Alexander De Juan
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 367096 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Alexander De Juan |
| PRENOMES | Alexander |
| SOBRENOME | De Juan |
| ASSINATURA | DE JUAN A |
| AFILIAÇÕES | Osnabrück University |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-6649-5064 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 32 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 298 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 32 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2008 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2026 |
| ÍNDICE H | 10 |
Cadre networks and bureaucratic careers in autocracies
Transitional Justice and Support for Policies of Remembrance after Mass Violence
Prior research suggests that punitive transitional justice (TJ) may foster a sense of collective exoneration among perpetrator groups, potentially reducing support for remembrance of in-group atrocities in the long term. We test this potential “hidden cost’’ of TJ in Germany using a vignette experiment manipulating perceptions of the extent of denazification and an observational analysis exploiting variation in denazification intensity across occ…
The Political Effects of Witnessing State Atrocities
How does witnessing regime atrocities influence the political attitudes of bystanders? We argue that observing regime violence against innocent civilians triggers psychological dissonance between beliefs about the regime and the witnessed moral transgression. As a result, regime support should decrease among bystanders of state atrocities. We analyze original, highly disaggregated archival data from the Nazi death marches at the end of World War …
Right-Wing Terror, Media Backlash, and Voting Preferences for the Far Right
How does right-wing terrorism affect electoral support for populist radical right parties (PRRPs)? Recent research has produced contrary answers to this question. We argue that only high-intensity attacks, whose motives and targets mirror PRRPs’ nativist agenda, are likely to generate a media backlash that dampens electoral support for PRRPs. We test this argument by combining high-frequency survey and social media data with a natural and survey …
Large-Scale Agricultural Investments, Employment Opportunities, and Communal Conflict
War and Nationalism
Can wars breed nationalism? We argue that civilians' indirect exposure to war fatalities can trigger psychological processes that increase identification with their nation and ultimately strengthen support for nationalist parties. We test this argument in the context of the rise of the Nazi Party after World War 1 (WW1). To measure localized war exposure, we machine-coded information on 7.5 million German soldiers who were wounded or died in WW1.…
The Partial Effectiveness of Indoctrination in Autocracies
Dictators depend on a committed bureaucracy to implement their policy preferences. But how do they induce loyalty and effort within their civil service? The authors study indoctrination through forced military service as a cost-effective strategy for achieving this goal. Conscription allows the regime to expose recruits, including future civil servants, to intense “political training” in a controlled environment, which should improve system engag…
Preferences for the Scope of Protests
This paper studies a dimension of protest largely overlooked in the literature: protest scope, that is, whether protests seek large, structural, changes for a large share of the population or focus on small-scale improvements for small groups. We argue that this protest dimension is relevant for understanding the political consequences of protests. We show empirically that protests vary substantially in scope and that scope is not collinear with …
Survey participation effects in conflict research
Do survey participants in conflict zones respond differently if they have been interviewed before? Academic and policy interest in postwar political opinion has increased tremendously. One unexpected consequence of this surge of survey research is a growing probability that individuals will be interviewed multiple times. However, if participating in one survey causes respondents to change their attitudes or behavior, their subsequent survey respo…
Climate and cohesion
While a large body of research has highlighted the conflict-inducing effects of climate change, we still know very little about the mechanisms linking environmental conditions to violent conflict. This article investigates the plausibility of a prominent channel according to which scarcity of natural resources can foster violent conflict through deteriorating intergroup relations. In addition to assessing the direct effects of adverse environment…
Heterogeneous Effects of Development Aid on Violent Unrest in Postwar Countries
Many countries experience massive aid surges when civil wars end. However, operational contexts tend to remain particularly sensitive due to a combination of persisting local-level cleavages and low-quality state institutions. Consequently, aid provision risks inciting distributional conflicts and violent unrest—most notably when resources are injected into areas of high social heterogeneity or particularly weak state administration. I investigat…
Conditional effects of development aid on political perceptions
Can aid create political trust in conflict-affected states? International aid organizations often argue that supporting states in providing basic services can contribute to strengthening state–society relations. Previous studies in international development have indicated that the provision of basic services can indeed improve people’s attitudes towards state institutions. We take this research a step further: in addition to analysing the impact …
