Charles R Nelson
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 1454537 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Charles R Nelson |
| PRENOMES | Charles R |
| SOBRENOME | Nelson |
| ASSINATURA | NELSON C R |
| AFILIAÇÕES | University of Washington |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-7508-0859 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 22 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 81 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 22 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1970 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2020 |
| ÍNDICE H | 3 |
Assessing restoration priorities for high-risk ecosystems
Land clearing and ecosystem degradation are primary causes of loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide, putting at risk sustainable options for Earth and humankind. According to recent global estimates, degraded lands already account for at least 1 and up to 6 billion ha. Given high rates of habitat degradation and loss of biodiversity in human-dominated landscapes with high levels of ecosystem transformation, conventional approaches…
International principles and standards for the practice of ecological restoration. Second edition
The Society for Ecological Restoration (SER) is an international non-profit organization with members in 70 countries. SER advances the science, practice and policy of ecological restoration to sustain biodiversity, improve resilience in a changing climate, and re-establish an ecologically healthy relationship between nature and culture. SER is a dynamic global network, linking researchers, practitioners, land managers, community leaders and deci…
Rethinking resilience to wildfire
Record-breaking fire seasons are becoming increasingly common worldwide, and large wildfires are having extraordinary impacts on people and property, despite years of investments to support social–ecological resilience to wildfires. This has prompted new calls for land management and policy reforms as current land and fire management approaches have been unable to effectively respond to the rapid changes in climate and development patterns that s…
Core principles for successfully implementing and upscaling Nature-based Solutions
Despite substantial increases in the scope and magnitude of biodiversity conservation and ecological restoration, there remains ongoing degradation of natural resources that adversely affects both biodiversity and human well-being. Nature-based Solutions (NbS) can be an effective framework for reversing this trend, by increasing the alignment between conservation and sustainable development objectives. However, unless there is clarity on its evol…
The Structural Break in the Equity Premium
This article uses Bayesian marginal likelihood analysis to compare univariate models of the stock return behavior and test for structural breaks in the equity premium. The analysis favors a model that relates the equity premium to Markov-switching changes in the level of market volatility and accommodates volatility feedback. For this model, there is evidence of a one-time structural break in the equity premium in the 1940s, with no evidence of a…
The Less-Volatile U.S. Economy
Using a Bayesian model comparison strategy, we search for a volatility reduction in U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) growth within the postwar sample. We find that aggregate real GDP growth has been less volatile since the early 1980s, and that this volatility reduction is concentrated in the cyclical component of real GDP.Sales and production growth in many of the components of real GDP display similar reductions in volatility, suggesting …
Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different
This paper reconciles two widely used decompositions of GDP into trend and cycle that yield starkly different results. The Beveridge-Nelson (BN) decomposition implies that a stochastic trend accounts for most of the variation in output, whereas the unobserved-components (UC) implies cyclical variation is dominant. Which is correct has broad implications for the relative importance of real versus nominal shocks. We show the difference arises from …
Markov Regime Switching and Unit-Root Tests
We investigate the power and size performance of unit-root tests when the data undergo Markov regime switching. All tests, including those robust to a single break in trend growth rate, have low power against a process with a Markov-switching trend. Under the null hypothesis, we find that previously documented size distortions in Dickey–Fuller-type tests caused by a single break in trend growth rate or variance do not generalize to most parameter…
State-Space Models with Regime Switching
Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data…
Has the U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based on a Markov-Switching Model of the Business Cycle
We hope to answer three questions: Has there been a structural break in postwar U.S. real GDP growth towards stabilization? If so, when? What is the nature of this structural break?We employ a Bayesian approach to identify a structural break at an unknown changepoint in a Markov-switching model of the business cycle. Empirical results suggest a break in GDP growth toward stabilization, with the posterior mode of the break date at 1984:1. Furtherm…
Business Cycle Turning Points, A New Coincident Index, and Tests of Duration Dependence Based on a Dynamic Factor Model With Regime Switching
The synthesis of the dynamic factor model of Stock and Watson (1989) and the regime-switching model of Hamilton (1989) proposed by Diebold and Rudebusch (1996) potentially encompasses both features of the business cycle identified by Burns and Mitchell (1946): (1) comovement among economic variables through the cycle and (2) nonlinearity in its evolution. However, maximum-likelihood estimation has required approximation. Recent advances in multim…
The Time-Varying-Parameter Model for Modeling Changing Conditional Variance
The main econometric issue in testing the Lucas (1973) hypothesis in a time series context is estimation of the forecast-error variance conditional on past information. The conditional variance may vary through time as monetary policy evolves and agents are obliged to infer its present state. Under the assumption that a monetary policy regime is continuously changing, a time-varying-parameter model is proposed for the monetary-growth function. Ba…
