Michael Oppenheimer
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 3590339 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Michael Oppenheimer |
| PRENOMES | Michael |
| SOBRENOME | Oppenheimer |
| ASSINATURA | OPPENHEIMER M |
| AFILIAÇÕES | Princeton University |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-9708-5914 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 41 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 229 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 41 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2006 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 9 |
Sensitivity of tropical cyclone risk across the US to changes in storm climatology and socioeconomic growth
Tropical cyclone (TC) hazards coupled with dense urban development along the coastline have resulted in trillions in US damages over the past several decades, with an increasing trend in losses in recent years. So far, this trend has been driven by increasing coastal development. However, as the climate continues to warm, changing TC climatology may also cause large changes in coastal damages in the future. Approaches to quantifying regional TC r…
Retrenchment under climate-driven risks in subsistence farming communities
Increasing climate risks introduce new sources of uncertainty to smallholder farmers’ livelihood decisions. While farmers in different development contexts tend to accurately perceive long-term climatic trends, livelihood diversification as a climate resilience strategy has generally lagged behind awareness of climate risks. In this study, we investigate potential mechanisms behind this lagged response through a survey of 500 farming households i…
Cooperative food bank
Risks, such as climate change, disease outbreak, geopolitical tension, may exacerbate food insecurity by negatively impacting crop yield. Additional agricultural nitrogen input may partly offset yield losses, with a corresponding increase in nitrogen pollution. The problems of food insecurity and nitrogen pollution are urgent and global but have not been addressed in an integrated fashion. Current efforts to combat food insecurity occur primarily…
Socioeconomic distributional impacts of evaluating flood mitigation activities using equity-weighted benefit-cost analysis
As the global impact of climate change intensifies, there is an urgent need for equitable and efficient climate adaptation policies. Traditional approaches for allocating public resources for climate adaptation that are based on economic benefit-cost analysis often overlook the resulting distributional inequalities. In this study, we apply equity weightings to mitigate the distributional inequalities in two key building and household level adapta…
Prosocial preferences improve climate risk management in subsistence farming communities
The curve
Adapting to Climate Change
Climate change and resulting sea level rise will cause risk from coastal storms to increase throughout this century. Aggressive implementation of emissions reduction policies would significantly limit the risk, but in any event, planning for comprehensive adaptation is necessary. Past experience with long-term planning to reduce vulnerability and exposure along the coast shows a significant shortfall between the need to reduce risk and the implem…
Climate change increases resource-constrained international immobility
Complex climate and network effects on internal migration in South Africa revealed by a network model
Climate variability and climate change influence human migration both directly and indirectly through a variety of channels that are controlled by individual and household socioeconomic, cultural, and psychological processes as well as public policies and network effects. Characterizing and predicting migration flows are thus extremely complex and challenging. Among the quantitative methods available for predicting such flows is the widely used g…
Risk transfer policies and climate-induced immobility among smallholder farmers
Acting rapidly to deploy readily available methane mitigation measures by sector can immediately slow global warming
Methane mitigation is essential for addressing climate change, but the value of rapidly implementing available mitigation measures is not well understood. In this paper, we analyze the climate benefits of fast action to reduce methane emissions as compared to slower and delayed mitigation timelines. We find that the scale up and deployment of greatly underutilized but available mitigation measures will have significant near-term temperature benef…
Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100
To date, projections of human migration induced by sea-level change (SLC) largely suggest large-scale displacement away from vulnerable coastlines. However, results from our model of Bangladesh suggest counterintuitively that people will continue to migrate toward the vulnerable coastline irrespective of the flooding amplified by future SLC under all emissions scenarios until the end of this century. We developed an empirically calibrated agent-b…
Environmental integrity of emissions reductions depends on scale and systemic changes, not sector of origin
Values, Bias, and Stressors Affect Intentions to Adapt to Coastal Flood Risk
Sea level rise amplifies flooding from tides and storms for coastal communities around the globe. Although the characterization of these physical hazards has improved, it is people’s behavior that will ultimately determine the impact on communities. This study adds to our understanding of how people may respond to various adaptation options and policies, using a household survey in New York City, New York, neighborhoods affected by Hurricane Sand…
Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States
Costing out the effects of climate change Episodes of severe weather in the United States, such as the present abundance of rainfall in California, are brandished as tangible evidence of the future costs of current climate trends. Hsiang et al. collected national data documenting the responses in six economic sectors to short-term weather fluctuations. These data were integrated with probabilistic distributions from a set of global climate models…
IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks
Interactions between urban heat islands and heat waves
Heat waves (HWs) are among the most damaging climate extremes to human society. Climate models consistently project that HW frequency, severity, and duration will increase markedly over this century. For urban residents, the urban heat island (UHI) effect further exacerbates the heat stress resulting from HWs. Here we use a climate model to investigate the interactions between the UHI and HWs in 50 cities in the United States under current climat…
Amplification of flood frequencies with local sea level rise and emerging flood regimes
The amplification of flood frequencies by sea level rise (SLR) is expected to become one of the most economically damaging impacts of climate change for many coastal locations. Understanding the magnitude and pattern by which the frequency of current flood levels increase is important for developing more resilient coastal settlements, particularly since flood risk management (e.g. infrastructure, insurance, communications) is often tied to estima…
Climate variability and migration in the Philippines
This study investigates the effects of climatic variations and extremes captured by variability in temperature, precipitation, and incidents of typhoons on aggregate inter-provincial migration within the Philippines using panel data. Our results indicate that a rise in temperature and to some extent increased typhoon activity increase outmigration, while precipitation does not have a consistent, significant effect. We also find that temperature a…
Climate variability and international migration
Paris
The Paris Climate Agreement of December 2015 marks a decisive break from the unsuccessful Kyoto regime. Instead of targets and timetables, it established a Pledge and Review system, under which states will offer Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to reducing emissions that cause climate change. But this successful negotiation outcome was achieved at the price of vagueness of obligations and substantial discretion for governments. Many go…
The influence of climate variability on internal migration flows in South Africa
Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea‐level projections at a global network of tide‐gauge sites
The effectiveness of cool and green roofs as urban heat island mitigation strategies
Mitigation of the urban heat island (UHI) effect at the city-scale is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in conjunction with the Princeton Urban Canopy Model (PUCM). Specifically, the cooling impacts of green roof and cool (white/high-albedo) roof strategies over the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area during a heat wave period (7 June–10 June 2008) are assessed using the optimal set-up of WRF-PUCM described in…
On the Design of an International Governance Framework for Geoengineering
This paper explores the governance options surrounding geoengineering—the deliberate, large-scale manipulation of the Earth's climate system to counteract climate change. The authors focus solely on methods that affect the incoming solar radiation to the atmosphere, referred to as solar radiation management (SRM). They examine whether an international governance framework for SRM is needed, how it should be designed, and whether it is feasible. T…
Climate change prediction
The influence of climate variability on internal migration flows in South Africa
The rapid disintegration of projections
How and why did the scientific consensus about sea level rise due to the disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), expressed in the third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment, disintegrate on the road to the fourth? Using ethnographic interviews and analysis of IPCC documents, we trace the abrupt disintegration of the WAIS consensus. First, we provide a brief historical overview of scientific assessments of the…
Climate variability and migration in the Philippines
This study investigates the effects of climatic variations and extremes captured by variability in temperature, precipitation, and incidents of typhoons on aggregate inter-provincial migration within the Philippines using panel data. Our results indicate that a rise in temperature and to some extent increased typhoon activity increase outmigration, while precipitation does not have a consistent, significant effect. We also find that temperature a…
International migration desires related to subjective well-being
Previous research on the determinants of international migration has largely focused on objective factors, such as income. We instead use subjective well-being (SWB) to explain international migration desires, an expressed willingness to migrate. We find that individuals with higher SWB have lower international migration desires. At the individual level, the SWB-migration relationship appears to be more robust than the income-migration relationsh…
Paris
