Edward H Kaplan
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 1245935 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Edward H Kaplan |
| PRENOMES | Edward H |
| SOBRENOME | Kaplan |
| ASSINATURA | KAPLAN E H |
| AFILIAÇÕES | Yale University |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-8722-7667 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 21 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 144 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 21 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1979 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2020 |
| ÍNDICE H | 6 |
Logistics of Aggressive Community Screening for Coronavirus 2019
Public health and medical experts have clamored for increased coronavirus testing to control the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, 1 but how to implement such testing has not been carefully described. We detail a plan for aggressive community screening with the goal of controlling, if not eradicating, local severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. For at least 2 months, access to reagents, swabs, and tests ha…
Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events
This paper uses world running records by age to estimate a biological frontier of decline rates. Two models are compared: a linear/ quadratic (LQ) model and a nonparametric model. Two estimation methods are used: (a) minimizing the squared difference between the observed records and the modeled biological frontier and (b) using extreme value theory to estimate the biological frontier that maximizes the probability of observing the existing world …
Mass Casualty Potential of Qassam Rockets
In spite of the bombardment of southern Israel by thousands of Qassam rockets fired from the Gaza Strip, comparatively few people have been injured or killed. This has led some observers to dismiss Qassams as more of a symbolic than lethal threat. However, southern Israeli towns feature robust civil defense systems that include safe rooms, bomb shelters, early detection alarms, and missile defense. How many casualties would occur were such system…
Estimating the Duration of Jihadi Terror Plots in the United States
The number of ongoing terror plots increases with the duration of time from plot initiation until plot execution or interdiction (whichever comes first), yet no estimate of the probability distribution governing terror plot duration has appeared in the open literature. To remedy this gap, jihadi terror plots in the United States were identified from terrorism-related indictments that occurred between 11 September 2001 and 30 June 2011 in addition…
Counterterror intelligence operations and terror attacks
Baseline, Placebo, and Treatment
Randomized experiments commonly compare subjects receiving a treatment to subjects receiving a placebo. An alternative design, frequently used in field experimentation, compares subjects assigned to an untreated baseline group to subjects assigned to a treatment group, adjusting statistically for the fact that some members of the treatment group may fail to receive the treatment. This article shows the potential advantages of a three-group design…
Analysis of a Strategic Terror Organization
The authors model a terrorist organization’s choice over the scale and planning horizon of terror attacks and the consequences for the organization’s evolution. The organization can engage in short-term attacks planned and executed in a single period, characterized by a low fixed cost and relatively high marginal cost, and longer term attacks planned and executed over two periods, having a high fixed cost but relatively low marginal cost. Longer …
The Fox News Effect
Does media bias affect voting? We analyze the entry of Fox News in cable markets and its impact on voting. Between October 1996 and November 2000, the conservative Fox News Channel was introduced in the cable programming of 20 percent of U. S. towns. Fox News availability in 2000 appears to be largely idiosyncratic, conditional on a set of controls. Using a data set of voting data for 9,256 towns, we investigate if Republicans gained vote share i…
Suicide Bombings and Targeted Killings in (Counter-) Terror Games
This article develops sequential game models for key operational terrorist (how often to attack) and government (how often to execute targeted killings) decisions taken during a (counter-) terror campaign such as the second intifada. Key results include the following: The government initiates targeted killings when the marginal number of Israeli civilian lives saved from prevented terror attacks exceeds the marginal number of Palestinian civilian…
Anti-Israel Sentiment Predicts Anti-Semitism in Europe
