Andrew Leigh
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 3581828 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Andrew Leigh |
| PRENOMES | Andrew |
| SOBRENOME | Leigh |
| ASSINATURA | LEIGH A |
| AFILIAÇÕES | Australian National University |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-5639-0509 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 45 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 158 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 45 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1977 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 7 |
A randomized field trial on motives for consulting with elected officials
Scholars know little about participation in consultative events such as town halls, and even less about newer modalities, such as telephone town halls. We study participation in such events with a large, randomized field trial in which Australian voters received varying invitations to a telephone town hall with their representative. In addition to invitations framed prospectively or retrospectively , a control condition provided no rationale for …
Leafy localities, longer lives
Using Numerical Anomalies to Test for Fraud in Colonial New South Wales Elections
When fabricating numbers, humans tend to make systematic errors, favouring some numerals over others. Analysing twenty‐first‐century elections in which fraud has been alleged, researchers have observed anomalous patterns in the last digits of vote counts. I show that vote counts for the 2022 Australian election exhibit no anomalies, and then turn attention to nineteenth‐century colonial elections in New South Wales. Pooling data for elections fro…
The best medicine
The Australian Government has established the Australian Centre for Evaluation, with a mandate to conduct rigorous evaluations, including randomised trials. This approach draws heavily on the transformation of medicine. During the 20th century, medicine evolved into a discipline that is largely driven by evidence from clinical trials. Drawing appropriate lessons from health has the potential to substantially improve the equity and effectiveness o…
Data and evaluation
Better data are fundamental to improving the effectiveness of policies. Drawing on examples from nutrition, education, criminal justice and income support, I discuss how data access has contributed to policy improvements. Data linkage across departments can also help ensure that policymakers are focussed on the right policy goals, rather than merely those that are easiest to measure. As governments increase the rigour of evaluation, quality data …
Advancing deliberative reform in a parliamentary system
Recent theories of democratic representation push beyond ‘minimalist’ notions that only rely on periodic elections to connect officials and constituents. For example, Jane Mansbridge (2019) calls for ‘recursive representation’, which seeks ongoing, two-way interaction between representatives and their constituents. Given the scale and complexity of modern representative democracies, how can such ambitious proposals be translated into practice? We…
Response to critique of
Our paper1 studies the impact of lockdowns in Australia on short-term mortality. Our study finds that, compared with the period 2015–2019, the standardised mortality rate in 2020–2021 fell by 5.9%. This finding is contrary to some (such as the authors of the Great Barrington Declaration) who had predicted that lockdowns policies would have devastating short-term effects.2 Our study goes on to analyse the reduction in Australian mortality rates by…
Political Gold
The partisan allocation of public funds has a long history in Australian politics. Using a unique dataset, which allows us to distinguish the merit-based component of the funding decision from the politically based component, we examine the 2018–2019 Australian sports grants scandal. We find that local funding allocations for sports infrastructure were directed disproportionately to win marginal electorates and to reward loyal supporters. However…
Understanding the impact of lockdowns on short-term excess mortality in Australia
During 2020 and 2021, Australia implemented relatively stringent government restrictions yet had few COVID-19 deaths. This provides an opportunity to understand the effects of lockdowns and quarantining restrictions on short-term mortality and to help provide evidence in understanding how such public health policies can impact on health. Our analysis is based on preliminary mortality data collected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Rates we…
What's the Worst That Could Happen
Why catastrophic risks are more dangerous than you think, and how populism makes them worse. Did you know that you're more likely to die from a catastrophe than in a car crash? The odds that a typical US resident will die from a catastrophic event—for example, nuclear war, bioterrorism, or out-of-control artificial intelligence—have been estimated at 1 in 6. That's fifteen times more likely than a fatal car crash and thirty-one times more likely …
This Time it’s Ideological
Thomas Piketty isn’t scared to tell a big story. In 2013, he produced Capital in the Twenty-First Century, a 700-page tome about inequality that combined Jane Austen and Honore de Balzac with data from tax returns and national statistics. One idea that captivated many readers was r versus g. When the rate of return on capital (think rental yields and share dividends) exceeds the overall economic growth rate, then inequality rises. When g is bigge…
Estimating Long‐Run Incarceration Rates for Australia, Canada, England and Wales, New Zealand, and the United States
Compiling data from dozens of archival sources, I assemble the most extensive series to date of the long‐run imprisonment rate for five English‐speaking nations: Australia, Canada, England and Wales, New Zealand, and the United States. These series are constructed as a share of adults rather than the entire population, and I discuss why the latter can be misleading. In the late‐nineteenth century, Australia had the highest incarceration rate of t…