The Paris Climate Agreement of December 2015 marks a decisive break from the unsuccessful Kyoto regime. Instead of targets and timetables, it established a Pledge and Review system, under which states will offer Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to reducing emissions that cause climate change. But this successful negotiation outcome was achieved at the price of vagueness of obligations and substantial discretion for governments. Many go…
The ethics of scientific communication under uncertainty
Communication by scientists with policy makers and attentive publics raises ethical issues. Scientists need to decide how to communicate knowledge effectively in a way that nonscientists can understand and use, while remaining honest scientists and presenting estimates of the uncertainty of their inferences. They need to understand their own ethical choices in using scientific information to communicate to audiences. These issues were salient in …
The politics and policy of carbon capture and storage
On the Design of an International Governance Framework for Geoengineering
This paper explores the governance options surrounding geoengineering—the deliberate, large-scale manipulation of the Earth's climate system to counteract climate change. The authors focus solely on methods that affect the incoming solar radiation to the atmosphere, referred to as solar radiation management (SRM). They examine whether an international governance framework for SRM is needed, how it should be designed, and whether it is feasible. T…
Characterizing uncertainty in expert assessments
Large‐scale assessments have become an important vehicle for organizing, interpreting, and presenting scientific information relevant to environmental policy. At the same time, identifying and evaluating scientific uncertainty with respect to the very questions these assessments were designed to address has become more difficult, as ever more complex problems involving greater portions of the Earth system and longer timescales have emerged at the…
The boundaries of the thinkable
Learning and climate change
Learning – i.e., the acquisition of new information that leads to changes in our assessment of uncertainty – plays a prominent role in the international climate policy debate. For example, the view that we should postpone actions until we know more continues to be influential. The latest work on learning and climate change includes new theoretical models, better informed simulations of how learning affects the optimal timing of emissions reductio…
Science and Environmental Policy
Michael Oppenheimer Science and Environmental Policy: The Role of Nongovernmental Organizations THIS PAPER ADDRESSES THE ROLE OF NONGOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS, or NGOs, in the science-policy nexus. I shall draw on my 21 years ofexpe rience working for a nongovernm ental organization, Environm ental Defense, my earlier experience as a research scientist, and my recent experience as a professor, the latter two positions at large universities. I ho…
The regrets of procrastination in climate policy
Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are projected to impose economic costs due to the associated climate change impacts. Climate change impacts can be reduced by abating CO2 emissions. What would be an economically optimal investment in abating CO2 emissions? Economic models typically suggest that reducing CO2 emissions by roughly ten to twenty per cent relative to business-as-usual would be an economically optimal strategy. The currentl…
The boundaries of the thinkable
A Physical Science Perspective on Disaster
Michael Oppenheimer A Physical Science Perspective on Disaster: Through the Prism of Global Warming THE ISSUE OF DISASTER AND THE PROBLEM OF GLOBAL WARMING intersect strongly in four ways. First, lay understanding o f global w arm ing is frequently built from images of disastrous hurricanes, heat waves, floods, and other recent clim ate trends and w eather events. Second, some clim ate trends have been attributed in part to the atm o spheric acc…
Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “reasons for concern”
Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf . Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that “would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system.” In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be consi…
Toward ethical norms and institutions for climate engineering research
Climate engineering (CE), the intentional modification of the climate in order to reduce the effects of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, is sometimes touted as a potential response to climate change. Increasing interest in the topic has led to proposals for empirical tests of hypothesized CE techniques, which raise serious ethical concerns. We propose three ethical guidelines for CE researchers, derived from the ethics literature on rese…
Characterizing uncertainty in expert assessments
Large‐scale assessments have become an important vehicle for organizing, interpreting, and presenting scientific information relevant to environmental policy. At the same time, identifying and evaluating scientific uncertainty with respect to the very questions these assessments were designed to address has become more difficult, as ever more complex problems involving greater portions of the Earth system and longer timescales have emerged at the…
The politics and policy of carbon capture and storage
Summary for Policymakers
This Summary for Policymakers presents key findings from the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). The SREX approaches the topic by assessing the scientific literature on issues that range from the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events ("climate extremes") to the implications of these events for society and sustainable development. The…
