Bear F Braumoeller
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 288337 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Bear F Braumoeller |
| PRENOMES | Bear F |
| SOBRENOME | Braumoeller |
| ASSINATURA | BRAUMOELLER B F |
| AFILIAÇÕES | The Ohio State University |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-0389-6853 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 28 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 632 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 28 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1997 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 9 |
Hierarchy and war
Scholars have written extensively about hierarchical international order, on the one hand, and war on the other, but surprisingly little work systematically explores the connection between the two. This disconnect is all the more striking given that empirical studies have found a strong relationship between the two. We provide a generative computational network model that explains hierarchy and war as two elements of a larger recursive process: T…
Reconceptualizing International Order
Recent years have witnessed the theorizing of international order from a global, rather than purely Western, perspective. We contribute to this approach by reviewing recent book-length theorizations by four prominent contemporary Chinese scholars. We outline how these conceptions of international order converge and diverge, identify their contributions and limitations, and compare them with Western paradigms of international order, such as realis…
Special Issue on “American Bias”
A “Big Tent” Issue
This, our team's penultimate issue of the Journal of Global Security Studies, demonstrates the big tent we hoped for from the journal's start. It is big in both its demonstration of our growing backlog (we are trying to pack in as much as we can to give our successors a little more editing space) and in its showcasing of our substantive, methodological, and theoretical diversity. We believe the backlog and the different article orientations toget…
Exclusion and Inclusion in Global Security Studies
Journal Article Exclusion and Inclusion in Global Security Studies Get access Deborah Avant, Deborah Avant Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Bear Braumoeller, Bear Braumoeller Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Erica Chenoweth, Erica Chenoweth Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Sarah Croco, Sarah Croco Search for other works by this …
Breadth, Conversation, and Controversy
The “big tent” mission of the Journal of Global Security Studies is well illustrated by this issue, as our first four articles explore issues from ontological security to cyber secrecy to sexual torture to traditional analyses of compellent threats. The next three articles illustrate the value of conversation between different parts of the field in their juxtaposition of arms control, humanitarianism, and empire; security governance and domestic …
Flexible Causal Inference for Political Science
Measuring the causal impact of state behavior on outcomes is one of the biggest methodological challenges in the field of political science, for two reasons: behavior is generally endogenous, and the threat of unobserved variables that confound the relationship between behavior and outcomes is pervasive. Matching methods, widely considered to be the state of the art in causal inference in political science, are generally ill-suited to inference i…
Geopolitics and Oil, Insurgent Politics, Nuclear Politics, Basing Politics, and Norm Politics
This issue launches the third volume of the Journal of Global Security Studies. It begins with an article by Cullen Hendrix arguing that geopolitics conditioned the oil curse. Particularly, he claims that the negative impact oil production has on a country's democratic tendencies is less a timeless result of market dynamics and more a particular consequence of geopolitics in the transition from the Cold War. His reanalysis of data and case examin…
Different Pathways to Creative Research and an Experiment with Implications for “Bridging the Gap”
The research articles in this issue demonstrate different approaches to creative research in security studies. Our first article by Kathryn Alexander demonstrates the value of bringing insights from one field to another. She draws on findings from American politics on the importance of religiosity for policy attitudes to extrapolate an argument about state bellicosity relevant to international security. Building on Americanists’ arguments, she in…
Food scarcity and state vulnerability
Increased scholarly focus on climate variability and its implications has given rise to a substantial literature on the relationship between climate-induced food insecurity and violent conflict. In this article, we theorize this relationship as contingent on the institutional and structural vulnerability of the state. States’ institutional and structural capabilities and constraints – such as the strength of the agricultural sector and domestic r…
Unifying the Study of Asymmetric Hypotheses
