Bas Van Ruijven
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 3489520 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Bas Van Ruijven |
| PRENOMES | Bas |
| SOBRENOME | Van Ruijven |
| ASSINATURA | VAN RUIJVEN B |
| AFILIAÇÕES | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-1232-5892 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 31 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 325 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 31 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2007 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 4 |
Promising climate progress from net-zero ambitions to the Paris Agreement goal
Climate targets require strong commitments from countries to be achieved. Using a multi-model analysis, we show that current net-zero pledges bring the world closer to a well-below 2 °C pathway, but an emission gap remains. Increasing ambition will be crucial: expanding the global coverage of net-zero pledges and speeding up action increases consistency with the Paris Agreement (1.5–2.0 °C range in model mean). However, reaching the 1.5 °C goal w…
Meeting climate target with realistic demand-side policies in the residential sector
Closing decent living gaps in energy and emissions scenarios
Social and environmental agendas are intricately connected and shape the international policy discourse. To support these discussions, we present a framework for interpreting global scenario outcomes on energy demand and supply-side transitions through the lens of societal well-being and minimum resource requirements. We develop and apply a new model called Decent living standards and the Environment in Scenarios considering Inequality and Resour…
Priority climate and health modelling needs
Climate and health modelling is necessary for improving understanding of the current and future distribution and timing of climate-related health risks. However, underinvestment in this area has limited the understanding required to inform policies that enable multisectoral interventions to safeguard health. We synthesised insights from a survey of 65 global climate and health modelling experts and 36 participants in a hybrid meeting to identify …
Quantifying minimum mobility and transport needs
The concept of “sustainable consumption corridors” bridges two topics critical to assessing energy and transport systems: human wellbeing and planetary boundaries. However, large disagreements remain regarding how to define minimum, essential and decent levels of demand, which form the floor of such corridors. Aggregate approaches based upon distance travelled (e.g. passenger-kilometres) are insufficient, as they omit why people move. To address …
Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints
Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO 2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for emissions trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios to alternative scenarios with institutional, geophysical and technological feasibility constraints and enable…
Circular strategies for building sector decarbonization in China
The building sector in China is responsible for 40% of total energy‐related CO 2 emissions, driven by its large population, continuous economic growth, and construction boom. In addition to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy use, buildings drive significant emissions for construction activities and production of energy‐intensive materials, such as steel and cement. While supply‐side energy strategies have been extensively explored, a dema…
Income and inequality pathways consistent with eradicating poverty
To investigate concurrent climate action and poverty eradication, we present combined income growth (GDP/capita) and domestic income inequality (measured as Gini coefficients) pathways that pursue (absolute and relative) poverty eradication reflecting the three narratives of Sustainable Development Pathway. The GDP/capita pathways are modifications of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP1 scenario, including one post-growth future for high-income…
Multiple pathways towards sustainable development goals and climate targets
The UN sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the Paris climate target require a holistic transformation towards human well-being within planetary boundaries. However, there are growing debates on how to best pursue these targets. Proposed transformation strategies include market- and technology-driven green-growth, shifting towards a sufficiency-oriented post-growth economy, and a transformation driven primarily by strong government action. He…
Energizing building renovation
In recent years, discussions surrounding climate change have increasingly emphasized the significance of demand-side solutions. This shift has led to an interdisciplinary and bottom-up approach aimed at supporting global efforts to mitigate climate change. However, conventional modelling tools used to understand the energy demand system and to inform policymaking often fall short in capturing bottom-up dynamics accurately and at the required leve…
Social media data shed light on air-conditioning interest of heat-vulnerable regions and sociodemographic groups
Endogenous simulation of low-carbon lifestyle change in global climate mitigation pathways
Global Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) used to characterise mitigation pathways have very limited or no formal representation of lifestyles and lifestyle change. We demonstrate a novel approach to endogenously simulating low-carbon lifestyle heterogeneity and lifestyle change through soft-coupling with our new empirically-based LIFE model. Coupling LIFE to global IAMs enables dynamic simulation of distinctive lifestyle change contributions to…
Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout
To reach the mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement, many countries will have to phase out their coal power plants prematurely, i.e., before the end of their normal lifetimes, which will lead quite possibly to significant stranded assets. This could present a major challenge, particularly for many of the rapidly developing countries whose electricity demand is growing and which are currently expanding their coal fleets. Recent research shows tha…
Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated Assessment Models
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, paved the way for a new hybrid global climate governance architecture with both bottom-up and top-down elements. While governments can choose individual climate goals and actions, a global stocktake and a ratcheting-up mechanism have been put in place with the overall aim to ensure that collective efforts will prevent increasing adverse impacts of climate change. Integrated assessment models show that current…
Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot
Using social media audience data to analyse the drivers of low-carbon diets
Low-carbon lifestyles are key to climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and keeping the Earth in a safe operating space. Understanding the global feasibility and drivers of low-carbon lifestyles requires large scale data covering various countries, demographic and socioeconomic groups. In this study, we use the audience segmentation data from Facebook’s advertising platform to analyse the extent and drivers of interest in sustainab…
Integrated assessment model diagnostics
