Tom A Moultrie
Biographic Data
| ID | 93093 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Tom A Moultrie |
| GIVEN NAMES | Tom A |
| FAMILY NAME | Moultrie |
| SIGNATURE | MOULTRIE T A |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Cape Town |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-1949-535X |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 15 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 201 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 15 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2001 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2020 |
| H-INDEX | 6 |
Pathways to Low Fertility: 50 Years of Limitation, Curtailment, and Postponement of Childbearing
This study applies survival analysis to the birth histories from 317 national surveys to model pathways to low fertility in 83 less-developed countries between 1965 and 2014. It presents period measures of parity progression, the length of birth intervals and total fertility that have been standardized fully for age, parity, and interval duration. It also examines parity-specific trends in the proportion of women who want no more children. Outsid…
Démographie, démographes et « révolution des données » en Afrique
Les Objectifs de développement durable (ODD) et la « révolution des données » présentent des défis particuliers sur le plan de la collecte, de l’analyse, de la diffusion et de l’accès aux données en Afrique. Cet article interroge ces multiples défis, du point de vue de la communauté des démographes, et les situe dans une théorie plus générale de l’économie politique des statistiques publiques. L’auteur conclut que sans investissements conséquents…
Demographic Techniques: Indirect Estimation
Estimating the effect of HIV/Aids on fertility among Malawian women using demographic and health survey data
Several studies have shown that HIV is an important distal factor that affects a woman's fertility. This study investigates the effect of HIV on fertility among Malawian women using data from the 2004 and 2010 demographic and health surveys. Specifically, the study assesses fertility differentials between HIV-positive and HIV-negative women and the changes in the relationship between HIV and fertility during the study period. Age-specific fertili…
Teenage Childbearing and Educational Attainment in South Africa
The relationship between teenage childbearing and school attainment is investigated using nationally representative longitudinal data drawn from South Africa's National Income Dynamics Study. The analysis focuses on the outcomes by 2010 of a panel of 673 young women who were aged 15–18 and childless in 2008. Controlling for other factors, girls who went on to give birth had twice the odds of dropping out of school by 2010 and nearly five times th…
Distinguishing the Impact of Postponement, Spacing and Stopping on Birth Intervals: Evidence From a Model With Heterogeneous Fecundity
This paper investigates the impact on birth intervals of three distinct birth control strategies: stopping childbearing, spacing births and the postponement of further childbearing for reasons unrelated to women's family-building histories. A macro-simulation model of the family-building process is described that incorporates heterogeneity in fecundability. This model is used to demonstrate that the postponement of further childbearing has a dist…
Birth intervals, postponement, and fertility decline in Africa: A new type of transition
We investigated birth-interval dynamics in 24 African countries using data from 76 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted since 1986. Controlling for selection bias in the birth-history data using the Brass-Juárez method and regression models produced almost identical results. Birth intervals have lengthened in every country examined. This analysis uncovered a distinctive and previously undocumented pattern of childbearing that is prevalent acr…
Used for ill; used for good: A century of collecting data on race in South Africa
Data on race have been collected in South African censuses for a century. We examine the role played by the census in solidifying race as a social statistic and show that, in contrast to the majority of situations, operational and legislative factors rendered the census largely unimportant as a vehicle for doing this. Since 1994, race has been entirely self-reported and not subject to state reinterpretation. We examine the implications of this fo…
Dispensing with marriage: Marital and partnership trends in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa 2000-2006
This paper describes marriage and partnership patterns and trends in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa from 2000-2006. The study is based on longitudinal, population-based data collected by the Africa Centre demographic surveillance system. We consider
Refining the Criteria for Stalled Fertility Declines: An Application to Rural KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa, 1990‐2005
Stalled fertility declines have been identified in several regions across the developing world, but the current conceptualization of a stalled fertility decline is poorly theorized and does not lend itself to objective measurement. We propose a more rigorous and statistically testable definition of stalled fertility decline that can be applied to time‐series data. We then illustrate the utility of our definition through its application to data fr…
On Postponement and Birth Intervals
Much of the literature on fertility transition presumes that birth control is practiced either to limit family size or to space births. This article argues that women also use birth control to postpone pregnancy. Postponement is not synonymous with spacing. It arises when women delay their next birth for indefinite periods for reasons unrelated to the age of their youngest child, but without deciding not to have any more children. Postponement ha…
Sources of error and bias in methods of fertility estimation contingent on the P/F ratio in a time of declining fertility and rising mortality
Almost all commonly used indirect fertility estimation methods rely on the P/F ratio. As originally conceived, the ratio compares cumulated cohort fertility with cumulated period fertility on the basis of three, fairly strong, assumptions. The intentio
Racism and reproduction: Population rhetoric in South Africa, 1900-1974
While a huge literature exists on the politics, practice, economics and social implications of apartheid, a literature on the centrality of demographic concerns to the formulation of apartheid poli
The South African fertility decline: Evidence from two censuses and a Demographic and Health Survey
Inadequate data and apartheid policies have meant that, until recently, most demographers have not had the opportunity to investigate the level of, and trend in, the fertility of South African women. The 1996 South Africa Census and the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey provide the first widely available and nationally representative demographic data on South Africa since 1970. Using these data, this paper describes the South African fertility d…