This article presents a conceptual clarification of asymmetric hypotheses and a discussion of methodologies available to test them. Despite the existence of a litany of theories that posit asymmetric hypotheses, most empirical studies fail to capture their core insight: boundaries separating zones of data from areas that lack data are substantively interesting. We discuss existing set-theoretic and large-N approaches to the study of asymmetric hy…
Aggregation Bias and the Analysis of Necessary and Sufficient Conditions in fsQCA
Fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) has become one of the most prominent methods in the social sciences for capturing causal complexity, especially for scholars with small- and medium- N data sets. This research note explores two key assumptions in fsQCA's methodology for testing for necessary and sufficient conditions-the cumulation assumption and the triangular data assumption-and argues that, in combination, they produce a form …
The promise of historical dynamism for the American study of international relations
While The Global Transformation makes a compelling case for the importance of the oft-ignored 19th century for IR theory, the book also represents an opportunity for an audience for which it was probably not intended: American IR scholars working in the quantitative empirical tradition, whom it should prompt to re-think the question of how the interactions that they seek to understand are conditional on deeper material and ideational dynamics
Guarding Against False Positives in Qualitative Comparative Analysis
The various methodological techniques that fall under the umbrella description of qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) are increasingly popular for modeling causal complexity and necessary or sufficient conditions in medium-N settings. Because QCA methods are not designed as statistical techniques, however, there is no way to assess the probability that the patterns they uncover are the result of chance. Moreover, the implications of the multip…
Information and Uncertainty
Drozdova and Gaubatz (2014) represent a welcome addition to the growing literature on quantitative methods designed to complement qualitative case studies. Partly due to its crossover nature, however, the article balances delicately—and ultimately untenably—between within-sample and out-of-sample inference. Moreover, isomorphisms with existing techniques, while validating the methodology, simultaneously raise questions regarding its comparative a…
The Great Powers and the International System
Do great leaders make history? Or are they compelled to act by historical circumstance? This debate has remained unresolved since Thomas Carlyle and Karl Marx framed it in the mid-nineteenth century, yet implicit answers inform our policies and our views of history. In this book, Professor Bear F. Braumoeller argues persuasively that both perspectives are correct: leaders shape the main material and ideological forces of history that subsequently…
Political Irrelevance, Democracy, and the Limits of Militarized Conflict
Although the statistical literature on conflict studies has generated strong and consistent findings on the relationship of political irrelevance and dyadic democracy to conflict, scholars have paid scant attention to the interesting theoretical issue of how they matter. The authors argue that additive controls and dropping irrelevant dyads constitute misspecifications of their effects. There are theoretical reasons to believe that the impact of …
The Myth of American Isolationism
International relations scholarship often describes America's foreign policy tradition as having isolationist tendencies or an isolationist dimension, a characterization derived most directly from American security policy in the 1920s and 1930s. This article offers a critique of this characterization. American diplomacy in the 1920s was subtle but ambitious and effective. American policy in the years leading up to the bombing of Pearl Harbor was …
Systemic Politics and the Origins of Great Power Conflict
Systemic theories of international politics rarely predict conflict short of cataclysmic systemic wars, and dyadic theories of conflict lack systemic perspective. This article attempts to bridge the gap by introducing a two-step theory of conflict among Great Powers. In the first stage, states engage in a dynamic, ongoing process of managing the international system, which inevitably produces tensions among them. In the second stage, relative lev…
Explaining Variance; Or, Stuck in a Moment We Can't Get Out Of
Political scientists overwhelmingly seek evidence of causation by measuring changes in the mean of the distribution of the dependent variable. This article points out that some causal relationships produce changes in the variance , not the mean, of that distribution. It makes the case for variance-altering causation by demonstrating its empirical relevance to political scientists. The article also lays out an array of causal mechanisms—under the …
When More Is Less
Gordon and Smith (2004) do a great service by introducing innovative and creative quantitative methods that incorporate information from qualitative sources. It is nevertheless important to examine the conditions under which the proposed estimators will be useful in practice. These conditions prove to be surprisingly restrictive: with the possible exception of extremely low-information settings, virtually all of the cases of discernible causation…