Temperatures, food riots, and adaptation
A large body of research indicates that environmental conditions can influence the risk of social unrest. However, we know little about how these effects may change in the long run. Are they likely to remain constant or do they change over time - for example as a consequence of human adaptation? To investigate this question, we rely on a disaggregated analysis of England over a period of more than 300 years. Combining data on geo-referenced food …
Natural disasters, aid distribution, and social conflict – Micro-level evidence from the 2015 earthquake in Nepal
Social Inequality, State-centered Grievances, and Protest
What role does horizontal social inequality play for political protest in middle-income countries? We argue that public social service provision is an important driver of state perceptions. When a state fails to deliver services in an equitable manner, trust in institutions erodes and protest becomes more likely. We use a mixed methods design to investigate this argument in South Africa. First, we combine police event records with census data to …
The Territorial Expansion of the Colonial State
What explains states’ sub-national territorial reach? While large parts of the state-building literature have focused on national capabilities, little is known about the determinants of the unevenness of state presence at the sub-national level. This article seeks to fill this gap by looking at early attempts at state building: it investigates the processes of state penetration in the former colony of German East Africa. Contrary to previous stud…
The historical roots of cooperative behavior—Evidence from eastern Congo
Traditional” Resolution of Land Conflicts
Where and how have precolonial institutions of conflict resolution remained intact? Although it is often argued that “traditional” institutions can play a key role in managing communal conflicts, little is known about the conditions of their “survival.” This article argues that historical, political, and cultural topographies are essential to understanding patterns of the persistence and demise of precolonial institutions. Traditional modes of co…
Constructing the State
How do states build a security apparatus after violent resistance against state rule? This article argues that in early periods of state building two main factors shape the process: the macro-strategic goals of the state and administrative challenges of personnel management. These dynamics are studied in the context of the establishment of police forces in the settler colony of German Southwest Africa, present-day Namibia. The empirical analysis …
The Comparative Politics of Colonialism and Its Legacies
What are the causes and consequences of colonial rule? This introduction to the special issue 'Comparative Politics of Colonialism and Its Legacies' surveys recent literature in political science, sociology, and economics that addresses colonial state building and colonial legacies. Past research has made important contributions to our understanding of colonialism's long-term effects on political, social, and economic development. Existing work e…
Extraction and Violent Resistance in the Early Phases of State Building
Does extraction increase the likelihood of antistate violence in the early phases of state-building processes? Although research has focused on the impacts of war on state building, the potential “war-making effects” of extraction have largely been neglected. The article provides the first quantitative analysis of these effects in the context of colonial state building. It focuses on the “Maji Maji” rebellion (1905-1907), the most substantial inc…
Framing Political Violence
How do religious civil wars evolve? Many violent conflicts are fought between groups of different faiths. The paper argues, however, that religious differences rarely directly lead to conflict onset. Rather, the apparent religious dimension of many civil wars is a consequence of successful religious framing. Political and military leaders offer religious interpretations designed to legitimize the use of force and to mobilize believers to violent …
The Pacifying Effects of Local Religious Institutions
This paper tests whether local religious institutions have a dampening effect on the probability of communal violence. It argues that a dense layer of institutions strengthens horizontal and vertical contacts and networks within religious communities. Horizontal linkages help to bridge social, economic, and ethnic divisions. Vertical contacts enable religious leaders to stay informed about communal grievances among their followers and to coordina…
Long-term environmental change and geographical patterns of violence in Darfur, 2003-2005
The Role of Intra-Religious Conflicts in Intrastate Wars
Many civil wars are fought between members of different religious communities. It seems plausible to focus on these communities’ interrelations to identify the causal factors responsible for the escalating effects that religion can have in such conflicts. A closer look, however, reveals that processes within religious communities can be crucial in influencing the role religions play in intrastate wars. Within single communities, factions of relig…
Civil war violence and political trust
Exposure to violence can shape people’s political and social perceptions. War-time effects on trust in state institutions are particularly relevant for political stability in the aftermath of violent conflict. If people distrust the state, they are less likely to endorse reform plans, will be less inclined to comply with state rules and regulations, and may uphold support for challengers of state authority. Our paper contributes to the understand…
