Thad Dunning
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 3628898 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Thad Dunning |
| PRENOMES | Thad |
| SOBRENOME | Dunning |
| ASSINATURA | DUNNING T |
| AFILIAÇÕES | Yale University |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-2757-9000 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 27 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 762 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 26 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 1 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2004 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 9 |
The Power of Prognosis
Scholars frequently use covariate balance tests to test the validity of natural experiments and related designs. Unfortunately, when measured covariates are unrelated to potential outcomes, balance is uninformative about key identification conditions. We show that balance tests can then lead to erroneous conclusions. To build stronger tests, researchers should identify covariates that are jointly predictive of potential outcomes; formally measure…
Disrupting Compliance
Race, Resources, and Representation
Information, Accountability, and Cumulative Learning
Throughout the world, voters lack access to information about politicians, government performance, and public services. Efforts to remedy these informational deficits are numerous. Yet do informational campaigns influence voter behavior and increase democratic accountability? Through the first project of the Metaketa Initiative, sponsored by the Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) research network, this book aims to address this substantiv…
Race, Resources, and Representation
What explains the persistence of racial or ethnic inequalities in descriptive representation in the absence of strongly politicized racial or ethnic cleavages? This article uses new data to demonstrate a substantial racial gap between voters and politicians in Brazil. The authors show that this disparity is not plausibly due to racial preferences in the electorate as a whole, for instance, deference toward white candidates or discrimination again…
Transparency and Reproducibility in Multi-Method Research
Que explica la cooperacion internacional entre burocratas expertos de distintos paises en vias de desarrollo? Este articulo explica la cooperacion internacional entre agencias inter-gubernamentales a partir de la necesidad que tienen los burocratas expertos de actualizarse profesionalmente cuando el estado deja de invertir en recursos humanos. Este argumento es testeado utilizando datos de participacion en proyectos internacionales en el area de …
Transparency, Replication, and Cumulative Learning
Replication of simple and transparent experiments should promote the cumulation of knowledge. Yet, randomization alone does not guarantee simple analysis, transparent reporting, or third-party replication. This article surveys several challenges to cumulative learning from experiments and discusses emerging research practices—including several kinds of prespecification, two forms of replication, and a new model for coordinated experimental resear…
Clientelism and Poverty
INTRODUCTION: POVERTY OF NATIONS AND OF VOTERS Part II of this book constructs a model of clientelism that pivots around the behavior of types of individuals – party leaders, brokers, and voters. Part III examines macro-dynamics of clientelism: why it persists and what forces may undermine it, with an emphasis on historical developments at the national level. The current chapter marks a transition between micro and macro concerns. Here we study t…
Brokers, Voters, and Clientelism
"Brokers, Voters, and Clientelism addresses major questions in distributive politics. Why is it acceptable for parties to try to win elections by promising to make certain groups of people better off, but unacceptable, and illegal, to pay people for their votes? Why do parties often lavish benefits on loyal voters, whose support they can count on anyway, rather than on responsive swing voters? Why is vote buying and machine politics common in tod…
Ethnic Quotas and Political Mobilization
Ethnic quotas are often expected to induce distribution of material benefits to members of disadvantaged groups. Yet, the presence of an ethnic quota does not imply that political mobilization takes place along ethnic lines: Cross-cutting affiliations within multi-ethnic party organizations may lessen the tendency of politicians to target benefits to particular ethnic groups. In this article, we evaluate the impact of quotas for the presidencies …
Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences
1. Introduction: why natural experiments? Part I. Discovering Natural Experiments: 2. Standard natural experiments 3. Regression-discontinuity designs 4. Instrumental-variables designs Part II. Analyzing Natural Experiments: 5. Simplicity and transparency: keys to quantitative analysis 6. Sampling processes and standard errors 7. The central role of qualitative evidence Part III. Evaluating Natural Experiments: 8. How plausible is as-if random? 9…
