Frans Willekens
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 271139 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Frans Willekens |
| PRENOMES | Frans |
| SOBRENOME | Willekens |
| ASSINATURA | WILLEKENS F |
| AFILIAÇÕES | Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute |
| ORCID | 0000-0001-6125-0212 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 45 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 176 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 45 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1976 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 8 |
Reflections on Population Studies in the Age of AI
In his editorial, former editor of Comparative Population Studies (CPoS) Frans Willekens reflects on the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in population studies. Effective and responsible use of any tool requires a basic understanding of how it works, when it may be used, and when its use should be avoided. When this fundamental principle is observed, AI tools can enrich learning and research and help advance the frontiers of knowledge. Epistem…
Programmatic access to open statistical data for population studies
This publication contains supporting files for the publication "Programmatic access to open statistical data for population studies.The SDMX standard" in the Demographic Research journal (www.demographic-research.org). The files are: a. ProgrammaticAccessDR.Rmd: R Markdown document. The paper was prepared using R Markdown in RStudio. The Rmd document contains all the code used in the paper. R version 4.2.1 (2022) and version 4.3.1, (2023-06-16) o…
The Past, Present and Future of CPoS
In this editorial note, we reflect on the trajectory of Comparative Population Studies (CPoS) over the last decades, highlight major milestones along the road, and sketch our hopes and ideas for its future development. In 1975, the predecessor journal of CPoS named ZfB was established as the scientific journal of the newly founded German Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB). As the Institute grew its international collaborations and th…
Thomas B. Burch
Spatial demography
With increases in the availability of geo‐referenced data, there has been a push for developing better methods to study demographic processes across space. This paper reviews the recent developments in “spatial demography” and argues that an important aspect has been neglected, namely, the focus on the dynamics and interactions of population change across space, which is an area that should be central to the field. Frameworks for analysing spatia…
Interdisciplinary Research on Healthy Aging
This is an introduction to a Special Collection of Demographic Research on Interdisciplinary Research on Healthy Aging. The collection is an outcome of an international conference in China on biodemography and multistate modeling in healthy aging research
Emigration Rates From Sample Surveys
What is the emigration rate of a country, and how reliable is that figure? Answering these questions is not at all straightforward. Most data on international migration are census data on foreign-born population. These migrant stock data describe the immigrant population in destination countries but offer limited information on the rate at which people leave their country of origin. The emigration rate depends on the number leaving in a given per…
Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules
We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists are determined by calibration. Age- and per…
Modelling and simulating decision processes of linked lives
Individuals' decision processes play a central role in understanding modern migration phenomena and other demographic processes. Their integration into agent-based computational demography depends largely on suitable support by a modelling language. We are developing the Modelling Language for Linked Lives (ML3) to describe the diverse decision processes of linked lives succinctly in continuous time. The context of individuals is modelled by netw…
The science of choice
In October 2015, around 30 scholars convened at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock to discuss: (a) how individuals and families make decisions about marriage, chil
Visualizing compositional data on the Lexis surface
The Lexis surface plot is an established visualization tool in demography. Its present utility, however, is limited to the domain of one-dimensional magnitudes such as rates and counts. Visualizing proportions among three or more groups on a period-age g
International migration under the microscope
Fragmented research and limited data must be addressed
Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration
We review agent-based models (ABM) of human migration with respect to their decision-making rules. The most prominent behavioural theories used as decision rules are the random utility theory, as implemented in the discrete choice model, and the theory of planned behaviour. We identify the critical choices that must be made in developing an ABM, namely the modelling of decision processes and social networks. We also discuss two challenges that ha…
Data Bases and Statistical Systems
Families and Households, Formal Demography of
Software for multistate analysis
The growing interest in pathways, the increased availability of life-history data, innovations in statistical and demographic techniques, and advances in software technology have stimulated the development of software packages for multistate modeling of
Daniel Courgeau
Chronological objects in demographic research