Frontiers of mobility
There is longstanding pride among Australians that by throwing off the social class demarcations that defined their ossified colonial parent society, England, they created an open, socially mobile society. The paper tests this belief by estimating long run social mobility rates in Australia 1870–2017, using the status of rare surnames. The status information includes occupations from electoral rolls 1903–1980, and records of degrees awarded by Me…
Randomistas
A fascinating account of how radical researchers have used experiments to overturn conventional wisdom and shaped life as we know it Experiments have consistently been used in the hard sciences, but in recent decades social scientists have adopted the practice. Randomized trials have been used to design policies to increase educational attainment, lower crime rates, elevate employment rates, and improve living standards among the poor. This book …
Innovation + Equality
How to get more innovation and more equality. Is economic inequality the price we pay for innovation? The amazing technological advances of the last two decades—in such areas as artificial intelligence, genetics, and materials—have benefited society collectively and rewarded innovators handsomely: we get cool smartphones and technology moguls become billionaires. This contributes to a growing wealth gap; in the United States; the wealth controlle…
The Predictive Power of Political Pundits
Although Australian political pundits frequently make predictions about the future, little systematic evidence exists about the accuracy of these predictions. To assess the predictive power of experts, we survey the transcripts of two well-known political programs - Insiders and Meet the Press - and record all falsifiable forecasts. Looking at the three months prior to both the 2007 and 2010 federal elections, we are struck by the paucity of fals…
Does Ethnic Discrimination Vary Across Minority Groups? Evidence from a Field Experiment
We conduct a large‐scale field experiment to measure labour market discrimination in Australia, one quarter of whose population was born overseas. To denote ethnicity, we use distinctively Anglo‐Saxon, Indigenous, Italian, Chinese and Middle Eastern names. We compare multiple ethnic groups, rather than a single minority as in most other studies. In all cases we applied for entry‐level jobs and submitted a CV indicating that the candidate attended…
Top Incomes
This article deals with the issue of how high incomes have been changing over long time periods for many rich countries. Section 2 discusses the basic methodology used for creating recent top incomes estimates, and issues that arise about comparability across countries. Section 3 presents time trends for both Anglo–Saxon and non-Anglo–Saxon countries. Section 4 assesses top income shares against the standard axioms of inequality, and presents emp…
Informal care and labor market participation
Bias at the Ballot Box? Testing Whether Candidates' Gender Affects Their Vote
Objective. This study examines whether women's electoral fortunes in Australia have improved in line with changing social norms over the past century. We use new strategies to explore whether female candidates face discrimination by the voting public, or by political parties' preselection systems. Methods. Using data from all elections to the House of Representatives between 1903 and 2004, we examine the relationship between candidates' gender an…
More inequality, less social mobility
We investigate the relationship between inequality and intergenerational mobility. Proxying fathers' earnings with using detailed occupational data, we find that sons who grew up in countries that were more unequal in the 1970s were less likely to have experienced social mobility by the late-1990s.
Immigrants assimilate as communities, not just as individuals
Is voting skin-deep? Estimating the effect of candidate ballot photographs on election outcomes
Are Ballot Order Effects Heterogeneous
Objective. Past research on ballot order effects has typically focused on the average benefit a candidate receives if placed at the top of the ballot. This study addresses a gap in the literature by examining the possibility that a simple average may mask systematic differences in how the ballot order effect varies across candidates and voters. Methods. Using data from all Australian federal elections between 1984 and 2004, a sample that covers 1…
Do Gun Buy-backs Save Lives? Evidence from Time Series Variation
Three recent papers have examined the effect of a national tightening of firearm legislation and gun buy-back in Australia in 1996–1997 on firearm and non-firearm death rates. Despite analysing almost the same data, the three papers reach rather different conclusions. In this article, we highlight key methodological concerns with the papers. We also make some judgments as to the evidence on the effectiveness of the Australian legislation. Drawing…
How Closely Do Top Income Shares Track Other Measures of Inequality
In recent years, researchers have used taxation statistics to estimate the share of total income held by the richest groups, such as the top 10% or the top 1%. Compiling a standardised top income shares dataset for 13 developed countries, I find that there is a strong and significant relationship between top income shares and broader inequality measures, such as the Gini coefficient. This suggests that panel data on top income shares may be a use…
Are Ballot Order Effects Heterogeneous
Objective. Past research on ballot order effects has typically focused on the average benefit a candidate receives if placed at the top of the ballot. This study addresses a gap in the literature by examining the possibility that a simple average may mask systematic differences in how the ballot order effect varies across candidates and voters. Methods. Using data from all Australian federal elections between 1984 and 2004, a sample that covers 1…
