Kevin A Clarke
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 3627745 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Kevin A Clarke |
| PRENOMES | Kevin A |
| SOBRENOME | Clarke |
| ASSINATURA | CLARKE K A |
| AFILIAÇÕES | University of Rochester |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-8818-5497 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 15 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 351 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 15 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2001 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2020 |
| ÍNDICE H | 9 |
Logical Constraints
Researchers employing qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) and its variants use two-element Boolean algebra to compare cases and identify putative causal conditions. I show that the two-element Boolean algebra constrains research in three important ways: it restricts what we can say about sets and the interactions between sets, it embodies a logical language that is too weak to capture modern social science theories, and it restricts our analys…
Omitted Variables, Countervailing Effects, and the Possibility of Overadjustment
The effect of conditioning on an additional covariate on confounding bias depends, in part, on covariates that are unobserved. We characterize the conditions under which the interaction between a covariate that is available for conditioning and one that is not can affect bias. When the confounding effects of two covariates, one of which is observed, are countervailing (in opposite directions), conditioning on the observed covariate can increase b…
A Model DisciplinePolitical Science and the Logic of Representations
Models are ubiquitous in political science research. Although game theory models, statistical models, and even non-mathematical models are common in the discipline, the field lacks a coherent foundation for understanding the role models play in scientific inquiry. In A Model Discipline, Kevin Clarke and David Primo challenge the conventional wisdom that theoretical models must be tested by statistical models in order to be useful, and they provid…
A Model Discipline
Models have come to be the dominant feature of modern political science and can be found in every corner of the field. Despite this ubiquity, most political scientists know very little about models, their properties, or how to think about models in a rigorous fashion, all despite the fact that political scientists are highly skilled at model construction. This chapter introduces the model-based view of science that is advocated in this book. It i…
A model discipline
Political scientists use models to investigate and illuminate causal mechanisms, generate comparative data, and more. But how do we justify and rationalize the method? Why test predictions from a deductive, and thus truth-preserving, system? Primo and Clarke tackle these central questions in this novel work of methodology.
Discriminating Methods
We consider the problem of choosing between rival statistical models that are non-nested in terms of their functional forms. We assess the ability of two tests, one parametric and one distribution-free, to discriminate between such models. Our Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that both tests are, to varying degrees, able to discriminate between strategic and non-strategic discrete choice models. The distribution-free test appears to have great…
Return of the Phantom Menace
Scholars often assume that the danger posed by omitted variable bias can be ameliorated by the inclusion of large numbers of relevant control variables. However, there is nothing in the mathematics of regression analysis that supports this conclusion. This paper goes beyond textbook treatments of omitted variable bias and shows, both for OLS and for generalized linear models, that the inclusion of additional control variables may increase or decr…
Democracy and the Logic of Political Survival
Although democracy is a key concept in political science, debate continues over definitions and mechanisms. Bueno de Mesquita, Smith, Siverson, & Morrow (2003) make the important claim that most of democracy's effects are in fact due to something conceptually simpler and empirically easier to measure than democracy: the size of the minimum winning coalition that selects the leader. The argument is intuitively appealing and supported by extensive …
A Simple Distribution-Free Test for Nonnested Model Selection
This paper considers a simple distribution-free test for nonnested model selection. The new test is shown to be asymptotically more efficient than the well-known Vuong test when the distribution of individual log-likelihood ratios is highly peaked. Monte Carlo results demonstrate that for many applied research situations, this distribution is indeed highly peaked. The simulation further demonstrates that the proposed test has greater power than t…
Modernizing Political Science
Although the use of models has come to dominate much of the scientific study of politics, the discipline's understanding of the role or function that models play in the scientific enterprise has not kept pace. We argue that models should be assessed for their usefulness for a particular purpose, not solely for the accuracy of their predictions. We provide a typology of the uses to which models may be put, and show how these uses are obscured by t…