In the discourse surrounding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, extreme criticisms of Israel (e.g., Israel is an apartheidstate,theIsraelDefenseForcesdeliberatelytargetPalestiniancivilians),coupled with extreme policy proposals (e.g., boycott of Israeli academics and institutions, divest from companies doing business with Israel), have sparked counterclaims that such criticisms are anti-Semitic (for only Israel is singled out). The research in thi…
What Happened to Suicide Bombings in Israel? Insights from a Terror Stock Model
An analysis of three years of suicide bombing data in Israel reveals an increase in such attacks through March 2002 followed by a steep decline through the end of 2003. The authors propose a terror-stock model that treats the suicide bombing attack rate as a function of the number of terrorists available to plan and execute suicide bombings. The intent of Israeli tactics such as targeted killings and preemptive arrests is to reduce the capacity o…
Allocating HIV-Prevention Resources
The primary goal of HIV prevention is to prevent as many infections as possible. This requires allocating HIV-prevention resources according to costeffectiveness principles: those activities that prevent more infections per dollar are favored over those that prevent fewer. This is not current practice in the United States, where prevention resources from the federal government to the states flow in proportion to reported AIDS cases. Although such…
Modeling the Aids Epidemic
This volume presents applied mathematical and statistical modelling research that may help focus and improve major decision-making in planning, resource allocation, and public health policy for the current AIDS health crisis. In addition to important models developed in academia, this text presents models developed and currently used by public health practitioners, thus providing truly broad-based coverage of AIDS modelling efforts. 30 detailed c…
A decline in HIV-infected needles returned to New Haven's needle exchange program
The New Haven needle exchange program experienced a significant decline in the fraction of returned needles containing human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) proviral DNA. Is this decline due to the operations of the needle exchange or to a shift in clients? Analysis of demographic and behavioral data revealed that only one variable, the race of participating clients, changed significantly over time. However, HIV-1 prevalences in needles given to…
Worst case analysis of sexual mixing models of HIV transmission
The sexual transmission of HIV/AIDS depends upon the specifics of mixing between subpopulations with differing sexual activity rates. As the manner in which such mixing occurs is very difficult to observe, it is natural to consider the number of infected persons that would result from worst case mixing, that is, mixing that maximizes the number of infected persons in the population. This paper summarizes a recently developed procedure for produci…
Response to Koopman
Can bad models suggest good policies? Sexual mixing and the Aids epidemic
The epidemiology of HIV transmission, and hence AIDS, depends upon phenomena such as sexual mixing patterns, about which very little is known. Mathematical models of sexually transmitted HIV assume random mixing among susceptible and infected individuals, across differing levels of sexual activity. Given that this representation of sexual mixing is probably wrong (in the sense of descriptive accuracy), should such models be used to formulate and/…
Crisis? A brief critique of masters, Johnson and Kolodny
Masters, Johnson and Kolodny a volume which claims that risk understated by public This paper presents a brief analysis of the key data contained in MJK's book using simple mathematical models. The paper shows that the unconditional per partner risk of infection for the sexually active heterosexuals in the MJK study is exceeded by the similar risk for typical gay men in San Francisco by a factor of nearly fifty; that the conditional probability o…
Hankow
Introduction: cities in the history of Europe and China Part I. The Emporium: 1. Hankow in the nineteenth century 2. The trade of Hankow 3. The salt trade 4. The tea trade 5. Credit and finance in Hankow 6. The state and commerce Part II. Urban Social Organization: 7. Local origin in an immigrant city 8. Guild structure 9. Guild functions 10. Guilds and local power Conclusion Notes Selected bibliography Character list Index
Biography and Two Social Science Encyclopedias
Evaluating the effectiveness of one-officer versus two-officer patrol units
Anti-Israel Sentiment Predicts Anti-Semitism in Europe
In the discourse surrounding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, extreme criticisms of Israel (e.g., Israel is an apartheidstate,theIsraelDefenseForcesdeliberatelytargetPalestiniancivilians),coupled with extreme policy proposals (e.g., boycott of Israeli academics and institutions, divest from companies doing business with Israel), have sparked counterclaims that such criticisms are anti-Semitic (for only Israel is singled out). The research in thi…
