Thomas W Casstevens
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 313250 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Thomas W Casstevens |
| PRENOMES | Thomas W |
| SOBRENOME | Casstevens |
| ASSINATURA | CASSTEVENS T W |
| AFILIAÇÕES | Oakland University |
| VERIFICADO | Não |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 17 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 28 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 17 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1963 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1989 |
| ÍNDICE H | 3 |
The Circulation of Elites
This article reviews a mathematical model of the circulation of political elites. Poisson distributions of turnovers and exponential distributions of lengths of tenure are the mathematics of the model. These distributions are equivalent in applications, if tenure is the time between turnovers. The model is broad in scope; it has been applied to at least 30 jurisdictions from counties to countries and at least seven types of institutions from coun…
The Circulation of Elites
The Politburo since its formation in 1919 has been the ruling elite of the Communist party of the Soviet Union. The traditional wisdom is that a blood purge is just around the corner and that a member's tenure is incalculably chaotic. This wisdom of “Evil Empire” is simply mistaken with respect to the Politburo. A statistical review of Politburo membership from 1919 to 1987 shows that the tenure of members is and was virtually the same as that fo…
The American Political Scene
The American political scene is dominated, as these words are written, by presidential primaries and personal campaigns for presidential nominations. The selection of the chief executive, of course, will be the signal political event of the year 1980. Congressional elections, unlike general elections in parliamentary systems, rarely energize and organize the polity on a national basis. Presidential elections are the national political process in …
Aggressive Political Participation
Exponential Survival on the Soviet Central Committee
Mr. Martin Callaway has recently tested a brace of predictions derived from our exponential models of membership attrition on the Soviet Central Committee since Stalin. Scientific predictions are relatively rare in political science; so his figures are not without interest (if only for their novelty value). We had predicted that the number of full members to serve continuously would be 125e-00972t for the full members elected in 1952, and 133e-.0…
The American Political System in the Contemporary Era
There was a time when peace and prosperity were regarded as normal in America. The ship of state was not guided by military diplomacy. Americans jostled to root at the public trough. The Imperial Presidency did not exist. The issues of the day were compromised in the halls of Congress. Presidents proposed. Congress disposed. This was politics as usual. The Constitution was designed for such a system
The Soviet Central Committee Since Stalin
The negative exponential model of attrition, Pt = eTct, is a statistically acceptable model of continuous tenure on the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. Applications of the model include (1) deductive predictions about future continuous service, (2) an estimate of the number of members purged in 1957-61, and (3) comparative documentation of the relatively low rate of turnover on recent Central Committees
The hunting of the paradox
The Cube Law and the Decomposed System
Avec un scrutin uninominal de type majoritaire et des élections générales où les deux mêmes partis sont seuls à s'affronter dans chacune des circonscriptions, si les deux partis obtiennent une quantité X et Y de votes, la proportion des sièges qu'obtiendra le parti X sera mesuré par X3/(X3 + Y3), et celle qu'obtiendra le parti Y par Y3/(X3 + Y3). C'est la loi du cube dans sa formulation classique.La perspective adoptée dans cet article consiste à…
The Committee Function
In legislative systems a bill is commonly considered and reported by an appropriate committee before it is considered on the floor of the house. Since motions on the floor frequently relate to such bills, it is often apposite to refer to a motion's relevant committee. This article presents a mathematical model of the relationship between the relevant committee's divisions on the floor and a motion's probability of passing. Let x be the proportion…
The Caucus-Race
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button
Linear Algebra and Legislative Voting Behavior
Turnover and Tenure in the Canadian House of Commons, 1867–1968
This article presents a theoretical analysis of the turnover and tenure of the members of the Canadian House of Commons from 1867 through 1968. Previous studies of such turnover and tenure have been quantitative, but not theoretical, yielding precise measurements but no pattern. A statistical résumé is no substitute for a mathematical model. Both may be accurate, parsimonious, and elegant; but a mathematical theory is distinguished by its general…
The Politics of Fair-Housing Legislation
A Theorem About Voting
The objective of this essay is to present a simple decision-theoretic model of individual rational voting in a single-member district, using the simple-majority single-ballot system of election, and to derive the following theorem from the model: The rational voter votes for the candidate (party) associated with the outcome he (the voter) most prefers.The model and theorem may interest students of voting for at least two reasons. First, the theor…
