Anthony Pickles
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 140513 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Anthony Pickles |
| PRENOMES | Anthony |
| SOBRENOME | Pickles |
| ASSINATURA | PICKLES A |
| AFILIAÇÕES | King's College London |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-1283-0346 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 55 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 116 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 55 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1980 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2024 |
| ÍNDICE H | 7 |
Mediation of 6‐year mid‐childhood follow‐up outcomes after pre‐school social communication (Pact) therapy for autistic children
BACKGROUND: There are very few mechanistic studies of the long-term impact of psychosocial interventions in childhood. The parent-mediated Paediatric Autism Communication Therapy (PACT) RCT showed sustained effects on autistic child outcomes from pre-school to mid-childhood. We investigated the mechanism by which the PACT intervention achieved these effects. METHODS: Of 152 children randomised to receive PACT or treatment as usual between 2 and 5…
Testing the social motivation theory of autism
BACKGROUND: The Social Motivation Theory proposes that social reward processing differences underlie autism. However, low social motivation has also been linked to higher anxiety. Given the co-occurrence between autism and anxiety, it is possible that anxiety drives the association between social motivation and autistic characteristics. This study tests the mechanisms underlying the association between social motivation and autistic traits. METHO…
Research Reviews
BACKROUND: The evidence base for interventions for child mental health and neurodevelopment is weak and the current capacity for rigorous evaluation limited. We describe some of the challenges that make this field particularly difficult and expensive for evaluation studies. METHODS: We describe and review the use of novel study designs and analysis methodology for their potential to improve this situation. RESULTS: While several novel designs app…
Associations between emotion recognition and autistic and callous‐unemotional traits
BACKGROUND: Although autism and callous-unemotional (CU) traits are distinct conditions, both are associated with difficulties in emotion recognition. However, it is unknown whether the emotion recognition difficulties characteristic of autism and CU traits are driven by comparable underpinning mechanisms. METHODS: We tested whether cueing to the eyes improved emotion recognition in relation to autistic and CU traits in a heterogeneous sample of …
Parent‐ and teacher‐reported associations from adolescent bifactor models of psychopathology
BACKGROUND: Adolescent mental health problems have lasting impacts on health and social functioning later in life. Evidence to date mostly comes from studies of specific diagnostic categories/dimensions, but hierarchical models can elucidate associations with general as well as specific dimensions of psychopathology. We provide evidence on long-term outcomes of general and specific dimensions of adolescent psychopathology using both parent and te…
Pacific Futures
The Pacific region presents a huge diversity of cultural forms, which have fuelled some of the most challenging ethnographic work undertaken in the discipline. But this challenge has come at a cost. Culture, often reconfigured as ‘custom’, has often served to trap the people of the Pacific in the past of cultural reproduction, where everything is what it has always been, or worse—outdated, outmoded and destined for modernization. Pacific Futures …
The Lancet Commission on the future of care and clinical research in autism
Predictors of language regression and its association with subsequent communication development in children with autism
BACKGROUND: Language regression, broadly defined as the loss of acquired language skills in early childhood, is a distinctive feature of autism. Little is known about the factors underlying regression or the prognosis of children who exhibit regression. We examine potential predictors of language regression and test its association with language development in a prospective longitudinal sample of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) from …
Gambling Futures
Card games and their material remains dominate the human landscape of settlements even while gambling remains side-lined in anthropological accounts of the region.1 As both a present- and a future-oriented activity, gambling requires
Pathways from the early language and communication environment to literacy outcomes at the end of primary school; the roles of language development and social development
The quality of a child’s early language and communication environment (ELCE) is an important predictor of later educational outcomes. However, less is known about the routes via which these early experiences influence the skills that support academic achievement. Using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (n = 7,120) we investigated relations between ELCE (<2 years), literacy and social adjustment at school entry (5 years…
Annual Research Review
We present the Anterior Modifiers in the Emergence of Neurodevelopmental Disorders (AMEND) framework, designed to reframe the field of prospective studies of neurodevelopmental disorders. In AMEND we propose conceptual, statistical and methodological approaches to separating markers of early‐stage perturbations from later developmental modifiers. We describe the evidence for, and features of, these interacting components before outlining analytic…
Autism spectrum disorder
Sex differences in foetal origins of child emotional symptoms