A Reappraisal of Recent Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis
The Nerc Fan
forecasts of the growth in demand for electricity, published annually since 1974 by the North American Electric Reliability Council, have proved to be excessively optimistic, although the projected growth rate has been revised downward each year. Should forecasters have been able to do a better job of predicting the slowdown in demand growth since the early 1970s? Should they have responded more quickly as actual demand growth fell short of proje…
Pitfalls in the Use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression
Regression of a trendless random walk on time produces R-squared values around .44 regardless of sample length. The residuals from the regression exhibit only about 14% as much variation as the original series even though the underlying process has no functional dependence on time. The autocorrelation structure of these “detrended” random walks is pseudo-cyclical and purely artifactual. Conventional tests for trend are strongly biased toward find…
Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series
A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the ‘business cycle’
The Sino-Viet War
Although the 28-day military campaign has ended, the full consequences of the Sino-Viet War will not be felt for some time. These consequences are likely to have profound and persisting effects on the major relationships in East Asia. Some of these effects are beginning to emerge, and a preliminary analysis suggests the following developments: PRC-Vietnam relations will be hostile as both sides upgrade military defenses along the 1300-kilometer b…
Recursive Structure in U.S. Income, Prices, and Output
The objective of the paper is to test the hypothesis that the structure of the economy is recursive with disturbances flowing from income to prices, but not back to income. Under this hypothesis, inflation shocks result in corresponding changes in output of the opposite sign. Tests are based on analysis of the vector stochastic process of GNP, the price deflator, and real GNP for the United States from 1954 to 1970. The results are consistent wit…
Granger Causality and the Natural Rate Hypothesis
Testing a Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in an Error-learning Framework
A Critique of Some Recent Empirical Research on the Explanation of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Core principles for successfully implementing and upscaling Nature-based Solutions
Despite substantial increases in the scope and magnitude of biodiversity conservation and ecological restoration, there remains ongoing degradation of natural resources that adversely affects both biodiversity and human well-being. Nature-based Solutions (NbS) can be an effective framework for reversing this trend, by increasing the alignment between conservation and sustainable development objectives. However, unless there is clarity on its evol…
Rethinking resilience to wildfire
Record-breaking fire seasons are becoming increasingly common worldwide, and large wildfires are having extraordinary impacts on people and property, despite years of investments to support social–ecological resilience to wildfires. This has prompted new calls for land management and policy reforms as current land and fire management approaches have been unable to effectively respond to the rapid changes in climate and development patterns that s…
Assessing restoration priorities for high-risk ecosystems
Land clearing and ecosystem degradation are primary causes of loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide, putting at risk sustainable options for Earth and humankind. According to recent global estimates, degraded lands already account for at least 1 and up to 6 billion ha. Given high rates of habitat degradation and loss of biodiversity in human-dominated landscapes with high levels of ecosystem transformation, conventional approaches…
A Reappraisal of Recent Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis
A Critique of Some Recent Empirical Research on the Explanation of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Testing a Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in an Error-learning Framework
The Sino-Viet War
Although the 28-day military campaign has ended, the full consequences of the Sino-Viet War will not be felt for some time. These consequences are likely to have profound and persisting effects on the major relationships in East Asia. Some of these effects are beginning to emerge, and a preliminary analysis suggests the following developments: PRC-Vietnam relations will be hostile as both sides upgrade military defenses along the 1300-kilometer b…
Recursive Structure in U.S. Income, Prices, and Output
The objective of the paper is to test the hypothesis that the structure of the economy is recursive with disturbances flowing from income to prices, but not back to income. Under this hypothesis, inflation shocks result in corresponding changes in output of the opposite sign. Tests are based on analysis of the vector stochastic process of GNP, the price deflator, and real GNP for the United States from 1954 to 1970. The results are consistent wit…
Granger Causality and the Natural Rate Hypothesis
A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the ‘business cycle’
Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series
Pitfalls in the Use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression
Regression of a trendless random walk on time produces R-squared values around .44 regardless of sample length. The residuals from the regression exhibit only about 14% as much variation as the original series even though the underlying process has no functional dependence on time. The autocorrelation structure of these “detrended” random walks is pseudo-cyclical and purely artifactual. Conventional tests for trend are strongly biased toward find…
The Nerc Fan
forecasts of the growth in demand for electricity, published annually since 1974 by the North American Electric Reliability Council, have proved to be excessively optimistic, although the projected growth rate has been revised downward each year. Should forecasters have been able to do a better job of predicting the slowdown in demand growth since the early 1970s? Should they have responded more quickly as actual demand growth fell short of proje…