Coethnicity
Journal Article Coethnicity: Diversity and the Dilemmas of Collective Action by James Habyarimana, Macartan Humphreys, Daniel N. Posner, and Jeremy M. Weinstein Get access Thad Dunning Thad Dunning Yale University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Political Science Quarterly, Volume 126, Issue 1, Spring 2011, Pages 161–163, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-165X.2011.tb02121.x Published: 25 March 2013
Fighting and Voting
Two recent research programs—one on the sources of democratic consolidation and another on the causes and consequences of violent conflict—have tended to evolve in relative isolation. The contributions to this special issue of Journal of Conflict Resolution help to bridge this gap, through explicit theoretical and empirical analysis of the relationship between fighting and voting. Armed conflict and electoral politics may be strategic substitutes…
Design-Based Inference
Endogenous Oil Rents
Oil rents may at times fall like “manna from heaven” into the fiscal coffers of the state. Yet politicians also make decisions that can increase or decrease the extent to which oil rents accrue to the central government. Though counterintuitive, various evidence suggests that politicians sometimes do not seek to maximize the state’s claim on rents. In this article, the author substantiates this observation with evidence from Venezuela and then de…
Cross-cutting Cleavages and Ethnic Voting
Social scientists often attribute moderation of the political salience of ethnicity in ethnically diverse societies to the presence of cross-cutting cleavages-that is, to dimensions of identity or interest along which members of the same ethnic group may have diverse allegiances. Yet, estimating the causal effects of cross-cutting cleavages is difficult. In this article, we present experimental results that help explain why ethnicity has a relati…
Crude Democracy
This book challenges the conventional wisdom that natural resource wealth promotes autocracy. Oil and other forms of mineral wealth can promote both authoritarianism and democracy, the book argues, but they do so through different mechanisms; an understanding of these different mechanisms can help elucidate when either the authoritarian or democratic effects of resource wealth will be relatively strong. Exploiting game-theoretic tools and statist…
Model Specification in Instrumental-Variables Regression
In many applications of instrumental-variables regression, researchers seek to defend the plausibility of a key assumption: the instrumental variable is independent of the error term in a linear regression model. Although fulfilling this exogeneity criterion is necessary for a valid application of the instrumental-variables approach, it is not sufficient. In the regression context, the identification of causal effects depends not just on the exog…
Crude democracy
This book challenges the conventional wisdom that natural resource wealth promotes autocracy. Oil and other forms of mineral wealth can promote both authoritarianism and democracy, the book argues, but they do so through different mechanisms; an understanding of these different mechanisms can help elucidate when either the authoritarian or democratic effects of resource wealth will be relatively strong. Exploiting game-theoretic tools and statist…
Improving Causal Inference
Social scientists increasingly exploit natural experiments in their research. This article surveys recent applications in political science, with the goal of illustrating the inferential advantages provided by this research design. When treatment assignment is less than “as if” random, studies may be something less than natural experiments, and familiar threats to valid causal inference in observational settings can arise. The author proposes a c…
Modeling Selection Effects
Will the Digital Revolution Revolutionize Development? Drawing Together the Debate
Classic Questions, New Context
Resource Dependence, Economic Performance, and Political Stability
In many resource-dependent states, elites may face an important trade-off between the economic benefits of diversification and the possibility for future political competition that diversification may engender. However, distinctive features of global resource markets and national political economies may make diversification more or less attractive to political elites. The author argues that in three cases which illustrate the equilibrium paths of…
From transplants to hybrids
Conditioning the Effects of Aid
The effect of foreign aid on regime type in recipient countries remains widely debated. In this research note, I argue that a recent focus on "moral hazard" has distracted attention from another mechanism linking foreign aid to domestic political institutions. During the Cold War, donors' geopolitical objectives diminished the credibility of threats to condition aid on the adoption of democratic reforms. The demise of the Soviet Union and the end…
Cross-cutting Cleavages and Ethnic Voting
