Patrick Keys
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 2115676 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Patrick Keys |
| PRENOMES | Patrick |
| SOBRENOME | Keys |
| ASSINATURA | KEYS P |
| AFILIAÇÕES | Colorado State University |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-7250-1563 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 17 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 41 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 17 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2016 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 3 |
Exposure to compound climate hazards transmitted via global agricultural trade networks
Compound climate hazards, such as co-occurring temperature and precipitation extremes, substantially impact people and ecosystems. Internal climate variability combines with the forced global warming response to determine both the magnitude and spatial distribution of these events, and their consequences can propagate from one country to another via many pathways. We examine how exposure to compound climate hazards in one country is transmitted i…
Climate storylines of annual heatwave patterns in a 3 °C warmer continental USA
In the US, extreme heat causes the largest weather-related deaths, and their frequency is projected to increase under global warming. We apply a storyline approach to identify coherent narratives of the spatial patterns of heatwave days in the contiguous United States (CONUS) in a 3 °C warmer climate. We use daily temperature data from the seamless system for prediction and earth system research large-ensemble climate model under the shared socio…
Rural migration under climate and land systems change
Malin Falkenmark
Exploring linkages between protected-area access and Kenyan pastoralist food security using a new agent-based model
Pastoral communities living in the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya raise livestock herds within highly patchy environments, and experience chronic food insecurity and inter-ethnic conflicts linked to resource access. For these primarily rural communities, livestock are a source of calories and income and are therefore crucial to achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) associated with food security (SDG 2). Achieving s…
The living infinite
We find ourselves at a critical crossroads for the future governance of the high seas, but the perceived remoteness of the global ocean creates a psychological barrier for people to engage with it. Given challenges of overexploitation, inequitable access and other sustainability and equity concerns, current ocean governance mechanisms are not fit-for-purpose. This decade offers opportunities for direct impact on ocean governance, however, trigger…
Strategic logic of unilateral climate intervention
Climate change and unabated greenhouse gas emissions are increasing the possibility that the world will turn to climate intervention to curb ever-increasing global temperatures. This paper uses game theory to elucidate the conditions that might make a state more or less likely to begin unilateral, as opposed to internationally coordinated, climate intervention (UCI). We solve this game for several specific scientific, economic, and climatological…
The plot must thicken
Climate change scenarios are typically based on trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions out into the future. These emissions are then incorporated into climate and earth system models to simulate pathways of global climate change. These pathways are often communicated as the average of numerous model simulations. Though essential for calculating the role of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system, this approach inadvertently masks the fac…
"Creating a climate changed future with the sea level rise interactive-fiction game "Lagos2199
Story-based futures serve an important role in climate change scenario development. Stories are particularly useful in exploring sea level rise possibilities, since we know many coastal areas are specifically vulnerable to accelerating rises in sea level. This discrete change in coastline is different from most other climate change impacts, and offers a clear basis for scientifically informed, future scenarios. We demonstrated this with a creativ…
A call for agile futures practice in service of transformative change
Amid growing urgency behind the need to curb global greenhouse gas emissions, the COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the world into another crisis. Prominent conceptualizations of transformation suggest that crises like the pandemic may create windows of opportunity for transformative change, such as the scope and scale of systemic change required to address the climate crisis. Additionally, envisioning positive futures plays an important role in build…
Exploring the future of fishery conflict through narrative scenarios
Recent studies suggest that the pervasive impacts on global fishery resources caused by stressors such as overfishing and climate change could dramatically increase the likelihood of fishery conflict. However, existing projections do not consider wider economic, social, or political trends when assessing the likelihood of, and influences on, future conflict trajectories. In this paper, we build four future fishery conflict scenarios by considerin…
A machine-learning approach to human footprint index estimation with applications to sustainable development