Hypothesis Testing and Multiplicative Interaction Terms
When a statistical equation incorporates a multiplicative term in an attempt to model interaction effects, the statistical significance of the lower-order coefficients is largely useless for the typical purposes of hypothesis testing. This fact remains largely unappreciated in political science, however. This brief article explains this point, provides examples, and offers some suggestions for more meaningful interpretation.I am grateful to Tim M…
Causal Complexity and the Study of Politics
Theories that posit complex causation, or multiple causal paths, pervade the study of politics but have yet to find accurate statistical expression. To remedy this situation I derive new econometric procedures, Boolean probit and logit, based on the logic of complexity. The solution provides an answer to a puzzle in the rational deterrence literature: the divergence between theory and case-study findings, on the one hand, and the findings of quan…
Perspectives on Pluralism
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Watching Your Posterior
In “Testing for Necessary and/or Sufficient Causation,” Jason Seawright (2002) presents an intriguing new Bayesian technique for testing theories that posit necessary conditions. His technique differs in substantial ways from those presented in separate articles by Dion (1998), Ragin (1987), and ourselves (2000) and constitutes a fundamental critique of those procedures. Having criticized quite a few procedures and theorists in our own article, w…
Hypothesis Testing and Multiplicative Interaction Terms
When a statistical equation incorporates a multiplicative term in an attempt to model interaction effects, the statistical significance of the lower-order coefficients is largely useless for the typical purposes of hypothesis testing. This fact remains largely unappreciated in political science, however. This brief article explains this point, provides examples, and offers some suggestions for more meaningful interpretation.I am grateful to Tim M…
The Methodology of Necessary Conditions
Causal Complexity and the Study of Politics
Theories that posit complex causation, or multiple causal paths, pervade the study of politics but have yet to find accurate statistical expression. To remedy this situation I derive new econometric procedures, Boolean probit and logit, based on the logic of complexity. The solution provides an answer to a puzzle in the rational deterrence literature: the divergence between theory and case-study findings, on the one hand, and the findings of quan…
Explaining Variance; Or, Stuck in a Moment We Can't Get Out Of
Political scientists overwhelmingly seek evidence of causation by measuring changes in the mean of the distribution of the dependent variable. This article points out that some causal relationships produce changes in the variance , not the mean, of that distribution. It makes the case for variance-altering causation by demonstrating its empirical relevance to political scientists. The article also lays out an array of causal mechanisms—under the …
Guarding Against False Positives in Qualitative Comparative Analysis
The various methodological techniques that fall under the umbrella description of qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) are increasingly popular for modeling causal complexity and necessary or sufficient conditions in medium-N settings. Because QCA methods are not designed as statistical techniques, however, there is no way to assess the probability that the patterns they uncover are the result of chance. Moreover, the implications of the multip…
Deadly Doves
This article's purpose is to assess the arguments of democratic peace scholars as they apply to the states of the former Soviet Union. The claim that liberalism is associated with nonviolent means of conflict resolution, in particular, is questionable in the case of newly independent states, in which liberalism bears a closer resemblance to nineteenth-century European liberal nationalism than it does to the universalist liberalism envisioned by t…
The Myth of American Isolationism
International relations scholarship often describes America's foreign policy tradition as having isolationist tendencies or an isolationist dimension, a characterization derived most directly from American security policy in the 1920s and 1930s. This article offers a critique of this characterization. American diplomacy in the 1920s was subtle but ambitious and effective. American policy in the years leading up to the bombing of Pearl Harbor was …
Food scarcity and state vulnerability
Increased scholarly focus on climate variability and its implications has given rise to a substantial literature on the relationship between climate-induced food insecurity and violent conflict. In this article, we theorize this relationship as contingent on the institutional and structural vulnerability of the state. States’ institutional and structural capabilities and constraints – such as the strength of the agricultural sector and domestic r…
Political Irrelevance, Democracy, and the Limits of Militarized Conflict
