Nico Keilman
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 274154 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Nico Keilman |
| PRENOMES | Nico |
| SOBRENOME | Keilman |
| ASSINATURA | KEILMAN N |
| AFILIAÇÕES | University of Oslo |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-0163-3283 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 27 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 138 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 27 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1985 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2023 |
| ÍNDICE H | 6 |
Sex-differences in life expectancy at birth
Official mortality statistics provide ample evidence that women live longer than men. In many European countries, the sex difference in life expectancy began to increase near the end of the nineteenth century, peaking between the 1960s and the 1980s, before declining again. In Norway, there was another earlier peak before the sex gap started to converge to that in other European countries. This study investigated changes in sex differences in lif…
Can We Rely on Projections of the Immigrant Population? The Case of Norway
Demographic forecasters must be realistic about how well they can predict future populations, and it is important that they include estimates of uncertainty in their forecasts. Here we focus on the future development of the immigrant population of Norway and their Norwegian-born children (“second generation”), grouped by three categories of country background: 1. West European countries plus the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand; …
Modelling education and climate change
Evaluating Probabilistic Population Forecasts
Keilman Nico. Évaluer les prévisions probabilistes de population / Evaluating Probabilistic Population Forecasts. In: Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, n°520-521, 2020. pp. 51-68
Do Japanese and Italian Women Live Longer than Women in Scandinavia
Mortality shifts and mortality compression in period and cohort life tables
When age-specific mortality falls, period life tables give a distorted view of the life expectancy (LE) and the degree of mortality compression in birth cohorts
A combined Brass-random walk approach to probabilistic household forecasting
Probabilistic household forecasts based on register data- the case of Denmark and Finland
Household forecasts are important for public planning and for predicting consumer demand
An editorial on plagiarism
Norwegian Elderly Less Likely to Live Alone in the Future
European Demographic Forecasts Have Not Become More Accurate Over the Past 25 Years
Nowadays, demographers, population statisticians, and population forecasters have richer data, more refined theories of demographic behavior, and more sophisticated methods of analysis than they had two or three decades ago. This scientific progress should have made it easier to predict demographic behavior. But analyses of the errors in older forecasts show that demographic forecasts published by statistical agencies in 14 European countries hav…
Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries
The aim of the 'Uncertain Population of Europe'(UPE) project was to compute long-term stochastic (probabilistic) population forecasts for 18 European countries. We developed a general methodology for constructing predictive distributions for fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions underlying stochastic population forecasts can be assessed by analysing errors in past forecasts or model-based estimates of forecast errors, or by expert j…
Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway
Deterministic population forecasts do not give an appropriate indication of forecast uncertainty. Forecasts should be probabilistic, so that their expected accuracy can be assessed. We review three main methods to compute probabilistic forecasts, namely time series extrapolation, analysis of historical forecast errors, and expert judgement. We illustrate, by the case of Norway up to 2050, how elements of these three methods can be combined when c…
Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95
Between 1951 and 1998, the United Nations (UN) published 16 sets of population projections for the world, its major regions, and countries. This paper reports the accuracy of the projection results. I analyse the quality of the historical data used for the base populations of the projections, and for extrapolating fertility and mortality. I study also the impact this quality has had on the accuracy of the projection results. Results and assumptio…
Andrew Hinde, Demographic Methods
Predictive Intervals for Age-Specific Fertility
On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility
How Accurate Are the United Nations World Population Projections
This paper investigates the accuracy of the UN world population forecasts of the age structure and crude birth and death rates in seven major regions of the world. Focus is on comparative accuracy across regions and over time utilizing data from 12 UN forecasts for Africa Asia Europe the former Soviet Union Latin America northern America and Oceania prepared between 1950 and 1985. Overall it is noted that the strength of these projections is that…
Adjustments of public pension schemes in twelve industrialized countries
Cohort Quantum as a Function of Time-dependent Period Quantum for Non-repeatable Events
The paper discusses translation formulae for time-dependent cohort and period quantum for non-repeatable events. Cohort quantum expressions are investigated for two cases: one in which period quantum, and another in which the sum of the period rates decreases linearly with time. In both cases the assumption is that period tempo does not change. Sufficient conditions are given for the situation in which the cohort quantum simply equals the period …
Translation Formulae for Non-repeatable Events
Ryder's translation expressions for repeatable events are extended to the case of non-repeatable events. It is found that cohort quantum is a constant function of time when period quantum is constant, and period tempo, as measured by the moments of the age pattern of the occurrence-exposure rates, change linearly with time. The degree of distributional distortion (that is, the upward or downward shift in cohort caused by changes in the period age…
