Lawrence H Summers
Biographic Data
| ID | 999901 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Lawrence H Summers |
| GIVEN NAMES | Lawrence H |
| FAMILY NAME | Summers |
| SIGNATURE | SUMMERS L H |
| AFFILIATIONS | National Bureau of Economic Research |
| VERIFIED | No |
| TOTAL WORKS | 38 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 534 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 38 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1979 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2026 |
| H-INDEX | 9 |
Accepting the Reality of Secular Stagnation
Investing in All the People (The Quaid-i-Azam Lecture)
I am honoured to have the privilege of addressing this distinguished conference. I have read about Pakistan's accomplishments and problems for many years and since coming to the World Bank I have followed your government's bold reform efforts closely. I feel fortunate to finally have the opportunity to visit your country. I decided to speak today on "Investing in All the People" because an extensive body of recent research has convinced me that o…
Symposium – Built Up: An Historical Perspective on the Contemporary Principles and Practices of Real Estate Development , by Patrice Derrington. London: Routledge (2021)
Stanford Research Initiative on Long-Term Investing, School of Engineering, 6429Stanford University, USA
Comment corriger la mondialisation
Recette pour un désastre. La gauche et la théorie monétaire moderne
Innovation + Equality: How to Create a Future That Is More Star Trek Than Terminator
How to get more innovation and more equality. Is economic inequality the price we pay for innovation? The amazing technological advances of the last two decades—in such areas as artificial intelligence, genetics, and materials—have benefited society collectively and rewarded innovators handsomely: we get cool smartphones and technology moguls become billionaires. This contributes to a growing wealth gap; in the United States; the wealth controlle…
Qui a peur des déficits budgétaires
How to convene an international health or development commission: Ten key steps
The Commission on Investing in Health (CIH), an international group of 25 economists and global health experts, published its Global Health 2035 report in The Lancet in December 2013. The report laid out an ambitious investment framework for achieving a “grand convergence” in health—a universal reduction in deaths from infectious diseases and maternal and child health conditions—within a generation. This article captures ten key elements that the…
Jobs for the Heartland: Place-Based Policies in 21st-Century America
The economic convergence of U.S. regions has slowed greatly, and rates of long-term nonemployment have even been diverging. Simultaneously, the rate of nonemployment for working age men has nearly tripled over the last 50 years, generating a social problem that is disproportionately centered in the eastern parts of the American heartland. Should more permanent economic divisions across space lead U.S. economists to rethink their traditional skept…
Demand Side Secular Stagnation
The experience of first Japan and now Europe and the USA suggests that Hansen's concept of secular stagnation is highly relevant. Recovery has been anemic and follows a generation of financially unsustainable and often lackluster growth. Investment demand has declined while the supply of saving has increased, leaving the economy vulnerable to liquidity traps. Although some US indicators have improved, forward real rates have declined sharply, Eur…
U.S. Economic Prospects: Secular Stagnation, Hysteresis, and the Zero Lower Bound
Global health 2035: A world converging within a generation
countries can be reduced by 2035 through inexpensive population-based and clinical interventions. Fiscal policies are an especially promising lever for reducing this burden.
Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy
In a depressed economy, with short-term nominal interest rates at their zero lower bound, ample cyclical unemployment, and excess capacity, increased government purchases would be neither offset by the monetary authority raising interest rates nor neutralized by supply-side bottlenecks. Then even a small amount of hysteresis—even a small shadow cast on future potential output by the cyclical downturn—means, by simple arithmetic, that expansionary…
America Overdrawn
International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention, and Cures
Dale Jorgenson has bestowed a great honor and no small challenge by inviting me to give this lecture: a great honor because of the distinguished list of economists who have preceded me; a challenge because of the standard they have set, and because there is no greater challenge for any economist than providing a coherent account of significant events to his scientific peers. I am sometimes asked by friends about the differences between academic l…
Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: Reflections on Managing Global Integration
On the topic of globalization and economic integration, I want to address five subjects: The first is the extent of global integration that has taken place and that lies in prospect. The second is the broad case for economic integration and why domestic and global efforts to promote that case have not been more successful. The third is the challenge to policymakers that is posed by what I have called the "economic integration trilemma" --the diff…
Wealthier is Healthier
We estimate the effect of income on health using cross-country, time-series data on health (infant and child mortality and life expectancy) and income per capita. We use instrumental variables estimates using exogenous determinants of income growth to identify the pure income effect on health, isolated from reverse causation or incidental association. The long-run income elasticity of infant and child mortality in developing countries lies betwee…
Unemployment Benefits and Labor Market Transitions: A Multinomial Logit Model with Errors in Classification
James M. Poterba, Lawrence H. Summers, Unemployment Benefits and Labor Market Transitions: A Multinomial Logit Model with Errors in Classification, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 77, No. 2 (May, 1995), pp. 207-216
Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence
This note uses information on a sample of sixteen OECD countries to assess the relationship between central bank independence and macroeconomic performance. As previous work suggests, politically controlled central banks are more likely to pursue policies that lead to high and variable inflation. However, the authors find little evidence that political control of central bank policy has any impact on measures of the level or variability of growth…
Good policy or good luck?
