James B Elsner
Biographic Data
| ID | 970120 |
|---|---|
| NAME | James B Elsner |
| GIVEN NAMES | James B |
| FAMILY NAME | Elsner |
| SIGNATURE | ELSNER J B |
| AFFILIATIONS | Florida State University |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-6805-7431 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 11 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 2 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 10 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 1 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2008 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2021 |
| H-INDEX | 1 |
Estimating ‘outbreak’-level tornado counts and casualties from environmental variables
Environmental variables are routinely used in estimating when and where tornadoes are likely to occur, but more work is needed to understand how tornado and casualty counts of severe weather outbreak vary with the larger scale environmental factors. Here the authors demonstrate a method to quantify ‘outbreak’-level tornado and casualty counts with respect to variations in large-scale environmental factors. They do this by fitting negative binomia…
What's the problem with disaster? Anthropology, social work, and the qualitative slot
On March 3, 2019, an EF4 tornado devastated the rural Alabama communities of Beauregard and Smith Station, killing 23 people and causing direct injuries to another 97. This storm was unusually devastating, with twice the predicted casualty rate based on the tornado’s power, the impacted population, and impacted housing stock. In this paper, we apply qualitative methods from anthropology, geography, and planning to better understand the social con…
Interpretation of the statistical/dynamical prediction for seasonal tropical storm frequency in the western North Pacific
Despite the improving techniques for seasonal prediction of tropical storm frequency, attention seems focused on accuracy rather than on forecast interpretation. This study aims to show how seasonal predictions from a hybrid model, i.e. statistical/dynamical model, can be interpreted with probability distributions. The tropical storm frequency in the western North Pacific is modeled with environmental predictors through multiple linear regression…
Unusually Devastating Tornadoes in the United States
Previous research has identified a number of physical, socioeconomic, and demographic factors related to tornado casualty rates. There remain gaps in our understanding of community-level vulnerabilities to tornadoes. Here a framework is provided for systematically identifying the most unusually devastating tornadoes, defined as those where the observed number of casualties far exceeds the predicted number. Results show that unusually devastating …
Influence of global warming on the rapid intensification of western North Pacific tropical cyclones
The rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with global warming is a matter of concern worldwide. This study examines how the RI across the western North Pacific is related to the so-called ‘efficiency of intensity’ (EINT) environment induced by global warming. The EINT condition has been characterized by a strong anomalous high over an unstable tropical atmosphere, which supports efficient intensification. Here, we show …
Structural Property Losses from Tornadoes in Florida
Property losses from tornadoes in Florida are estimated by combining a 1-km spatial grid of structural values from the Department of Revenue’s 2014 cadastral database with historical tornado events since 1950. There are 91 180 grid cells in the state with at least some structural value. Total and residential structural values total $942 billion and $619 billion, respectively. Over the period 1950 through 2015 there were 3233 individual tornado re…
New Methods in Tornado Climatology
How climate change might affect tornadoes remains an open scientific question. Climatological studies are often contested due to inconsistencies in the available data. Statistical methods are used to overcome some of the data limitations. A few of these methods including using the proportion of tornadoes occurring on big tornado days, estimating tornado energy from the damage path, and modeling counts spatially are described here. The methods mov…
Daily tornado frequency distributions in the United States
The authors examine daily tornado counts in the United States over the period 1994–2012 and find strong evidence for a power-law relationship in the distribution frequency. The scaling exponent is estimated at 1.64 (0.019 s.e.) giving a per tornado-day probability of 0.014% (return period of 71 years) that a tornado day produces 145 tornadoes as was observed on 27 April 2011. They also find that the total number of tornadoes by damage category on…
The Decreasing Population Bias in Tornado Reports across the Central Plains
Tornado–hazard assessment is hampered by a population bias in the available data. Here, the authors demonstrate a way to statistically quantify this bias using the ratio of city to country report densities. The expected report densities come from a model of the number of reports as a function of distance from the nearest city center. On average since 1950, reports near cities with populations of at least 1000 in a 5.5° latitude × 5.5° longitude r…
Hurricanes and Climate Change
The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones
Unusually Devastating Tornadoes in the United States