Fertility and Living Arrangements in South Africa
This paper investigates fertility among African women in South Africa. Variation in fertility levels is influenced by such factors as rural or urban residence, and level of education and household income. Differential fertility between women of different language groups is accounted for largely by underlying socio-economic factors. A further factor investigated by this paper is the impact of household structure on fertility in South Africa using …
Dispensing with marriage: Marital and partnership trends in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa 2000-2006
This paper describes marriage and partnership patterns and trends in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa from 2000-2006. The study is based on longitudinal, population-based data collected by the Africa Centre demographic surveillance system. We consider
On Postponement and Birth Intervals
Much of the literature on fertility transition presumes that birth control is practiced either to limit family size or to space births. This article argues that women also use birth control to postpone pregnancy. Postponement is not synonymous with spacing. It arises when women delay their next birth for indefinite periods for reasons unrelated to the age of their youngest child, but without deciding not to have any more children. Postponement ha…
Birth intervals, postponement, and fertility decline in Africa: A new type of transition
We investigated birth-interval dynamics in 24 African countries using data from 76 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted since 1986. Controlling for selection bias in the birth-history data using the Brass-Juárez method and regression models produced almost identical results. Birth intervals have lengthened in every country examined. This analysis uncovered a distinctive and previously undocumented pattern of childbearing that is prevalent acr…
Pathways to Low Fertility: 50 Years of Limitation, Curtailment, and Postponement of Childbearing
This study applies survival analysis to the birth histories from 317 national surveys to model pathways to low fertility in 83 less-developed countries between 1965 and 2014. It presents period measures of parity progression, the length of birth intervals and total fertility that have been standardized fully for age, parity, and interval duration. It also examines parity-specific trends in the proportion of women who want no more children. Outsid…
The South African fertility decline: Evidence from two censuses and a Demographic and Health Survey
Inadequate data and apartheid policies have meant that, until recently, most demographers have not had the opportunity to investigate the level of, and trend in, the fertility of South African women. The 1996 South Africa Census and the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey provide the first widely available and nationally representative demographic data on South Africa since 1970. Using these data, this paper describes the South African fertility d…
Refining the Criteria for Stalled Fertility Declines: An Application to Rural KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa, 1990‐2005
Stalled fertility declines have been identified in several regions across the developing world, but the current conceptualization of a stalled fertility decline is poorly theorized and does not lend itself to objective measurement. We propose a more rigorous and statistically testable definition of stalled fertility decline that can be applied to time‐series data. We then illustrate the utility of our definition through its application to data fr…
Teenage Childbearing and Educational Attainment in South Africa
The relationship between teenage childbearing and school attainment is investigated using nationally representative longitudinal data drawn from South Africa's National Income Dynamics Study. The analysis focuses on the outcomes by 2010 of a panel of 673 young women who were aged 15–18 and childless in 2008. Controlling for other factors, girls who went on to give birth had twice the odds of dropping out of school by 2010 and nearly five times th…
Sources of error and bias in methods of fertility estimation contingent on the P/F ratio in a time of declining fertility and rising mortality
Almost all commonly used indirect fertility estimation methods rely on the P/F ratio. As originally conceived, the ratio compares cumulated cohort fertility with cumulated period fertility on the basis of three, fairly strong, assumptions. The intentio
Racism and reproduction: Population rhetoric in South Africa, 1900-1974
While a huge literature exists on the politics, practice, economics and social implications of apartheid, a literature on the centrality of demographic concerns to the formulation of apartheid poli
Fertility and Living Arrangements in South Africa
This paper investigates fertility among African women in South Africa. Variation in fertility levels is influenced by such factors as rural or urban residence, and level of education and household income. Differential fertility between women of different language groups is accounted for largely by underlying socio-economic factors. A further factor investigated by this paper is the impact of household structure on fertility in South Africa using …
Démographie, démographes et « révolution des données » en Afrique
Les Objectifs de développement durable (ODD) et la « révolution des données » présentent des défis particuliers sur le plan de la collecte, de l’analyse, de la diffusion et de l’accès aux données en Afrique. Cet article interroge ces multiples défis, du point de vue de la communauté des démographes, et les situe dans une théorie plus générale de l’économie politique des statistiques publiques. L’auteur conclut que sans investissements conséquents…
Used for ill; used for good: A century of collecting data on race in South Africa
Data on race have been collected in South African censuses for a century. We examine the role played by the census in solidifying race as a social statistic and show that, in contrast to the majority of situations, operational and legislative factors rendered the census largely unimportant as a vehicle for doing this. Since 1994, race has been entirely self-reported and not subject to state reinterpretation. We examine the implications of this fo…
Fertility and Living Arrangements in South Africa
This paper investigates fertility among African women in South Africa. Variation in fertility levels is influenced by such factors as rural or urban residence, and level of education and household income. Differential fertility between women of different language groups is accounted for largely by underlying socio-economic factors. A further factor investigated by this paper is the impact of household structure on fertility in South Africa using …