A Note on the Organizing Efficiency of Theories
A comment upon "The Organizing Efficiency of Theories: The N/V Ratio as a Crude Rank Order Measure" (The American Behavioral Scien tist, October, 1965), which contends that the criterion for evaluating al ternative theories does not provide a sound basis for such a decision, and comments upon the issues raised by such a consideration. Mr. Casstevens is an Assistant Specialist with the Institute of Governmental Studies, the University of Californi…
The Context of Democratic Competition in American State Politics
Possible correlates of the degree of interparty electoral competition in the American states were investigated. Wealth, education, and welfare expenditure levels were found to be closely associated with the level of interparty competition within states. The degrees of industrialization, urbanization, and apportionment were not found to be closely associated with the degree of interparty competition
The Context of Democratic Competition in American State Politics
Possible correlates of the degree of interparty electoral competition in the American states were investigated. Wealth, education, and welfare expenditure levels were found to be closely associated with the level of interparty competition within states. The degrees of industrialization, urbanization, and apportionment were not found to be closely associated with the degree of interparty competition
Turnover and Tenure in the Canadian House of Commons, 1867–1968
This article presents a theoretical analysis of the turnover and tenure of the members of the Canadian House of Commons from 1867 through 1968. Previous studies of such turnover and tenure have been quantitative, but not theoretical, yielding precise measurements but no pattern. A statistical résumé is no substitute for a mathematical model. Both may be accurate, parsimonious, and elegant; but a mathematical theory is distinguished by its general…
The Cube Law and the Decomposed System
Avec un scrutin uninominal de type majoritaire et des élections générales où les deux mêmes partis sont seuls à s'affronter dans chacune des circonscriptions, si les deux partis obtiennent une quantité X et Y de votes, la proportion des sièges qu'obtiendra le parti X sera mesuré par X3/(X3 + Y3), et celle qu'obtiendra le parti Y par Y3/(X3 + Y3). C'est la loi du cube dans sa formulation classique.La perspective adoptée dans cet article consiste à…
Linear Algebra and Legislative Voting Behavior
The Soviet Central Committee Since Stalin
The negative exponential model of attrition, Pt = eTct, is a statistically acceptable model of continuous tenure on the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. Applications of the model include (1) deductive predictions about future continuous service, (2) an estimate of the number of members purged in 1957-61, and (3) comparative documentation of the relatively low rate of turnover on recent Central Committees
The Committee Function
In legislative systems a bill is commonly considered and reported by an appropriate committee before it is considered on the floor of the house. Since motions on the floor frequently relate to such bills, it is often apposite to refer to a motion's relevant committee. This article presents a mathematical model of the relationship between the relevant committee's divisions on the floor and a motion's probability of passing. Let x be the proportion…
The Politics of Fair-Housing Legislation
A Theorem About Voting
The objective of this essay is to present a simple decision-theoretic model of individual rational voting in a single-member district, using the simple-majority single-ballot system of election, and to derive the following theorem from the model: The rational voter votes for the candidate (party) associated with the outcome he (the voter) most prefers.The model and theorem may interest students of voting for at least two reasons. First, the theor…
The Circulation of Elites
The Politburo since its formation in 1919 has been the ruling elite of the Communist party of the Soviet Union. The traditional wisdom is that a blood purge is just around the corner and that a member's tenure is incalculably chaotic. This wisdom of “Evil Empire” is simply mistaken with respect to the Politburo. A statistical review of Politburo membership from 1919 to 1987 shows that the tenure of members is and was virtually the same as that fo…
Exponential Survival on the Soviet Central Committee
Mr. Martin Callaway has recently tested a brace of predictions derived from our exponential models of membership attrition on the Soviet Central Committee since Stalin. Scientific predictions are relatively rare in political science; so his figures are not without interest (if only for their novelty value). We had predicted that the number of full members to serve continuously would be 125e-00972t for the full members elected in 1952, and 133e-.0…
The Context of Democratic Competition in American State Politics
Possible correlates of the degree of interparty electoral competition in the American states were investigated. Wealth, education, and welfare expenditure levels were found to be closely associated with the level of interparty competition within states. The degrees of industrialization, urbanization, and apportionment were not found to be closely associated with the degree of interparty competition
A Note on the Organizing Efficiency of Theories