The Necessity of Being Comparative
The aim of this article is to demonstrate that comparative theory testing is necessary if political scientists wish to make positive statements regarding the confirmation of their theories. Using the tools of formal logic, the author first establishes that theory confirmation is not possible when a theory is tested in isolation, regardless of the statistical approach—falsificationism, confirmationism, or Bayesian confirmationism—employed by the r…
The Phantom Menace
Quantitative political science is awash in control variables. The justification for these bloated specifications is usually the fear of omitted variable bias. A key underlying assumption is that the danger posed by omitted variable bias can be ameliorated by the inclusion of relevant control variables. Unfortunately, as this article demonstrates, there is nothing in the mathematics of regression analysis that supports this conclusion. The inclusi…
Nonparametric Model Discrimination in International Relations
This study introduces a simple nonparametric test for the relative discrimination of models in international relations research. The common parametric approach, the Vuong test, does not perform well under the small-n, high canonical correlation conditions that are sometimes encountered in world politics research. The nonparametric approach outperforms the Vuong test in Monte Carlo experiments and is trivial to implement even for the most complica…
The Reverend and the Ravens
The purpose of this Comment is to put the current debate regarding testing necessary conditions into perspective and to point out a particularly troubling aspect of the “all cases” research design (Seawright 2002).Prior to the recent spate of books and articles in the social sciences (Ragin 1987; Dion 1988; Braumoeller and Goertz 2000), the debate over the testing or the confirmation of necessary conditions took place in the philosophical literat…
Testing Nonnested Models of International Relations
Earlier versions of this paper have been presented at the annual meetings of the American Political Science Association in Boston, MA (1998) and in Atlanta, GA (1999), and at the annual meetings of the Society for Political Methodology in San Diego, CA (1998) and in College Station, TX (1999); I thank the participants for their comments. I also thank John Jackson, Paul Huth, Bob Pahre, Susan Murphy, Laura Koehly, Ed Czilli, and several anonymous …
The Phantom Menace
Quantitative political science is awash in control variables. The justification for these bloated specifications is usually the fear of omitted variable bias. A key underlying assumption is that the danger posed by omitted variable bias can be ameliorated by the inclusion of relevant control variables. Unfortunately, as this article demonstrates, there is nothing in the mathematics of regression analysis that supports this conclusion. The inclusi…
Testing Nonnested Models of International Relations
Earlier versions of this paper have been presented at the annual meetings of the American Political Science Association in Boston, MA (1998) and in Atlanta, GA (1999), and at the annual meetings of the Society for Political Methodology in San Diego, CA (1998) and in College Station, TX (1999); I thank the participants for their comments. I also thank John Jackson, Paul Huth, Bob Pahre, Susan Murphy, Laura Koehly, Ed Czilli, and several anonymous …
Return of the Phantom Menace
Scholars often assume that the danger posed by omitted variable bias can be ameliorated by the inclusion of large numbers of relevant control variables. However, there is nothing in the mathematics of regression analysis that supports this conclusion. This paper goes beyond textbook treatments of omitted variable bias and shows, both for OLS and for generalized linear models, that the inclusion of additional control variables may increase or decr…
A Simple Distribution-Free Test for Nonnested Model Selection
This paper considers a simple distribution-free test for nonnested model selection. The new test is shown to be asymptotically more efficient than the well-known Vuong test when the distribution of individual log-likelihood ratios is highly peaked. Monte Carlo results demonstrate that for many applied research situations, this distribution is indeed highly peaked. The simulation further demonstrates that the proposed test has greater power than t…
Democracy and the Logic of Political Survival
Although democracy is a key concept in political science, debate continues over definitions and mechanisms. Bueno de Mesquita, Smith, Siverson, & Morrow (2003) make the important claim that most of democracy's effects are in fact due to something conceptually simpler and empirically easier to measure than democracy: the size of the minimum winning coalition that selects the leader. The argument is intuitively appealing and supported by extensive …
Modernizing Political Science
Although the use of models has come to dominate much of the scientific study of politics, the discipline's understanding of the role or function that models play in the scientific enterprise has not kept pace. We argue that models should be assessed for their usefulness for a particular purpose, not solely for the accuracy of their predictions. We provide a typology of the uses to which models may be put, and show how these uses are obscured by t…