Calendar time, age and duration are chronological objects. They represent an instant or a time period. Age and duration are usually expressed in units with varying lengths. The number of days in a month or a year depends on the position on the calendar. Th
A probabilistic framework for harmonisation of migration statistics
Inadequate and inconsistent data are a common and persistent problem in the field of migration. Deficiencies in migration statistics may be tackled using modelling techniques, which has recently been recognised by the European Union (EU) policymakers. The new Regulation on Community statistics on international migration, which obliges countries to supply harmonised statistics, provides for the possibility of using estimation methods to adapt stat…
Association Between Age at Menarche and Early-Life Nutritional Status in Rural Bangladesh
Age at menarche is associated with anthropometry in adolescence. Recently, there has been growing support for the hypothesis that timing of menarche may be set early in life but modified by changes in body size and composition in childhood. To evaluate this, a cohort of 255 girls aged p p
Disentangling women's responses on complex dietary intake patterns from an Indian cross-sectional survey
Objective To investigate the degree of individual heterogeneity related to complex dietary behaviour and to further examine the associations of different dietary compositions with selected characteristics. Design Latent class analysis was applied to data from the recent cross-sectional National Family Health Survey that collected information on the intake frequency of selected foods. Different responses regarding intake frequency were condensed i…
Obesity in Adulthood and Its Consequences for Life Expectancy
BACKGROUND: Overweight and obesity in adulthood are linked to an increased risk for death and disease. Their potential effect on life expectancy and premature death has not yet been described. OBJECTIVE: To analyze reductions in life expectancy and increases in premature death associated with overweight and obesity at 40 years of age. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: The Framingham Heart Study with follow-up from 1948 to 1990. PARTICIPA…
Describing migration spatial structure
Describing migration spatial structure
Capturing the Age and Spatial Structures of Migration
In this paper we model the structures found in the level (generation) and allocation (distribution) components of age-specific and origin - destination-specific migration flows. For the examples, we examine the regional migration patterns in the USA for four periods: 1955 - 60, 1965 - 70, 1975 - 80, and 1985 - 90. The age and migration structures are identified over time by using the logit model for categorical data. Just as model schedules can b…
Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration
We review agent-based models (ABM) of human migration with respect to their decision-making rules. The most prominent behavioural theories used as decision rules are the random utility theory, as implemented in the discrete choice model, and the theory of planned behaviour. We identify the critical choices that must be made in developing an ABM, namely the modelling of decision processes and social networks. We also discuss two challenges that ha…
Describing migration spatial structure
Log-linear modelling of spatial interaction
Multi-state analysis of marital status life tables
A multi-state life table, also known as a multi-dimensional or an increment-decrement life-table, is a generalization of the conventional life table. Members of a birth cohort are followed as they age, and move between various states of life. In this paper, the mathematical theory of multi-state life table construction is reviewed. It is shown that the mathematics becomes simple if the matrix approach, initiated by Rogers for the design of multi-…
Monitoring international migration flows in Europe
Multistate Analysis
The demographer's approach to the study of the labor force includes the calculation of life tables for the active population. Although this tool is extensively used and many countries publish working-life tables, and although they rely on very restrictive assumptions, the technique for constructing such tables has not improved since its development about thirty years ago. This paper reviews the conventional method for the construction of working-…
Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules
We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists are determined by calibration. Age- and per…
Migration and Settlement
In 1976, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis initiated a study of migration and population distribution patterns in its seventeen member nations. In each country, the analysis was carried out by national scholars using techniques of multiregional demography. In this paper the authors describe the organization of the study, discuss the data bases used, evaluate the main results obtained, and review some of the methodological r…
Spatial demography
With increases in the availability of geo‐referenced data, there has been a push for developing better methods to study demographic processes across space. This paper reviews the recent developments in “spatial demography” and argues that an important aspect has been neglected, namely, the focus on the dynamics and interactions of population change across space, which is an area that should be central to the field. Frameworks for analysing spatia…
Specification and Calibration of Spatial Interaction Modei a Contingency‐table Perspective and an Application to Intra‐urban Migration in Rotterdam
Visualizing compositional data on the Lexis surface
The Lexis surface plot is an established visualization tool in demography. Its present utility, however, is limited to the domain of one-dimensional magnitudes such as rates and counts. Visualizing proportions among three or more groups on a period-age g