The human footprint index (HFI) is an extensively used tool for interpreting the accelerating pressure of humanity on Earth. Up to now, the process of creating the HFI has required significant data and modeling, and updated versions of the index often lag the present day by many years. Here we introduce a near-present, global-scale machine learning-based HFI (ml-HFI) which is capable of routine update using satellite imagery alone. We present the…
The Water Planetary Boundary
Anthropocene risk
Radical ocean futures-scenario development using science fiction prototyping
Scenarios can help individuals, communities, corporations and nations to develop a capacity for dealing with the unknown and unpredictable, or the unlikely but possible. A range of scientific methods for developing scenarios is available, but we argue that they have limited capacity to investigate complex social-ecological futures because: 1) non-linear change is rarely incorporated and: 2) they rarely involve co-evolutionary dynamics of integrat…
Approaching moisture recycling governance
The spatial and temporal dynamics of water resources are a continuous challenge for effective and sustainable national and international governance. The watershed is the most common spatial unit in water resources governance, which typically includes only surface and groundwater. However, recent advances in hydrology have revealed ‘atmospheric watersheds’ – otherwise known as precipitationsheds. Water flowing within a precipitationshed may be mod…
Conditional Relationships Between Drought and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
Much of the literature on climate change adaptation claims the destabilizing consequences of environmental crises are mitigated by sociopolitical conditions that influence a state's susceptibility to scarcity-induced violence. However, few cross-national studies provide evidence of conditional scarcity-conflict relationships. This analysis of drought severity and civil conflict onset in sub-Saharan Africa (1962–2006) uncovers three sociopolitical…
Radical ocean futures-scenario development using science fiction prototyping
Scenarios can help individuals, communities, corporations and nations to develop a capacity for dealing with the unknown and unpredictable, or the unlikely but possible. A range of scientific methods for developing scenarios is available, but we argue that they have limited capacity to investigate complex social-ecological futures because: 1) non-linear change is rarely incorporated and: 2) they rarely involve co-evolutionary dynamics of integrat…
Anthropocene risk
Approaching moisture recycling governance
The spatial and temporal dynamics of water resources are a continuous challenge for effective and sustainable national and international governance. The watershed is the most common spatial unit in water resources governance, which typically includes only surface and groundwater. However, recent advances in hydrology have revealed ‘atmospheric watersheds’ – otherwise known as precipitationsheds. Water flowing within a precipitationshed may be mod…
Rural migration under climate and land systems change
A call for agile futures practice in service of transformative change
Amid growing urgency behind the need to curb global greenhouse gas emissions, the COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the world into another crisis. Prominent conceptualizations of transformation suggest that crises like the pandemic may create windows of opportunity for transformative change, such as the scope and scale of systemic change required to address the climate crisis. Additionally, envisioning positive futures plays an important role in build…
Conditional Relationships Between Drought and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
Much of the literature on climate change adaptation claims the destabilizing consequences of environmental crises are mitigated by sociopolitical conditions that influence a state's susceptibility to scarcity-induced violence. However, few cross-national studies provide evidence of conditional scarcity-conflict relationships. This analysis of drought severity and civil conflict onset in sub-Saharan Africa (1962–2006) uncovers three sociopolitical…
Approaching moisture recycling governance
The spatial and temporal dynamics of water resources are a continuous challenge for effective and sustainable national and international governance. The watershed is the most common spatial unit in water resources governance, which typically includes only surface and groundwater. However, recent advances in hydrology have revealed ‘atmospheric watersheds’ – otherwise known as precipitationsheds. Water flowing within a precipitationshed may be mod…
Radical ocean futures-scenario development using science fiction prototyping
Scenarios can help individuals, communities, corporations and nations to develop a capacity for dealing with the unknown and unpredictable, or the unlikely but possible. A range of scientific methods for developing scenarios is available, but we argue that they have limited capacity to investigate complex social-ecological futures because: 1) non-linear change is rarely incorporated and: 2) they rarely involve co-evolutionary dynamics of integrat…
Anthropocene risk
The Water Planetary Boundary
Exploring the future of fishery conflict through narrative scenarios