Nonparametric Model Discrimination in International Relations
This study introduces a simple nonparametric test for the relative discrimination of models in international relations research. The common parametric approach, the Vuong test, does not perform well under the small-n, high canonical correlation conditions that are sometimes encountered in world politics research. The nonparametric approach outperforms the Vuong test in Monte Carlo experiments and is trivial to implement even for the most complica…
The Necessity of Being Comparative
The aim of this article is to demonstrate that comparative theory testing is necessary if political scientists wish to make positive statements regarding the confirmation of their theories. Using the tools of formal logic, the author first establishes that theory confirmation is not possible when a theory is tested in isolation, regardless of the statistical approach—falsificationism, confirmationism, or Bayesian confirmationism—employed by the r…
The Reverend and the Ravens
The purpose of this Comment is to put the current debate regarding testing necessary conditions into perspective and to point out a particularly troubling aspect of the “all cases” research design (Seawright 2002).Prior to the recent spate of books and articles in the social sciences (Ragin 1987; Dion 1988; Braumoeller and Goertz 2000), the debate over the testing or the confirmation of necessary conditions took place in the philosophical literat…
Logical Constraints
Researchers employing qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) and its variants use two-element Boolean algebra to compare cases and identify putative causal conditions. I show that the two-element Boolean algebra constrains research in three important ways: it restricts what we can say about sets and the interactions between sets, it embodies a logical language that is too weak to capture modern social science theories, and it restricts our analys…
Omitted Variables, Countervailing Effects, and the Possibility of Overadjustment
The effect of conditioning on an additional covariate on confounding bias depends, in part, on covariates that are unobserved. We characterize the conditions under which the interaction between a covariate that is available for conditioning and one that is not can affect bias. When the confounding effects of two covariates, one of which is observed, are countervailing (in opposite directions), conditioning on the observed covariate can increase b…
Discriminating Methods
We consider the problem of choosing between rival statistical models that are non-nested in terms of their functional forms. We assess the ability of two tests, one parametric and one distribution-free, to discriminate between such models. Our Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that both tests are, to varying degrees, able to discriminate between strategic and non-strategic discrete choice models. The distribution-free test appears to have great…
Testing Nonnested Models of International Relations
Earlier versions of this paper have been presented at the annual meetings of the American Political Science Association in Boston, MA (1998) and in Atlanta, GA (1999), and at the annual meetings of the Society for Political Methodology in San Diego, CA (1998) and in College Station, TX (1999); I thank the participants for their comments. I also thank John Jackson, Paul Huth, Bob Pahre, Susan Murphy, Laura Koehly, Ed Czilli, and several anonymous …
The Reverend and the Ravens
The purpose of this Comment is to put the current debate regarding testing necessary conditions into perspective and to point out a particularly troubling aspect of the “all cases” research design (Seawright 2002).Prior to the recent spate of books and articles in the social sciences (Ragin 1987; Dion 1988; Braumoeller and Goertz 2000), the debate over the testing or the confirmation of necessary conditions took place in the philosophical literat…
Nonparametric Model Discrimination in International Relations
This study introduces a simple nonparametric test for the relative discrimination of models in international relations research. The common parametric approach, the Vuong test, does not perform well under the small-n, high canonical correlation conditions that are sometimes encountered in world politics research. The nonparametric approach outperforms the Vuong test in Monte Carlo experiments and is trivial to implement even for the most complica…
The Phantom Menace
Quantitative political science is awash in control variables. The justification for these bloated specifications is usually the fear of omitted variable bias. A key underlying assumption is that the danger posed by omitted variable bias can be ameliorated by the inclusion of relevant control variables. Unfortunately, as this article demonstrates, there is nothing in the mathematics of regression analysis that supports this conclusion. The inclusi…
A Simple Distribution-Free Test for Nonnested Model Selection