A Reappraisal of Recent Tests of the Permanent Income Hypothesis
The Time-Varying-Parameter Model for Modeling Changing Conditional Variance
The main econometric issue in testing the Lucas (1973) hypothesis in a time series context is estimation of the forecast-error variance conditional on past information. The conditional variance may vary through time as monetary policy evolves and agents are obliged to infer its present state. Under the assumption that a monetary policy regime is continuously changing, a time-varying-parameter model is proposed for the monetary-growth function. Ba…
Business Cycle Turning Points, A New Coincident Index, and Tests of Duration Dependence Based on a Dynamic Factor Model With Regime Switching
The synthesis of the dynamic factor model of Stock and Watson (1989) and the regime-switching model of Hamilton (1989) proposed by Diebold and Rudebusch (1996) potentially encompasses both features of the business cycle identified by Burns and Mitchell (1946): (1) comovement among economic variables through the cycle and (2) nonlinearity in its evolution. However, maximum-likelihood estimation has required approximation. Recent advances in multim…
State-Space Models with Regime Switching
Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data…
Has the U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based on a Markov-Switching Model of the Business Cycle
We hope to answer three questions: Has there been a structural break in postwar U.S. real GDP growth towards stabilization? If so, when? What is the nature of this structural break?We employ a Bayesian approach to identify a structural break at an unknown changepoint in a Markov-switching model of the business cycle. Empirical results suggest a break in GDP growth toward stabilization, with the posterior mode of the break date at 1984:1. Furtherm…
Markov Regime Switching and Unit-Root Tests
We investigate the power and size performance of unit-root tests when the data undergo Markov regime switching. All tests, including those robust to a single break in trend growth rate, have low power against a process with a Markov-switching trend. Under the null hypothesis, we find that previously documented size distortions in Dickey–Fuller-type tests caused by a single break in trend growth rate or variance do not generalize to most parameter…
Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different
This paper reconciles two widely used decompositions of GDP into trend and cycle that yield starkly different results. The Beveridge-Nelson (BN) decomposition implies that a stochastic trend accounts for most of the variation in output, whereas the unobserved-components (UC) implies cyclical variation is dominant. Which is correct has broad implications for the relative importance of real versus nominal shocks. We show the difference arises from …
The Less-Volatile U.S. Economy
Using a Bayesian model comparison strategy, we search for a volatility reduction in U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) growth within the postwar sample. We find that aggregate real GDP growth has been less volatile since the early 1980s, and that this volatility reduction is concentrated in the cyclical component of real GDP.Sales and production growth in many of the components of real GDP display similar reductions in volatility, suggesting …
The Structural Break in the Equity Premium
This article uses Bayesian marginal likelihood analysis to compare univariate models of the stock return behavior and test for structural breaks in the equity premium. The analysis favors a model that relates the equity premium to Markov-switching changes in the level of market volatility and accommodates volatility feedback. For this model, there is evidence of a one-time structural break in the equity premium in the 1940s, with no evidence of a…
International principles and standards for the practice of ecological restoration. Second edition
The Society for Ecological Restoration (SER) is an international non-profit organization with members in 70 countries. SER advances the science, practice and policy of ecological restoration to sustain biodiversity, improve resilience in a changing climate, and re-establish an ecologically healthy relationship between nature and culture. SER is a dynamic global network, linking researchers, practitioners, land managers, community leaders and deci…
Rethinking resilience to wildfire
Record-breaking fire seasons are becoming increasingly common worldwide, and large wildfires are having extraordinary impacts on people and property, despite years of investments to support social–ecological resilience to wildfires. This has prompted new calls for land management and policy reforms as current land and fire management approaches have been unable to effectively respond to the rapid changes in climate and development patterns that s…
Core principles for successfully implementing and upscaling Nature-based Solutions
Despite substantial increases in the scope and magnitude of biodiversity conservation and ecological restoration, there remains ongoing degradation of natural resources that adversely affects both biodiversity and human well-being. Nature-based Solutions (NbS) can be an effective framework for reversing this trend, by increasing the alignment between conservation and sustainable development objectives. However, unless there is clarity on its evol…
Assessing restoration priorities for high-risk ecosystems
Land clearing and ecosystem degradation are primary causes of loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide, putting at risk sustainable options for Earth and humankind. According to recent global estimates, degraded lands already account for at least 1 and up to 6 billion ha. Given high rates of habitat degradation and loss of biodiversity in human-dominated landscapes with high levels of ecosystem transformation, conventional approaches…
Economics (16 obras) · Econometrics (14 obras) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (12 obras) · Mathematics (10 obras) · Statistics (10 obras) · Economic theories and models (6 obras) · Market Dynamics and Volatility (6 obras) · Computer Science (5 obras) · Environmental Science (5 obras) · Geography (5 obras)