BACKGROUND: Based on previous findings from the Wirral Child Health and Development Study (WCHADS), and on evolutionary hypotheses, we preregistered analyses of data from a large epidemiological sample (https://osf.io/fn5g9/register/564d31db8c5e4a7c9694b2be), to test for sex-dependent moderation by prenatal maternal depressive symptoms of the association between postnatal maternal depressive symptoms and child emotional problems. METHODS: A total…
The adult outcome of children referred for autism
BACKGROUND: Autism Spectrum Disorder is highly heterogeneous, no more so than in the complex world of adult life. Being able to summarize that complexity and have some notion of the confidence with which we could predict outcome from childhood would be helpful for clinical practice and planning. METHODS: Latent class profile analysis is applied to data from 123 participants from the Early Diagnosis Study (Lord et al., Archives of General Psychiat…
Infant domestic adoption
BACKGROUND: Adoption studies can cast light on environmental influences on development, but heterogeneity in preplacement experiences often complicates interpretation of findings. METHODS: We studied infant-adopted samples drawn from the 1958 and 1970 British birth cohorts and examined mental health, well-being, physical health and externalizing outcomes at mid-life. Outcomes for adopted cohort members were compared with those of (a) individuals …
The impact of nonverbal ability on prevalence and clinical presentation of language disorder
BACKGROUND: Diagnosis of 'specific' language impairment traditionally required nonverbal IQ to be within normal limits, often resulting in restricted access to clinical services for children with lower NVIQ. Changes to DSM-5 criteria for language disorder removed this NVIQ requirement. This study sought to delineate the impact of varying NVIQ criteria on prevalence, clinical presentation and functional impact of language disorder in the first UK …
Gambling
Gambling occurs when a person commits one or more valuable items (a ‘stake’) to an event or series of events packaged together, and where the result determines a loss or win at a rate agreed before the final stake is committed. The practice is or was not present everywhere and is often marginal in a given society, and some gambling variations escape the boundaries of this definition. Some include financial speculation within the phenomenon of gam…
Do changes in parent mental health explain trends in youth emotional problems
Standardizing Ados Scores for a Measure of Severity in Autism Spectrum Disorders
Estimating Intervention Effects in a Complex Multi-Level Smoking Prevention Study
This paper illustrates how to estimate cumulative and non-cumulative treatment effects in a complex school-based smoking intervention study. The Instrumental Variable method is used to tackle non-compliance and measurement error for a range of treatment exposure measures (binary, ordinal and continuous) in the presence of clustering and dropout. The results are compared to more routine analyses. The empirical findings from this study provide litt…
Psychiatric Disorders in Children With Autism Spectrum Disorders
Resilience to adult psychopathology following childhood maltreatment
Strategic voting and constituency context
Modelling the contribution of changes in family life to time trends in adolescent conduct problems
Prevalence of disorders of the autism spectrum in a population cohort of children in South Thames
Testing hypotheses on specific environmental causal effects on behavior
There have been strong critiques of the notion that environmental influences can have an important effect on psychological functioning. The substance of these criticisms is considered in order to infer the methodological challenges that have to be met. Concepts of cause and of the testing of causal effects are discussed with a particular focus on the need to consider sample selection and the value (and limitations) of longitudinal data. The desig…
Longitudinal versus Cross-Sectional Methods for Behavioural Research
It is explained that statistical problems over omitted variables and endogenous factors cast doubt upon the wisdom of attempting inference about many forms of human behaviour from cross-sectional data. Simulations are used to confirm that cross-sectional analyses can produce seriously misleading results. The problems are avoided by using longitudinal methods
Strategic voting and constituency context
Wage distributions and spatial preferences in competitive job search and migration
Aggregate interstate migration data [for the United States] indicate that the majority of observed flows are from higher to lower wage states, quite contrary to the predictions of human capital theory. It is argued that a search theoretic framework may be used to complement and strengthen human capital theory. Such a framework may then include consideration of the flows of job information and aspects of job competition. A model is proposed for ap…
Modelling the contribution of changes in family life to time trends in adolescent conduct problems
An Analysis of Housing Careers in Cardiff
Data on housing careers in Cardiff are analysed within the statistical modelling framework developed in a companion paper. Several simplifying assumptions were necessary to overcome complex statistical and computational problems but the results obtained appear to be robust. However, these results include some features which were unexpected and difficult to interpret
Heterogeneity, Nonstationarity, and Duration-of-Stay Effects in Migration
This paper briefly outlines the theoretical problem of the identification of duration-of-stay effects in migration. The empirical studies are critically reviewed with particular emphasis upon their treatment of heterogeneity and nonstationarity. New statistical tests developed by the authors are applied to Wisconsin migration data. These tests suggest that although heterogeneity and nonstationarity are strongly present within the data, duration-o…
