Kyle L Marquardt
Biographic Data
| ID | 974006 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Kyle L Marquardt |
| GIVEN NAMES | Kyle L |
| FAMILY NAME | Marquardt |
| SIGNATURE | MARQUARDT K L |
| AFFILIATIONS | University of Bergen |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-2043-5880 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 21 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 337 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 21 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2011 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 9 |
Experts, coders and crowds: An analysis of substitutability
Political scientists increasingly use crowdworkers to produce data, predominantly in the context of coding researcher-curated text or to retrieve simple data from the internet. In this article, we provide a theoretical and empirical basis for understanding when crowdworkers can provide data of sufficient quality to substitute for other types of coders. First, we introduce a typology of data-producing actors – experts, trained coders and crowds – …
V-Dem Codebook v14
Conceptual and Measurement Issues in Assessing Democratic Backsliding
During the past decade, analyses drawing on several democracy measures have shown a global trend of democratic retrenchment. While these democracy measures use radically different methodologies, most partially or fully rely on subjective judgments to produce estimates of the level of democracy within states. Such projects continuously grapple with balancing conceptual coverage with the potential for bias (Munck and Verkuilen 2002; Przeworski et a…
Endogenous Popularity: How Perceptions of Support Affect the Popularity of Authoritarian Regimes
Being popular makes it easier for dictators to govern. A growing body of scholarship therefore focuses on the factors that influence authoritarian popularity. However, it is possible that the perception of popularity itself affects incumbent approval in autocracies. We use framing experiments embedded in four surveys in Russia to examine this phenomenon. These experiments reveal that manipulating information-and thereby perceptions-about Russian …
Is Putin’s popularity (still) real? A cautionary note on using list experiments to measure popularity in authoritarian regimes
Opinion polls suggest that Vladimir Putin has broad support in Russia, but there are concerns that some respondents may be lying to pollsters. Using list experiments, we revisit our earlier work on support for Putin to explore his popularity between late 2020 and mid-2022. Our findings paint an ambiguous portrait. A naive interpretation of our estimates implies that Putin was 10 to 20 percentage points less popular than opinion polls suggest. How…
Estimating latent traits from expert surveys: An Analysis of Sensitivity to Data-Generating Process
Models for converting expert-coded data to estimates of latent concepts assume different data-generating processes (DGPs). In this paper, we simulate ecologically valid data according to different assumptions, and examine the degree to which common methods for aggregating expert-coded data (1) recover true values and (2) construct appropriate coverage intervals. We find that the mean and both hierarchical Aldrich–McKelvey (A–M) scaling and hierar…
Language, Ethnicity, and Separatism: Survey Results from Two Post-Soviet Regions
Scholars often use language to proxy ethnic identity in studies of conflict and separatism. This conflation of language and ethnicity is misleading: language can cut across ethnic divides and itself has a strong link to identity and social mobility. Language can therefore influence political preferences independently of ethnicity. Results from an original survey of two post-Soviet regions support these claims. Statistical analyses demonstrate tha…
Constraining Governments: New Indices of Vertical, Horizontal, and Diagonal Accountability
Accountability—constraints on a government’s use of political power—is one of the cornerstones of good governance. However, conceptual stretching and a lack of reliable measures have limited cross-national research on this concept. To address this research gap, we use V-Dem data and innovative Bayesian methods to develop new indices of accountability and its subtypes: the extent to which governments are accountable to citizens (vertical accountab…
How and how much does expert error matter? Implications for quantitative peace research
Expert-coded datasets provide scholars with otherwise unavailable data on important concepts. However, expert coders vary in their reliability and scale perception, potentially resulting in substantial measurement error. These concerns are acute in expert coding of key concepts for peace research. Here I examine (1) the implications of these concerns for applied statistical analyses, and (2) the degree to which different modeling strategies ameli…
V-Dem Codebook V9
What makes experts reliable? Expert reliability and the estimation of latent traits
Experts code latent quantities for many influential political science datasets. Although scholars are aware of the importance of accounting for variation in expert reliability when aggregating such data, they have not systematically explored either the factors affecting expert reliability or the degree to which these factors influence estimates of latent concepts. Here we provide a template for examining potential correlates of expert reliability…