Social scientists often attribute moderation of the political salience of ethnicity in ethnically diverse societies to the presence of cross-cutting cleavages-that is, to dimensions of identity or interest along which members of the same ethnic group may have diverse allegiances. Yet, estimating the causal effects of cross-cutting cleavages is difficult. In this article, we present experimental results that help explain why ethnicity has a relati…
Improving Causal Inference
Social scientists increasingly exploit natural experiments in their research. This article surveys recent applications in political science, with the goal of illustrating the inferential advantages provided by this research design. When treatment assignment is less than “as if” random, studies may be something less than natural experiments, and familiar threats to valid causal inference in observational settings can arise. The author proposes a c…
Ethnic Quotas and Political Mobilization
Ethnic quotas are often expected to induce distribution of material benefits to members of disadvantaged groups. Yet, the presence of an ethnic quota does not imply that political mobilization takes place along ethnic lines: Cross-cutting affiliations within multi-ethnic party organizations may lessen the tendency of politicians to target benefits to particular ethnic groups. In this article, we evaluate the impact of quotas for the presidencies …
Fighting and Voting
Two recent research programs—one on the sources of democratic consolidation and another on the causes and consequences of violent conflict—have tended to evolve in relative isolation. The contributions to this special issue of Journal of Conflict Resolution help to bridge this gap, through explicit theoretical and empirical analysis of the relationship between fighting and voting. Armed conflict and electoral politics may be strategic substitutes…
Resource Dependence, Economic Performance, and Political Stability
In many resource-dependent states, elites may face an important trade-off between the economic benefits of diversification and the possibility for future political competition that diversification may engender. However, distinctive features of global resource markets and national political economies may make diversification more or less attractive to political elites. The author argues that in three cases which illustrate the equilibrium paths of…
Race, Resources, and Representation
What explains the persistence of racial or ethnic inequalities in descriptive representation in the absence of strongly politicized racial or ethnic cleavages? This article uses new data to demonstrate a substantial racial gap between voters and politicians in Brazil. The authors show that this disparity is not plausibly due to racial preferences in the electorate as a whole, for instance, deference toward white candidates or discrimination again…
Model Specification in Instrumental-Variables Regression
In many applications of instrumental-variables regression, researchers seek to defend the plausibility of a key assumption: the instrumental variable is independent of the error term in a linear regression model. Although fulfilling this exogeneity criterion is necessary for a valid application of the instrumental-variables approach, it is not sufficient. In the regression context, the identification of causal effects depends not just on the exog…
Transparency, Replication, and Cumulative Learning
Replication of simple and transparent experiments should promote the cumulation of knowledge. Yet, randomization alone does not guarantee simple analysis, transparent reporting, or third-party replication. This article surveys several challenges to cumulative learning from experiments and discusses emerging research practices—including several kinds of prespecification, two forms of replication, and a new model for coordinated experimental resear…
Endogenous Oil Rents
Oil rents may at times fall like “manna from heaven” into the fiscal coffers of the state. Yet politicians also make decisions that can increase or decrease the extent to which oil rents accrue to the central government. Though counterintuitive, various evidence suggests that politicians sometimes do not seek to maximize the state’s claim on rents. In this article, the author substantiates this observation with evidence from Venezuela and then de…
Oil and the political economy of conflict in Colombia and beyond
Empirical studies have found a strong positive association between dependence on petroleum exports and the incidence and duration of civil war, yet these analyses remain largely bounded within a national level of analysis. Our case study of Colombia suggests that the international and transnational dimensions of oil, in particular the role of foreign direct investment and the centrality of global geopolitics, have an important influence on resour…
Transparency and Reproducibility in Multi-Method Research