Is voting skin-deep? Estimating the effect of candidate ballot photographs on election outcomes
Immigrants assimilate as communities, not just as individuals
Bringing home the bacon
Bias at the Ballot Box? Testing Whether Candidates' Gender Affects Their Vote
Objective. This study examines whether women's electoral fortunes in Australia have improved in line with changing social norms over the past century. We use new strategies to explore whether female candidates face discrimination by the voting public, or by political parties' preselection systems. Methods. Using data from all elections to the House of Representatives between 1903 and 2004, we examine the relationship between candidates' gender an…
Factions and Fractions
Over the past three decades, factions have cemented their hold over the Australian Labor Party. This has largely been due to the entrenchment of the proportional representation of factions. One of the effects of the institutionalisation of factions has been the development of factional sub-groupings ('fractions'). This article analyses the phenomenon by looking at a case study of a single ALP faction ‐ the Left in New South Wales. Since 1971, two…
How Do Unionists Vote? Estimating the Causal Impact of Union Membership on Voting Behaviour from 1966 to 2004
I explore the voting patterns of trade union members in Australian elections conducted between 1966 and 2004, and find that on average, 63 percent of trade union members vote for the Australian Labor Party. Despite the fact that union membership declined from around one-half of the workforce in the early-1980s to one-quarter of the workforce in the early-2000s, unionists have not become more pro-Labor. Analysing unionists’ voting behaviour by gen…
Three Tools for Forecasting Federal Elections
What is the best way to predict Australian federal election results? This article analyses three forecasting tools: opinion polls, economic models, and betting odds. Historically, we find that opinion polls taken close to the election are quite accurate, while economic models provide better medium-run forecasts. The November 2001 federal election largely follows this pattern, although the economic models provided more accurate projections than re…
Frontiers of mobility
There is longstanding pride among Australians that by throwing off the social class demarcations that defined their ossified colonial parent society, England, they created an open, socially mobile society. The paper tests this belief by estimating long run social mobility rates in Australia 1870–2017, using the status of rare surnames. The status information includes occupations from electoral rolls 1903–1980, and records of degrees awarded by Me…
Advancing deliberative reform in a parliamentary system
Recent theories of democratic representation push beyond ‘minimalist’ notions that only rely on periodic elections to connect officials and constituents. For example, Jane Mansbridge (2019) calls for ‘recursive representation’, which seeks ongoing, two-way interaction between representatives and their constituents. Given the scale and complexity of modern representative democracies, how can such ambitious proposals be translated into practice? We…
Thinking Ahead
The technique of strategic foresight — developing policy based on long‐run scenario planning — has much to offer Australian governments. By paying greater attention to identifying emerging issues, and drawing on a broad range of information sources, policies are more likely to prove durable and effective. Drawing on examples from the private sector, and from governments in the UK, USA and Australia, I outline what strategic planning entails, and …
Leadership and Aboriginal Reconciliation
Calls for greater leadership on the issue of Aboriginal reconciliation are often vague about what they actually mean by ‘leadership’. The most appropriate lens through which to regard leadership on the issue of reconciliation is not the usual notion of leadership‐as‐influence, but instead the theory of ‘adaptive leadership ’, developed by Harvard professor Ronald Heifetz. Applying these ideas to the problems of Aboriginal reconciliation, 1 propos…
Political Gold
The partisan allocation of public funds has a long history in Australian politics. Using a unique dataset, which allows us to distinguish the merit-based component of the funding decision from the politically based component, we examine the 2018–2019 Australian sports grants scandal. We find that local funding allocations for sports infrastructure were directed disproportionately to win marginal electorates and to reward loyal supporters. However…
Minding the shop
Does child gender affect marital status? Evidence from Australia
Behind the Bench
Policy research and reviewing services for under fives
The Work of Social Services Researchers and its impact on Social Policy
Researchers in the social services
1977). Researchers in the social services. Local Government Studies: Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 51-70
Policy research and reviewing services for under fives
Management information bulletins and social services managers
Analysing Management Training Needs in British Social Work
Youth and Street Racing
In terms of its perceived threat to society, street racing seems to have fallen somewhere between regular traffic offences and car theft. Yet it has little in common with either. So far as I am aware, street racing has not been analysed by previous writers. Thus, not surprisingly, most theories have little to offer such an analysis. The key argument made in this article is that the norms of street racers are those of the dominant culture. A desir…
Behind the Bench
Factions and Fractions
Over the past three decades, factions have cemented their hold over the Australian Labor Party. This has largely been due to the entrenchment of the proportional representation of factions. One of the effects of the institutionalisation of factions has been the development of factional sub-groupings ('fractions'). This article analyses the phenomenon by looking at a case study of a single ALP faction ‐ the Left in New South Wales. Since 1971, two…