Recent studies suggest that the pervasive impacts on global fishery resources caused by stressors such as overfishing and climate change could dramatically increase the likelihood of fishery conflict. However, existing projections do not consider wider economic, social, or political trends when assessing the likelihood of, and influences on, future conflict trajectories. In this paper, we build four future fishery conflict scenarios by considerin…
A machine-learning approach to human footprint index estimation with applications to sustainable development
The human footprint index (HFI) is an extensively used tool for interpreting the accelerating pressure of humanity on Earth. Up to now, the process of creating the HFI has required significant data and modeling, and updated versions of the index often lag the present day by many years. Here we introduce a near-present, global-scale machine learning-based HFI (ml-HFI) which is capable of routine update using satellite imagery alone. We present the…
"Creating a climate changed future with the sea level rise interactive-fiction game "Lagos2199
Story-based futures serve an important role in climate change scenario development. Stories are particularly useful in exploring sea level rise possibilities, since we know many coastal areas are specifically vulnerable to accelerating rises in sea level. This discrete change in coastline is different from most other climate change impacts, and offers a clear basis for scientifically informed, future scenarios. We demonstrated this with a creativ…
A call for agile futures practice in service of transformative change
Amid growing urgency behind the need to curb global greenhouse gas emissions, the COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the world into another crisis. Prominent conceptualizations of transformation suggest that crises like the pandemic may create windows of opportunity for transformative change, such as the scope and scale of systemic change required to address the climate crisis. Additionally, envisioning positive futures plays an important role in build…
The living infinite
We find ourselves at a critical crossroads for the future governance of the high seas, but the perceived remoteness of the global ocean creates a psychological barrier for people to engage with it. Given challenges of overexploitation, inequitable access and other sustainability and equity concerns, current ocean governance mechanisms are not fit-for-purpose. This decade offers opportunities for direct impact on ocean governance, however, trigger…
Strategic logic of unilateral climate intervention
Climate change and unabated greenhouse gas emissions are increasing the possibility that the world will turn to climate intervention to curb ever-increasing global temperatures. This paper uses game theory to elucidate the conditions that might make a state more or less likely to begin unilateral, as opposed to internationally coordinated, climate intervention (UCI). We solve this game for several specific scientific, economic, and climatological…
The plot must thicken
Climate change scenarios are typically based on trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions out into the future. These emissions are then incorporated into climate and earth system models to simulate pathways of global climate change. These pathways are often communicated as the average of numerous model simulations. Though essential for calculating the role of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate system, this approach inadvertently masks the fac…
Rural migration under climate and land systems change
Malin Falkenmark
Exploring linkages between protected-area access and Kenyan pastoralist food security using a new agent-based model
Pastoral communities living in the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya raise livestock herds within highly patchy environments, and experience chronic food insecurity and inter-ethnic conflicts linked to resource access. For these primarily rural communities, livestock are a source of calories and income and are therefore crucial to achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) associated with food security (SDG 2). Achieving s…
Exposure to compound climate hazards transmitted via global agricultural trade networks
Compound climate hazards, such as co-occurring temperature and precipitation extremes, substantially impact people and ecosystems. Internal climate variability combines with the forced global warming response to determine both the magnitude and spatial distribution of these events, and their consequences can propagate from one country to another via many pathways. We examine how exposure to compound climate hazards in one country is transmitted i…
Climate storylines of annual heatwave patterns in a 3 °C warmer continental USA
In the US, extreme heat causes the largest weather-related deaths, and their frequency is projected to increase under global warming. We apply a storyline approach to identify coherent narratives of the spatial patterns of heatwave days in the contiguous United States (CONUS) in a 3 °C warmer climate. We use daily temperature data from the seamless system for prediction and earth system research large-ensemble climate model under the shared socio…
Economics (10 obras) · Environmental Science (9 obras) · Geography (9 obras) · Business (8 obras) · Climate change (7 obras) · Ecology (7 obras) · Environmental resource management (7 obras) · Political science (6 obras) · Futures contract (5 obras) · Biology (4 obras)