Drew Shindell
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 1572840 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Drew Shindell |
| PRENOMES | Drew |
| SOBRENOME | Shindell |
| ASSINATURA | SHINDELL D |
| AFILIAÇÕES | Duke University |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-1552-4715 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 20 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 49 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 20 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2008 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 2 |
Ten new insights in climate science 2025
Non-Technical Summary This review highlights 10 recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, spanning diverse topics: (1) the global temperature jump of 2023–2024; (2) sea surface warming and marine heatwaves; (3) land carbon sinks; (4) interactions between climate change and biodiversity loss; (5) accelerated groundwater decline; (6) global dengue incidence; (7) income and labour productivity loss; (8) strategic conside…
Boosting solar efficiency
China has been vigorously developing the solar photovoltaic (PV) industry to address climate change and air pollution. While aerosols constitute a significant air pollutant that impairs PV generation efficiency, few studies have examined how China’s clean air action (CAA) plan has influenced solar PV performance. To address this gap, we employ the PVLIB-Python model to quantify PV capacity factors and power generation changes across China, due to…
Impacts of warming on outdoor worker well-being in the tropics and adaptation options
Evaluating net life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions intensities from gas and coal at varying methane leakage rates
The net climate impact of gas and coal life-cycle emissions are highly dependent on methane leakage. Every molecule of methane leaked alters the climate advantage because methane warms the planet significantly more than CO 2 over its decade-long lifetime. We find that global gas systems that leak over 4.7% of their methane (when considering a 20-year timeframe) or 7.6% (when considering a 100 year timeframe) are on par with life-cycle coal emissi…
Similar patterns of tropical precipitation and circulation changes under solar and greenhouse gas forcing
Theory and model evidence indicate a higher global hydrological sensitivity for the same amount of surface warming to solar as to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, but regional patterns are highly uncertain due to their dependence on circulation and dynamics. We analyse a multi-model ensemble of idealized experiments and a set of simulations of the last millennium and we demonstrate similar global signatures and patterns of forced response in the tro…
Global labor loss due to humid heat exposure underestimated for outdoor workers
Humid heat impacts a large portion of the world’s population that works outdoors. Previous studies have quantified humid heat impacts on labor productivity by relying on exposure response functions that are based on uncontrolled experiments under a limited range of heat and humidity. Here we use the latest empirical model, based on a wider range of temperatures and humidity, for studying the impact of humid heat and recent climate change on labor…
Acting rapidly to deploy readily available methane mitigation measures by sector can immediately slow global warming
Methane mitigation is essential for addressing climate change, but the value of rapidly implementing available mitigation measures is not well understood. In this paper, we analyze the climate benefits of fast action to reduce methane emissions as compared to slower and delayed mitigation timelines. We find that the scale up and deployment of greatly underutilized but available mitigation measures will have significant near-term temperature benef…
The long-term relationship between emissions and economic growth for SO 2 , CO 2 , and BC
Simplified assumptions regarding the relationship between per capita income and emissions are oftentimes utilized to generate future emission scenarios in integrated assessment models (IAMs). One such relationship is an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), where emissions first increase, then decline with income growth. However, current knowledge about this relationship lacks the specificity needed for each sector and pollutant pairing, which is im…
Measurement-based assessment of health burdens from long-term ozone exposure in the United States, Europe, and China
Long-term ozone (O _3 ) exposure estimates from chemical transport models are frequently paired with exposure-response relationships from epidemiological studies to estimate associated health burdens. Impact estimates using such methods can include biases from model-derived exposure estimates. We use data solely from dense ground-based monitoring networks in the United States, Europe, and China for 2015 to estimate long-term O _3 exposure and cal…
Agriculture production as a major driver of the Earth system exceeding planetary boundaries
Campbell, B. M., D. J. Beare, E. M. Bennett, J. M. Hall-Spencer, J. S. I. Ingram, F. Jaramillo, R. Ortiz, N. Ramankutty, J. A. Sayer, and D. Shindell. 2017. Agriculture production as a major driver of the Earth system exceeding planetary boundaries. Ecology and Society 22(4):8. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09595-220408
Do responses to different anthropogenic forcings add linearly in climate models
Many detection and attribution and pattern scaling studies assume that the global climate response to multiple forcings is additive: that the response over the historical period is statistically indistinguishable from the sum of the responses to individual forcings. Here, we use the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations from the CMIP5 archive…
Global distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone
Tropospheric ozone plays a major role in Earth’s atmospheric chemistry processes and also acts as an air pollutant and greenhouse gas. Due to its short lifetime, and dependence on sunlight and precursor emissions from natural and anthropogenic sources, tropospheric ozone’s abundance is highly variable in space and time on seasonal, interannual and decadal time-scales. Recent, and sometimes rapid, changes in observed ozone mixing ratios and ozone …
Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system
Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black‐carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; i…
Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change
Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry-climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated c…
Simultaneously Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change and Improving Human Health and Food Security
Why Wait? Tropospheric ozone can be dangerous to human health, can be harmful to vegetation, and is a major contributor to climate warming. Black carbon also has significant negative effects on health and air quality and causes warming of the atmosphere. Shindell et al. (p. 183 ) present results of an analysis of emissions, atmospheric processes, and impacts for each of these pollutants. Seven measures were identified that, if rapidly implemented…
The Changing Face of Arctic Snow Cover
Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols
We present and discuss a new dataset of gridded emissions covering the historical period (1850–2000) in decadal increments at a horizontal resolution of 0.5° in latitude and longitude. The primary purpose of this inventory is to provide consistent gridded emissions of reactive gases and aerosols for use in chemistry model simulations needed by climate models for the Climate Model Intercomparison Program #5 (CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmen…
Solar Influences on Climate
Understanding the influence of solar variability on the Earth's climate requires knowledge of solar variability, solar-terrestrial interactions, and the mechanisms determining the response of the Earth's climate system. We provide a summary of our current understanding in each of these three areas. Observations and mechanisms for the Sun's variability are described, including solar irradiance variations on both decadal and centennial time scales …
Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly
Patterns of Change The global climate record of the past 1500 years shows two long intervals of anomalous temperatures before the obvious anthropogenic warming of the 20th century: the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly between roughly 950 and 1250 A.D. and the Little Ice Age between around 1400 and 1700 A.D. It has become increasingly clear in recent years, however, that climate changes inevitably involve a complex pattern of regional changes, whose …
Aerosol climate effects and air quality impacts from 1980 to 2030
We investigate aerosol effects on climate for 1980, 1995 (meant to reflect present day) and 2030 using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model coupled to an on-line aerosol source and transport model with interactive oxidant and aerosol chemistry. Aerosols simulated include sulfates, organic matter (OM), black carbon (BC), sea-salt and dust and, additionally, the amount of tropospheric ozone is calculated, allowing us to estima…
Agriculture production as a major driver of the Earth system exceeding planetary boundaries
Campbell, B. M., D. J. Beare, E. M. Bennett, J. M. Hall-Spencer, J. S. I. Ingram, F. Jaramillo, R. Ortiz, N. Ramankutty, J. A. Sayer, and D. Shindell. 2017. Agriculture production as a major driver of the Earth system exceeding planetary boundaries. Ecology and Society 22(4):8. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09595-220408
The Changing Face of Arctic Snow Cover
Aerosol climate effects and air quality impacts from 1980 to 2030
We investigate aerosol effects on climate for 1980, 1995 (meant to reflect present day) and 2030 using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model coupled to an on-line aerosol source and transport model with interactive oxidant and aerosol chemistry. Aerosols simulated include sulfates, organic matter (OM), black carbon (BC), sea-salt and dust and, additionally, the amount of tropospheric ozone is calculated, allowing us to estima…
Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly
Patterns of Change The global climate record of the past 1500 years shows two long intervals of anomalous temperatures before the obvious anthropogenic warming of the 20th century: the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly between roughly 950 and 1250 A.D. and the Little Ice Age between around 1400 and 1700 A.D. It has become increasingly clear in recent years, however, that climate changes inevitably involve a complex pattern of regional changes, whose …
Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols
We present and discuss a new dataset of gridded emissions covering the historical period (1850–2000) in decadal increments at a horizontal resolution of 0.5° in latitude and longitude. The primary purpose of this inventory is to provide consistent gridded emissions of reactive gases and aerosols for use in chemistry model simulations needed by climate models for the Climate Model Intercomparison Program #5 (CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmen…
Solar Influences on Climate
Understanding the influence of solar variability on the Earth's climate requires knowledge of solar variability, solar-terrestrial interactions, and the mechanisms determining the response of the Earth's climate system. We provide a summary of our current understanding in each of these three areas. Observations and mechanisms for the Sun's variability are described, including solar irradiance variations on both decadal and centennial time scales …
The Changing Face of Arctic Snow Cover
Simultaneously Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change and Improving Human Health and Food Security
Why Wait? Tropospheric ozone can be dangerous to human health, can be harmful to vegetation, and is a major contributor to climate warming. Black carbon also has significant negative effects on health and air quality and causes warming of the atmosphere. Shindell et al. (p. 183 ) present results of an analysis of emissions, atmospheric processes, and impacts for each of these pollutants. Seven measures were identified that, if rapidly implemented…
Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system
Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black‐carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; i…
Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change
Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry-climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated c…
Global distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone
Tropospheric ozone plays a major role in Earth’s atmospheric chemistry processes and also acts as an air pollutant and greenhouse gas. Due to its short lifetime, and dependence on sunlight and precursor emissions from natural and anthropogenic sources, tropospheric ozone’s abundance is highly variable in space and time on seasonal, interannual and decadal time-scales. Recent, and sometimes rapid, changes in observed ozone mixing ratios and ozone …
Do responses to different anthropogenic forcings add linearly in climate models
Many detection and attribution and pattern scaling studies assume that the global climate response to multiple forcings is additive: that the response over the historical period is statistically indistinguishable from the sum of the responses to individual forcings. Here, we use the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations from the CMIP5 archive…
Agriculture production as a major driver of the Earth system exceeding planetary boundaries
Campbell, B. M., D. J. Beare, E. M. Bennett, J. M. Hall-Spencer, J. S. I. Ingram, F. Jaramillo, R. Ortiz, N. Ramankutty, J. A. Sayer, and D. Shindell. 2017. Agriculture production as a major driver of the Earth system exceeding planetary boundaries. Ecology and Society 22(4):8. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09595-220408
The long-term relationship between emissions and economic growth for SO 2 , CO 2 , and BC
Simplified assumptions regarding the relationship between per capita income and emissions are oftentimes utilized to generate future emission scenarios in integrated assessment models (IAMs). One such relationship is an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), where emissions first increase, then decline with income growth. However, current knowledge about this relationship lacks the specificity needed for each sector and pollutant pairing, which is im…
Measurement-based assessment of health burdens from long-term ozone exposure in the United States, Europe, and China
Long-term ozone (O _3 ) exposure estimates from chemical transport models are frequently paired with exposure-response relationships from epidemiological studies to estimate associated health burdens. Impact estimates using such methods can include biases from model-derived exposure estimates. We use data solely from dense ground-based monitoring networks in the United States, Europe, and China for 2015 to estimate long-term O _3 exposure and cal…
Similar patterns of tropical precipitation and circulation changes under solar and greenhouse gas forcing
Theory and model evidence indicate a higher global hydrological sensitivity for the same amount of surface warming to solar as to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, but regional patterns are highly uncertain due to their dependence on circulation and dynamics. We analyse a multi-model ensemble of idealized experiments and a set of simulations of the last millennium and we demonstrate similar global signatures and patterns of forced response in the tro…
Global labor loss due to humid heat exposure underestimated for outdoor workers
Humid heat impacts a large portion of the world’s population that works outdoors. Previous studies have quantified humid heat impacts on labor productivity by relying on exposure response functions that are based on uncontrolled experiments under a limited range of heat and humidity. Here we use the latest empirical model, based on a wider range of temperatures and humidity, for studying the impact of humid heat and recent climate change on labor…
Acting rapidly to deploy readily available methane mitigation measures by sector can immediately slow global warming
Methane mitigation is essential for addressing climate change, but the value of rapidly implementing available mitigation measures is not well understood. In this paper, we analyze the climate benefits of fast action to reduce methane emissions as compared to slower and delayed mitigation timelines. We find that the scale up and deployment of greatly underutilized but available mitigation measures will have significant near-term temperature benef…
Evaluating net life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions intensities from gas and coal at varying methane leakage rates
The net climate impact of gas and coal life-cycle emissions are highly dependent on methane leakage. Every molecule of methane leaked alters the climate advantage because methane warms the planet significantly more than CO 2 over its decade-long lifetime. We find that global gas systems that leak over 4.7% of their methane (when considering a 20-year timeframe) or 7.6% (when considering a 100 year timeframe) are on par with life-cycle coal emissi…
Impacts of warming on outdoor worker well-being in the tropics and adaptation options
Boosting solar efficiency
China has been vigorously developing the solar photovoltaic (PV) industry to address climate change and air pollution. While aerosols constitute a significant air pollutant that impairs PV generation efficiency, few studies have examined how China’s clean air action (CAA) plan has influenced solar PV performance. To address this gap, we employ the PVLIB-Python model to quantify PV capacity factors and power generation changes across China, due to…
Ten new insights in climate science 2025
Non-Technical Summary This review highlights 10 recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, spanning diverse topics: (1) the global temperature jump of 2023–2024; (2) sea surface warming and marine heatwaves; (3) land carbon sinks; (4) interactions between climate change and biodiversity loss; (5) accelerated groundwater decline; (6) global dengue incidence; (7) income and labour productivity loss; (8) strategic conside…
Environmental Science (16 obras) · Climate change (14 obras) · Geography (13 obras) · Climatology (12 obras) · Meteorology (12 obras) · Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols (9 obras) · Atmospheric sciences (9 obras) · Greenhouse gas (9 obras) · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics (6 obras) · Air quality index (5 obras)