Kenneth Rogoff
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 1456500 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Kenneth Rogoff |
| PRENOMES | Kenneth |
| SOBRENOME | Rogoff |
| ASSINATURA | ROGOFF K |
| AFILIAÇÕES | National Bureau of Economic Research |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-1505-4998 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 40 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 257 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 38 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 2 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1983 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 8 |
Rethinking the Informal Economy and the Hugo Effect
This paper offers a new approach to measuring the size of the informal economy based on VAT data for the European Union. Although data intensive, our evading value added duty economy (EVADE) measure is simpler and more transparent than existing measures. EVADE also shows more variation across countries of Europe than earlier measures, including higher informality in Greece, Italy, and Spain, for example. Moreover, we find considerably higher vari…
Rethinking the Informal Economy and the Hugo Effect
Handbook of International Economics
Emerging Market Sovereign Debt in the Aftermath of the Pandemic
For emerging markets, fiscal space is a very real constraint that can surface under a variety of circumstances, including rising world interest rates, falling commodity prices, or a global recession. Some emerging markets, and the majority of low-income developing economies, are already in debt distress or default. Near-term, making sure that troubled debtor countries are aware of the full menu of options, including heterodox strategies such as d…
The Curse of Cash
From the New York Times bestselling author of This Time Is Different, "a fascinating and important book" (Ben Bernanke) about the surprising reasons why paper money lies at the heart of many of the world’s most difficult problemsThe world is drowning in cash—and it’s making us poorer and less safe. In The Curse of Cash, acclaimed economist Kenneth Rogoff explores the past, present, and future of currency, from ancient China to today’s cryptocurre…
Dealing with Monetary Paralysis at the Zero Bound
Recently, the key constraint for central banks is the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Central banks fear that if they push short-term policy interest rates too deeply negative, there will be a massive flight into paper currency. This paper asks whether, in a world where paper currency is becoming increasingly vestigial outside small transactions (at least in the legal, tax compliant economy), there might be relatively simple ways to f…
The Curse of Cash
From the New York Times bestselling author of This Time Is Different , “a fascinating and important book” (Ben Bernanke) about phasing out most paper money to fight crime and tax evasion—and to battle financial crises by tapping the power of negative interest rates The world is drowning in cash—and it’s making us poorer and less safe. In The Curse of Cash , Kenneth Rogoff, one of the world’s leading economists, makes a persuasive and fascinating …
Handbook of International Economics
Public Debt Overhangs
We identify the major public debt overhang episodes in the advanced economies since the early 1800s, characterized by public debt to GDP levels exceeding 90 percent for at least five years. Consistent with Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and most of the more recent research, we find that public debt overhang episodes are associated with lower growth than during other periods. The duration of the average debt overhang episode is perhaps its most striki…
From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis
Newly developed historical time series on public debt, along with data on external debts, allow a deeper analysis of the debt cycles underlying serial debt and banking crises. We test three related hypotheses at both “world” aggregate levels and on an individual country basis. First, external debt surges are an antecedent to banking crises. Second, banking crises (domestic and those in financial centers) often precede or accompany sovereign debt …
The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt
The literature on domestic debt default is sparse, as are the data. We compile a database on public debt that spans the nineteenth century to 2010. Our findings are as follows. First, domestic debt accounts for almost two‐thirds of public debt. Second, the data help to explain the puzzle of why countries default on external debts at seemingly low debt thresholds. Third, domestic debt (which is often larger than the monetary base in the run‐up to …
Growth in a Time of Debt
We study economic growth and inflation at different levels of government and external debt. Our analysis is based on new data on forty-four countries spanning about two hundred years. The dataset incorporates over 3,700 annual observations covering a wide range of political systems, institutions, exchange rate arrangements, and historic circumstances. Our main findings are: First, the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is we…
This Time Is Different
The Aftermath of Financial Crises
A year ago, we presented a historical analysis comparing the run-up to the 2007 US subprime financial crisis with the antecedents of other banking crises in advanced economies since World War II (Reinhart and Rogoff 2008a ). We showed that standard indicators for the United States, such as asset price inflation, rising lever age, large sustained current account deficits, and a slowing trajectory of economic growth, exhibited virtually all the sig…
This Time is Different
This paper offers a "panoramic" analysis of the history of financial crises dating from England's fourteenth-century default to the current United States sub-prime financial crisis.Our study is based on a new dataset that spans all regions.It incorporates a number of important credit episodes seldom covered in the literature, including for example, defaults and restructurings in India and China.As the first paper employing this data, our aim is t…
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005
This 20th edition of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual treats many questions at the cutting edge of macroeconomics that are central to current policy debates. The papers and discussions include an analysis of the differential between American and European unemployment rates, with the authors of the paper taking issue with Edward Prescott's view that higher European tax rates are responsible; a provocative account of the relationship between fluctuat…
Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth
Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments
Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth S. Rogoff This is the third in a series of papers we have written over the past five years about the growing U.S. current account deficit and the potentially sharp exchange rate movements any future adjustment toward current account balance might imply.1 The problem has hardly gone away in those five years. Indeed, the U.S. current account deficit today i…
The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements
We develop a novel system of re-classifying historical exchange rate regimes.One difference between our study and previous classification efforts is that we employ an extensive data base on market-determined parallel exchange rates.Our "natural" classification algorithm leads to a stark reassessment of the post-war history of exchange rate arrangements.When the official categorization is a form of peg, roughly half the time our classification rev…
A Development Nightmare
Europe's Quiet Leap Forward
Bush Throws a Party
The Cost of Living Dangerously
The IMF's China Card
The IMF Strikes Back
It's Baaack
s Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap THE LIQUIDITY TRAP-that awkward condition in which monetary policy loses its grip because the nominal interest rate is essentially zero, in which the quantity of money becomes irrelevant because money and bonds are essentially perfect substitutes-played a central role in the early years of macroeconomics as a discipline.John Hicks, in introducing both the IS-LM model and the liquidity trap, identified …
This Time is Different
This paper offers a "panoramic" analysis of the history of financial crises dating from England's fourteenth-century default to the current United States sub-prime financial crisis.Our study is based on a new dataset that spans all regions.It incorporates a number of important credit episodes seldom covered in the literature, including for example, defaults and restructurings in India and China.As the first paper employing this data, our aim is t…
A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt
Few sovereign debtors have repudiated their obligations entirely. But despite the significant sanctions at the disposal of lenders, many borrowers have been able to consistently negotiate for reduced repayments. This paper presents a model of the on-going bargaining process that determines repayment levels
The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates
This paper discusses the profound difficulties of maintaining fixed exchange rates in a world of expanding global capital markets. Contrary to popular wisdom, industrialized-country monetary authorities easily have the resources to defend exchange parities against virtually any private speculative attack. But if their commitment to use those resources lacks credibility with markets, the costs to the broader economy of defending an exchange-rate p…
Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments
Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth S. Rogoff This is the third in a series of papers we have written over the past five years about the growing U.S. current account deficit and the potentially sharp exchange rate movements any future adjustment toward current account balance might imply.1 The problem has hardly gone away in those five years. Indeed, the U.S. current account deficit today i…
International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability
This paper asks how recent developments in research on banking and sovereign lending can help inform the debate on choosing a new international financial architecture. A broad range of plans is considered, including a global lender of last resort facility, an international bankruptcy court, an international debt insurance corporation, and unilateral controls on capital flows. One common failing of the main plans that have been proposed is that th…
The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt
The literature on domestic debt default is sparse, as are the data. We compile a database on public debt that spans the nineteenth century to 2010. Our findings are as follows. First, domestic debt accounts for almost two‐thirds of public debt. Second, the data help to explain the puzzle of why countries default on external debts at seemingly low debt thresholds. Third, domestic debt (which is often larger than the monetary base in the run‐up to …
Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux
We develop an analytically tractable two-country model that marries a full account of global macroeconomic dynamics to a supply framework based on monopolistic competition and sticky nominal prices. The model offers simple and intuitive predictions about exchange rates and current accounts that sometimes differ sharply from those of either modern flexible-price intertemporal models or traditional sticky-price Keynesian models. Our analysis leads …
Public Debt Overhangs
We identify the major public debt overhang episodes in the advanced economies since the early 1800s, characterized by public debt to GDP levels exceeding 90 percent for at least five years. Consistent with Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and most of the more recent research, we find that public debt overhang episodes are associated with lower growth than during other periods. The duration of the average debt overhang episode is perhaps its most striki…
Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models
This paper uses an infinite-horizon model based on individual maximizing behavior to study whether explosive price-level paths unrelated to monetary growth--speculative hyperinflations--can be equilibrium paths under rational expectations. In a pure fiat money regime, speculative hyperinflations can be excluded only through severe restrictions on individual preferences; but when the government fractionally backs the currency by guaranteeing a min…
The IMF Strikes Back
Cleaning up Third World Debt Without Getting Taken to the Cleaners
Should taxpayers of wealthy countries finance a leveraged buyout of third world debt? The case for establishing an international debt discount facility rests on the belief that the overhang of foreign commercial bank debt is stifling growth in the Highly Indebted Countries, and that coordination problems among private sector banks are blocking efficiency-enhancing debt reduction schemes. Thus there is scope for a multilateral government agency to…
Dealing with Monetary Paralysis at the Zero Bound
Recently, the key constraint for central banks is the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. Central banks fear that if they push short-term policy interest rates too deeply negative, there will be a massive flight into paper currency. This paper asks whether, in a world where paper currency is becoming increasingly vestigial outside small transactions (at least in the legal, tax compliant economy), there might be relatively simple ways to f…
Bush Throws a Party
The Cost of Living Dangerously
Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies
Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models
