Nelson Alvis-Guzman

Dados Biográficos

ID1782320
NOMENelson Alvis-Guzman
PRENOMESNelson
SOBRENOMEAlvis-Guzman
ASSINATURAALVIS-GUZMAN N
AFILIAÇÕESUniversity of Cartagena
ORCID0000-0001-9458-864X
VERIFICADOSim
TOTAL DE OBRAS70
TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES0
TOTAL COMO AUTOR70
TOTAL COMO EDITOR0
PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO2005
ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO2024
ÍNDICE H0

  • Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050

    Open AccessStein Emil Vollset, Hazim S Ababneh et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet2024

    BACKGROUND: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternativ…

  • Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021

    Open AccessMichael Brauer, Gregory A Roth et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet2024

    BACKGROUND: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 ri…

  • Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100

    Open AccessNatalia V Bhattacharjee, Austin E Schumacher et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet2024

    BACKGROUND: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality,…

  • Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021

    Open AccessMohsen Naghavi, Kanyin Liane Ong et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet2024

    BACKGROUND: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mort…

  • Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (Dalys), and healthy life expectancy (Hale) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territor…

    Open AccessAlize J Ferrari, Damian Francesco Santomauro et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet2024

    BACKGROUND: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to im…

  • Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021

    Open AccessJaimie D Steinmetz, Katrin Seeher et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet Neurology2024

    BACKGROUND: Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by…

  • Biotechnological sovereignty is not a mere nationalist concept, it is a necessity for Colombia and Latin America

    Open AccessCamilo Guzman, Salim Mattar et al.ARTICLECadernos de Saude Publica2024Referências: 11

    During the pandemic, Latin American countries suffered the collapse of their health systems. This was caused by the high demand for care of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, which was added to the care of patients with other diseases. The significant increase in demand for health services caused medical and laboratory supplies to decline rapidly. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated a health crisis in several developing countries, mainly caused by …

  • Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050

    Open AccessKanyin Liane Ong, Lauryn K Stafford et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet2023

    BACKGROUND: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes…

  • Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year

    Open AccessDana Bryazka, Marissa B Reitsma et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet2022

    BACKGROUND: The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. METHODS: For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to esti…

  • Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019

    Open AccessGlobal Burden of Disease Cancer Collaboration, Jonathan Kocarnik et al.ARTICLEJAMA Oncology2022

    IMPORTANCE: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. OBJECTIVE: To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. EVIDENCE REVIEW: The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used t…

  • Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health

    Open AccessKatherine R Paulson, Katherine Paulson et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet2021

    BACKGROUND: Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, a…

  • Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019

    Open AccessMarissa B Reitsma, Parkes J Kendrick et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet2021

    BACKGROUND: Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally. METHODS: We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global B…

  • Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990–2019

    Open AccessValery L Feigin, Benjamin A Stark et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet Neurology2021

    BACKGROUND: Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national leve…

  • Iron status in late pregnancy is inversely associated with birth weight in Colombia

    Open AccessAlejandra Puerto, Annabelle Trojan et al.ARTICLEPublic Health Nutrition2021

    Objective: Gestational anaemia (GA) is common in developing countries. This study assessed the relationship of late GA and negative perinatal outcomes in participants recruited in a reference maternity unit of the Caribbean region of Colombia. Design: Prospective analytical birth cohort study. Maternal Hb and serum ferritin (SF) levels were measured. GA was defined as Hb levels Setting: Mothers in the first stage of labour, living in urban or rur…

  • Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (Hale), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019

    Open AccessHaidong Wang, Kaja Abbas et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet2020

    BACKGROUND: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected sub…

  • Prevalence and attributable health burden of chronic respiratory diseases, 1990–2017

    Open AccessJoan B Soriano, Parkes J Kendrick et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet Respiratory Medicine2020

    BACKGROUND: Previous attempts to characterise the burden of chronic respiratory diseases have focused only on specific disease conditions, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma. In this study, we aimed to characterise the burden of chronic respiratory diseases globally, providing a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis on geographical and time trends from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease…

  • Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

    Open AccessChristopher J L Murray, Cristiana Abbafati et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet2020

  • Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990–2017

    Open AccessBoris Bikbov, Caroline Purcell et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet2020

    BACKGROUND: Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use…

  • Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019

    Open AccessR Lozano, Nancy Fullman et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet2020

    BACKGROUND: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system le…

  • Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019

    Open AccessTheo Vos, Stephen S Lim et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet2020

    BACKGROUND: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive…

  • Effectiveness of a prevention program in the incidence of cardiovascular outcomes in a low-income population from Colombia

    Open AccessPablo Andrés Miranda Machado, Fernando Salcedo‐Mejía et al.ARTICLEBMC Public Health2020

    The DTC program is effective in the reduction of the risk of CVOs. Population-based interventions may be an important strategy for the prevention of CVOs in underserved populations in the context of LMICs. A more exhaustive emphasis on the control of diabetes mellitus should be considered in these strategies

  • Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016

    Open AccessValery L Feigin, Emma Nichols et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet Neurology2019

    BACKGROUND: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders. METHODS: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs;…

  • Past, present, and future of global health financing

    Open AccessAlenda Y Chang, Angela Y Chang et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet2019

    BACKGROUND: Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from developme…

  • Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017

    Open AccessChristina Fitzmaurice, Global Burden of Disease Cancer Collaboration et al.ARTICLEJAMA Oncology2019

    Importance Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting hav…

  • Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories

    Open AccessTahvi D Frank, Tahvi Frank et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet HIV2019

    BACKGROUND: Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. METHODS: We determined a modelling strategy for ea…