The South African fertility decline: Evidence from two censuses and a Demographic and Health Survey
Inadequate data and apartheid policies have meant that, until recently, most demographers have not had the opportunity to investigate the level of, and trend in, the fertility of South African women. The 1996 South Africa Census and the 1998 Demographic and Health Survey provide the first widely available and nationally representative demographic data on South Africa since 1970. Using these data, this paper describes the South African fertility d…
Racism and reproduction: Population rhetoric in South Africa, 1900-1974
While a huge literature exists on the politics, practice, economics and social implications of apartheid, a literature on the centrality of demographic concerns to the formulation of apartheid poli
Refining the Criteria for Stalled Fertility Declines: An Application to Rural KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa, 1990‐2005
Stalled fertility declines have been identified in several regions across the developing world, but the current conceptualization of a stalled fertility decline is poorly theorized and does not lend itself to objective measurement. We propose a more rigorous and statistically testable definition of stalled fertility decline that can be applied to time‐series data. We then illustrate the utility of our definition through its application to data fr…
On Postponement and Birth Intervals
Much of the literature on fertility transition presumes that birth control is practiced either to limit family size or to space births. This article argues that women also use birth control to postpone pregnancy. Postponement is not synonymous with spacing. It arises when women delay their next birth for indefinite periods for reasons unrelated to the age of their youngest child, but without deciding not to have any more children. Postponement ha…
Sources of error and bias in methods of fertility estimation contingent on the P/F ratio in a time of declining fertility and rising mortality
Almost all commonly used indirect fertility estimation methods rely on the P/F ratio. As originally conceived, the ratio compares cumulated cohort fertility with cumulated period fertility on the basis of three, fairly strong, assumptions. The intentio
Dispensing with marriage: Marital and partnership trends in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa 2000-2006
This paper describes marriage and partnership patterns and trends in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa from 2000-2006. The study is based on longitudinal, population-based data collected by the Africa Centre demographic surveillance system. We consider
Birth intervals, postponement, and fertility decline in Africa: A new type of transition
We investigated birth-interval dynamics in 24 African countries using data from 76 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted since 1986. Controlling for selection bias in the birth-history data using the Brass-Juárez method and regression models produced almost identical results. Birth intervals have lengthened in every country examined. This analysis uncovered a distinctive and previously undocumented pattern of childbearing that is prevalent acr…
Used for ill; used for good: A century of collecting data on race in South Africa
Data on race have been collected in South African censuses for a century. We examine the role played by the census in solidifying race as a social statistic and show that, in contrast to the majority of situations, operational and legislative factors rendered the census largely unimportant as a vehicle for doing this. Since 1994, race has been entirely self-reported and not subject to state reinterpretation. We examine the implications of this fo…
Distinguishing the Impact of Postponement, Spacing and Stopping on Birth Intervals: Evidence From a Model With Heterogeneous Fecundity
This paper investigates the impact on birth intervals of three distinct birth control strategies: stopping childbearing, spacing births and the postponement of further childbearing for reasons unrelated to women's family-building histories. A macro-simulation model of the family-building process is described that incorporates heterogeneity in fecundability. This model is used to demonstrate that the postponement of further childbearing has a dist…
Demographic Techniques: Indirect Estimation
Estimating the effect of HIV/Aids on fertility among Malawian women using demographic and health survey data
Several studies have shown that HIV is an important distal factor that affects a woman's fertility. This study investigates the effect of HIV on fertility among Malawian women using data from the 2004 and 2010 demographic and health surveys. Specifically, the study assesses fertility differentials between HIV-positive and HIV-negative women and the changes in the relationship between HIV and fertility during the study period. Age-specific fertili…
Teenage Childbearing and Educational Attainment in South Africa
The relationship between teenage childbearing and school attainment is investigated using nationally representative longitudinal data drawn from South Africa's National Income Dynamics Study. The analysis focuses on the outcomes by 2010 of a panel of 673 young women who were aged 15–18 and childless in 2008. Controlling for other factors, girls who went on to give birth had twice the odds of dropping out of school by 2010 and nearly five times th…
Démographie, démographes et « révolution des données » en Afrique
Les Objectifs de développement durable (ODD) et la « révolution des données » présentent des défis particuliers sur le plan de la collecte, de l’analyse, de la diffusion et de l’accès aux données en Afrique. Cet article interroge ces multiples défis, du point de vue de la communauté des démographes, et les situe dans une théorie plus générale de l’économie politique des statistiques publiques. L’auteur conclut que sans investissements conséquents…
Pathways to Low Fertility: 50 Years of Limitation, Curtailment, and Postponement of Childbearing
This study applies survival analysis to the birth histories from 317 national surveys to model pathways to low fertility in 83 less-developed countries between 1965 and 2014. It presents period measures of parity progression, the length of birth intervals and total fertility that have been standardized fully for age, parity, and interval duration. It also examines parity-specific trends in the proportion of women who want no more children. Outsid…
Population (12 works) · Demography (11 works) · Sociology (10 works) · Fertility (9 works) · Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences (8 works) · Economics (8 works) · Geography (8 works) · Demography (6 works) · Family Dynamics and Relationships (6 works) · Family planning (5 works)