. 31, No. 9, pp. 859-865
Utilizing the Literatures in Teaching the Research Paper
Peer Reviewed
The Importance of the First round in the Multiplier Process: The Impact of Civil Service Dispersal
In this paper an extended Keynesian regional multiplier model is developed and used to estimate the local impact of two proposed (but subsequently cancelled) moves in the UK programme of Government office dispersal. These moves were to have been the relocation of the Property Services Agency to Cleveland and part of the Ministry of Defence to the county of South Glamorgan. The multiplier formulation explicitly takes into account an important feat…
The Expenditure Impacts of Individual Higher Education Institutions and Their Students on the Scottish Economy under a Regional Government Budget Constraint: Homogeneity or Heterogeneity
Comparing each of the higher education institutions (HEIs) as a separate sector in the Scottish input-output table suggests that their expenditure patterns are homogenous and that any apparent heterogeneity in their conventional demand impacts depends primarily on scale. However, a disaggregation of their income by source reveals a disparity in their degree of dependence upon funding from the devolved Scottish Government. Acknowledging the bindin…
Discourse communities, genres and English as an international language
The concept of discourse community is proposed as a more functional and goal-directed grouping than either speech community or speech fellowship. Six criteria for the existence of a discourse community are outlined and then exemplified. Two claims are advanced: (1) genres are properties of discourse communities, and (2) strong levels of interpersonal relationship are not criterial for the creation of a discourse community. The second half of this…
The employment effects of a regional capital subsidy
Swales J. K. (1981) The employment effects of a regional capital subsidy, Reg. Studies 15, 263–273. In this paper, neoclassical models are developed to analyse the impact of a proportionate capital subsidy on the level of employment in a perfectly competitive and monopolistic industry. In these models the level of output, factor inputs, product price and factor prices are determined simultaneously. In both models, the sign on the change in employ…
Witchcraft and the Status of Women: A Comment
Policy options for funding carbon capture in regional industrial clusters: What are the impacts and trade-offs involved in compensating industry competitiveness loss
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a technically feasible deep decarbonisation solution. Still it is not widely adopted, arguably due to some basic political economy and policy challenges. One issue is the large infrastructure needs of transporting and storing CO2. However, a more fundamental challenge in the current UK industrial policy landscape is concern over introducing new costly capital requirements in industries that need to retain compe…
How fiscal policies affect energy systems: The importance of an ‘environmental social wage’
We employ a regional computable general equilibrium model to measure the impact on CO2 emissions of a balanced-budget increase in public environmental expenditure. We identify conditions under which an economic stimulus accompanied by a reduction in emissions could occur. Our results suggest that this is conceivable if the population values the environmental amenity funded by the increase in public expenditure, and if this is reflected in wage-ba…
Resilience in a behavioural/Keynesian regional model
This paper constructs a regional dynamic macroeconomic model with an eclectic, broadly Keynesian and behavioural flavour. The model, which is parameterized on Scottish data, is used to identify the impact of expectations and business confidence on regional resilience. Simulations compare the evolution of the regional economy after a temporary negative export shock under a range of investment functions. The mainstream perfect foresight formulation…
The external benefits of higher education
The external benefits of higher education. Regional Studies. The private-market benefits of education are widely studied at the micro-level, although the magnitude of their macroeconomic impact is disputed. However, there are additional benefits of education that are less well understood. In this paper the macroeconomic effects of external benefits of higher education are estimated using the ‘micro-to-macro’ simulation approach. Two types of exte…
The Barnett Allocation Mechanism: Formula Plus Influence
n This paper seeks to explain why the operation of the Barnett formula has failed to generated convergence in the per capita public expenditure levels in the four countries of the UK. Using Scotland as an example, the paper argues that a `formula plus influence? allocation mechanism has been in place. This offers improved flexibility, greater political integration and increased information flows than would be available through either a straight b…
Constrained Discretion’ in UK Monetary and Regional Policy
HM Treasury claims that the notion of “Constrained Discretion” which directs the effective operation of UK monetary policy applies equally to other delegated and devolved policies, such as the use of Regional Development Agencies in the delivery of UK regional policy. We question this claim from a "transactions cost politics" viewpoint. We argue that the delegation of responsibility for monetary stabilisation raises principal agent issues quite d…
The Additionality, Displacement and Substitution Effects of Factor Subsidies
In this paper, a Cournot multifirm oligopolisitc framework is used to analyze the output and employment impacts of selective factor subsidies. Additionality, displacement, and substitution effects are all separately identified. The paper argues that the methods used in existing empirical studies to identify additionality and displacement are likely to be inaccurate and that this is more problematic the more selective the subsidies are. Copyright …