Introducing the Historical Varieties of Democracy dataset: Political institutions in the long 19th century
The Historical Varieties of Democracy dataset (Historical V-Dem) contains about 260 indicators, both factual and evaluative, describing various aspects of political regimes and state institutions. The dataset covers 91 polities globally - including most large, sovereign states, as well as some semi-sovereign entities and large colonies - from 1789 to 1920 for many cases. The majority of the indicators come from the Varieties of Democracy dataset,…
The V-Dem Measurement Model: Latent Variable Analysis for Cross-National and Cross-Temporal Expert-Coded Dataa
The regional roots of Russia’s political regime
In The regional roots of Russia’s political regime, William M Reisinger and Bryon J Moraski provide an exhaustive account of political trends across Russia’s federal regions, as well as the interpl
IRT Models for Expert-Coded Panel Data
Data sets quantifying phenomena of social-scientific interest often use multiple experts to code latent concepts. While it remains standard practice to report the average score across experts, experts likely vary in both their expertise and their interpretation of question scales. As a result, the mean may be an inaccurate statistic. Item-response theory (IRT) models provide an intuitive method for taking these forms of expert disagreement into a…
Xenophobia on the Rise? Temporal and Regional Trends in Xenophobic Attitudes in Russia
Identity, Social Mobility, and Ethnic Mobilization: Language and the Disintegration of the Soviet Union
The disintegration of the Soviet Union is an essential case for the study of ethnic politics and identity-based mobilization. However, analyses in this article demonstrate that commonly used measures of ethnic diversity and politically relevant group concentration show little consistent relationship with events of ethnic mobilization in Soviet regions during the period 1987-1992. In contrast, the proportion of a regional population that did not s…
Is Putin’s popularity real
Vladimir Putin has managed to achieve strikingly high public approval ratings throughout his time as president and prime minister of Russia. But is his popularity real, or are respondents lying to pollsters? We conducted a series of list experiments in early 2015 to estimate support for Putin while allowing respondents to maintain ambiguity about whether they personally do so. Our estimates suggest support for Putin of approximately 80%, which is…
Ethnicity as a Variable: An Assessment of Measures and Data Sets of Ethnicity and Related Identities
Objective With the proliferation of new data sets and measures of identity‐based diversity, especially regarding ethnicity, it is essential that scholars who use these data sets on “ethnicity” understand their theoretical underpinnings, as well as their points of convergence and divergence. Methods We conduct a review of existing cross‐national measures of ethnic diversity. Results Different data sets involve inclusion boundaries for groups that …
Stabilization and symbolism: Language and regional politics in the Chuvash Republic
The government of the Chuvash Republic, an ethno-federal region of the Russian Federation, used a targeted and symbolic language policy in an attempt to stabilize the position of the republic's titular language while avoiding conflict with local Russophones and the Russian federal government. The resulting policy allowed the republic's government to frame the existence of an autonomous Chuvash republic – as well as the local elite's form of gover…
Framing language policy in post-Soviet Azerbaijan: Political symbolism and interethnic harmony
This article describes how the successive Azerbaijani governments of Heydar Aliyev (1993–2003) and Ilham Aliyev (2003–present) have pursued a largely symbolic language policy, enabling them to portray themselves as protectors of both a unique Azerbaijani identity and interethnic harmony while actually expending minimal resources. Given the demographic dominance of Azerbaijanis in Azerbaijan, language revitalization is framed as being inevitable a…
Is Putin’s popularity real
Vladimir Putin has managed to achieve strikingly high public approval ratings throughout his time as president and prime minister of Russia. But is his popularity real, or are respondents lying to pollsters? We conducted a series of list experiments in early 2015 to estimate support for Putin while allowing respondents to maintain ambiguity about whether they personally do so. Our estimates suggest support for Putin of approximately 80%, which is…
Constraining Governments: New Indices of Vertical, Horizontal, and Diagonal Accountability
Accountability—constraints on a government’s use of political power—is one of the cornerstones of good governance. However, conceptual stretching and a lack of reliable measures have limited cross-national research on this concept. To address this research gap, we use V-Dem data and innovative Bayesian methods to develop new indices of accountability and its subtypes: the extent to which governments are accountable to citizens (vertical accountab…
IRT Models for Expert-Coded Panel Data