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) form a prime tool in informing about climate mitigation strategies. Diagnostic indicators that allow comparison across these models can help describe and explain differences in model projections. This increases transparency and comparability. Earlier, the IAM community has developed an approach to diagnose models (Kriegler (2015 Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 90 45–61)). Here we build on this, by proposing a se…
A multidimensional feasibility evaluation of low-carbon scenarios
Long-term mitigation scenarios developed by integrated assessment models underpin major aspects of recent IPCC reports and have been critical to identify the system transformations that are required to meet stringent climate goals. However, they have been criticized for proposing pathways that may prove challenging to implement in the real world and for failing to capture the social and institutional challenges of the transition. There is a growi…
Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals
The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, it also calls for ‘making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions’. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associated investment requirements in the coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider the nea…
Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions
Faster or slower decarbonization? Policymaker and stakeholder expectations on the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global energy transition
The COVID-19 pandemic might have tremendous consequences on decarbonization efforts across the globe. Understanding governments' policy action in the short and medium term is key to assess whether the response to the crisis will crowd out or fast-track decarbonization efforts. We surveyed over 200 policymakers and stakeholders from 55 different countries to collect climate policy expectations in various sectors and regions in the next five years.…
Integrating energy access, efficiency and renewable energy policies in sub-Saharan Africa
The role of energy in social and economic development is recognised by sustainable development goal 7 that targets three aspects of energy access: ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services, substantially increase the share of renewable energy, and double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency. With the projected increase in population, income and energy access in sub-Saharan Africa, demand for energy …
From shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to oceanic system pathways (OSPs)
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm
This paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions and climate changes following the SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with the green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive development respecting environmental boundaries). The results are based on the implementation using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model and are compared with a) other IMAGE implementation…
The roads ahead
The roads ahead
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm
This paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions and climate changes following the SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with the green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive development respecting environmental boundaries). The results are based on the implementation using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model and are compared with a) other IMAGE implementation…
Modeling Energy and Development
The Copenhagen Accord
From shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to oceanic system pathways (OSPs)
Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions
Faster or slower decarbonization? Policymaker and stakeholder expectations on the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global energy transition
The COVID-19 pandemic might have tremendous consequences on decarbonization efforts across the globe. Understanding governments' policy action in the short and medium term is key to assess whether the response to the crisis will crowd out or fast-track decarbonization efforts. We surveyed over 200 policymakers and stakeholders from 55 different countries to collect climate policy expectations in various sectors and regions in the next five years.…
Quantifying minimum mobility and transport needs
The concept of “sustainable consumption corridors” bridges two topics critical to assessing energy and transport systems: human wellbeing and planetary boundaries. However, large disagreements remain regarding how to define minimum, essential and decent levels of demand, which form the floor of such corridors. Aggregate approaches based upon distance travelled (e.g. passenger-kilometres) are insufficient, as they omit why people move. To address …
Energizing building renovation
In recent years, discussions surrounding climate change have increasingly emphasized the significance of demand-side solutions. This shift has led to an interdisciplinary and bottom-up approach aimed at supporting global efforts to mitigate climate change. However, conventional modelling tools used to understand the energy demand system and to inform policymaking often fall short in capturing bottom-up dynamics accurately and at the required leve…
Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated Assessment Models
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, paved the way for a new hybrid global climate governance architecture with both bottom-up and top-down elements. While governments can choose individual climate goals and actions, a global stocktake and a ratcheting-up mechanism have been put in place with the overall aim to ensure that collective efforts will prevent increasing adverse impacts of climate change. Integrated assessment models show that current…
Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels
On the basis of the IPCC B2, A1b and B1 baseline scenarios, mitigation scenarios were developed that stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 650, 550 and 450 and – subject to specific assumptions – 400 ppm CO2-eq. The analysis takes into account a large number of reduction options, such as reductions of non-CO2 gases, carbon plantations and measures in the energy system. The study shows stabilization as low as 450 ppm CO2-eq. to be technically…
Modeling Energy and Development
The Copenhagen Accord
Rcp2.6
The RCP2.6 emission and concentration pathway is representative of the literature on mitigation scenarios aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to 2°C. These scenarios form the low end of the scenario literature in terms of emissions and radiative forcing. They often show negative emissions from energy use in the second half of the 21st century. The RCP2.6 scenario is shown to be technically feasible in the IMAGE integrated asse…
Emission scenarios for a global hydrogen economy and the consequences for global air pollution
Pathways to achieve universal household access to modern energy by 2030
A lack of access to modern energy impacts health and welfare and impedes development for billions of people. Growing concern about these impacts has mobilized the international community to set new targets for universal modern energy access. However, analyses exploring pathways to achieve these targets and quantifying the potential costs and benefits are limited. Here, we use two modelling frameworks to analyse investments and consequences of ach…
The roads ahead
Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm
This paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions and climate changes following the SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with the green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive development respecting environmental boundaries). The results are based on the implementation using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model and are compared with a) other IMAGE implementation…
From shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to oceanic system pathways (OSPs)
Integrating energy access, efficiency and renewable energy policies in sub-Saharan Africa
The role of energy in social and economic development is recognised by sustainable development goal 7 that targets three aspects of energy access: ensure universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services, substantially increase the share of renewable energy, and double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency. With the projected increase in population, income and energy access in sub-Saharan Africa, demand for energy …
Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot
Using social media audience data to analyse the drivers of low-carbon diets
Low-carbon lifestyles are key to climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and keeping the Earth in a safe operating space. Understanding the global feasibility and drivers of low-carbon lifestyles requires large scale data covering various countries, demographic and socioeconomic groups. In this study, we use the audience segmentation data from Facebook’s advertising platform to analyse the extent and drivers of interest in sustainab…
Integrated assessment model diagnostics
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) form a prime tool in informing about climate mitigation strategies. Diagnostic indicators that allow comparison across these models can help describe and explain differences in model projections. This increases transparency and comparability. Earlier, the IAM community has developed an approach to diagnose models (Kriegler (2015 Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 90 45–61)). Here we build on this, by proposing a se…
A multidimensional feasibility evaluation of low-carbon scenarios
Long-term mitigation scenarios developed by integrated assessment models underpin major aspects of recent IPCC reports and have been critical to identify the system transformations that are required to meet stringent climate goals. However, they have been criticized for proposing pathways that may prove challenging to implement in the real world and for failing to capture the social and institutional challenges of the transition. There is a growi…
Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals
The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, it also calls for ‘making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions’. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associated investment requirements in the coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider the nea…
Land-based implications of early climate actions without global net-negative emissions
Faster or slower decarbonization? Policymaker and stakeholder expectations on the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global energy transition
The COVID-19 pandemic might have tremendous consequences on decarbonization efforts across the globe. Understanding governments' policy action in the short and medium term is key to assess whether the response to the crisis will crowd out or fast-track decarbonization efforts. We surveyed over 200 policymakers and stakeholders from 55 different countries to collect climate policy expectations in various sectors and regions in the next five years.…
Exploring Enablers for an Ambitious Coal Phaseout
To reach the mitigation goals of the Paris Agreement, many countries will have to phase out their coal power plants prematurely, i.e., before the end of their normal lifetimes, which will lead quite possibly to significant stranded assets. This could present a major challenge, particularly for many of the rapidly developing countries whose electricity demand is growing and which are currently expanding their coal fleets. Recent research shows tha…
Exploring Global Climate Policy Futures and Their Representation in Integrated Assessment Models
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, paved the way for a new hybrid global climate governance architecture with both bottom-up and top-down elements. While governments can choose individual climate goals and actions, a global stocktake and a ratcheting-up mechanism have been put in place with the overall aim to ensure that collective efforts will prevent increasing adverse impacts of climate change. Integrated assessment models show that current…
Social media data shed light on air-conditioning interest of heat-vulnerable regions and sociodemographic groups
Endogenous simulation of low-carbon lifestyle change in global climate mitigation pathways
Global Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) used to characterise mitigation pathways have very limited or no formal representation of lifestyles and lifestyle change. We demonstrate a novel approach to endogenously simulating low-carbon lifestyle heterogeneity and lifestyle change through soft-coupling with our new empirically-based LIFE model. Coupling LIFE to global IAMs enables dynamic simulation of distinctive lifestyle change contributions to…
Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints
Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO 2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for emissions trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios to alternative scenarios with institutional, geophysical and technological feasibility constraints and enable…
Circular strategies for building sector decarbonization in China
The building sector in China is responsible for 40% of total energy‐related CO 2 emissions, driven by its large population, continuous economic growth, and construction boom. In addition to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy use, buildings drive significant emissions for construction activities and production of energy‐intensive materials, such as steel and cement. While supply‐side energy strategies have been extensively explored, a dema…
Income and inequality pathways consistent with eradicating poverty
To investigate concurrent climate action and poverty eradication, we present combined income growth (GDP/capita) and domestic income inequality (measured as Gini coefficients) pathways that pursue (absolute and relative) poverty eradication reflecting the three narratives of Sustainable Development Pathway. The GDP/capita pathways are modifications of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP1 scenario, including one post-growth future for high-income…
Multiple pathways towards sustainable development goals and climate targets
The UN sustainable development goals (SDGs) and the Paris climate target require a holistic transformation towards human well-being within planetary boundaries. However, there are growing debates on how to best pursue these targets. Proposed transformation strategies include market- and technology-driven green-growth, shifting towards a sufficiency-oriented post-growth economy, and a transformation driven primarily by strong government action. He…
Economics (23 obras) · Climate change (17 obras) · Climate Change Policy and Economics (17 obras) · Business (15 obras) · Environmental Science (15 obras) · Natural resource economics (14 obras) · Computer Science (13 obras) · Environmental economics (13 obras) · Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies (12 obras) · Ecology (11 obras)