Jonathan Caulkins
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 3074888 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Jonathan Caulkins |
| PRENOMES | Jonathan |
| SOBRENOME | Caulkins |
| ASSINATURA | CAULKINS J |
| AFILIAÇÕES | Carnegie Mellon University |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-7748-9989 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 59 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 79 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 60 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1992 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 5 |
Improving Opioid Use Estimates Through Multiple Data Sources
Possible effects of cheap fentanyl on drug markets, use, and harm
Jama Health Forum Peer Reviewers in 2023
The Baltic and Nordic responses to the first Taliban poppy ban
The 2000-2001 and the 2022-2023 Taliban opium bans were and could be two of the largest ever disruptions to a major illegal drug market. To help understand potential implications of the current ban for Europe, this paper analyzes how opioid markets in seven Baltic and Nordic countries responded to the earlier ban, using literature review, key informant interviews, and secondary data analysis. The seven nations' markets responded in diverse ways, …
Changing dynamics of drug overdoses in the United Kingdom
Steady exponential growth in the all-drugs mortality rate may be a phenomenon specific to certain contexts. It remains an open question whether the explanation of steady exponential growth in the United States and Northern Ireland relates to demand and supply mechanisms, to social and political conditions, or to coincidence
When prohibition works
The absence of hysteria over fireworks problems and policies suggests that societies can address complex tradeoffs involving risky pleasures without excessive acrimony or divisiveness when that product or activity is not construed as a vice. However, the conflicted and time-varying history of fireworks bans also show that difficulty balancing freedoms and pleasure with harms to users and others is not restricted to drugs or other vices. Use-relat…
A detailed study of a prominent dark web fentanyl trafficking organization
Overdose deaths in North America have soared, primarily because of the spread of illegally manufactured fentanyl.This paper uses detailed qualitative and transaction-level data to analyse an early and prominent dark web fentanyl-selling operation.The data record the date, drug, quantity, and selling price for 5,589 transactions comprising 872,659 items sold for a little over $2.8 million through AlphaBay.Findings include that the organisation sus…
Responding to the opioid crisis in North America and beyond
Should drug use trends be studied holistically, or piece by piece
Rating the comparative efficacy of state-level cannabis policies on recreational cannabis markets in the United States
How much demand for money laundering services does drug selling create? Identifying the key parameters
This model permits estimation of the scale of money laundering associated with a particular drug market. It suggests that there are limits on money laundering controls as a way of reducing drug supply - although money laundering investigations may still be an effective way to identify and investigate high-level drug traffickers
Radical technological breakthroughs in drugs and drug markets
For cannabis and opioids in North America, conditions are ripe for significant changes in not only quantities consumed, and associated harms, but also in the roles these drugs and their control play in society. The overall situation with these drugs may look more different in 2040 compared to today, than today looks different from 2000. There are no obvious reasons why these trends will not spread to other continents
Outcomes associated with scheduling or up-scheduling controlled substances
Scheduling and up-scheduling can - though does not always - have substantial effects on a range of outcomes. Substitution to other substances is a possibility and so should be anticipated
Intensity of cannabis use
Opioids and the Criminal Justice System
The traditional US heroin market has transformed into a broader illegal opioid market, dominated first by prescription opioids (PO) and now also by fentanyl and other synthetic opioids (FOSO). Understanding of opioid-use disorder (OUD) has also transformed from being seen as a driver of crime to a medical condition whose sufferers deserve treatment. This creates new challenges and opportunities for the criminal justice system (CJS). Addressing in…
Lower-Risk Cannabis Use Guidelines
Lower-Risk Cannabis Use Guidelines: Will Users Listen? Jonathan P. Caulkins PhD, and Michelle L. Kilborn PhD Affiliation Jonathan P. Caulkins is with the Heinz College of Information Systems and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA. Michelle L. Kilborn is with Population, Public, and Indigenous Health at Alberta Health Services, Edmonton, AB, Canada.CopyRightCorrespondence should be sent to Jonathan P. Caulkins, Stever Univer…
Public health implications of legalising the production and sale of cannabis for medicinal and recreational use
What America's Users Spend on Illegal Drugs, 2006–2016
This report updates and extends estimates of the number of users, retail expenditures, and amount consumed from 2006 to 2016 for cocaine (including crack), heroin, marijuana, and methamphetamine in the United States. The authors find that people spent about $150 billion on these drugs in 2016. The authors' best estimates for 2016 suggest that the marijuana market was roughly the size of the cocaine and methamphetamine markets combined
