Guy Abel
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 3594669 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Guy Abel |
| PRENOMES | Guy |
| SOBRENOME | Abel |
| ASSINATURA | ABEL G |
| AFILIAÇÕES | International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-4893-5687 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 32 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 189 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 32 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2012 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 4 |
Integrating Traditional and Social Media Data to Predict Bilateral Migrant Stocks in the European Union
Although up-to-date information on the nature and extent of migration within the European Union (EU) is important for policymaking, timely and reliable statistics on the number of EU citizens residing in or moving across other member states are difficult to obtain. In this paper, we develop a statistical model that integrates data on EU migrant stocks using traditional sources such as census, population registers and Labour Force Survey, with nov…
International Migration and Development
This research note explores the impact of international migration on global population distribution since the 1990s. The impact of migration on population distribution is a function of both the intensity as well as the effectiveness of migration, that is the imbalance between flows and counter-flows. The presence of reciprocal flows is a well-recognized feature of international migration systems; however, this dimension has been difficult to capt…
The Globalization of International Migration? A Conceptual and Data-Driven Synthesis
Although the globalization of international migration is commonly accepted as a general tendency in contemporary migration patterns (de Haas, Castles, and Miller 2020, 9), the corresponding body of empirical evidence is mixed and fragmented. Our review of global migration patterns over the past half-century highlights how the theories, expectations, and ultimately findings may vary depending on the specific definitions, vantage points, and measur…
Drought and aridity influence internal migration worldwide
The Migration Intersections Grid
For this special issue of the International Migration Review, we develop and provide a comprehensive organizing framework, the Migration Intersections Grid (MIG), to inform and guide migration research in and through the remainder of the twenty-first century. We motivate our work by conducting a high-level scoping review of summaries and syntheses of different directions of travel in migration research over time. Informed by these results, we the…
A multidimensional global migration model for use in cohort-component population projections
BACKGROUNDInternational migration is influenced by economic and social factors that change over time.However, given the complexity of these relationships, global population scenarios to date include only stylized migration assumptions that do not account for changes in the drivers of migration.On the other hand, existing projection models of international migration do not resolve all demographic dimensions necessary to interact with the cohort-co…
Exploring Chinese human capital flight using university alumni data
China is one of the major sources of student migrants to many Western countries, growing rapidly during the last couple of decades. In China, several national and regional level policy schemes have been set up to incentivise the return of the high-skilled overseas population. Data to monitor these migration patterns are typically lacking. In this article, we explore the spatial patterns of overseas alumni populations from 106 leading Chinese univ…
Investigating the distribution of university alumni populations within South Korea and Taiwan based on data from the LinkedIn advertising platform
World's human migration patterns in 2000-2019 unveiled by high-resolution data
Despite being a topical issue in public debate and on the political agenda for many countries, a global-scale, high-resolution quantification of migration and its major drivers for the recent decades remained missing. We created a global dataset of annual net migration between 2000 and 2019 (~10 km grid, covering the areas of 216 countries or sovereign states), based on reported and downscaled subnational birth (2,555 administrative units) and de…
Brain Circulation
Closing disparities between European sending and receiving international migration flow data
Evidence-based policies to monitor and manage migration flows require accurate data. Data collection on international migration flow statistics is based on a range of data sources and measures. Discrepancies in reported migration flow data are apparent when comparing flow statistics from receiving countries on the number of arriving migrants by their country of origin with statistics from sending countries on the number of departing migrants by t…
The development of internal migration flow patterns in Japan
Population decline is expected to continue to be a prominent feature of Japanese demography in future decades. Internal migration plays a significant role in dictating the intensity of population decline at the regional level. In this paper we visualize inter-prefecture internal migration flows between the eight regions of Japan in 2020 using a chord diagram to show the relative scales of the origin–destination migration flows between each region…
Geographic transformation of China's internal population migration from 1995 to 2015
The form and evolution of international migration networks, 1990–2015