Capturing the Age and Spatial Structures of Migration
In this paper we model the structures found in the level (generation) and allocation (distribution) components of age-specific and origin - destination-specific migration flows. For the examples, we examine the regional migration patterns in the USA for four periods: 1955 - 60, 1965 - 70, 1975 - 80, and 1985 - 90. The age and migration structures are identified over time by using the logit model for categorical data. Just as model schedules can b…
Log‐linear Modelling of Spatial Interaction
Sensitivity Analysis in Multiregional Demographic Models
The theory of multiregional mathematical demography investigates how fertility, mortality, and migration combine to shape the growth of multiregional population systems. Population dynamics have been studied for cases where the structural parameters, namely the age-specific rates of fertility, mortality, and migration, are fixed. This paper addresses the question of how the system behaves under changing structural parameters. By applying the tech…
Migration and Settlement
Spatial Population Dynamics
Modelling and simulating decision processes of linked lives
Individuals' decision processes play a central role in understanding modern migration phenomena and other demographic processes. Their integration into agent-based computational demography depends largely on suitable support by a modelling language. We are developing the Modelling Language for Linked Lives (ML3) to describe the diverse decision processes of linked lives succinctly in continuous time. The context of individuals is modelled by netw…
Emigration Rates From Sample Surveys
What is the emigration rate of a country, and how reliable is that figure? Answering these questions is not at all straightforward. Most data on international migration are census data on foreign-born population. These migrant stock data describe the immigrant population in destination countries but offer limited information on the rate at which people leave their country of origin. The emigration rate depends on the number leaving in a given per…
Software for multistate analysis
The growing interest in pathways, the increased availability of life-history data, innovations in statistical and demographic techniques, and advances in software technology have stimulated the development of software packages for multistate modeling of
A probabilistic framework for harmonisation of migration statistics
Inadequate and inconsistent data are a common and persistent problem in the field of migration. Deficiencies in migration statistics may be tackled using modelling techniques, which has recently been recognised by the European Union (EU) policymakers. The new Regulation on Community statistics on international migration, which obliges countries to supply harmonised statistics, provides for the possibility of using estimation methods to adapt stat…
Population of Russia
Chronological objects in demographic research
Calendar time, age and duration are chronological objects. They represent an instant or a time period. Age and duration are usually expressed in units with varying lengths. The number of days in a month or a year depends on the position on the calendar. Th
The science of choice
In October 2015, around 30 scholars convened at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock to discuss: (a) how individuals and families make decisions about marriage, chil
Describing migration spatial structure
Ánalisis multidimensional de población con datos incompletos
En la demografía multidimensional se estudian simultáneamente diversas dimensiones de un sistema demográfico. En la multirregional, las dimensiones son la edad y la región de residencia. Los sistemas demográficos también se podrían definir a lo largo de las dimensiones de edad y status marital, edad y status ocupacional, etc. Para cada dimensión se pueden distinguir varios estados o categorías demográficas. También se puede considerar que los est…
Spatial Population Dynamics
Spatial population dynamics
Sensitivity Analysis in Multiregional Demographic Models
The theory of multiregional mathematical demography investigates how fertility, mortality, and migration combine to shape the growth of multiregional population systems. Population dynamics have been studied for cases where the structural parameters, namely the age-specific rates of fertility, mortality, and migration, are fixed. This paper addresses the question of how the system behaves under changing structural parameters. By applying the tech…
The Spatial Reproductive Value and the Spatial Momentum of Zero Population Growth
This paper develops the concept of spatial reproductive value and illustrates how such a notion may be used to trace out quantitatively the geographical impacts of a sudden reduction in fertility to bare replacement level. Such a reduction does not immediately produce zero population growth in populations that previously experienced high birthrates. The built-in momentum for continued growth and its spatial dimension may be assessed with the aid …
A Dynamic Linear-Programming Approach to the Planning of National Settlement Systems
In this paper the problem of planning human-settlement systems (HSS) is formulated in a dynamic linear-programming (DLP) framework. Such large time-dependent problems are treated both by optimal-control and linear-programming techniques. A multiregional population-growth model forms the state equation of the DLP problem. Budget, resource, and quality-of-life constraints are considered. The paper describes the formalization of the HSS planning pro…
Normative Modeling in Demo-Economics