Data sets quantifying phenomena of social-scientific interest often use multiple experts to code latent concepts. While it remains standard practice to report the average score across experts, experts likely vary in both their expertise and their interpretation of question scales. As a result, the mean may be an inaccurate statistic. Item-response theory (IRT) models provide an intuitive method for taking these forms of expert disagreement into a…
Is Putin’s popularity (still) real? A cautionary note on using list experiments to measure popularity in authoritarian regimes
Opinion polls suggest that Vladimir Putin has broad support in Russia, but there are concerns that some respondents may be lying to pollsters. Using list experiments, we revisit our earlier work on support for Putin to explore his popularity between late 2020 and mid-2022. Our findings paint an ambiguous portrait. A naive interpretation of our estimates implies that Putin was 10 to 20 percentage points less popular than opinion polls suggest. How…
Introducing the Historical Varieties of Democracy dataset: Political institutions in the long 19th century
The Historical Varieties of Democracy dataset (Historical V-Dem) contains about 260 indicators, both factual and evaluative, describing various aspects of political regimes and state institutions. The dataset covers 91 polities globally - including most large, sovereign states, as well as some semi-sovereign entities and large colonies - from 1789 to 1920 for many cases. The majority of the indicators come from the Varieties of Democracy dataset,…
Conceptual and Measurement Issues in Assessing Democratic Backsliding
During the past decade, analyses drawing on several democracy measures have shown a global trend of democratic retrenchment. While these democracy measures use radically different methodologies, most partially or fully rely on subjective judgments to produce estimates of the level of democracy within states. Such projects continuously grapple with balancing conceptual coverage with the potential for bias (Munck and Verkuilen 2002; Przeworski et a…
Identity, Social Mobility, and Ethnic Mobilization: Language and the Disintegration of the Soviet Union
The disintegration of the Soviet Union is an essential case for the study of ethnic politics and identity-based mobilization. However, analyses in this article demonstrate that commonly used measures of ethnic diversity and politically relevant group concentration show little consistent relationship with events of ethnic mobilization in Soviet regions during the period 1987-1992. In contrast, the proportion of a regional population that did not s…
Xenophobia on the Rise? Temporal and Regional Trends in Xenophobic Attitudes in Russia
Ethnicity as a Variable: An Assessment of Measures and Data Sets of Ethnicity and Related Identities
Objective With the proliferation of new data sets and measures of identity‐based diversity, especially regarding ethnicity, it is essential that scholars who use these data sets on “ethnicity” understand their theoretical underpinnings, as well as their points of convergence and divergence. Methods We conduct a review of existing cross‐national measures of ethnic diversity. Results Different data sets involve inclusion boundaries for groups that …
Endogenous Popularity: How Perceptions of Support Affect the Popularity of Authoritarian Regimes
Being popular makes it easier for dictators to govern. A growing body of scholarship therefore focuses on the factors that influence authoritarian popularity. However, it is possible that the perception of popularity itself affects incumbent approval in autocracies. We use framing experiments embedded in four surveys in Russia to examine this phenomenon. These experiments reveal that manipulating information-and thereby perceptions-about Russian …
What makes experts reliable? Expert reliability and the estimation of latent traits
Experts code latent quantities for many influential political science datasets. Although scholars are aware of the importance of accounting for variation in expert reliability when aggregating such data, they have not systematically explored either the factors affecting expert reliability or the degree to which these factors influence estimates of latent concepts. Here we provide a template for examining potential correlates of expert reliability…
How and how much does expert error matter? Implications for quantitative peace research
Expert-coded datasets provide scholars with otherwise unavailable data on important concepts. However, expert coders vary in their reliability and scale perception, potentially resulting in substantial measurement error. These concerns are acute in expert coding of key concepts for peace research. Here I examine (1) the implications of these concerns for applied statistical analyses, and (2) the degree to which different modeling strategies ameli…
Language, Ethnicity, and Separatism: Survey Results from Two Post-Soviet Regions
Scholars often use language to proxy ethnic identity in studies of conflict and separatism. This conflation of language and ethnicity is misleading: language can cut across ethnic divides and itself has a strong link to identity and social mobility. Language can therefore influence political preferences independently of ethnicity. Results from an original survey of two post-Soviet regions support these claims. Statistical analyses demonstrate tha…
Framing language policy in post-Soviet Azerbaijan: Political symbolism and interethnic harmony