Presently, there is no agreed upon data-driven approach for identifying the geographic boundaries of migration networks that international migration systems are ultimately manifested in. Drawing from research on community detection methods, we introduce and apply the Information Theoretic Community Detection Algorithm for identifying and studying the geographic boundaries of migration networks. Using a new set of estimates of country-to-country m…
Commentary
Analyzing the Effect of Time in Migration Measurement Using Georeferenced Digital Trace Data
Georeferenced digital trace data offer unprecedented flexibility in migration estimation. Because of their high temporal granularity, many migration estimates can be generated from the same data set by changing the definition parameters. Yet despite the growing application of digital trace data to migration research, strategies for taking advantage of their temporal granularity remain largely underdeveloped. In this paper, we provide a general fr…
Temporal and spatial characteristics of population migration in China from 1995 to 2015
Based on the census data, this paper estimates the O-D migration flow and migration rate between prefectures (cities) in China from 1995 to 2015. Applying the methods of GIS spatial analysis and social network analysis, this paper reveals the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of population migration in China in the past 20 years. It is found that: (a) China’s population migration has gradually moved from a relatively inactive “low ac…
International remittance flows and the economic and social consequences of Covid-19
One of the possible consequences of the tightening of international borders during and after pandemic COVID-19 is what the World Economic Forum refers to as the 'throttling' of international (labour) migration. While this will have a profound macroeconomic impact on the global economy, the potential impact on remittances on families, communities and national economies could be equally marked. We present a chord diagram to visualize the latest int…
Driving factors of Asian international migration flows
Migration from, to and within Asia are believed to capture many of the largest flows in the world yet very little is known about the specific patterns and factors contributing to them. In this paper, utilising recent estimates of five-year bilateral migration flows for all countries in the world, we focus on understanding how demographic, geographic and socio-economic factors are related to the size of bilateral flows in Asia. We conduct our anal…
Climate, conflict and forced migration
Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006–2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to …
Bowling Together
Estimates of Global Bilateral Migration Flows by Gender between 1960 and 2015 1
An indirect estimation method is used to derive country to country migration flows from changes in global bilateral stock data. Estimates are obtained over five- and 10-year periods between 1960 and 2015 by gender, providing a comprehensive picture of past migration patterns. The estimated total of global international migrant flows generally increases over the 55-year time frame. The global rate of migration over five- and 10-year periods fluctu…
Estimates of Global Bilateral Migration Flows by Gender between 1960 and 2015 1
Internal migration in Brazil using circular visualization
In Brazil – a developing country and one that in its last census in 2010 presented a number of five-year interstate migrations of approximately 4.6 million people – the study of internal migration is a complex exercise given the size and diversity of the country. We adapted the chord diagram plot to visualize the bilateral interstate migration flows in Brazil over a five-year period of 2005–10, and the migration stocks in Brazil in 2010. The bila…
Changing internal migration flows patterns in South Korea
In comparison with other developed nations, there is a relative lack of analyses on internal migration flow in South Korea. During the last 50 years, the country has witnessed distinct changes in both the levels and patterns of internal migration. Traditionally, the faster developing north-west administrative units (Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi regions) have accounted for the majority of in-migration. However, since 2011, internal migration in Kor…
Climate, conflict and forced migration
Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006–2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to …
Estimating global migration flow tables using place of birth data
International migration flow data often lack adequate measurements of volume, direction and completeness. These pitfalls limit empirical comparative studies of migration and cross national population projections to use net migration measures or inadequat
Analyzing the Effect of Time in Migration Measurement Using Georeferenced Digital Trace Data
Georeferenced digital trace data offer unprecedented flexibility in migration estimation. Because of their high temporal granularity, many migration estimates can be generated from the same data set by changing the definition parameters. Yet despite the growing application of digital trace data to migration research, strategies for taking advantage of their temporal granularity remain largely underdeveloped. In this paper, we provide a general fr…
Estimates of Global Bilateral Migration Flows by Gender between 1960 and 2015 1
An indirect estimation method is used to derive country to country migration flows from changes in global bilateral stock data. Estimates are obtained over five- and 10-year periods between 1960 and 2015 by gender, providing a comprehensive picture of past migration patterns. The estimated total of global international migrant flows generally increases over the 55-year time frame. The global rate of migration over five- and 10-year periods fluctu…