Although the statistical literature on conflict studies has generated strong and consistent findings on the relationship of political irrelevance and dyadic democracy to conflict, scholars have paid scant attention to the interesting theoretical issue of how they matter. The authors argue that additive controls and dropping irrelevant dyads constitute misspecifications of their effects. There are theoretical reasons to believe that the impact of …
Watching Your Posterior
In “Testing for Necessary and/or Sufficient Causation,” Jason Seawright (2002) presents an intriguing new Bayesian technique for testing theories that posit necessary conditions. His technique differs in substantial ways from those presented in separate articles by Dion (1998), Ragin (1987), and ourselves (2000) and constitutes a fundamental critique of those procedures. Having criticized quite a few procedures and theorists in our own article, w…
Systemic Politics and the Origins of Great Power Conflict
Systemic theories of international politics rarely predict conflict short of cataclysmic systemic wars, and dyadic theories of conflict lack systemic perspective. This article attempts to bridge the gap by introducing a two-step theory of conflict among Great Powers. In the first stage, states engage in a dynamic, ongoing process of managing the international system, which inevitably produces tensions among them. In the second stage, relative lev…
Reconceptualizing International Order
Recent years have witnessed the theorizing of international order from a global, rather than purely Western, perspective. We contribute to this approach by reviewing recent book-length theorizations by four prominent contemporary Chinese scholars. We outline how these conceptions of international order converge and diverge, identify their contributions and limitations, and compare them with Western paradigms of international order, such as realis…
Flexible Causal Inference for Political Science
Measuring the causal impact of state behavior on outcomes is one of the biggest methodological challenges in the field of political science, for two reasons: behavior is generally endogenous, and the threat of unobserved variables that confound the relationship between behavior and outcomes is pervasive. Matching methods, widely considered to be the state of the art in causal inference in political science, are generally ill-suited to inference i…
When More Is Less
Gordon and Smith (2004) do a great service by introducing innovative and creative quantitative methods that incorporate information from qualitative sources. It is nevertheless important to examine the conditions under which the proposed estimators will be useful in practice. These conditions prove to be surprisingly restrictive: with the possible exception of extremely low-information settings, virtually all of the cases of discernible causation…
Unifying the Study of Asymmetric Hypotheses
This article presents a conceptual clarification of asymmetric hypotheses and a discussion of methodologies available to test them. Despite the existence of a litany of theories that posit asymmetric hypotheses, most empirical studies fail to capture their core insight: boundaries separating zones of data from areas that lack data are substantively interesting. We discuss existing set-theoretic and large-N approaches to the study of asymmetric hy…
Aggregation Bias and the Analysis of Necessary and Sufficient Conditions in fsQCA
Fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) has become one of the most prominent methods in the social sciences for capturing causal complexity, especially for scholars with small- and medium- N data sets. This research note explores two key assumptions in fsQCA's methodology for testing for necessary and sufficient conditions-the cumulation assumption and the triangular data assumption-and argues that, in combination, they produce a form …
Hierarchy and war
Scholars have written extensively about hierarchical international order, on the one hand, and war on the other, but surprisingly little work systematically explores the connection between the two. This disconnect is all the more striking given that empirical studies have found a strong relationship between the two. We provide a generative computational network model that explains hierarchy and war as two elements of a larger recursive process: T…
Exclusion and Inclusion in Global Security Studies
Journal Article Exclusion and Inclusion in Global Security Studies Get access Deborah Avant, Deborah Avant Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Bear Braumoeller, Bear Braumoeller Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Erica Chenoweth, Erica Chenoweth Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Sarah Croco, Sarah Croco Search for other works by this …
Perspectives on Pluralism
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Deadly Doves
This article's purpose is to assess the arguments of democratic peace scholars as they apply to the states of the former Soviet Union. The claim that liberalism is associated with nonviolent means of conflict resolution, in particular, is questionable in the case of newly independent states, in which liberalism bears a closer resemblance to nineteenth-century European liberal nationalism than it does to the universalist liberalism envisioned by t…