Previous research has identified a number of physical, socioeconomic, and demographic factors related to tornado casualty rates. There remain gaps in our understanding of community-level vulnerabilities to tornadoes. Here a framework is provided for systematically identifying the most unusually devastating tornadoes, defined as those where the observed number of casualties far exceeds the predicted number. Results show that unusually devastating …
The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones
Hurricanes and Climate Change
The Decreasing Population Bias in Tornado Reports across the Central Plains
Tornado–hazard assessment is hampered by a population bias in the available data. Here, the authors demonstrate a way to statistically quantify this bias using the ratio of city to country report densities. The expected report densities come from a model of the number of reports as a function of distance from the nearest city center. On average since 1950, reports near cities with populations of at least 1000 in a 5.5° latitude × 5.5° longitude r…
Daily tornado frequency distributions in the United States
The authors examine daily tornado counts in the United States over the period 1994–2012 and find strong evidence for a power-law relationship in the distribution frequency. The scaling exponent is estimated at 1.64 (0.019 s.e.) giving a per tornado-day probability of 0.014% (return period of 71 years) that a tornado day produces 145 tornadoes as was observed on 27 April 2011. They also find that the total number of tornadoes by damage category on…
New Methods in Tornado Climatology
How climate change might affect tornadoes remains an open scientific question. Climatological studies are often contested due to inconsistencies in the available data. Statistical methods are used to overcome some of the data limitations. A few of these methods including using the proportion of tornadoes occurring on big tornado days, estimating tornado energy from the damage path, and modeling counts spatially are described here. The methods mov…
Structural Property Losses from Tornadoes in Florida
Property losses from tornadoes in Florida are estimated by combining a 1-km spatial grid of structural values from the Department of Revenue’s 2014 cadastral database with historical tornado events since 1950. There are 91 180 grid cells in the state with at least some structural value. Total and residential structural values total $942 billion and $619 billion, respectively. Over the period 1950 through 2015 there were 3233 individual tornado re…
Influence of global warming on the rapid intensification of western North Pacific tropical cyclones
The rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with global warming is a matter of concern worldwide. This study examines how the RI across the western North Pacific is related to the so-called ‘efficiency of intensity’ (EINT) environment induced by global warming. The EINT condition has been characterized by a strong anomalous high over an unstable tropical atmosphere, which supports efficient intensification. Here, we show …
Interpretation of the statistical/dynamical prediction for seasonal tropical storm frequency in the western North Pacific
Despite the improving techniques for seasonal prediction of tropical storm frequency, attention seems focused on accuracy rather than on forecast interpretation. This study aims to show how seasonal predictions from a hybrid model, i.e. statistical/dynamical model, can be interpreted with probability distributions. The tropical storm frequency in the western North Pacific is modeled with environmental predictors through multiple linear regression…
Unusually Devastating Tornadoes in the United States
Previous research has identified a number of physical, socioeconomic, and demographic factors related to tornado casualty rates. There remain gaps in our understanding of community-level vulnerabilities to tornadoes. Here a framework is provided for systematically identifying the most unusually devastating tornadoes, defined as those where the observed number of casualties far exceeds the predicted number. Results show that unusually devastating …
Estimating ‘outbreak’-level tornado counts and casualties from environmental variables
Environmental variables are routinely used in estimating when and where tornadoes are likely to occur, but more work is needed to understand how tornado and casualty counts of severe weather outbreak vary with the larger scale environmental factors. Here the authors demonstrate a method to quantify ‘outbreak’-level tornado and casualty counts with respect to variations in large-scale environmental factors. They do this by fitting negative binomia…
What's the problem with disaster? Anthropology, social work, and the qualitative slot
On March 3, 2019, an EF4 tornado devastated the rural Alabama communities of Beauregard and Smith Station, killing 23 people and causing direct injuries to another 97. This storm was unusually devastating, with twice the predicted casualty rate based on the tornado’s power, the impacted population, and impacted housing stock. In this paper, we apply qualitative methods from anthropology, geography, and planning to better understand the social con…
Geography (11 works) · Environmental Science (9 works) · Climatology (8 works) · Meteorology (8 works) · Climate variability and models (7 works) · Mathematics (7 works) · Statistics (7 works) · Tornado (7 works) · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research (7 works) · Geology (6 works)