Que explica la cooperacion internacional entre burocratas expertos de distintos paises en vias de desarrollo? Este articulo explica la cooperacion internacional entre agencias inter-gubernamentales a partir de la necesidad que tienen los burocratas expertos de actualizarse profesionalmente cuando el estado deja de invertir en recursos humanos. Este argumento es testeado utilizando datos de participacion en proyectos internacionales en el area de …
Will the Digital Revolution Revolutionize Development? Drawing Together the Debate
From transplants to hybrids
From transplants to hybrids
Conditioning the Effects of Aid
The effect of foreign aid on regime type in recipient countries remains widely debated. In this research note, I argue that a recent focus on "moral hazard" has distracted attention from another mechanism linking foreign aid to domestic political institutions. During the Cold War, donors' geopolitical objectives diminished the credibility of threats to condition aid on the adoption of democratic reforms. The demise of the Soviet Union and the end…
Oil and the political economy of conflict in Colombia and beyond
Empirical studies have found a strong positive association between dependence on petroleum exports and the incidence and duration of civil war, yet these analyses remain largely bounded within a national level of analysis. Our case study of Colombia suggests that the international and transnational dimensions of oil, in particular the role of foreign direct investment and the centrality of global geopolitics, have an important influence on resour…
Will the Digital Revolution Revolutionize Development? Drawing Together the Debate
Classic Questions, New Context
Resource Dependence, Economic Performance, and Political Stability
In many resource-dependent states, elites may face an important trade-off between the economic benefits of diversification and the possibility for future political competition that diversification may engender. However, distinctive features of global resource markets and national political economies may make diversification more or less attractive to political elites. The author argues that in three cases which illustrate the equilibrium paths of…
Modeling Selection Effects
Crude Democracy
This book challenges the conventional wisdom that natural resource wealth promotes autocracy. Oil and other forms of mineral wealth can promote both authoritarianism and democracy, the book argues, but they do so through different mechanisms; an understanding of these different mechanisms can help elucidate when either the authoritarian or democratic effects of resource wealth will be relatively strong. Exploiting game-theoretic tools and statist…
Model Specification in Instrumental-Variables Regression
In many applications of instrumental-variables regression, researchers seek to defend the plausibility of a key assumption: the instrumental variable is independent of the error term in a linear regression model. Although fulfilling this exogeneity criterion is necessary for a valid application of the instrumental-variables approach, it is not sufficient. In the regression context, the identification of causal effects depends not just on the exog…
Crude democracy
This book challenges the conventional wisdom that natural resource wealth promotes autocracy. Oil and other forms of mineral wealth can promote both authoritarianism and democracy, the book argues, but they do so through different mechanisms; an understanding of these different mechanisms can help elucidate when either the authoritarian or democratic effects of resource wealth will be relatively strong. Exploiting game-theoretic tools and statist…
Improving Causal Inference
Social scientists increasingly exploit natural experiments in their research. This article surveys recent applications in political science, with the goal of illustrating the inferential advantages provided by this research design. When treatment assignment is less than “as if” random, studies may be something less than natural experiments, and familiar threats to valid causal inference in observational settings can arise. The author proposes a c…
Design-Based Inference
Endogenous Oil Rents
Oil rents may at times fall like “manna from heaven” into the fiscal coffers of the state. Yet politicians also make decisions that can increase or decrease the extent to which oil rents accrue to the central government. Though counterintuitive, various evidence suggests that politicians sometimes do not seek to maximize the state’s claim on rents. In this article, the author substantiates this observation with evidence from Venezuela and then de…
Cross-cutting Cleavages and Ethnic Voting
Social scientists often attribute moderation of the political salience of ethnicity in ethnically diverse societies to the presence of cross-cutting cleavages-that is, to dimensions of identity or interest along which members of the same ethnic group may have diverse allegiances. Yet, estimating the causal effects of cross-cutting cleavages is difficult. In this article, we present experimental results that help explain why ethnicity has a relati…
Coethnicity