This article describes how the successive Azerbaijani governments of Heydar Aliyev (1993–2003) and Ilham Aliyev (2003–present) have pursued a largely symbolic language policy, enabling them to portray themselves as protectors of both a unique Azerbaijani identity and interethnic harmony while actually expending minimal resources. Given the demographic dominance of Azerbaijanis in Azerbaijan, language revitalization is framed as being inevitable a…
Estimating latent traits from expert surveys: An Analysis of Sensitivity to Data-Generating Process
Models for converting expert-coded data to estimates of latent concepts assume different data-generating processes (DGPs). In this paper, we simulate ecologically valid data according to different assumptions, and examine the degree to which common methods for aggregating expert-coded data (1) recover true values and (2) construct appropriate coverage intervals. We find that the mean and both hierarchical Aldrich–McKelvey (A–M) scaling and hierar…
Experts, coders and crowds: An analysis of substitutability
Political scientists increasingly use crowdworkers to produce data, predominantly in the context of coding researcher-curated text or to retrieve simple data from the internet. In this article, we provide a theoretical and empirical basis for understanding when crowdworkers can provide data of sufficient quality to substitute for other types of coders. First, we introduce a typology of data-producing actors – experts, trained coders and crowds – …
Framing language policy in post-Soviet Azerbaijan: Political symbolism and interethnic harmony
This article describes how the successive Azerbaijani governments of Heydar Aliyev (1993–2003) and Ilham Aliyev (2003–present) have pursued a largely symbolic language policy, enabling them to portray themselves as protectors of both a unique Azerbaijani identity and interethnic harmony while actually expending minimal resources. Given the demographic dominance of Azerbaijanis in Azerbaijan, language revitalization is framed as being inevitable a…
Stabilization and symbolism: Language and regional politics in the Chuvash Republic
The government of the Chuvash Republic, an ethno-federal region of the Russian Federation, used a targeted and symbolic language policy in an attempt to stabilize the position of the republic's titular language while avoiding conflict with local Russophones and the Russian federal government. The resulting policy allowed the republic's government to frame the existence of an autonomous Chuvash republic – as well as the local elite's form of gover…
Ethnicity as a Variable: An Assessment of Measures and Data Sets of Ethnicity and Related Identities
Objective With the proliferation of new data sets and measures of identity‐based diversity, especially regarding ethnicity, it is essential that scholars who use these data sets on “ethnicity” understand their theoretical underpinnings, as well as their points of convergence and divergence. Methods We conduct a review of existing cross‐national measures of ethnic diversity. Results Different data sets involve inclusion boundaries for groups that …
Is Putin’s popularity real
Vladimir Putin has managed to achieve strikingly high public approval ratings throughout his time as president and prime minister of Russia. But is his popularity real, or are respondents lying to pollsters? We conducted a series of list experiments in early 2015 to estimate support for Putin while allowing respondents to maintain ambiguity about whether they personally do so. Our estimates suggest support for Putin of approximately 80%, which is…
The V-Dem Measurement Model: Latent Variable Analysis for Cross-National and Cross-Temporal Expert-Coded Dataa
The regional roots of Russia’s political regime
In The regional roots of Russia’s political regime, William M Reisinger and Bryon J Moraski provide an exhaustive account of political trends across Russia’s federal regions, as well as the interpl
IRT Models for Expert-Coded Panel Data
Data sets quantifying phenomena of social-scientific interest often use multiple experts to code latent concepts. While it remains standard practice to report the average score across experts, experts likely vary in both their expertise and their interpretation of question scales. As a result, the mean may be an inaccurate statistic. Item-response theory (IRT) models provide an intuitive method for taking these forms of expert disagreement into a…
Xenophobia on the Rise? Temporal and Regional Trends in Xenophobic Attitudes in Russia
Identity, Social Mobility, and Ethnic Mobilization: Language and the Disintegration of the Soviet Union
The disintegration of the Soviet Union is an essential case for the study of ethnic politics and identity-based mobilization. However, analyses in this article demonstrate that commonly used measures of ethnic diversity and politically relevant group concentration show little consistent relationship with events of ethnic mobilization in Soviet regions during the period 1987-1992. In contrast, the proportion of a regional population that did not s…
V-Dem Codebook V9
What makes experts reliable? Expert reliability and the estimation of latent traits