Climate Change
Disaster signifies extreme impacts suffered when hazardous physical events interact with vulnerable social conditions to severely alter the normal functioning of a community or a society (high confidence). Social vulnerability and exposure are key determinants of disaster risk and help explain why non-extreme physical events and chronic hazards can also lead to extreme impacts and disasters, while some extreme events do not. Extreme impacts on hu…
Climate change prediction
The rapid disintegration of projections
How and why did the scientific consensus about sea level rise due to the disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), expressed in the third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment, disintegrate on the road to the fourth? Using ethnographic interviews and analysis of IPCC documents, we trace the abrupt disintegration of the WAIS consensus. First, we provide a brief historical overview of scientific assessments of the…
Social Norms and Global Environmental Challenges
Government policies are needed when people's behaviors fail to deliver the public good. Those policies will be most effective if they can stimulate long-term changes in beliefs and norms, creating and reinforcing the behaviors needed to solidify and extend the public good.It is often the short-term acceptability of potential policies, rather than their longer-term efficacy, that determines their scope and deployment. The policy process should con…
Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea‐level projections at a global network of tide‐gauge sites
The effectiveness of cool and green roofs as urban heat island mitigation strategies
Mitigation of the urban heat island (UHI) effect at the city-scale is investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in conjunction with the Princeton Urban Canopy Model (PUCM). Specifically, the cooling impacts of green roof and cool (white/high-albedo) roof strategies over the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area during a heat wave period (7 June–10 June 2008) are assessed using the optimal set-up of WRF-PUCM described in…
On the Design of an International Governance Framework for Geoengineering
This paper explores the governance options surrounding geoengineering—the deliberate, large-scale manipulation of the Earth's climate system to counteract climate change. The authors focus solely on methods that affect the incoming solar radiation to the atmosphere, referred to as solar radiation management (SRM). They examine whether an international governance framework for SRM is needed, how it should be designed, and whether it is feasible. T…
The ethics of scientific communication under uncertainty
Communication by scientists with policy makers and attentive publics raises ethical issues. Scientists need to decide how to communicate knowledge effectively in a way that nonscientists can understand and use, while remaining honest scientists and presenting estimates of the uncertainty of their inferences. They need to understand their own ethical choices in using scientific information to communicate to audiences. These issues were salient in …
International migration desires related to subjective well-being
Previous research on the determinants of international migration has largely focused on objective factors, such as income. We instead use subjective well-being (SWB) to explain international migration desires, an expressed willingness to migrate. We find that individuals with higher SWB have lower international migration desires. At the individual level, the SWB-migration relationship appears to be more robust than the income-migration relationsh…
Climate variability and international migration
Paris
The Paris Climate Agreement of December 2015 marks a decisive break from the unsuccessful Kyoto regime. Instead of targets and timetables, it established a Pledge and Review system, under which states will offer Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to reducing emissions that cause climate change. But this successful negotiation outcome was achieved at the price of vagueness of obligations and substantial discretion for governments. Many go…
The influence of climate variability on internal migration flows in South Africa
Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States
Costing out the effects of climate change Episodes of severe weather in the United States, such as the present abundance of rainfall in California, are brandished as tangible evidence of the future costs of current climate trends. Hsiang et al. collected national data documenting the responses in six economic sectors to short-term weather fluctuations. These data were integrated with probabilistic distributions from a set of global climate models…
IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks
Interactions between urban heat islands and heat waves
Heat waves (HWs) are among the most damaging climate extremes to human society. Climate models consistently project that HW frequency, severity, and duration will increase markedly over this century. For urban residents, the urban heat island (UHI) effect further exacerbates the heat stress resulting from HWs. Here we use a climate model to investigate the interactions between the UHI and HWs in 50 cities in the United States under current climat…
Climate change (31 obras) · Geography (27 obras) · Economics (25 obras) · Environmental Science (23 obras) · Ecology (17 obras) · Political science (16 obras) · Business (15 obras) · Natural resource economics (14 obras) · Environmental resource management (12 obras) · Meteorology (12 obras)