Triangulating web & general population surveys
Legalising Drugs Prudently
Various jurisdictions are legalising not just cannabis possession and use, but also large-scale commercial production, distribution and sale. Potential problems with that form of legalization raise questions about how best to implement a legalisation. This paper analyses the interests of the suppliers and regulators to help lawmakers and voters decide what over-arching architecture for legalisation might be prudent. In particular, it suggests ban…
Drug Policy and the Public Good
Drug Policy and the Public Good presents the accumulated scientific knowledge of direct relevance to the development of drug policy on local, national, and international levels. The book explores both illicit drug use and non-medical use of prescription medications within a public health perspective. A conceptual basis for a rational drug policy is presented, along with new epidemiological data on the global dimensions of drug misuse, significant…
Supply control for illegal markets
Supply control approaches to drug problems focus on the production, distribution, and sale of illicit psychoactive substances, and include alternative development programmes in producer nations, control of precursor chemicals used to produce certain drugs (e.g. methamphetamines) interdiction at national borders, and the incarceration of drug dealers at all levels. There is no evidence that promoting alternative development as part of global drug …
Criminalization and decriminalization of drug possession
Research suggests that punishing drug users has some limitations as a major component of drug policy. An increasing number of countries and sub-national jurisdictions have therefore been reducing or eliminating criminal penalties for possession of small amounts of drugs for personal use, on grounds both of proportionality and effectiveness-oriented policy. Most decriminalization or depenalization programmes involve the substitution of civil penal…
Illegal markets
Illegal drugs are commodities that are bought and sold in markets. Many farmers are engaged in small amounts of drug growing in the producing countries, but there are comparatively small numbers of refiners, smugglers, and top-level importers. Compared to most legal markets, there are many sellers relative to the number of buyers in drug markets. One consequence of the network character of drug distribution is its resilience. Eliminating individu…
Big data on a big new market
How Drug Enforcement Affects Drug Prices
Enforcement against drug selling remains the principal tool of drug control in the United States and many other countries. Though the risk of incarceration for a drug dealer has risen fivefold or more over the last 25 years in the United States, the prices of cocaine and heroin have fallen substantially. Different models of how enforcement affects drug supply may help explain the paradox. There are substantial periods in which drug markets are no…
Kingpins or Mules
Research Summary: Drug policy reformers and defenders contest the extent to which low‐level drug offenders are being sent to prison and for how long. Using data from the Survey of Inmates in Federal and State Correctional Facilities, 1997 (BJS, 2000), we assess the seriousness of incarcerated drug offenders along dimensions of dangerousness, culpability, and harm—specifically, functional role and drug group participation, type and amount of drugs…
Developing Public Health Regulations for Marijuana
Until November 2012, no modern jurisdiction had removed the prohibition on the commercial production, distribution, and sale of marijuana for nonmedical purposes—not even the Netherlands. Government agencies in Colorado and Washington are now charged with granting production and processing licenses and developing regulations for legal marijuana, and other states and countries may follow. Our goal is not to address whether marijuana legalization i…
How illegal drugs enter an island country
A typology of drug smuggling ‘technologies’ is developed based on interviews with 110 inmates incarcerated in UK prisons for importing illegal drugs. Approximately three-quarters were involved in courier-based operations. The other 30 collectively accounted for substantially greater smuggling throughput capacity and fell into five groups: operations employing ‘bent’ lorry drivers; shipping drugs intermingled with legitimate commerce; transporting…
No change is a good change? Restrictive deterrence in illegal drug markets
Domestic Geographic Variation in Illicit Drug Prices
Opioids and the Criminal Justice System
The traditional US heroin market has transformed into a broader illegal opioid market, dominated first by prescription opioids (PO) and now also by fentanyl and other synthetic opioids (FOSO). Understanding of opioid-use disorder (OUD) has also transformed from being seen as a driver of crime to a medical condition whose sufferers deserve treatment. This creates new challenges and opportunities for the criminal justice system (CJS). Addressing in…
Heroin Policy for the Next Decade