A comment upon "The Organizing Efficiency of Theories: The N/V Ratio as a Crude Rank Order Measure" (The American Behavioral Scien tist, October, 1965), which contends that the criterion for evaluating al ternative theories does not provide a sound basis for such a decision, and comments upon the issues raised by such a consideration. Mr. Casstevens is an Assistant Specialist with the Institute of Governmental Studies, the University of Californi…
A Theorem About Voting
The objective of this essay is to present a simple decision-theoretic model of individual rational voting in a single-member district, using the simple-majority single-ballot system of election, and to derive the following theorem from the model: The rational voter votes for the candidate (party) associated with the outcome he (the voter) most prefers.The model and theorem may interest students of voting for at least two reasons. First, the theor…
The Politics of Fair-Housing Legislation
The Caucus-Race
An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button
Linear Algebra and Legislative Voting Behavior
Turnover and Tenure in the Canadian House of Commons, 1867–1968
This article presents a theoretical analysis of the turnover and tenure of the members of the Canadian House of Commons from 1867 through 1968. Previous studies of such turnover and tenure have been quantitative, but not theoretical, yielding precise measurements but no pattern. A statistical résumé is no substitute for a mathematical model. Both may be accurate, parsimonious, and elegant; but a mathematical theory is distinguished by its general…
The Cube Law and the Decomposed System
Avec un scrutin uninominal de type majoritaire et des élections générales où les deux mêmes partis sont seuls à s'affronter dans chacune des circonscriptions, si les deux partis obtiennent une quantité X et Y de votes, la proportion des sièges qu'obtiendra le parti X sera mesuré par X3/(X3 + Y3), et celle qu'obtiendra le parti Y par Y3/(X3 + Y3). C'est la loi du cube dans sa formulation classique.La perspective adoptée dans cet article consiste à…
The Committee Function
In legislative systems a bill is commonly considered and reported by an appropriate committee before it is considered on the floor of the house. Since motions on the floor frequently relate to such bills, it is often apposite to refer to a motion's relevant committee. This article presents a mathematical model of the relationship between the relevant committee's divisions on the floor and a motion's probability of passing. Let x be the proportion…
The hunting of the paradox
The Soviet Central Committee Since Stalin
The negative exponential model of attrition, Pt = eTct, is a statistically acceptable model of continuous tenure on the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. Applications of the model include (1) deductive predictions about future continuous service, (2) an estimate of the number of members purged in 1957-61, and (3) comparative documentation of the relatively low rate of turnover on recent Central Committees
The American Political System in the Contemporary Era
There was a time when peace and prosperity were regarded as normal in America. The ship of state was not guided by military diplomacy. Americans jostled to root at the public trough. The Imperial Presidency did not exist. The issues of the day were compromised in the halls of Congress. Presidents proposed. Congress disposed. This was politics as usual. The Constitution was designed for such a system
The American Political Scene
The American political scene is dominated, as these words are written, by presidential primaries and personal campaigns for presidential nominations. The selection of the chief executive, of course, will be the signal political event of the year 1980. Congressional elections, unlike general elections in parliamentary systems, rarely energize and organize the polity on a national basis. Presidential elections are the national political process in …
Aggressive Political Participation
Exponential Survival on the Soviet Central Committee
Mr. Martin Callaway has recently tested a brace of predictions derived from our exponential models of membership attrition on the Soviet Central Committee since Stalin. Scientific predictions are relatively rare in political science; so his figures are not without interest (if only for their novelty value). We had predicted that the number of full members to serve continuously would be 125e-00972t for the full members elected in 1952, and 133e-.0…
The Circulation of Elites
This article reviews a mathematical model of the circulation of political elites. Poisson distributions of turnovers and exponential distributions of lengths of tenure are the mathematics of the model. These distributions are equivalent in applications, if tenure is the time between turnovers. The model is broad in scope; it has been applied to at least 30 jurisdictions from counties to countries and at least seven types of institutions from coun…
The Circulation of Elites
The Politburo since its formation in 1919 has been the ruling elite of the Communist party of the Soviet Union. The traditional wisdom is that a blood purge is just around the corner and that a member's tenure is incalculably chaotic. This wisdom of “Evil Empire” is simply mistaken with respect to the Politburo. A statistical review of Politburo membership from 1919 to 1987 shows that the tenure of members is and was virtually the same as that fo…
Political science (15 obras) · Law (12 obras) · Politics (11 obras) · Law (10 obras) · Economics (9 obras) · Computer Science (7 obras) · Game Theory and Voting Systems (6 obras) · Mathematics (6 obras) · Public Administration (6 obras) · Public Administration (6 obras)