This paper uses an infinite-horizon model based on individual maximizing behavior to study whether explosive price-level paths unrelated to monetary growth--speculative hyperinflations--can be equilibrium paths under rational expectations. In a pure fiat money regime, speculative hyperinflations can be excluded only through severe restrictions on individual preferences; but when the government fractionally backs the currency by guaranteeing a min…
The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target
Society can sometimes make itself better off by appointing a central banker who does not share the social objective function, but instead places “too large” a weight on inflation-rate stabilization relative to employment stabilization. Although having such an agent head the central bank reduces the time-consistent rate of inflation, it suboptimally raises the variance of employment when supply shocks are large. Using an envelope theorem, we show …
Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles
There is an extensive empirical literature on political business cycles, but its theoretical foundations are grounded in pre-rational expectations macroeconomic theory. Here we show that electoral cycles in taxes, government spending and money growth can be modeled as an equilibrium signaling process. The cycle is driven by temporary information asymmetries which can arise if, for example, the government has more current information on its perfor…
A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt
Few sovereign debtors have repudiated their obligations entirely. But despite the significant sanctions at the disposal of lenders, many borrowers have been able to consistently negotiate for reduced repayments. This paper presents a model of the on-going bargaining process that determines repayment levels
Symposium on New Institutions for Developing Country Debt
Kenneth Rogoff provides a brief synopsis of the developing country debt problem
Cleaning up Third World Debt Without Getting Taken to the Cleaners
Should taxpayers of wealthy countries finance a leveraged buyout of third world debt? The case for establishing an international debt discount facility rests on the belief that the overhang of foreign commercial bank debt is stifling growth in the Highly Indebted Countries, and that coordination problems among private sector banks are blocking efficiency-enhancing debt reduction schemes. Thus there is scope for a multilateral government agency to…
Handbook of International Economics Volume 3 (Handbooks in Economics)
Preface to the handbook
Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux
We develop an analytically tractable two-country model that marries a full account of global macroeconomic dynamics to a supply framework based on monopolistic competition and sticky nominal prices. The model offers simple and intuitive predictions about exchange rates and current accounts that sometimes differ sharply from those of either modern flexible-price intertemporal models or traditional sticky-price Keynesian models. Our analysis leads …
The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates
This paper discusses the profound difficulties of maintaining fixed exchange rates in a world of expanding global capital markets. Contrary to popular wisdom, industrialized-country monetary authorities easily have the resources to defend exchange parities against virtually any private speculative attack. But if their commitment to use those resources lacks credibility with markets, the costs to the broader economy of defending an exchange-rate p…
It's Baaack
s Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap THE LIQUIDITY TRAP-that awkward condition in which monetary policy loses its grip because the nominal interest rate is essentially zero, in which the quantity of money becomes irrelevant because money and bonds are essentially perfect substitutes-played a central role in the early years of macroeconomics as a discipline.John Hicks, in introducing both the IS-LM model and the liquidity trap, identified …
Monetary Models of Dollar/Yen/Euro Nominal Exchange Rates
International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability
This paper asks how recent developments in research on banking and sovereign lending can help inform the debate on choosing a new international financial architecture. A broad range of plans is considered, including a global lender of last resort facility, an international bankruptcy court, an international debt insurance corporation, and unilateral controls on capital flows. One common failing of the main plans that have been proposed is that th…
The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements
We develop a novel system of re-classifying historical exchange rate regimes. One difference between our study and previous classification efforts is that we employ an extensive data base on market-determined parallel exchange rates. Our "natural" classification algorithm leads to a stark reassessment of the post-war history of exchange rate arrangements. When the official categorization is a form of peg, roughly half the time our classification …
The IMF Strikes Back
The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements
We develop a novel system of re-classifying historical exchange rate regimes.One difference between our study and previous classification efforts is that we employ an extensive data base on market-determined parallel exchange rates.Our "natural" classification algorithm leads to a stark reassessment of the post-war history of exchange rate arrangements.When the official categorization is a form of peg, roughly half the time our classification rev…
A Development Nightmare
Europe's Quiet Leap Forward
Bush Throws a Party
The Cost of Living Dangerously
The IMF's China Card
Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments
Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth S. Rogoff This is the third in a series of papers we have written over the past five years about the growing U.S. current account deficit and the potentially sharp exchange rate movements any future adjustment toward current account balance might imply.1 The problem has hardly gone away in those five years. Indeed, the U.S. current account deficit today i…
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005
This 20th edition of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual treats many questions at the cutting edge of macroeconomics that are central to current policy debates. The papers and discussions include an analysis of the differential between American and European unemployment rates, with the authors of the paper taking issue with Edward Prescott's view that higher European tax rates are responsible; a provocative account of the relationship between fluctuat…
Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth
Economics (27 obras) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (19 obras) · Global Financial Crisis and Policies (17 obras) · Monetary economics (16 obras) · Macroeconomics (11 obras) · Political science (10 obras) · Business (9 obras) · Debt (9 obras) · Finance (9 obras) · Keynesian economics (8 obras)