Trade Liberalisation and the Australian Labor Party
The three most substantial decisions to reduce Australia’s trade barriers — in 1973, 1988 and 1991 — were made by Labor Governments. Labor’s policy shift preceded the conversion of social democratic parties in other countries to trade liberalisation. To understand why this was so, it is necessary to consider trade policy as being shaped by more than interest groups and political institutions. Drawing on interviews with the main political figures,…
Leadership and Aboriginal Reconciliation
Calls for greater leadership on the issue of Aboriginal reconciliation are often vague about what they actually mean by ‘leadership’. The most appropriate lens through which to regard leadership on the issue of reconciliation is not the usual notion of leadership‐as‐influence, but instead the theory of ‘adaptive leadership ’, developed by Harvard professor Ronald Heifetz. Applying these ideas to the problems of Aboriginal reconciliation, 1 propos…
Three Tools for Forecasting Federal Elections
What is the best way to predict Australian federal election results? This article analyses three forecasting tools: opinion polls, economic models, and betting odds. Historically, we find that opinion polls taken close to the election are quite accurate, while economic models provide better medium-run forecasts. The November 2001 federal election largely follows this pattern, although the economic models provided more accurate projections than re…
Customer-Oriented E-Government
E-govemment's next phase-a seamless, customer-oriented Web presence-faces more formidable barriers to development than did earlier advances. Progress toward customer-focused e-government requires fundamental organizational changes to existing bureaucracies, so that the government's Web presence can be comprehensive, efficient, and easy for citizens to use. To compel individual “stovepipe” agencies to develop a combined Web presence, chief informa…
Thinking Ahead
The technique of strategic foresight — developing policy based on long‐run scenario planning — has much to offer Australian governments. By paying greater attention to identifying emerging issues, and drawing on a broad range of information sources, policies are more likely to prove durable and effective. Drawing on examples from the private sector, and from governments in the UK, USA and Australia, I outline what strategic planning entails, and …
Reinvigorating the Australian Project
Trust, Inequality and Ethnic Heterogeneity
Using a large Australian social survey, combined with precise data on neighbourhood characteristics, I explore the factors that affect trust at a local level (‘localised trust’) and at a national level (‘generalised trust’). Trust is positively associated with the respondent's education, and negatively associated with the amount of time spent commuting. At a neighbourhood level, trust is higher in affluent areas, and lower in ethnically and lingu…
How Do Unionists Vote? Estimating the Causal Impact of Union Membership on Voting Behaviour from 1966 to 2004
I explore the voting patterns of trade union members in Australian elections conducted between 1966 and 2004, and find that on average, 63 percent of trade union members vote for the Australian Labor Party. Despite the fact that union membership declined from around one-half of the workforce in the early-1980s to one-quarter of the workforce in the early-2000s, unionists have not become more pro-Labor. Analysing unionists’ voting behaviour by gen…
Does child gender affect marital status? Evidence from Australia
How Closely Do Top Income Shares Track Other Measures of Inequality
In recent years, researchers have used taxation statistics to estimate the share of total income held by the richest groups, such as the top 10% or the top 1%. Compiling a standardised top income shares dataset for 13 developed countries, I find that there is a strong and significant relationship between top income shares and broader inequality measures, such as the Gini coefficient. This suggests that panel data on top income shares may be a use…
Minding the shop
Do Gun Buy-backs Save Lives? Evidence from Time Series Variation
Three recent papers have examined the effect of a national tightening of firearm legislation and gun buy-back in Australia in 1996–1997 on firearm and non-firearm death rates. Despite analysing almost the same data, the three papers reach rather different conclusions. In this article, we highlight key methodological concerns with the papers. We also make some judgments as to the evidence on the effectiveness of the Australian legislation. Drawing…
Bringing home the bacon
More inequality, less social mobility
We investigate the relationship between inequality and intergenerational mobility. Proxying fathers' earnings with using detailed occupational data, we find that sons who grew up in countries that were more unequal in the 1970s were less likely to have experienced social mobility by the late-1990s.
Immigrants assimilate as communities, not just as individuals
Is voting skin-deep? Estimating the effect of candidate ballot photographs on election outcomes
Are Ballot Order Effects Heterogeneous
Objective. Past research on ballot order effects has typically focused on the average benefit a candidate receives if placed at the top of the ballot. This study addresses a gap in the literature by examining the possibility that a simple average may mask systematic differences in how the ballot order effect varies across candidates and voters. Methods. Using data from all Australian federal elections between 1984 and 2004, a sample that covers 1…
Political science (32 obras) · Law (24 obras) · Economics (23 obras) · Sociology (20 obras) · Law (16 obras) · Computer Science (14 obras) · Demographic economics (12 obras) · Politics (11 obras) · Business (10 obras) · Demography (8 obras)