International Migration and Development
This research note explores the impact of international migration on global population distribution since the 1990s. The impact of migration on population distribution is a function of both the intensity as well as the effectiveness of migration, that is the imbalance between flows and counter-flows. The presence of reciprocal flows is a well-recognized feature of international migration systems; however, this dimension has been difficult to capt…
The Migration Intersections Grid
For this special issue of the International Migration Review, we develop and provide a comprehensive organizing framework, the Migration Intersections Grid (MIG), to inform and guide migration research in and through the remainder of the twenty-first century. We motivate our work by conducting a high-level scoping review of summaries and syntheses of different directions of travel in migration research over time. Informed by these results, we the…
World's human migration patterns in 2000-2019 unveiled by high-resolution data
Despite being a topical issue in public debate and on the political agenda for many countries, a global-scale, high-resolution quantification of migration and its major drivers for the recent decades remained missing. We created a global dataset of annual net migration between 2000 and 2019 (~10 km grid, covering the areas of 216 countries or sovereign states), based on reported and downscaled subnational birth (2,555 administrative units) and de…
Brain Circulation
Driving factors of Asian international migration flows
Migration from, to and within Asia are believed to capture many of the largest flows in the world yet very little is known about the specific patterns and factors contributing to them. In this paper, utilising recent estimates of five-year bilateral migration flows for all countries in the world, we focus on understanding how demographic, geographic and socio-economic factors are related to the size of bilateral flows in Asia. We conduct our anal…
Non-zero trajectories for long-run net migration assumptions in global population projection models
Little attention is given to the role of migration in global population projection models. Most demographers set future levels of net migration on trajectories towards zero in all countries, nullifying the impact of migration on long-run projected populati
Does Specification Matter? Experiments with Simple Multiregional Probabilistic Population Projections
Population projection models that introduce uncertainty are a growing subset of projection models in general. In this paper we focus on the importance of decisions made with regard to the model specifications adopted. We compare the forecasts and prediction intervals associated with four simple regional population projection models: an overall growth rate model, a component model with net migration, a component model with in-migration and out-mig…
The form and evolution of international migration networks, 1990–2015
Presently, there is no agreed upon data-driven approach for identifying the geographic boundaries of migration networks that international migration systems are ultimately manifested in. Drawing from research on community detection methods, we introduce and apply the Information Theoretic Community Detection Algorithm for identifying and studying the geographic boundaries of migration networks. Using a new set of estimates of country-to-country m…
Estimates of Global Bilateral Migration Flows by Gender between 1960 and 2015 1
Circular visualization of China's internal migration flows 2010-2015
We adapted the chord diagram plot to visualize China's recent inter-provincial migration during 2010-2015. The arrowheads were added to present the direction of the flows. This method allows us to show the complete migration flows between 31 provinces in China including the direction and volume of the flows. The spatial component was also clearly depicted in the plot using four color palates representing four regions in China (i.e. East, Center, …
Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom
Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts
Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model
Integrating Traditional and Social Media Data to Predict Bilateral Migrant Stocks in the European Union
Although up-to-date information on the nature and extent of migration within the European Union (EU) is important for policymaking, timely and reliable statistics on the number of EU citizens residing in or moving across other member states are difficult to obtain. In this paper, we develop a statistical model that integrates data on EU migrant stocks using traditional sources such as census, population registers and Labour Force Survey, with nov…
Exploring Chinese human capital flight using university alumni data
China is one of the major sources of student migrants to many Western countries, growing rapidly during the last couple of decades. In China, several national and regional level policy schemes have been set up to incentivise the return of the high-skilled overseas population. Data to monitor these migration patterns are typically lacking. In this article, we explore the spatial patterns of overseas alumni populations from 106 leading Chinese univ…
Investigating the distribution of university alumni populations within South Korea and Taiwan based on data from the LinkedIn advertising platform
The development of internal migration flow patterns in Japan