The supply of heroin in the United States appears to have grown substantially in recent years, although it is not clear what impact this has had on consumption. Conventional indicators have shown only modest increases, but for a variety of reasons one would not expect increases even if we are in the early years of a new heroin use epidemic. It is even less clear what, if anything, should be done. Drug control resources are finite. Making heroin a…
Drug Prices and Emergency Department Mentions for Cocaine and Heroin
Objectives. In this report, the author illustrates the historic relation between retail drug prices and emergency department mentions for cocaine and heroin. Methods. Price series based on the Drug Enforcement Administration's System to Retrieve Information From Drug Evidence database were correlated with data on emergency department mentions from the Drug Abuse Warning Network for cocaine (1978–1996) and heroin (1981–1996). Results. A simple mod…
Redefining the goals of national drug policy
This paper discusses what the goals of national drug policy have been and suggests an alternative set of goals. The past emphasis on use reduction is found wanting. Total harm related to drugs can be viewed as the product of use and harm per use. Thus, reducing use usually serves to reduce harm. However, in some cases, use reduction programs may increase harm per use so much that they increase overall harm even as they succeed in reducing use. He…
How Many People Does the U.S. Imprison for Drug Use, and Who are They
Data from the Survey of Inmates in Federal and State Correctional Facilities, 1997 are used to estimate the number of drug-law violators in U.S. prisons solely because of their drug use and not because of involvement in drug distribution or other offenses. The estimates (5,380 to 41,047) are much lower than would be implied by naively assuming that conviction for drug possession implies no involvement in drug distribution. Implied imprisonment ri…
Using models that incorporate uncertainty
Predicting criminal recidivism
Describing Dawn's dominion
Dealing More Effectively and Humanely with Illegal Drugs
Many judge the American criminal justice system to have largely failed in its drug enforcement role, and the justice system itself has suffered a loss of community support and internal morale as a consequence. Five principles should guide improvement of drug enforcement, including that drug enforcement be viewed as a preventive activity, whose main goal is reducing drug abuse and related harms, and it should be designed for sustainability. Six mo…
How should Policy Respond to Disruptions in Markets for Illegal Drugs
This article raises the question of how drug policy should respond to take advantage of market disruptions. A simple mathematical model of the spread of drug use is adapted to a two-stage problem in which drug prices are abnormally low or high in the first stage, and the policy planner is allowed to adjust the level of drug control funding continuously over time. Optimal policies for this model are derived using the methods of optimal control the…
Heroin Policy for the Next Decade
The supply of heroin in the United States appears to have grown substantially in recent years, although it is not clear what impact this has had on consumption. Conventional indicators have shown only modest increases, but for a variety of reasons one would not expect increases even if we are in the early years of a new heroin use epidemic. It is even less clear what, if anything, should be done. Drug control resources are finite. Making heroin a…
Domestic Geographic Variation in Illicit Drug Prices
Describing Dawn's dominion
Redefining the goals of national drug policy
This paper discusses what the goals of national drug policy have been and suggests an alternative set of goals. The past emphasis on use reduction is found wanting. Total harm related to drugs can be viewed as the product of use and harm per use. Thus, reducing use usually serves to reduce harm. However, in some cases, use reduction programs may increase harm per use so much that they increase overall harm even as they succeed in reducing use. He…
Predicting criminal recidivism
What Price Data Tell Us about Drug Markets
This paper reviews empirical evidence on drug prices and discusses implications for understanding of drug markets and for policy. The most striking characteristics of drug prices are their high levels and extreme variability over time and space. High prices deter consumption but have ambiguous effects on drug-related crime. The consequences of the variability are largely unexplored and are difficult to determine. Conclusions are mixed with respec…
Noticing the Micro‐Distributional Consequences of Cigarette Taxation and Its Equivalent
Drug Prices and Emergency Department Mentions for Cocaine and Heroin
Objectives. In this report, the author illustrates the historic relation between retail drug prices and emergency department mentions for cocaine and heroin. Methods. Price series based on the Drug Enforcement Administration's System to Retrieve Information From Drug Evidence database were correlated with data on emergency department mentions from the Drug Abuse Warning Network for cocaine (1978–1996) and heroin (1981–1996). Results. A simple mod…
Using models that incorporate uncertainty
Kingpins or Mules
Research Summary: Drug policy reformers and defenders contest the extent to which low‐level drug offenders are being sent to prison and for how long. Using data from the Survey of Inmates in Federal and State Correctional Facilities, 1997 (BJS, 2000), we assess the seriousness of incarcerated drug offenders along dimensions of dangerousness, culpability, and harm—specifically, functional role and drug group participation, type and amount of drugs…