What Happened to Suicide Bombings in Israel? Insights from a Terror Stock Model
An analysis of three years of suicide bombing data in Israel reveals an increase in such attacks through March 2002 followed by a steep decline through the end of 2003. The authors propose a terror-stock model that treats the suicide bombing attack rate as a function of the number of terrorists available to plan and execute suicide bombings. The intent of Israeli tactics such as targeted killings and preemptive arrests is to reduce the capacity o…
Baseline, Placebo, and Treatment
Randomized experiments commonly compare subjects receiving a treatment to subjects receiving a placebo. An alternative design, frequently used in field experimentation, compares subjects assigned to an untreated baseline group to subjects assigned to a treatment group, adjusting statistically for the fact that some members of the treatment group may fail to receive the treatment. This article shows the potential advantages of a three-group design…
Suicide Bombings and Targeted Killings in (Counter-) Terror Games
This article develops sequential game models for key operational terrorist (how often to attack) and government (how often to execute targeted killings) decisions taken during a (counter-) terror campaign such as the second intifada. Key results include the following: The government initiates targeted killings when the marginal number of Israeli civilian lives saved from prevented terror attacks exceeds the marginal number of Palestinian civilian…
Analysis of a Strategic Terror Organization
The authors model a terrorist organization’s choice over the scale and planning horizon of terror attacks and the consequences for the organization’s evolution. The organization can engage in short-term attacks planned and executed in a single period, characterized by a low fixed cost and relatively high marginal cost, and longer term attacks planned and executed over two periods, having a high fixed cost but relatively low marginal cost. Longer …
A decline in HIV-infected needles returned to New Haven's needle exchange program
The New Haven needle exchange program experienced a significant decline in the fraction of returned needles containing human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) proviral DNA. Is this decline due to the operations of the needle exchange or to a shift in clients? Analysis of demographic and behavioral data revealed that only one variable, the race of participating clients, changed significantly over time. However, HIV-1 prevalences in needles given to…
Can bad models suggest good policies? Sexual mixing and the Aids epidemic
The epidemiology of HIV transmission, and hence AIDS, depends upon phenomena such as sexual mixing patterns, about which very little is known. Mathematical models of sexually transmitted HIV assume random mixing among susceptible and infected individuals, across differing levels of sexual activity. Given that this representation of sexual mixing is probably wrong (in the sense of descriptive accuracy), should such models be used to formulate and/…
Evaluating the effectiveness of one-officer versus two-officer patrol units
Mass Casualty Potential of Qassam Rockets
In spite of the bombardment of southern Israel by thousands of Qassam rockets fired from the Gaza Strip, comparatively few people have been injured or killed. This has led some observers to dismiss Qassams as more of a symbolic than lethal threat. However, southern Israeli towns feature robust civil defense systems that include safe rooms, bomb shelters, early detection alarms, and missile defense. How many casualties would occur were such system…
Allocating HIV-Prevention Resources
The primary goal of HIV prevention is to prevent as many infections as possible. This requires allocating HIV-prevention resources according to costeffectiveness principles: those activities that prevent more infections per dollar are favored over those that prevent fewer. This is not current practice in the United States, where prevention resources from the federal government to the states flow in proportion to reported AIDS cases. Although such…
Crisis? A brief critique of masters, Johnson and Kolodny
Masters, Johnson and Kolodny a volume which claims that risk understated by public This paper presents a brief analysis of the key data contained in MJK's book using simple mathematical models. The paper shows that the unconditional per partner risk of infection for the sexually active heterosexuals in the MJK study is exceeded by the similar risk for typical gay men in San Francisco by a factor of nearly fifty; that the conditional probability o…
Estimating the Duration of Jihadi Terror Plots in the United States