Social Change, Friendship and Civic Participation
This paper studies the changing distribution of social capital and its impact on class formation in England and Wales from a 'class structural' perspective. It compares data from the Social Mobility Inquiry (1972) and the British Household Panel Survey (1992 and 1998) to show a distinct change in the class profiling of membership in civic organisations, with traditionally working-class dominated associations losing their working-class character, …
Event History Testing
Heterogeneity and nonstationarity typically present in sociological time series have prevented rigorous testing of the axiom of cumulative inertia (McGinnis, 1968). An hypothesis test is presented for event history effects in a collection of short event series controlling for heterogeneity and nonstationarity. The test is applied to the Southeast Wisconsin residential mobility data of Clark et al. (1977, 1979). The results indicate no evidence of…
Do changes in parent mental health explain trends in youth emotional problems
An Analysis of Entrepreneurial Behaviour from Male Work Histories
PICKLES A. R. and O'FARRELL P. N. (1987) An analysis of entrepreneurial behaviour from male work histories, Reg. Studies 21, 425–444. This paper analyses entrepreneurship in Ireland—North and South—based upon a sample of 4,300 male work histories. There is an extremely low rate of entrepreneurship in Ireland and only 8% of new ventures were in manufacturing. Complementary log-log models are used to analyse the factors underlying an individual's f…
Some Methods for the Testing and Estimation of Dynamic Models Which Use Panel Data
In this paper the authors address some of the inferential problems posed by longitudinal data on the discrete choice behaviour of a collection of individuals. In particular, an integrated framework is developed which enables heterogeneity and nonstationarity to be explicitly included in stochastic models of binary choice behaviour. The emphasis is upon minimum assumptions about the nature and determinants of heterogeneity and nonstationarity, as …
A Family of Hypothesis Tests for a Collection of Short Event Series with an Application to Female Employment Participation
Data comprising a collection of short event series are increasingly encountered in social science research. Such series may be expected to be heterogeneous and nonstationary precluding conventional inferential methods. Tests are presented for homogeneity, nonstationarity, and zero order, with appropriate controls. The test procedures are based upon the subdivision of each series into a 'conditioning sequence' and an 'experimental observation'. Th…
Duration of Unemployment among Men in Northern Ireland
Male unemployment in Northern Ireland from 1926 to 1973 is examined by using aggregate time series and individual life-history data. County-specific and sector-specific unemployment rates are derived from various published statistics by using an entropy-maximising procedure. These aggregate data show a systematic relative improvement in male unemployment in the predominantly Protestant eastern counties and a corresponding deterioration in the mor…
Entrepreneurial Behaviour within Male Work Histories
In this paper, aspects of entrepreneurship in Ireland-North and South-based upon a sample of 4300 male work histories are analysed. Complementary log-log models are employed to investigate the factors underlying the first business startup by an individual. A between-sector analysis of entrepreneurial behaviour is presented; the preceding employment experience of entrepreneurs is analysed; and their subsequent employment spell is examined. Results…
A moments approach for omitted variables in residential histories and other panel data
This paper reviews the problems of omitted variables in panel data analysis. Results obtained from previous analyses have been shown to be sensitive to the particular parametric forms assumed for the distribution of omitted variables. An alternative non‐parametric approach is described in which the effects of omitted variables enter the model through the non‐central moments of an error term distribution. A reparametrisation ensures that the const…
Dynamic Models of Shopping Behaviour
Stochastic process models are identified as a suitable framework within which to examine dynamic consumer choice behaviour and to test the assumptions which underlie other simple behavioural models. A distinction is drawn between choice series and renewal series and the concepts of heterogeneity, non-stationarity and feedback are introduced. Some empirical problems in the testing of stochastic process models are discussed and illustrated by refer…
Modelling the evolution of heterogeneity in residential mobility
Migration probabilities are known to vary over the population (heterogeneity) and over time (nonstationarity). It is shown that if the heterogeneity is represented by an SB mixing distribution and the nonstationarity by a set of arbitrary logistic scaling functions, then not only may all sources of heterogeneity, including tastes, be modelled, but heterogeneity at different points in time may be readily compared. The model is calibrated using dat…
Identification of some recurrent choice processes
Many social processes may be studied as collections of binary series. The processes which generate such series may be heterogeneous over the population, non‐stationary over time and may exhibit a feedback effect, such as "cumulative inertia." Methods, using maximum likelihood estimation, are developed which model arbitrary heterogeneity and non‐stationarity to provide an effective test of the presence of "true contagion" or feedback effects. Wher…
Models of Movement