How Many People Does the U.S. Imprison for Drug Use, and Who are They
Data from the Survey of Inmates in Federal and State Correctional Facilities, 1997 are used to estimate the number of drug-law violators in U.S. prisons solely because of their drug use and not because of involvement in drug distribution or other offenses. The estimates (5,380 to 41,047) are much lower than would be implied by naively assuming that conviction for drug possession implies no involvement in drug distribution. Implied imprisonment ri…
Placing the poor while keeping the rich in their place
A central objective of modern US housing policy is deconcentrating poverty through "housing mobility programs" that move poor families into middle class neighborhoods. Pursuing these policies too aggressively risks inducing middle class flight, but bei
Implications of Inertia for Assessing Drug Control Policy
An empirically-derived model of national drug initiation is combined with a compartment model of trends in illicit drug use parameterized for Australia. Numbers of initiates seem to oscillate over time but with fluctuations whose aptitude diminishes over time. Lags and interpersonal variation in drug use careers smooth those oscillations for measures of problem use and total drug-related social cost, so even abrupt changes in initiation barely ri…
How should Policy Respond to Disruptions in Markets for Illegal Drugs
This article raises the question of how drug policy should respond to take advantage of market disruptions. A simple mathematical model of the spread of drug use is adapted to a two-stage problem in which drug prices are abnormally low or high in the first stage, and the policy planner is allowed to adjust the level of drug control funding continuously over time. Optimal policies for this model are derived using the methods of optimal control the…
Optimal timing of use reduction vs. harm reduction in a drug epidemic model
How illegal drugs enter an island country
A typology of drug smuggling ‘technologies’ is developed based on interviews with 110 inmates incarcerated in UK prisons for importing illegal drugs. Approximately three-quarters were involved in courier-based operations. The other 30 collectively accounted for substantially greater smuggling throughput capacity and fell into five groups: operations employing ‘bent’ lorry drivers; shipping drugs intermingled with legitimate commerce; transporting…
Reducing Drug Trafficking Revenues and Violence in Mexico
U.S. demand for illicit drugs creates markets for Mexican drug-trafficking organizations (DTOs) and helps foster violence in Mexico. This paper examines how marijuana legalization in California might influence DTO revenues and the violence in Mexico
How Drug Enforcement Affects Drug Prices
Enforcement against drug selling remains the principal tool of drug control in the United States and many other countries. Though the risk of incarceration for a drug dealer has risen fivefold or more over the last 25 years in the United States, the prices of cocaine and heroin have fallen substantially. Different models of how enforcement affects drug supply may help explain the paradox. There are substantial periods in which drug markets are no…
Drugs and Crime
This article explains why various policies are or are not likely to reduce the amount of crime associated with drugs, by marrying a simple typology of the types of drug-related crime with analysis of how different interventions affect drug markets and drug use. Section I addresses the science half of the literature but forgoes the usual detailed review of the empirical evidence. Section II lays down principles for thinking about the impact of dru…
Illicit Trade and the Global Economy
Economists explore the relationship between expanding international trade and the parallel growth in illicit trade, including illegal drugs, smuggling, and organized crime. As international trade has expanded dramatically in the postwar period—an expansion accelerated by the opening of China, Russia, India, and Eastern Europe—illicit international trade has grown in tandem with it. This volume uses the economist's toolkit to examine the economic,…
The global recession's effect on drug demand—Diluted by inertia
No change is a good change? Restrictive deterrence in illegal drug markets
The term and the vision
Multinational overview of cannabis production regimes
This study provides a multinational overview of cannabis production regimes, with a special focus on identifying and describing official statements and/or legal decisions made about production regimes for non-medical and non-scientific purposes
Statistics on Cannabis Users Skew Perceptions of Cannabis Use
focusing on days of use instead of prevalence shows substantially greater increases in U.S. cannabis use in recent years; however, the recent increase is mostly among adults, not youth. Relatively more rapid growth in use days also occurred among the college-educated and Hispanics. Further, data from a survey conducted in seven European countries show a strong positive correlation between frequency of use and quantity consumed per day of use, sug…
Business (36 obras) · Political science (31 obras) · Medicine (30 obras) · Economics (28 obras) · Psychology (27 obras) · Psychiatry (26 obras) · Law (24 obras) · Crime, Illicit Activities, and Governance (21 obras) · Drug (21 obras) · Substance Abuse Treatment and Outcomes (20 obras)