Multistate Analysis
The demographer's approach to the study of the labor force includes the calculation of life tables for the active population. Although this tool is extensively used and many countries publish working-life tables, and although they rely on very restrictive assumptions, the technique for constructing such tables has not improved since its development about thirty years ago. This paper reviews the conventional method for the construction of working-…
Ánalisis multidimensional de población con datos incompletos
En la demografía multidimensional se estudian simultáneamente diversas dimensiones de un sistema demográfico. En la multirregional, las dimensiones son la edad y la región de residencia. Los sistemas demográficos también se podrían definir a lo largo de las dimensiones de edad y status marital, edad y status ocupacional, etc. Para cada dimensión se pueden distinguir varios estados o categorías demográficas. También se puede considerar que los est…
Multi-state analysis of marital status life tables
A multi-state life table, also known as a multi-dimensional or an increment-decrement life-table, is a generalization of the conventional life table. Members of a birth cohort are followed as they age, and move between various states of life. In this paper, the mathematical theory of multi-state life table construction is reviewed. It is shown that the mathematics becomes simple if the matrix approach, initiated by Rogers for the design of multi-…
Log‐linear Modelling of Spatial Interaction
Log-linear modelling of spatial interaction
Specification and Calibration of Spatial Interaction Modei a Contingency‐table Perspective and an Application to Intra‐urban Migration in Rotterdam
Migration and Settlement
In 1976, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis initiated a study of migration and population distribution patterns in its seventeen member nations. In each country, the analysis was carried out by national scholars using techniques of multiregional demography. In this paper the authors describe the organization of the study, discuss the data bases used, evaluate the main results obtained, and review some of the methodological r…
Demographic Research and Spatial Policy
This book consists of a series of papers in which various authors examine demographic research and spatial policy with a focus on the experience of the Netherlands. The book is in five parts. The first part includes two papers in which the basic issues concerning demographic research into Dutch policy on spatial distribution and migration are outlined. The second part contains three papers describing the sources of data. The third part consists o…
Migration and Settlement
Migration and Settlement
organized teams of researchers in all of the countries in which IIASA had National Member Organizations, East and West, who left a permanent imprint in the form of methods now incorporated in routine national calculations.Since most of what was accomplished in the course of the Migration and Settlement Study was methodological and descriptive in character, it was natural that future IIASA work in this general area would more intimately involve su…
Migration and Settlement
organized teams of researchers in all of the countries in which IIASA had National Member Organizations, East and West, who left a permanent imprint in the form of methods now incorporated in routine national calculations.Since most of what was accomplished in the course of the Migration and Settlement Study was methodological and descriptive in character, it was natural that future IIASA work in this general area would more intimately involve su…
Monitoring international migration flows in Europe
Mortality in the Netherland
Population of Russia
Describing migration spatial structure
Describing migration spatial structure
Capturing the Age and Spatial Structures of Migration
In this paper we model the structures found in the level (generation) and allocation (distribution) components of age-specific and origin - destination-specific migration flows. For the examples, we examine the regional migration patterns in the USA for four periods: 1955 - 60, 1965 - 70, 1975 - 80, and 1985 - 90. The age and migration structures are identified over time by using the logit model for categorical data. Just as model schedules can b…
Obesity in Adulthood and Its Consequences for Life Expectancy
BACKGROUND: Overweight and obesity in adulthood are linked to an increased risk for death and disease. Their potential effect on life expectancy and premature death has not yet been described. OBJECTIVE: To analyze reductions in life expectancy and increases in premature death associated with overweight and obesity at 40 years of age. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: The Framingham Heart Study with follow-up from 1948 to 1990. PARTICIPA…
Disentangling women's responses on complex dietary intake patterns from an Indian cross-sectional survey
Objective To investigate the degree of individual heterogeneity related to complex dietary behaviour and to further examine the associations of different dietary compositions with selected characteristics. Design Latent class analysis was applied to data from the recent cross-sectional National Family Health Survey that collected information on the intake frequency of selected foods. Different responses regarding intake frequency were condensed i…
Geography (24 obras) · Sociology (23 obras) · Computer Science (20 obras) · Demography (20 obras) · Mathematics (19 obras) · Population (18 obras) · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management (14 obras) · Economics (13 obras) · demographic modeling and climate adaptation (12 obras) · Econometrics (11 obras)