The number of ongoing terror plots increases with the duration of time from plot initiation until plot execution or interdiction (whichever comes first), yet no estimate of the probability distribution governing terror plot duration has appeared in the open literature. To remedy this gap, jihadi terror plots in the United States were identified from terrorism-related indictments that occurred between 11 September 2001 and 30 June 2011 in addition…
Counterterror intelligence operations and terror attacks
Worst case analysis of sexual mixing models of HIV transmission
The sexual transmission of HIV/AIDS depends upon the specifics of mixing between subpopulations with differing sexual activity rates. As the manner in which such mixing occurs is very difficult to observe, it is natural to consider the number of infected persons that would result from worst case mixing, that is, mixing that maximizes the number of infected persons in the population. This paper summarizes a recently developed procedure for produci…
Evaluating the effectiveness of one-officer versus two-officer patrol units
Biography and Two Social Science Encyclopedias
Hankow
Introduction: cities in the history of Europe and China Part I. The Emporium: 1. Hankow in the nineteenth century 2. The trade of Hankow 3. The salt trade 4. The tea trade 5. Credit and finance in Hankow 6. The state and commerce Part II. Urban Social Organization: 7. Local origin in an immigrant city 8. Guild structure 9. Guild functions 10. Guilds and local power Conclusion Notes Selected bibliography Character list Index
Crisis? A brief critique of masters, Johnson and Kolodny
Masters, Johnson and Kolodny a volume which claims that risk understated by public This paper presents a brief analysis of the key data contained in MJK's book using simple mathematical models. The paper shows that the unconditional per partner risk of infection for the sexually active heterosexuals in the MJK study is exceeded by the similar risk for typical gay men in San Francisco by a factor of nearly fifty; that the conditional probability o…
Can bad models suggest good policies? Sexual mixing and the Aids epidemic
The epidemiology of HIV transmission, and hence AIDS, depends upon phenomena such as sexual mixing patterns, about which very little is known. Mathematical models of sexually transmitted HIV assume random mixing among susceptible and infected individuals, across differing levels of sexual activity. Given that this representation of sexual mixing is probably wrong (in the sense of descriptive accuracy), should such models be used to formulate and/…
Response to Koopman
Worst case analysis of sexual mixing models of HIV transmission
The sexual transmission of HIV/AIDS depends upon the specifics of mixing between subpopulations with differing sexual activity rates. As the manner in which such mixing occurs is very difficult to observe, it is natural to consider the number of infected persons that would result from worst case mixing, that is, mixing that maximizes the number of infected persons in the population. This paper summarizes a recently developed procedure for produci…
A decline in HIV-infected needles returned to New Haven's needle exchange program
The New Haven needle exchange program experienced a significant decline in the fraction of returned needles containing human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) proviral DNA. Is this decline due to the operations of the needle exchange or to a shift in clients? Analysis of demographic and behavioral data revealed that only one variable, the race of participating clients, changed significantly over time. However, HIV-1 prevalences in needles given to…
Modeling the Aids Epidemic
This volume presents applied mathematical and statistical modelling research that may help focus and improve major decision-making in planning, resource allocation, and public health policy for the current AIDS health crisis. In addition to important models developed in academia, this text presents models developed and currently used by public health practitioners, thus providing truly broad-based coverage of AIDS modelling efforts. 30 detailed c…
Allocating HIV-Prevention Resources
The primary goal of HIV prevention is to prevent as many infections as possible. This requires allocating HIV-prevention resources according to costeffectiveness principles: those activities that prevent more infections per dollar are favored over those that prevent fewer. This is not current practice in the United States, where prevention resources from the federal government to the states flow in proportion to reported AIDS cases. Although such…
What Happened to Suicide Bombings in Israel? Insights from a Terror Stock Model
An analysis of three years of suicide bombing data in Israel reveals an increase in such attacks through March 2002 followed by a steep decline through the end of 2003. The authors propose a terror-stock model that treats the suicide bombing attack rate as a function of the number of terrorists available to plan and execute suicide bombings. The intent of Israeli tactics such as targeted killings and preemptive arrests is to reduce the capacity o…