Policy Review Section
In this Policy Review Section, Kim Swales of the Fraser Allender Institute, University of Strathclyde, critically evaluates the move towards a totally discretionary regional subsidy policy heralded in the 1988 White Paper. Kim Swales argues that the evaluation of policy effectiveness on the basis of Exchequer ‘cost per job’ is both wrong in principle and damaging in practice. In the second article, Ian Begg, of the Department of Applied Economics…
Area Policy Impacts: A Multiplier Analysis of Gear
This paper attempts to quantify the employment and income effects of the Glasgow Eastern Area Renewal (GEAR) programme on its target area. This is done using an augmented Keynesian multiplier approach. The multiplier model is adjusted to take into account the particular characteristics of the injection and the fact that the target area is small and well-integrated within a large conurbation. The results are disaggregated so that the impact of eac…
Growth incentives and devolved fiscal systems
This paper explores the characteristics of a range of stylized devolved fiscal systems that have been applied, or proposed, as a means of funding the devolved Scottish government. The central aim is to identify those schemes that most effectively provide incentives for the pursuit of growth-promoting policies by the regional government. Using simulations with an intertemporal, computable general equilibrium model for Scotland, it did not prove po…
Students’ consumption expenditures in economic impact studies: Assumptions revisited in an input–output approach for Scotland
This paper revisits the application of impact-study methods to the consumption expenditures of students. Whilst the academic literature on the subject is mature, it has traditionally applied simplifying assumptions concerning the exogeneity of expenditures, which tend to over- or underestimate the impact of local students, depending on the particular approach adopted. To resolve this issue, we invoke the principles of input–output analysis and sp…
The Regional Economic Impact of More Graduates in the Labour Market: A 'Micro-to-Macro' Analysis for Scotland
This paper explores the system-wide impact of graduates on the regional economy. Graduates enjoy a significant wage premium, often interpreted as reflecting their greater productivity relative to nongraduates. If this is so there is a clear and direct supply-side impact of higher education institution (HEI) activities on regional economies. We use an HEI-disaggregated computable general equilibrium model of Scotland to estimate the impact of the …
Scotland the Grey: A Linked Demographic–Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of Population Ageing and Decline
Lisenkova K., McGregor P. G., Pappas N., Swales J. K., Turner K. and Wright R. E. Scotland the grey: a linked demographic–computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of the impact of population ageing and decline, Regional Studies. This paper links a multi-period economic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework with a demographic model to analyse the economic impact on Scotland of its projected ageing and declining population. …
The Information Requirements for an Effective Regional Policy: A Critique of the Allsopp Review
This paper considers the recommendations of the Allsopp Review on the adequacy of UK regional economic statistics. It raises general concerns over the philosophy underpinning the review and specific questions as to whether the review's recommendations are sufficient to operate effectively the present UK regional policy regime. In particular, the institutional arrangements that make up the 'new localism' in UK regional policy have data requirement…
Factor Subsidies, Employment Generation, and Cost per Job: A Partial Equilibrium Approach
Factor subsidies in a perfectly competitive setting are analysed. A very general model is used to derive expressions for the effect of a factor subsidy on the price and quantity of output and the two factor inputs. These expressions are differentiated to generate qualitative results for the impact of changes in the product-demand, production-function, and factor-supply parameters on the subsidy effects. A similar procedure is used to investigate …
Regional Multipliers and Demand Leakages at Establishment Level: A Comment
Regional Elasticities of Substitution in the United Kingdom in 1968: A Comment
Lord Hale, Witches and Rape
The formation of new manufacturing establishments in the Central Clydeside and West Midlands Conurbations 1963–1972: A comparative analysis
Firn J. R. and Swales J. K. (1978) The formation of new manufacturing establishments in the Central Clydeside and West Midlands Conurbations 1963–1972: a comparative analysis, Reg. Studies 12, 199–213. Little research has been undertaken on the birth rates of new manufacturing enterprises either at a national or a regional level. This paper focuses on the role of new firms in regional economic development by analysing the formation of new manufac…
Relative Factor Prices and Regional Specialisation in the United Kingdom
Witchcraft and the Status of Women: A Comment
On the Logical Consistency of Sraffa's Economic Theory: A Comment on Savran and Steedman
In a recent article in Capital and C/ass, Savran (1979, p . 131) argues that ' . . . Sraffa's economics is inconsistent and untenable even within its own theoretical framework' and ' . . . that logical consistency requires that Sraffa's theory itself be abandoned' (Savran, 1979, p . 137) . In neoRicardian analysis, the wage/profit frontier for the economic system as a whole is constructed using data for the technological conditions of production …
The employment effects of a regional capital subsidy