Journal Article Coethnicity: Diversity and the Dilemmas of Collective Action by James Habyarimana, Macartan Humphreys, Daniel N. Posner, and Jeremy M. Weinstein Get access Thad Dunning Thad Dunning Yale University Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar Political Science Quarterly, Volume 126, Issue 1, Spring 2011, Pages 161–163, https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-165X.2011.tb02121.x Published: 25 March 2013
Fighting and Voting
Two recent research programs—one on the sources of democratic consolidation and another on the causes and consequences of violent conflict—have tended to evolve in relative isolation. The contributions to this special issue of Journal of Conflict Resolution help to bridge this gap, through explicit theoretical and empirical analysis of the relationship between fighting and voting. Armed conflict and electoral politics may be strategic substitutes…
Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences
1. Introduction: why natural experiments? Part I. Discovering Natural Experiments: 2. Standard natural experiments 3. Regression-discontinuity designs 4. Instrumental-variables designs Part II. Analyzing Natural Experiments: 5. Simplicity and transparency: keys to quantitative analysis 6. Sampling processes and standard errors 7. The central role of qualitative evidence Part III. Evaluating Natural Experiments: 8. How plausible is as-if random? 9…
Clientelism and Poverty
INTRODUCTION: POVERTY OF NATIONS AND OF VOTERS Part II of this book constructs a model of clientelism that pivots around the behavior of types of individuals – party leaders, brokers, and voters. Part III examines macro-dynamics of clientelism: why it persists and what forces may undermine it, with an emphasis on historical developments at the national level. The current chapter marks a transition between micro and macro concerns. Here we study t…
Brokers, Voters, and Clientelism
"Brokers, Voters, and Clientelism addresses major questions in distributive politics. Why is it acceptable for parties to try to win elections by promising to make certain groups of people better off, but unacceptable, and illegal, to pay people for their votes? Why do parties often lavish benefits on loyal voters, whose support they can count on anyway, rather than on responsive swing voters? Why is vote buying and machine politics common in tod…
Ethnic Quotas and Political Mobilization
Ethnic quotas are often expected to induce distribution of material benefits to members of disadvantaged groups. Yet, the presence of an ethnic quota does not imply that political mobilization takes place along ethnic lines: Cross-cutting affiliations within multi-ethnic party organizations may lessen the tendency of politicians to target benefits to particular ethnic groups. In this article, we evaluate the impact of quotas for the presidencies …
Transparency and Reproducibility in Multi-Method Research
Que explica la cooperacion internacional entre burocratas expertos de distintos paises en vias de desarrollo? Este articulo explica la cooperacion internacional entre agencias inter-gubernamentales a partir de la necesidad que tienen los burocratas expertos de actualizarse profesionalmente cuando el estado deja de invertir en recursos humanos. Este argumento es testeado utilizando datos de participacion en proyectos internacionales en el area de …
Transparency, Replication, and Cumulative Learning
Replication of simple and transparent experiments should promote the cumulation of knowledge. Yet, randomization alone does not guarantee simple analysis, transparent reporting, or third-party replication. This article surveys several challenges to cumulative learning from experiments and discusses emerging research practices—including several kinds of prespecification, two forms of replication, and a new model for coordinated experimental resear…
Race, Resources, and Representation
What explains the persistence of racial or ethnic inequalities in descriptive representation in the absence of strongly politicized racial or ethnic cleavages? This article uses new data to demonstrate a substantial racial gap between voters and politicians in Brazil. The authors show that this disparity is not plausibly due to racial preferences in the electorate as a whole, for instance, deference toward white candidates or discrimination again…
Information, Accountability, and Cumulative Learning
Throughout the world, voters lack access to information about politicians, government performance, and public services. Efforts to remedy these informational deficits are numerous. Yet do informational campaigns influence voter behavior and increase democratic accountability? Through the first project of the Metaketa Initiative, sponsored by the Evidence in Governance and Politics (EGAP) research network, this book aims to address this substantiv…
Race, Resources, and Representation
Political science (17 obras) · Economics (14 obras) · Politics (13 obras) · Law (11 obras) · Computer Science (10 obras) · Political economy (9 obras) · Law (7 obras) · Democracy (6 obras) · Electoral Systems and Political Participation (6 obras) · Sociology (6 obras)