Anti-Israel Sentiment Predicts Anti-Semitism in Europe
In the discourse surrounding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, extreme criticisms of Israel (e.g., Israel is an apartheidstate,theIsraelDefenseForcesdeliberatelytargetPalestiniancivilians),coupled with extreme policy proposals (e.g., boycott of Israeli academics and institutions, divest from companies doing business with Israel), have sparked counterclaims that such criticisms are anti-Semitic (for only Israel is singled out). The research in thi…
The Fox News Effect
Does media bias affect voting? We analyze the entry of Fox News in cable markets and its impact on voting. Between October 1996 and November 2000, the conservative Fox News Channel was introduced in the cable programming of 20 percent of U. S. towns. Fox News availability in 2000 appears to be largely idiosyncratic, conditional on a set of controls. Using a data set of voting data for 9,256 towns, we investigate if Republicans gained vote share i…
Suicide Bombings and Targeted Killings in (Counter-) Terror Games
This article develops sequential game models for key operational terrorist (how often to attack) and government (how often to execute targeted killings) decisions taken during a (counter-) terror campaign such as the second intifada. Key results include the following: The government initiates targeted killings when the marginal number of Israeli civilian lives saved from prevented terror attacks exceeds the marginal number of Palestinian civilian…
Baseline, Placebo, and Treatment
Randomized experiments commonly compare subjects receiving a treatment to subjects receiving a placebo. An alternative design, frequently used in field experimentation, compares subjects assigned to an untreated baseline group to subjects assigned to a treatment group, adjusting statistically for the fact that some members of the treatment group may fail to receive the treatment. This article shows the potential advantages of a three-group design…
Analysis of a Strategic Terror Organization
The authors model a terrorist organization’s choice over the scale and planning horizon of terror attacks and the consequences for the organization’s evolution. The organization can engage in short-term attacks planned and executed in a single period, characterized by a low fixed cost and relatively high marginal cost, and longer term attacks planned and executed over two periods, having a high fixed cost but relatively low marginal cost. Longer …
Counterterror intelligence operations and terror attacks
Estimating the Duration of Jihadi Terror Plots in the United States
The number of ongoing terror plots increases with the duration of time from plot initiation until plot execution or interdiction (whichever comes first), yet no estimate of the probability distribution governing terror plot duration has appeared in the open literature. To remedy this gap, jihadi terror plots in the United States were identified from terrorism-related indictments that occurred between 11 September 2001 and 30 June 2011 in addition…
Mass Casualty Potential of Qassam Rockets
In spite of the bombardment of southern Israel by thousands of Qassam rockets fired from the Gaza Strip, comparatively few people have been injured or killed. This has led some observers to dismiss Qassams as more of a symbolic than lethal threat. However, southern Israeli towns feature robust civil defense systems that include safe rooms, bomb shelters, early detection alarms, and missile defense. How many casualties would occur were such system…
Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events
This paper uses world running records by age to estimate a biological frontier of decline rates. Two models are compared: a linear/ quadratic (LQ) model and a nonparametric model. Two estimation methods are used: (a) minimizing the squared difference between the observed records and the modeled biological frontier and (b) using extreme value theory to estimate the biological frontier that maximizes the probability of observing the existing world …
Logistics of Aggressive Community Screening for Coronavirus 2019
Public health and medical experts have clamored for increased coronavirus testing to control the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, 1 but how to implement such testing has not been carefully described. We detail a plan for aggressive community screening with the goal of controlling, if not eradicating, local severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. For at least 2 months, access to reagents, swabs, and tests ha…
Political science (13 obras) · Law (12 obras) · Computer Science (11 obras) · Law (9 obras) · Medicine (9 obras) · Psychology (7 obras) · Sociology (7 obras) · Terrorism, Counterterrorism, and Political Violence (7 obras) · Computer security (6 obras) · Economics (5 obras)