This paper reviews methods available to analyse movement and in particular migration. Stochastic process models seem able to provide a framework for microanalysis which can incorporate much of the complexity of such processes. However, a consideration of the effect of macro-constraints, in the form of limited opportunities for movement and of interhousehold competition, leads to a distinction between fixed transition rate and fixed state occupanc…
Dynamic Models of Shopping Behaviour
Stochastic process models are identified as a suitable framework within which to examine dynamic consumer choice behaviour and to test the assumptions which underlie other simple behavioural models. A distinction is drawn between choice series and renewal series and the concepts of heterogeneity, non-stationarity and feedback are introduced. Some empirical problems in the testing of stochastic process models are discussed and illustrated by refer…
Modelling the evolution of heterogeneity in residential mobility
Migration probabilities are known to vary over the population (heterogeneity) and over time (nonstationarity). It is shown that if the heterogeneity is represented by an SB mixing distribution and the nonstationarity by a set of arbitrary logistic scaling functions, then not only may all sources of heterogeneity, including tastes, be modelled, but heterogeneity at different points in time may be readily compared. The model is calibrated using dat…
Identification of some recurrent choice processes
Many social processes may be studied as collections of binary series. The processes which generate such series may be heterogeneous over the population, non‐stationary over time and may exhibit a feedback effect, such as "cumulative inertia." Methods, using maximum likelihood estimation, are developed which model arbitrary heterogeneity and non‐stationarity to provide an effective test of the presence of "true contagion" or feedback effects. Wher…
Heterogeneity, Nonstationarity, and Duration-of-Stay Effects in Migration
This paper briefly outlines the theoretical problem of the identification of duration-of-stay effects in migration. The empirical studies are critically reviewed with particular emphasis upon their treatment of heterogeneity and nonstationarity. New statistical tests developed by the authors are applied to Wisconsin migration data. These tests suggest that although heterogeneity and nonstationarity are strongly present within the data, duration-o…
A Family of Hypothesis Tests for a Collection of Short Event Series with an Application to Female Employment Participation
Data comprising a collection of short event series are increasingly encountered in social science research. Such series may be expected to be heterogeneous and nonstationary precluding conventional inferential methods. Tests are presented for homogeneity, nonstationarity, and zero order, with appropriate controls. The test procedures are based upon the subdivision of each series into a 'conditioning sequence' and an 'experimental observation'. Th…
Event History Testing
Heterogeneity and nonstationarity typically present in sociological time series have prevented rigorous testing of the axiom of cumulative inertia (McGinnis, 1968). An hypothesis test is presented for event history effects in a collection of short event series controlling for heterogeneity and nonstationarity. The test is applied to the Southeast Wisconsin residential mobility data of Clark et al. (1977, 1979). The results indicate no evidence of…
A moments approach for omitted variables in residential histories and other panel data
This paper reviews the problems of omitted variables in panel data analysis. Results obtained from previous analyses have been shown to be sensitive to the particular parametric forms assumed for the distribution of omitted variables. An alternative non‐parametric approach is described in which the effects of omitted variables enter the model through the non‐central moments of an error term distribution. A reparametrisation ensures that the const…
Some Methods for the Testing and Estimation of Dynamic Models Which Use Panel Data
In this paper the authors address some of the inferential problems posed by longitudinal data on the discrete choice behaviour of a collection of individuals. In particular, an integrated framework is developed which enables heterogeneity and nonstationarity to be explicitly included in stochastic models of binary choice behaviour. The emphasis is upon minimum assumptions about the nature and determinants of heterogeneity and nonstationarity, as …
Wage distributions and spatial preferences in competitive job search and migration
Aggregate interstate migration data [for the United States] indicate that the majority of observed flows are from higher to lower wage states, quite contrary to the predictions of human capital theory. It is argued that a search theoretic framework may be used to complement and strengthen human capital theory. Such a framework may then include consideration of the flows of job information and aspects of job competition. A model is proposed for ap…
Individual and Geographical Variation in Longitudinal Voting Data for England 1964–1970
A two-state Markov model of individual voting transitions is developed which allows voters to differ with respect to their voting propensities and loyalties. Such a model allows the estimation of various process parameters without the specification errors common in other models. Additional parameters are introduced to allow for the effects of a third party, considerably extending the scope of application. The model is applied to the electoral vot…
Longitudinal versus Cross-Sectional Methods for Behavioural Research
It is explained that statistical problems over omitted variables and endogenous factors cast doubt upon the wisdom of attempting inference about many forms of human behaviour from cross-sectional data. Simulations are used to confirm that cross-sectional analyses can produce seriously misleading results. The problems are avoided by using longitudinal methods