Experts code latent quantities for many influential political science datasets. Although scholars are aware of the importance of accounting for variation in expert reliability when aggregating such data, they have not systematically explored either the factors affecting expert reliability or the degree to which these factors influence estimates of latent concepts. Here we provide a template for examining potential correlates of expert reliability…
Introducing the Historical Varieties of Democracy dataset: Political institutions in the long 19th century
The Historical Varieties of Democracy dataset (Historical V-Dem) contains about 260 indicators, both factual and evaluative, describing various aspects of political regimes and state institutions. The dataset covers 91 polities globally - including most large, sovereign states, as well as some semi-sovereign entities and large colonies - from 1789 to 1920 for many cases. The majority of the indicators come from the Varieties of Democracy dataset,…
Constraining Governments: New Indices of Vertical, Horizontal, and Diagonal Accountability
Accountability—constraints on a government’s use of political power—is one of the cornerstones of good governance. However, conceptual stretching and a lack of reliable measures have limited cross-national research on this concept. To address this research gap, we use V-Dem data and innovative Bayesian methods to develop new indices of accountability and its subtypes: the extent to which governments are accountable to citizens (vertical accountab…
How and how much does expert error matter? Implications for quantitative peace research
Expert-coded datasets provide scholars with otherwise unavailable data on important concepts. However, expert coders vary in their reliability and scale perception, potentially resulting in substantial measurement error. These concerns are acute in expert coding of key concepts for peace research. Here I examine (1) the implications of these concerns for applied statistical analyses, and (2) the degree to which different modeling strategies ameli…
Language, Ethnicity, and Separatism: Survey Results from Two Post-Soviet Regions
Scholars often use language to proxy ethnic identity in studies of conflict and separatism. This conflation of language and ethnicity is misleading: language can cut across ethnic divides and itself has a strong link to identity and social mobility. Language can therefore influence political preferences independently of ethnicity. Results from an original survey of two post-Soviet regions support these claims. Statistical analyses demonstrate tha…
Is Putin’s popularity (still) real? A cautionary note on using list experiments to measure popularity in authoritarian regimes
Opinion polls suggest that Vladimir Putin has broad support in Russia, but there are concerns that some respondents may be lying to pollsters. Using list experiments, we revisit our earlier work on support for Putin to explore his popularity between late 2020 and mid-2022. Our findings paint an ambiguous portrait. A naive interpretation of our estimates implies that Putin was 10 to 20 percentage points less popular than opinion polls suggest. How…
Estimating latent traits from expert surveys: An Analysis of Sensitivity to Data-Generating Process
Models for converting expert-coded data to estimates of latent concepts assume different data-generating processes (DGPs). In this paper, we simulate ecologically valid data according to different assumptions, and examine the degree to which common methods for aggregating expert-coded data (1) recover true values and (2) construct appropriate coverage intervals. We find that the mean and both hierarchical Aldrich–McKelvey (A–M) scaling and hierar…
V-Dem Codebook v14
Conceptual and Measurement Issues in Assessing Democratic Backsliding
During the past decade, analyses drawing on several democracy measures have shown a global trend of democratic retrenchment. While these democracy measures use radically different methodologies, most partially or fully rely on subjective judgments to produce estimates of the level of democracy within states. Such projects continuously grapple with balancing conceptual coverage with the potential for bias (Munck and Verkuilen 2002; Przeworski et a…
Endogenous Popularity: How Perceptions of Support Affect the Popularity of Authoritarian Regimes
Being popular makes it easier for dictators to govern. A growing body of scholarship therefore focuses on the factors that influence authoritarian popularity. However, it is possible that the perception of popularity itself affects incumbent approval in autocracies. We use framing experiments embedded in four surveys in Russia to examine this phenomenon. These experiments reveal that manipulating information-and thereby perceptions-about Russian …
Experts, coders and crowds: An analysis of substitutability
Political scientists increasingly use crowdworkers to produce data, predominantly in the context of coding researcher-curated text or to retrieve simple data from the internet. In this article, we provide a theoretical and empirical basis for understanding when crowdworkers can provide data of sufficient quality to substitute for other types of coders. First, we introduce a typology of data-producing actors – experts, trained coders and crowds – …
Law (12 works) · Political science (12 works) · Computer Science (10 works) · Law (10 works) · Politics (10 works) · Sociology (10 works) · Economics (9 works) · Mathematics (7 works) · Political Conflict and Governance (7 works) · Political economy (7 works)