The Methodology of Necessary Conditions
Sovereignty
Watching Your Posterior
In “Testing for Necessary and/or Sufficient Causation,” Jason Seawright (2002) presents an intriguing new Bayesian technique for testing theories that posit necessary conditions. His technique differs in substantial ways from those presented in separate articles by Dion (1998), Ragin (1987), and ourselves (2000) and constitutes a fundamental critique of those procedures. Having criticized quite a few procedures and theorists in our own article, w…
Causal Complexity and the Study of Politics
Theories that posit complex causation, or multiple causal paths, pervade the study of politics but have yet to find accurate statistical expression. To remedy this situation I derive new econometric procedures, Boolean probit and logit, based on the logic of complexity. The solution provides an answer to a puzzle in the rational deterrence literature: the divergence between theory and case-study findings, on the one hand, and the findings of quan…
Perspectives on Pluralism
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content
Hypothesis Testing and Multiplicative Interaction Terms
When a statistical equation incorporates a multiplicative term in an attempt to model interaction effects, the statistical significance of the lower-order coefficients is largely useless for the typical purposes of hypothesis testing. This fact remains largely unappreciated in political science, however. This brief article explains this point, provides examples, and offers some suggestions for more meaningful interpretation.I am grateful to Tim M…
When More Is Less
Gordon and Smith (2004) do a great service by introducing innovative and creative quantitative methods that incorporate information from qualitative sources. It is nevertheless important to examine the conditions under which the proposed estimators will be useful in practice. These conditions prove to be surprisingly restrictive: with the possible exception of extremely low-information settings, virtually all of the cases of discernible causation…
Explaining Variance; Or, Stuck in a Moment We Can't Get Out Of
Political scientists overwhelmingly seek evidence of causation by measuring changes in the mean of the distribution of the dependent variable. This article points out that some causal relationships produce changes in the variance , not the mean, of that distribution. It makes the case for variance-altering causation by demonstrating its empirical relevance to political scientists. The article also lays out an array of causal mechanisms—under the …
Systemic Politics and the Origins of Great Power Conflict
Systemic theories of international politics rarely predict conflict short of cataclysmic systemic wars, and dyadic theories of conflict lack systemic perspective. This article attempts to bridge the gap by introducing a two-step theory of conflict among Great Powers. In the first stage, states engage in a dynamic, ongoing process of managing the international system, which inevitably produces tensions among them. In the second stage, relative lev…
The Myth of American Isolationism
International relations scholarship often describes America's foreign policy tradition as having isolationist tendencies or an isolationist dimension, a characterization derived most directly from American security policy in the 1920s and 1930s. This article offers a critique of this characterization. American diplomacy in the 1920s was subtle but ambitious and effective. American policy in the years leading up to the bombing of Pearl Harbor was …
Political Irrelevance, Democracy, and the Limits of Militarized Conflict
Although the statistical literature on conflict studies has generated strong and consistent findings on the relationship of political irrelevance and dyadic democracy to conflict, scholars have paid scant attention to the interesting theoretical issue of how they matter. The authors argue that additive controls and dropping irrelevant dyads constitute misspecifications of their effects. There are theoretical reasons to believe that the impact of …
The Great Powers and the International System
Do great leaders make history? Or are they compelled to act by historical circumstance? This debate has remained unresolved since Thomas Carlyle and Karl Marx framed it in the mid-nineteenth century, yet implicit answers inform our policies and our views of history. In this book, Professor Bear F. Braumoeller argues persuasively that both perspectives are correct: leaders shape the main material and ideological forces of history that subsequently…
Information and Uncertainty
Drozdova and Gaubatz (2014) represent a welcome addition to the growing literature on quantitative methods designed to complement qualitative case studies. Partly due to its crossover nature, however, the article balances delicately—and ultimately untenably—between within-sample and out-of-sample inference. Moreover, isomorphisms with existing techniques, while validating the methodology, simultaneously raise questions regarding its comparative a…
Guarding Against False Positives in Qualitative Comparative Analysis