Population decline is expected to continue to be a prominent feature of Japanese demography in future decades. Internal migration plays a significant role in dictating the intensity of population decline at the regional level. In this paper we visualize inter-prefecture internal migration flows between the eight regions of Japan in 2020 using a chord diagram to show the relative scales of the origin–destination migration flows between each region…
Changing internal migration flows patterns in South Korea
In comparison with other developed nations, there is a relative lack of analyses on internal migration flow in South Korea. During the last 50 years, the country has witnessed distinct changes in both the levels and patterns of internal migration. Traditionally, the faster developing north-west administrative units (Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi regions) have accounted for the majority of in-migration. However, since 2011, internal migration in Kor…
A multidimensional global migration model for use in cohort-component population projections
BACKGROUNDInternational migration is influenced by economic and social factors that change over time.However, given the complexity of these relationships, global population scenarios to date include only stylized migration assumptions that do not account for changes in the drivers of migration.On the other hand, existing projection models of international migration do not resolve all demographic dimensions necessary to interact with the cohort-co…
Closing disparities between European sending and receiving international migration flow data
Evidence-based policies to monitor and manage migration flows require accurate data. Data collection on international migration flow statistics is based on a range of data sources and measures. Discrepancies in reported migration flow data are apparent when comparing flow statistics from receiving countries on the number of arriving migrants by their country of origin with statistics from sending countries on the number of departing migrants by t…
Commentary
International remittance flows and the economic and social consequences of Covid-19
One of the possible consequences of the tightening of international borders during and after pandemic COVID-19 is what the World Economic Forum refers to as the 'throttling' of international (labour) migration. While this will have a profound macroeconomic impact on the global economy, the potential impact on remittances on families, communities and national economies could be equally marked. We present a chord diagram to visualize the latest int…
Does Specification Matter? Experiments with Simple Multiregional Probabilistic Population Projections
Population projection models that introduce uncertainty are a growing subset of projection models in general. In this paper we focus on the importance of decisions made with regard to the model specifications adopted. We compare the forecasts and prediction intervals associated with four simple regional population projection models: an overall growth rate model, a component model with net migration, a component model with in-migration and out-mig…
Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom
Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts
Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model
Estimating global migration flow tables using place of birth data
International migration flow data often lack adequate measurements of volume, direction and completeness. These pitfalls limit empirical comparative studies of migration and cross national population projections to use net migration measures or inadequat
Circular visualization of China's internal migration flows 2010-2015
We adapted the chord diagram plot to visualize China's recent inter-provincial migration during 2010-2015. The arrowheads were added to present the direction of the flows. This method allows us to show the complete migration flows between 31 provinces in China including the direction and volume of the flows. The spatial component was also clearly depicted in the plot using four color palates representing four regions in China (i.e. East, Center, …
Estimates of Global Bilateral Migration Flows by Gender between 1960 and 2015 1
An indirect estimation method is used to derive country to country migration flows from changes in global bilateral stock data. Estimates are obtained over five- and 10-year periods between 1960 and 2015 by gender, providing a comprehensive picture of past migration patterns. The estimated total of global international migrant flows generally increases over the 55-year time frame. The global rate of migration over five- and 10-year periods fluctu…
Estimates of Global Bilateral Migration Flows by Gender between 1960 and 2015 1
Internal migration in Brazil using circular visualization
In Brazil – a developing country and one that in its last census in 2010 presented a number of five-year interstate migrations of approximately 4.6 million people – the study of internal migration is a complex exercise given the size and diversity of the country. We adapted the chord diagram plot to visualize the bilateral interstate migration flows in Brazil over a five-year period of 2005–10, and the migration stocks in Brazil in 2010. The bila…
Changing internal migration flows patterns in South Korea
In comparison with other developed nations, there is a relative lack of analyses on internal migration flow in South Korea. During the last 50 years, the country has witnessed distinct changes in both the levels and patterns of internal migration. Traditionally, the faster developing north-west administrative units (Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi regions) have accounted for the majority of in-migration. However, since 2011, internal migration in Kor…
Subnational gender balances in South Korea