Estimation d'un quotient à l'aide de données agrégées
Courgeau Daniel, Keilman Nico, Lelièvre Éva. Estimation d'un quotient à l'aide de données agrégées. In: Population, 49e année, n°1, 1994. pp. 229-232
Lipro 2.0
This publication describes a multidimensional household projection model called LIPRO 2.0. The LIPRO computer program which is included in diskette form with the publication is written in Borlands Turbo Pascal 5.0 and can be run on personal computers or compatibles using MS/DOS. The program requires a mathematical coprocessor a hard disk and a memory of 640 kb. About half of the book is devoted to the methodological and computational aspects of t…
Static versus dynamic analysis of the interaction between female labour-force participation and fertility
Recent trends in family and household composition in europe
On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility
Recent trends in family and household composition in europe
Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway
Deterministic population forecasts do not give an appropriate indication of forecast uncertainty. Forecasts should be probabilistic, so that their expected accuracy can be assessed. We review three main methods to compute probabilistic forecasts, namely time series extrapolation, analysis of historical forecast errors, and expert judgement. We illustrate, by the case of Norway up to 2050, how elements of these three methods can be combined when c…
Probabilistic household forecasts based on register data- the case of Denmark and Finland
Household forecasts are important for public planning and for predicting consumer demand
Norwegian Elderly Less Likely to Live Alone in the Future
Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries
The aim of the 'Uncertain Population of Europe'(UPE) project was to compute long-term stochastic (probabilistic) population forecasts for 18 European countries. We developed a general methodology for constructing predictive distributions for fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions underlying stochastic population forecasts can be assessed by analysing errors in past forecasts or model-based estimates of forecast errors, or by expert j…
Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95
Between 1951 and 1998, the United Nations (UN) published 16 sets of population projections for the world, its major regions, and countries. This paper reports the accuracy of the projection results. I analyse the quality of the historical data used for the base populations of the projections, and for extrapolating fertility and mortality. I study also the impact this quality has had on the accuracy of the projection results. Results and assumptio…
How Accurate Are the United Nations World Population Projections
This paper investigates the accuracy of the UN world population forecasts of the age structure and crude birth and death rates in seven major regions of the world. Focus is on comparative accuracy across regions and over time utilizing data from 12 UN forecasts for Africa Asia Europe the former Soviet Union Latin America northern America and Oceania prepared between 1950 and 1985. Overall it is noted that the strength of these projections is that…
Translation Formulae for Non-repeatable Events
Ryder's translation expressions for repeatable events are extended to the case of non-repeatable events. It is found that cohort quantum is a constant function of time when period quantum is constant, and period tempo, as measured by the moments of the age pattern of the occurrence-exposure rates, change linearly with time. The degree of distributional distortion (that is, the upward or downward shift in cohort caused by changes in the period age…
Nuptiality models and the two-sex problem in national population forecasts
European Demographic Forecasts Have Not Become More Accurate Over the Past 25 Years
Nowadays, demographers, population statisticians, and population forecasters have richer data, more refined theories of demographic behavior, and more sophisticated methods of analysis than they had two or three decades ago. This scientific progress should have made it easier to predict demographic behavior. But analyses of the errors in older forecasts show that demographic forecasts published by statistical agencies in 14 European countries hav…
Predictive Intervals for Age-Specific Fertility
Static versus dynamic analysis of the interaction between female labour-force participation and fertility
Cohort Quantum as a Function of Time-dependent Period Quantum for Non-repeatable Events
The paper discusses translation formulae for time-dependent cohort and period quantum for non-repeatable events. Cohort quantum expressions are investigated for two cases: one in which period quantum, and another in which the sum of the period rates decreases linearly with time. In both cases the assumption is that period tempo does not change. Sufficient conditions are given for the situation in which the cohort quantum simply equals the period …
Evaluating Probabilistic Population Forecasts
Keilman Nico. Évaluer les prévisions probabilistes de population / Evaluating Probabilistic Population Forecasts. In: Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, n°520-521, 2020. pp. 51-68
Lipro 2.0
This publication describes a multidimensional household projection model called LIPRO 2.0. The LIPRO computer program which is included in diskette form with the publication is written in Borlands Turbo Pascal 5.0 and can be run on personal computers or compatibles using MS/DOS. The program requires a mathematical coprocessor a hard disk and a memory of 640 kb. About half of the book is devoted to the methodological and computational aspects of t…
Nuptiality models and the two-sex problem in national population forecasts
Internal and External Consistency in Multidimensional Population Projection Models