The various methodological techniques that fall under the umbrella description of qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) are increasingly popular for modeling causal complexity and necessary or sufficient conditions in medium-N settings. Because QCA methods are not designed as statistical techniques, however, there is no way to assess the probability that the patterns they uncover are the result of chance. Moreover, the implications of the multip…
The promise of historical dynamism for the American study of international relations
While The Global Transformation makes a compelling case for the importance of the oft-ignored 19th century for IR theory, the book also represents an opportunity for an audience for which it was probably not intended: American IR scholars working in the quantitative empirical tradition, whom it should prompt to re-think the question of how the interactions that they seek to understand are conditional on deeper material and ideational dynamics
Geopolitics and Oil, Insurgent Politics, Nuclear Politics, Basing Politics, and Norm Politics
This issue launches the third volume of the Journal of Global Security Studies. It begins with an article by Cullen Hendrix arguing that geopolitics conditioned the oil curse. Particularly, he claims that the negative impact oil production has on a country's democratic tendencies is less a timeless result of market dynamics and more a particular consequence of geopolitics in the transition from the Cold War. His reanalysis of data and case examin…
Different Pathways to Creative Research and an Experiment with Implications for “Bridging the Gap”
The research articles in this issue demonstrate different approaches to creative research in security studies. Our first article by Kathryn Alexander demonstrates the value of bringing insights from one field to another. She draws on findings from American politics on the importance of religiosity for policy attitudes to extrapolate an argument about state bellicosity relevant to international security. Building on Americanists’ arguments, she in…
Food scarcity and state vulnerability
Increased scholarly focus on climate variability and its implications has given rise to a substantial literature on the relationship between climate-induced food insecurity and violent conflict. In this article, we theorize this relationship as contingent on the institutional and structural vulnerability of the state. States’ institutional and structural capabilities and constraints – such as the strength of the agricultural sector and domestic r…
Unifying the Study of Asymmetric Hypotheses
This article presents a conceptual clarification of asymmetric hypotheses and a discussion of methodologies available to test them. Despite the existence of a litany of theories that posit asymmetric hypotheses, most empirical studies fail to capture their core insight: boundaries separating zones of data from areas that lack data are substantively interesting. We discuss existing set-theoretic and large-N approaches to the study of asymmetric hy…
Aggregation Bias and the Analysis of Necessary and Sufficient Conditions in fsQCA
Fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) has become one of the most prominent methods in the social sciences for capturing causal complexity, especially for scholars with small- and medium- N data sets. This research note explores two key assumptions in fsQCA's methodology for testing for necessary and sufficient conditions-the cumulation assumption and the triangular data assumption-and argues that, in combination, they produce a form …
Breadth, Conversation, and Controversy
The “big tent” mission of the Journal of Global Security Studies is well illustrated by this issue, as our first four articles explore issues from ontological security to cyber secrecy to sexual torture to traditional analyses of compellent threats. The next three articles illustrate the value of conversation between different parts of the field in their juxtaposition of arms control, humanitarianism, and empire; security governance and domestic …
Flexible Causal Inference for Political Science
Measuring the causal impact of state behavior on outcomes is one of the biggest methodological challenges in the field of political science, for two reasons: behavior is generally endogenous, and the threat of unobserved variables that confound the relationship between behavior and outcomes is pervasive. Matching methods, widely considered to be the state of the art in causal inference in political science, are generally ill-suited to inference i…
Special Issue on “American Bias”
A “Big Tent” Issue
This, our team's penultimate issue of the Journal of Global Security Studies, demonstrates the big tent we hoped for from the journal's start. It is big in both its demonstration of our growing backlog (we are trying to pack in as much as we can to give our successors a little more editing space) and in its showcasing of our substantive, methodological, and theoretical diversity. We believe the backlog and the different article orientations toget…
Political science (21 obras) · Computer Science (17 obras) · Epistemology (15 obras) · Sociology (15 obras) · Law (14 obras) · Politics (13 obras) · Economics (12 obras) · Political Conflict and Governance (12 obras) · Mathematics (10 obras) · International Relations and Foreign Policy (9 obras)