Within one generation, the South Korean economy developed from one of the poorest countries in the world during the 1950s to a developed, high-income country by the end of the 1990s. During the latter part of this period, South Korea (hereafter called Korea) experienced rapid demographic change characterized by a steep decline in fertility levels and abnormally high sex ratios at birth. Unlike other East and South-East Asian countries that underw…
Non-zero trajectories for long-run net migration assumptions in global population projection models
Little attention is given to the role of migration in global population projection models. Most demographers set future levels of net migration on trajectories towards zero in all countries, nullifying the impact of migration on long-run projected populati
Driving factors of Asian international migration flows
Migration from, to and within Asia are believed to capture many of the largest flows in the world yet very little is known about the specific patterns and factors contributing to them. In this paper, utilising recent estimates of five-year bilateral migration flows for all countries in the world, we focus on understanding how demographic, geographic and socio-economic factors are related to the size of bilateral flows in Asia. We conduct our anal…
Climate, conflict and forced migration
Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006–2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to …
Bowling Together
International remittance flows and the economic and social consequences of Covid-19
One of the possible consequences of the tightening of international borders during and after pandemic COVID-19 is what the World Economic Forum refers to as the 'throttling' of international (labour) migration. While this will have a profound macroeconomic impact on the global economy, the potential impact on remittances on families, communities and national economies could be equally marked. We present a chord diagram to visualize the latest int…
Geographic transformation of China's internal population migration from 1995 to 2015
The form and evolution of international migration networks, 1990–2015
Presently, there is no agreed upon data-driven approach for identifying the geographic boundaries of migration networks that international migration systems are ultimately manifested in. Drawing from research on community detection methods, we introduce and apply the Information Theoretic Community Detection Algorithm for identifying and studying the geographic boundaries of migration networks. Using a new set of estimates of country-to-country m…
Commentary
Analyzing the Effect of Time in Migration Measurement Using Georeferenced Digital Trace Data
Georeferenced digital trace data offer unprecedented flexibility in migration estimation. Because of their high temporal granularity, many migration estimates can be generated from the same data set by changing the definition parameters. Yet despite the growing application of digital trace data to migration research, strategies for taking advantage of their temporal granularity remain largely underdeveloped. In this paper, we provide a general fr…
Temporal and spatial characteristics of population migration in China from 1995 to 2015
Based on the census data, this paper estimates the O-D migration flow and migration rate between prefectures (cities) in China from 1995 to 2015. Applying the methods of GIS spatial analysis and social network analysis, this paper reveals the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of population migration in China in the past 20 years. It is found that: (a) China’s population migration has gradually moved from a relatively inactive “low ac…
Brain Circulation
Closing disparities between European sending and receiving international migration flow data
Evidence-based policies to monitor and manage migration flows require accurate data. Data collection on international migration flow statistics is based on a range of data sources and measures. Discrepancies in reported migration flow data are apparent when comparing flow statistics from receiving countries on the number of arriving migrants by their country of origin with statistics from sending countries on the number of departing migrants by t…
The development of internal migration flow patterns in Japan
Population decline is expected to continue to be a prominent feature of Japanese demography in future decades. Internal migration plays a significant role in dictating the intensity of population decline at the regional level. In this paper we visualize inter-prefecture internal migration flows between the eight regions of Japan in 2020 using a chord diagram to show the relative scales of the origin–destination migration flows between each region…
Exploring Chinese human capital flight using university alumni data
China is one of the major sources of student migrants to many Western countries, growing rapidly during the last couple of decades. In China, several national and regional level policy schemes have been set up to incentivise the return of the high-skilled overseas population. Data to monitor these migration patterns are typically lacking. In this article, we explore the spatial patterns of overseas alumni populations from 106 leading Chinese univ…
Investigating the distribution of university alumni populations within South Korea and Taiwan based on data from the LinkedIn advertising platform
Geography (26 obras) · Demography (21 obras) · Economics (20 obras) · Migration and Labor Dynamics (20 obras) · Population (20 obras) · Sociology (17 obras) · Economic geography (13 obras) · Demography (12 obras) · Political science (12 obras) · Computer Science (11 obras)