This paper considers a simple distribution-free test for nonnested model selection. The new test is shown to be asymptotically more efficient than the well-known Vuong test when the distribution of individual log-likelihood ratios is highly peaked. Monte Carlo results demonstrate that for many applied research situations, this distribution is indeed highly peaked. The simulation further demonstrates that the proposed test has greater power than t…
Modernizing Political Science
Although the use of models has come to dominate much of the scientific study of politics, the discipline's understanding of the role or function that models play in the scientific enterprise has not kept pace. We argue that models should be assessed for their usefulness for a particular purpose, not solely for the accuracy of their predictions. We provide a typology of the uses to which models may be put, and show how these uses are obscured by t…
The Necessity of Being Comparative
The aim of this article is to demonstrate that comparative theory testing is necessary if political scientists wish to make positive statements regarding the confirmation of their theories. Using the tools of formal logic, the author first establishes that theory confirmation is not possible when a theory is tested in isolation, regardless of the statistical approach—falsificationism, confirmationism, or Bayesian confirmationism—employed by the r…
Democracy and the Logic of Political Survival
Although democracy is a key concept in political science, debate continues over definitions and mechanisms. Bueno de Mesquita, Smith, Siverson, & Morrow (2003) make the important claim that most of democracy's effects are in fact due to something conceptually simpler and empirically easier to measure than democracy: the size of the minimum winning coalition that selects the leader. The argument is intuitively appealing and supported by extensive …
Return of the Phantom Menace
Scholars often assume that the danger posed by omitted variable bias can be ameliorated by the inclusion of large numbers of relevant control variables. However, there is nothing in the mathematics of regression analysis that supports this conclusion. This paper goes beyond textbook treatments of omitted variable bias and shows, both for OLS and for generalized linear models, that the inclusion of additional control variables may increase or decr…
Discriminating Methods
We consider the problem of choosing between rival statistical models that are non-nested in terms of their functional forms. We assess the ability of two tests, one parametric and one distribution-free, to discriminate between such models. Our Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that both tests are, to varying degrees, able to discriminate between strategic and non-strategic discrete choice models. The distribution-free test appears to have great…
A model discipline
Political scientists use models to investigate and illuminate causal mechanisms, generate comparative data, and more. But how do we justify and rationalize the method? Why test predictions from a deductive, and thus truth-preserving, system? Primo and Clarke tackle these central questions in this novel work of methodology.
A Model DisciplinePolitical Science and the Logic of Representations
Models are ubiquitous in political science research. Although game theory models, statistical models, and even non-mathematical models are common in the discipline, the field lacks a coherent foundation for understanding the role models play in scientific inquiry. In A Model Discipline, Kevin Clarke and David Primo challenge the conventional wisdom that theoretical models must be tested by statistical models in order to be useful, and they provid…
A Model Discipline
Models have come to be the dominant feature of modern political science and can be found in every corner of the field. Despite this ubiquity, most political scientists know very little about models, their properties, or how to think about models in a rigorous fashion, all despite the fact that political scientists are highly skilled at model construction. This chapter introduces the model-based view of science that is advocated in this book. It i…
Omitted Variables, Countervailing Effects, and the Possibility of Overadjustment
The effect of conditioning on an additional covariate on confounding bias depends, in part, on covariates that are unobserved. We characterize the conditions under which the interaction between a covariate that is available for conditioning and one that is not can affect bias. When the confounding effects of two covariates, one of which is observed, are countervailing (in opposite directions), conditioning on the observed covariate can increase b…
Logical Constraints
Researchers employing qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) and its variants use two-element Boolean algebra to compare cases and identify putative causal conditions. I show that the two-element Boolean algebra constrains research in three important ways: it restricts what we can say about sets and the interactions between sets, it embodies a logical language that is too weak to capture modern social science theories, and it restricts our analys…
Mathematics (10 obras) · Computer Science (9 obras) · Epistemology (9 obras) · Political science (9 obras) · Politics (8 obras) · Economics (7 obras) · Law (7 obras) · Qualitative Comparative Analysis Research (7 obras) · Econometrics (6 obras) · Law (6 obras)