Swales J. K. (1981) The employment effects of a regional capital subsidy, Reg. Studies 15, 263–273. In this paper, neoclassical models are developed to analyse the impact of a proportionate capital subsidy on the level of employment in a perfectly competitive and monopolistic industry. In these models the level of output, factor inputs, product price and factor prices are determined simultaneously. In both models, the sign on the change in employ…
Tibbetts's Theory of Rationality and Scottish Witchcraft
The Importance of the First round in the Multiplier Process: The Impact of Civil Service Dispersal
In this paper an extended Keynesian regional multiplier model is developed and used to estimate the local impact of two proposed (but subsequently cancelled) moves in the UK programme of Government office dispersal. These moves were to have been the relocation of the Property Services Agency to Cleveland and part of the Ministry of Defence to the county of South Glamorgan. The multiplier formulation explicitly takes into account an important feat…
Deviance Amplification, Control Waves and Difference Equations
Rationality and the Belief in Witches: A Rejoinder to Tibbetts
ESP in perspective
The Effects of Modifying the Formality Level of ESL Composition Questions
Peer Reviewed
Area Policy Impacts: A Multiplier Analysis of Gear
This paper attempts to quantify the employment and income effects of the Glasgow Eastern Area Renewal (GEAR) programme on its target area. This is done using an augmented Keynesian multiplier approach. The multiplier model is adjusted to take into account the particular characteristics of the injection and the fact that the target area is small and well-integrated within a large conurbation. The results are disaggregated so that the impact of eac…
Utilizing the Literatures in Teaching the Research Paper
Peer Reviewed
The Repeated Application of Shift-Share: A Structural Explanation of Regional Growth
The views put forward by Fothergill and Gudgin that structural factors account for variation in the growth rates of UK regions, and that such structural factors are identified by the repeated application of shift-share are examined. First, the conditions under which the growth rate of a region can be said to be structurally determined are considered. These conditions are not only restrictive, but are also at odds with the expressed views of those…
Years of the Tesol Quarterly
Peer Reviewed
Discourse communities, genres and English as an international language
The concept of discourse community is proposed as a more functional and goal-directed grouping than either speech community or speech fellowship. Six criteria for the existence of a discourse community are outlined and then exemplified. Two claims are advanced: (1) genres are properties of discourse communities, and (2) strong levels of interpersonal relationship are not criterial for the creation of a discourse community. The second half of this…
Policy Review Section
In this Policy Review Section, Kim Swales of the Fraser Allender Institute, University of Strathclyde, critically evaluates the move towards a totally discretionary regional subsidy policy heralded in the 1988 White Paper. Kim Swales argues that the evaluation of policy effectiveness on the basis of Exchequer ‘cost per job’ is both wrong in principle and damaging in practice. In the second article, Ian Begg, of the Department of Applied Economics…
An Economic Analysis of the Revised Regional Development Grant Scheme
This paper examines the factors underlying the take-up and effectiveness of the revised Regional Development Grant scheme, an instrument of U.K. regional policy operated between 1984 and 1988. Assistance under this scheme was available either as a proportionate capital grant or as a lump-sum marginal employment subsidy. Using a cost function approach and a Cobb-Douglas production function, conditions are derived determining take-up. Simulation su…
The Local Employment Impact of a Hypermarket: A Modified Multiplier Analysis Incorporating the Effect of Lower Retail Prices
MACDONALD R. L. and SWALES J. K. (1991) The local employment impact of a hypermarket: a modified multiplier analysis incorporating the effect of lower retail prices, Reg. Studies 25, 155–162. This paper modifies the standard Keynesian regional multiplier model to incorporate the income effects of local price changes. The model is developed in the context of the evaluation of the impact of a hypermarket, though the analysis could be modified to de…
The Birds of Washtenaw County, Michigan
Imperfect Competition in Regional Labour Markets: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis
The system-wide impacts of imperfect competition in the regional labour market are examined by means of a macro-micro simulation model (AMOS) parameterised on Scottish data. A number of theories of the operation of the regional labour market are reviewed and it is indicated how these can be operationalised within AMOS through the adoption of different labour-market closures. Two sets of simulations are performed. The first involves nominal and re…
A Game Theoretic Approach to Subsidizing Employment
SWALES J. K. (1993) A game theoretic approach to subsidizing employment, Reg. Studies 27, 109–119. This paper presents a simple game theoretic approach to the Government's decision to subsidize in order to safeguard employment. Central to the analysis is the notion that a government's commitment to subsidize will affect worker wage setting behaviour, and encourage rent seeking. A number of variants of the basic game are developed. Rules are adduc…
Economics (41 works) · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth (25 works) · Macroeconomics (22 works) · Political science (21 works) · Sociology (20 works) · Microeconomics (16 works) · Computable general equilibrium (15 works) · Regional Economics and Spatial Analysis (15 works) · Computer Science (14 works) · Public economics (13 works)