In this paper the impact of consistency requirements upon the formulation of multidimensional population projection models is dealt with. The problem of internal consistency arises when certain output variables of the model have to be consistent with one another, as in models containing marital status (two-sex problem). External consistency problems arise when certain output variables have to satisfy externally specified restrictions. For instanc…
Static versus dynamic analysis of the interaction between female labour-force participation and fertility
Recent trends in family and household composition in europe
Lipro 2.0
This publication describes a multidimensional household projection model called LIPRO 2.0. The LIPRO computer program which is included in diskette form with the publication is written in Borlands Turbo Pascal 5.0 and can be run on personal computers or compatibles using MS/DOS. The program requires a mathematical coprocessor a hard disk and a memory of 640 kb. About half of the book is devoted to the methodological and computational aspects of t…
Translation Formulae for Non-repeatable Events
Ryder's translation expressions for repeatable events are extended to the case of non-repeatable events. It is found that cohort quantum is a constant function of time when period quantum is constant, and period tempo, as measured by the moments of the age pattern of the occurrence-exposure rates, change linearly with time. The degree of distributional distortion (that is, the upward or downward shift in cohort caused by changes in the period age…
Estimation d'un quotient à l'aide de données agrégées
Courgeau Daniel, Keilman Nico, Lelièvre Éva. Estimation d'un quotient à l'aide de données agrégées. In: Population, 49e année, n°1, 1994. pp. 229-232
Adjustments of public pension schemes in twelve industrialized countries
Cohort Quantum as a Function of Time-dependent Period Quantum for Non-repeatable Events
The paper discusses translation formulae for time-dependent cohort and period quantum for non-repeatable events. Cohort quantum expressions are investigated for two cases: one in which period quantum, and another in which the sum of the period rates decreases linearly with time. In both cases the assumption is that period tempo does not change. Sufficient conditions are given for the situation in which the cohort quantum simply equals the period …
How Accurate Are the United Nations World Population Projections
This paper investigates the accuracy of the UN world population forecasts of the age structure and crude birth and death rates in seven major regions of the world. Focus is on comparative accuracy across regions and over time utilizing data from 12 UN forecasts for Africa Asia Europe the former Soviet Union Latin America northern America and Oceania prepared between 1950 and 1985. Overall it is noted that the strength of these projections is that…
Andrew Hinde, Demographic Methods
Predictive Intervals for Age-Specific Fertility
On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility
Data quality and accuracy of United Nations population projections, 1950-95
Between 1951 and 1998, the United Nations (UN) published 16 sets of population projections for the world, its major regions, and countries. This paper reports the accuracy of the projection results. I analyse the quality of the historical data used for the base populations of the projections, and for extrapolating fertility and mortality. I study also the impact this quality has had on the accuracy of the projection results. Results and assumptio…
Why population forecasts should be probabilistic - illustrated by the case of Norway
Deterministic population forecasts do not give an appropriate indication of forecast uncertainty. Forecasts should be probabilistic, so that their expected accuracy can be assessed. We review three main methods to compute probabilistic forecasts, namely time series extrapolation, analysis of historical forecast errors, and expert judgement. We illustrate, by the case of Norway up to 2050, how elements of these three methods can be combined when c…
Assumptions for long-term stochastic population forecasts in 18 European countries
The aim of the 'Uncertain Population of Europe'(UPE) project was to compute long-term stochastic (probabilistic) population forecasts for 18 European countries. We developed a general methodology for constructing predictive distributions for fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions underlying stochastic population forecasts can be assessed by analysing errors in past forecasts or model-based estimates of forecast errors, or by expert j…
European Demographic Forecasts Have Not Become More Accurate Over the Past 25 Years
Nowadays, demographers, population statisticians, and population forecasters have richer data, more refined theories of demographic behavior, and more sophisticated methods of analysis than they had two or three decades ago. This scientific progress should have made it easier to predict demographic behavior. But analyses of the errors in older forecasts show that demographic forecasts published by statistical agencies in 14 European countries hav…
Norwegian Elderly Less Likely to Live Alone in the Future
An editorial on plagiarism
Probabilistic household forecasts based on register data- the case of Denmark and Finland
Household forecasts are important for public planning and for predicting consumer demand
A combined Brass-random walk approach to probabilistic household forecasting
Do Japanese and Italian Women Live Longer than Women in Scandinavia
Mortality shifts and mortality compression in period and cohort life tables
When age-specific mortality falls, period life tables give a distorted view of the life expectancy (LE) and the degree of mortality compression in birth cohorts
Modelling education and climate change
Evaluating Probabilistic Population Forecasts
Keilman Nico. Évaluer les prévisions probabilistes de population / Evaluating Probabilistic Population Forecasts. In: Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, n°520-521, 2020. pp. 51-68
Demography (22 obras) · Population (20 obras) · Sociology (19 obras) · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management (16 obras) · Economics (13 obras) · Global Health Care Issues (12 obras) · demographic modeling and climate adaptation (11 obras) · Demography (11 obras) · Geography (11 obras) · Mathematics (11 obras)