Reform in Eastern Europe
Equipment Investment and Economic Growth
Using data from the United Nations Comparison Project and the Penn World Table, we find that machinery and equipment investment has a strong association with growth: over 1960–1985 each extra percent of GDP invested in equipment is associated with an increase in GDP growth of one third of a percentage point per year. This is a much stronger association than found between growth and any of the other components of investment. A variety of considera…
Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets
The authors present a simple overlapping generations model of an asset market in which irrational noise traders with erroneous stochastic beliefs both affect prices and earn higher expected returns. The unpredictability of noise traders' beliefs creates a risk in the price of the asset that deters rational arbitrageurs from aggressively betting against them. As a result, prices can diverge significantly from fundamental values even in the absence…
The Noise Trader Approach to Finance
This paper reviews an alternative to the efficient markets approach that we and others have recently pursued. Our approach rests on two assumptions. First, some investors are not fully rational and their demand for risky assets is affected by their beliefs or sentiments that are not fully justified by fundamental news. Second, arbitrage-defined as trading by fully rational investors not subject to such sentiment-is risky and therefore limited. Th…
Tax Policy and the Economy
The Strategic Bequest Motive
Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets
The authors present a simple overlapping generations model of an asset market in which irrational noise traders with erroneous stochastic beliefs both affect prices and earn higher expected returns. The unpredictability of noise traders' beliefs creates a risk in the price of the asset that deters rational arbitrageurs from aggressively betting against them. As a result, prices can diverge significantly from fundamental values even in the absence…
The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation
This paper uses historical U.S. data to directly estimate the contribution of intergenerational transfers to aggregate capital accumulation. The evidence presented indicates that intergenerational transfers account for the vast majority of aggregate U.S. capital formation; only a negligible fraction of actual capital accumulation can be traced to life-cycle or "hump" savings. A major difference between this study and previous investigations of th…
Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem
European unemployment has been steadily increasing for the last 15 years and is expected to remain very high for many years to come.In thi5 paper, we argue that this fact implies that shocks have much more persistent effects on unemployment than standard theories can possibly explain.We develop a theory which can explain such persistence, and which is based on the distinction between insiders and outsiders in wage bargaining.We argue that if wage…
International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention, and Cures
Dale Jorgenson has bestowed a great honor and no small challenge by inviting me to give this lecture: a great honor because of the distinguished list of economists who have preceded me; a challenge because of the standard they have set, and because there is no greater challenge for any economist than providing a coherent account of significant events to his scientific peers. I am sometimes asked by friends about the differences between academic l…
A Theory of Dual Labor Markets with Application to Industrial Policy, Discrimination and Keynesian Unemployment
This paper develops a model of dual labor markets based on employers' need to motivate workers.In order to elicit effort from their workers, employers may find it optimal to pay more than the going wage.This changes fundamentally the character of labor markets.The model is applied to a wide range of labor market phenomena.it provides a coherent framework for understanding the claims of industrial policy advocates.it also can provide the basis for…
The Noise Trader Approach to Finance
This paper reviews an alternative to the efficient markets approach that we and others have recently pursued. Our approach rests on two assumptions. First, some investors are not fully rational and their demand for risky assets is affected by their beliefs or sentiments that are not fully justified by fundamental news. Second, arbitrage-defined as trading by fully rational investors not subject to such sentiment-is risky and therefore limited. Th…
Jobs for the Heartland: Place-Based Policies in 21st-Century America
The economic convergence of U.S. regions has slowed greatly, and rates of long-term nonemployment have even been diverging. Simultaneously, the rate of nonemployment for working age men has nearly tripled over the last 50 years, generating a social problem that is disproportionately centered in the eastern parts of the American heartland. Should more permanent economic divisions across space lead U.S. economists to rethink their traditional skept…
The Labour Scarcity Controversy Reconsidered
Journal Article The Labour Scarcity Controversy Reconsidered Get access Richard N. Clarke, Richard N. Clarke National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Lawrence H. Summers Lawrence H. Summers National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 90, Issue 357, 1 March 1980, Pages 129–139…
Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations
THE enigmatic behavior of the U.S. economy during the 1980 recession makes it more imperative than ever that some of the mystery that surrounds inventory behavior be solved.On the surface, the economy seems to have reacted quite differently to what appear to be rather similar external shocks (principally, rapid increases in oil prices) in 1973-75 and in 1979-80.However, if one abstracts from inventory behavior and focuses on final sales, the two …
Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard
This paper contributes a new element to the explanations of the Gibson paradox, the puzzling correlation between interest rates and the price level seen during the gold-standard peri od. A shock that raises the underlying real rate of return in the eco nomy reduces the equilibrium relative price of gold and, with the nom inal price of gold pegged by the authorities, must raise the price le vel. The mechanism involves the allocation of gold betwee…
America Overdrawn
Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: Reflections on Managing Global Integration
On the topic of globalization and economic integration, I want to address five subjects: The first is the extent of global integration that has taken place and that lies in prospect. The second is the broad case for economic integration and why domestic and global efforts to promote that case have not been more successful. The third is the challenge to policymakers that is posed by what I have called the "economic integration trilemma" --the diff…
Labor Market Dynamics and Unemployment: A Reconsideration
Kim B. Clark, Lawrence H. Summers, Charles C. Holt, Robert E. Hall, Martin Neil Baily, Kim B. Clark, Labor Market Dynamics and Unemployment: A Reconsideration, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1979, No. 1 (1979), pp. 13-72
The Labour Scarcity Controversy Reconsidered
Journal Article The Labour Scarcity Controversy Reconsidered Get access Richard N. Clarke, Richard N. Clarke National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Lawrence H. Summers Lawrence H. Summers National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Economic Journal, Volume 90, Issue 357, 1 March 1980, Pages 129–139…
The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation
This paper uses historical U.S. data to directly estimate the contribution of intergenerational transfers to aggregate capital accumulation. The evidence presented indicates that intergenerational transfers account for the vast majority of aggregate U.S. capital formation; only a negligible fraction of actual capital accumulation can be traced to life-cycle or "hump" savings. A major difference between this study and previous investigations of th…
Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations
THE enigmatic behavior of the U.S. economy during the 1980 recession makes it more imperative than ever that some of the mystery that surrounds inventory behavior be solved.On the surface, the economy seems to have reacted quite differently to what appear to be rather similar external shocks (principally, rapid increases in oil prices) in 1973-75 and in 1979-80.However, if one abstracts from inventory behavior and focuses on final sales, the two …
The Taxation of Risky Assets
This paper reconsiders the effects of taxation on risky assets, recognizing the importance of variations in asset prices. We show that earlier analyses which assumed that depreciation rates are constant and that the future price of capital goods is known with certainty are very misleading, as guides to the effects of corporate taxes. We then examine the concept of economic depreciation in a risky environment, and show that depreciation allowances…
The Strategic Bequest Motive
A Theory of Dual Labor Markets with Application to Industrial Policy, Discrimination and Keynesian Unemployment
This paper develops a model of dual labor markets based on employers' need to motivate workers.In order to elicit effort from their workers, employers may find it optimal to pay more than the going wage.This changes fundamentally the character of labor markets.The model is applied to a wide range of labor market phenomena.it provides a coherent framework for understanding the claims of industrial policy advocates.it also can provide the basis for…
A Theory of Dual Labor Markets with Application to Industrial Policy, Discrimination, and Keynesian Unemployment
This paper develops a model of dual labor markets based on employers' need to motivate workers. In order to elicit effort from their workers, employers may find it optimal to pay more than the going wage. This changes fundamentally the character of labor markets. The model is applied to a wide range of labor market phenomena. It provides a coherent framework for understanding the claims of industrial policy advocates. It also can provide the basi…
Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem
European unemployment has been steadily increasing for the last fifteen years and is expected to remain very high for many years to come. In this paper, we argue that this fact implies that shocks have much more persistent effects on unemployment than standard theories can possibly explain. We develop a theory that can explain such persistence, and that is based on the distinction between insiders and outsiders in wage bargaining. We argue that i…
Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem
European unemployment has been steadily increasing for the last 15 years and is expected to remain very high for many years to come.In thi5 paper, we argue that this fact implies that shocks have much more persistent effects on unemployment than standard theories can possibly explain.We develop a theory which can explain such persistence, and which is based on the distinction between insiders and outsiders in wage bargaining.We argue that if wage…
Hysteresis in unemployment
Efficiency Wages and the Inter-Industry Wage Structure
This paper uses cross-sectional and longitudinal data to examine differences in pay for equally-skilled workers in different ind ustries. The major finding is that there is substantial dispersion in wages across industries, even after allowing for measured and unmeas ured labor quality, working conditions, fringe benefits, transitory d emand shocks, the threat of union-ization, union bargaining power, fi rm size, and other factors. In addition, e…
Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard
This paper contributes a new element to the explanations of the Gibson paradox, the puzzling correlation between interest rates and the price level seen during the gold-standard peri od. A shock that raises the underlying real rate of return in the eco nomy reduces the equilibrium relative price of gold and, with the nom inal price of gold pegged by the authorities, must raise the price le vel. The mechanism involves the allocation of gold betwee…
Tax Policy and the Economy
Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets
The authors present a simple overlapping generations model of an asset market in which irrational noise traders with erroneous stochastic beliefs both affect prices and earn higher expected returns. The unpredictability of noise traders' beliefs creates a risk in the price of the asset that deters rational arbitrageurs from aggressively betting against them. As a result, prices can diverge significantly from fundamental values even in the absence…
The Noise Trader Approach to Finance
This paper reviews an alternative to the efficient markets approach that we and others have recently pursued. Our approach rests on two assumptions. First, some investors are not fully rational and their demand for risky assets is affected by their beliefs or sentiments that are not fully justified by fundamental news. Second, arbitrage-defined as trading by fully rational investors not subject to such sentiment-is risky and therefore limited. Th…
Equipment Investment and Economic Growth
Using data from the United Nations Comparison Project and the Penn World Table, we find that machinery and equipment investment has a strong association with growth: over 1960–1985 each extra percent of GDP invested in equipment is associated with an increase in GDP growth of one third of a percentage point per year. This is a much stronger association than found between growth and any of the other components of investment. A variety of considera…
Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence
This note uses information on a sample of sixteen OECD countries to assess the relationship between central bank independence and macroeconomic performance. As previous work suggests, politically controlled central banks are more likely to pursue policies that lead to high and variable inflation. However, the authors find little evidence that political control of central bank policy has any impact on measures of the level or variability of growth…
Good policy or good luck?
Reform in Eastern Europe
Unemployment Benefits and Labor Market Transitions: A Multinomial Logit Model with Errors in Classification
James M. Poterba, Lawrence H. Summers, Unemployment Benefits and Labor Market Transitions: A Multinomial Logit Model with Errors in Classification, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 77, No. 2 (May, 1995), pp. 207-216
Wealthier is Healthier
We estimate the effect of income on health using cross-country, time-series data on health (infant and child mortality and life expectancy) and income per capita. We use instrumental variables estimates using exogenous determinants of income growth to identify the pure income effect on health, isolated from reverse causation or incidental association. The long-run income elasticity of infant and child mortality in developing countries lies betwee…
Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: Reflections on Managing Global Integration
On the topic of globalization and economic integration, I want to address five subjects: The first is the extent of global integration that has taken place and that lies in prospect. The second is the broad case for economic integration and why domestic and global efforts to promote that case have not been more successful. The third is the challenge to policymakers that is posed by what I have called the "economic integration trilemma" --the diff…
International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention, and Cures
Dale Jorgenson has bestowed a great honor and no small challenge by inviting me to give this lecture: a great honor because of the distinguished list of economists who have preceded me; a challenge because of the standard they have set, and because there is no greater challenge for any economist than providing a coherent account of significant events to his scientific peers. I am sometimes asked by friends about the differences between academic l…
America Overdrawn
Economics (27 works) · Macroeconomics (16 works) · Political science (12 works) · Economic Theory and Policy (9 works) · Labour economics (9 works) · Monetary economics (9 works) · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth (8 works) · Keynesian economics (8 works) · Unemployment (8 works) · Labor market dynamics and wage inequality (7 works)