An Analysis of Entrepreneurial Behaviour from Male Work Histories
PICKLES A. R. and O'FARRELL P. N. (1987) An analysis of entrepreneurial behaviour from male work histories, Reg. Studies 21, 425–444. This paper analyses entrepreneurship in Ireland—North and South—based upon a sample of 4,300 male work histories. There is an extremely low rate of entrepreneurship in Ireland and only 8% of new ventures were in manufacturing. Complementary log-log models are used to analyse the factors underlying an individual's f…
An Empirical Comparison of Conditional and Marginal Likelihood Methods in a Longitudinal Study
A derivation of a logistic choice model suggests the importance of omitted variables, which may be tackled using either conditional or marginal likelihood methods. The two approaches seem to give different results when applied to data from the Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Reasons for these discrepant results are explored by examining the correlation of included and omitted effects, the distributionlal form of those omitted effects, an…
Entrepreneurial Behaviour within Male Work Histories
In this paper, aspects of entrepreneurship in Ireland-North and South-based upon a sample of 4300 male work histories are analysed. Complementary log-log models are employed to investigate the factors underlying the first business startup by an individual. A between-sector analysis of entrepreneurial behaviour is presented; the preceding employment experience of entrepreneurs is analysed; and their subsequent employment spell is examined. Results…
The Empirical Analysis of Housing Careers
It is argued that the notion of housing careers has an important potential role in integrating the diverse theoretical perspectives which characterise research into residential mobility and tenure choice. By the synthesis of concepts from a range of theoretical and empirical traditions, a statistical modelling framework is developed that treats housing careers as trajectories from a dynamic optimisation process. This framework is operationalised …
Expression of negative affect with disciplinary encounters
This article examines the evidence for the reciprocity of negative affect between mothers and young children within disciplinary encounters. A conceptual schema that aids systematic exploration of observational data was used
An Analysis of Housing Careers in Cardiff
Data on housing careers in Cardiff are analysed within the statistical modelling framework developed in a companion paper. Several simplifying assumptions were necessary to overcome complex statistical and computational problems but the results obtained appear to be robust. However, these results include some features which were unexpected and difficult to interpret
Duration of Unemployment among Men in Northern Ireland
Male unemployment in Northern Ireland from 1926 to 1973 is examined by using aggregate time series and individual life-history data. County-specific and sector-specific unemployment rates are derived from various published statistics by using an entropy-maximising procedure. These aggregate data show a systematic relative improvement in male unemployment in the predominantly Protestant eastern counties and a corresponding deterioration in the mor…
Using the ADI-R to diagnose autism in preschool children
The use of an investigator-based interview (Autism Diagnostic Interview—Revised; ADI-R) in the diagnosis of 51 autistic and 43 nonautistic mentally handicapped preschool children of equivalent mental and chronological age is described. Significant differences occurred between the groups on every diagnostic subdomain from the DSM-IV/ICD-10 draft criteria, except specific aspects of stereotyped language, still relatively rare in these young childre…
Validity of the Malaise Inventory in general population samples
The Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule—Generic
Multilevel Risk Models for Retrospective Age-Of-Onset Data
Survival analysis provides a natural conceptual framework for considering risk.However, survey data on age of onset typically possess measurement error and sample design complexities that are absent from the usual settings in which survival analysis is applied.The authors describe a random effects discrete time survival model that addresses these problems.They illustrate its use by an analysis of retrospective report data on the age of onset of s…
Testing hypotheses on specific environmental causal effects on behavior
There have been strong critiques of the notion that environmental influences can have an important effect on psychological functioning. The substance of these criticisms is considered in order to infer the methodological challenges that have to be met. Concepts of cause and of the testing of causal effects are discussed with a particular focus on the need to consider sample selection and the value (and limitations) of longitudinal data. The desig…
Reliable Estimation of Generalized Linear Mixed Models using Adaptive Quadrature
Generalized linear mixed models or multilevel regression models have become increasingly popular. Several methods have been proposed for estimating such models. However, to date there is no single method that can be assumed to work well in all circumstances in terms of both parameter recovery and computational efficiency. Stata's xt commands for two-level generalized linear mixed models (e.g., xtlogit) employ Gauss–Hermite quadrature to evaluate …
Psychology (29 obras) · Mathematics (21 obras) · Statistics (19 obras) · Medicine (18 obras) · Computer Science (17 obras) · Developmental psychology (17 obras) · Econometrics (17 obras) · Clinical Psychology (16 obras) · Economics (16 obras) · Psychiatry (16 obras)