Social Inequality, State-centered Grievances, and Protest
What role does horizontal social inequality play for political protest in middle-income countries? We argue that public social service provision is an important driver of state perceptions. When a state fails to deliver services in an equitable manner, trust in institutions erodes and protest becomes more likely. We use a mixed methods design to investigate this argument in South Africa. First, we combine police event records with census data to …
The Pacifying Effects of Local Religious Institutions
This paper tests whether local religious institutions have a dampening effect on the probability of communal violence. It argues that a dense layer of institutions strengthens horizontal and vertical contacts and networks within religious communities. Horizontal linkages help to bridge social, economic, and ethnic divisions. Vertical contacts enable religious leaders to stay informed about communal grievances among their followers and to coordina…
The Comparative Politics of Colonialism and Its Legacies
What are the causes and consequences of colonial rule? This introduction to the special issue 'Comparative Politics of Colonialism and Its Legacies' surveys recent literature in political science, sociology, and economics that addresses colonial state building and colonial legacies. Past research has made important contributions to our understanding of colonialism's long-term effects on political, social, and economic development. Existing work e…
War and Nationalism
Can wars breed nationalism? We argue that civilians' indirect exposure to war fatalities can trigger psychological processes that increase identification with their nation and ultimately strengthen support for nationalist parties. We test this argument in the context of the rise of the Nazi Party after World War 1 (WW1). To measure localized war exposure, we machine-coded information on 7.5 million German soldiers who were wounded or died in WW1.…
Constructing the State
How do states build a security apparatus after violent resistance against state rule? This article argues that in early periods of state building two main factors shape the process: the macro-strategic goals of the state and administrative challenges of personnel management. These dynamics are studied in the context of the establishment of police forces in the settler colony of German Southwest Africa, present-day Namibia. The empirical analysis …
Long-term environmental change and geographical patterns of violence in Darfur, 2003-2005
A Pact with the Devil? Elite Alliances as Bases of Violent Religious Conflicts
This article aims at explaining religious conflicts on the basis of an elite-centered theoretical model. Violent movements can only pertain on the long run if political elites organize and coordinate them centrally. The same holds true for the religious dimension of many conflicts. Religious elites have to persuade the believers of the religious nature of their struggle. Hence, in many cases religious conflicts can be traced back to alliances of …
The Partial Effectiveness of Indoctrination in Autocracies
Dictators depend on a committed bureaucracy to implement their policy preferences. But how do they induce loyalty and effort within their civil service? The authors study indoctrination through forced military service as a cost-effective strategy for achieving this goal. Conscription allows the regime to expose recruits, including future civil servants, to intense “political training” in a controlled environment, which should improve system engag…
The Ba'athist blackout? Selective goods provision and political violence in the Syrian civil war
Many authoritarian regimes selectively provide critical segments of the population with privileged access to goods and services, expecting political support in return. This article is interested in the effects of this regime strategy: Is violent opposition less likely to occur in subnational regions bound to the ruling elite through such patron-client networks? For its empirical analysis, the article makes use of crowdsourcing data on the number …
Natural disasters, aid distribution, and social conflict – Micro-level evidence from the 2015 earthquake in Nepal
The Territorial Expansion of the Colonial State
What explains states’ sub-national territorial reach? While large parts of the state-building literature have focused on national capabilities, little is known about the determinants of the unevenness of state presence at the sub-national level. This article seeks to fill this gap by looking at early attempts at state building: it investigates the processes of state penetration in the former colony of German East Africa. Contrary to previous stud…
Traditional” Resolution of Land Conflicts
Where and how have precolonial institutions of conflict resolution remained intact? Although it is often argued that “traditional” institutions can play a key role in managing communal conflicts, little is known about the conditions of their “survival.” This article argues that historical, political, and cultural topographies are essential to understanding patterns of the persistence and demise of precolonial institutions. Traditional modes of co…
Framing Political Violence
How do religious civil wars evolve? Many violent conflicts are fought between groups of different faiths. The paper argues, however, that religious differences rarely directly lead to conflict onset. Rather, the apparent religious dimension of many civil wars is a consequence of successful religious framing. Political and military leaders offer religious interpretations designed to legitimize the use of force and to mobilize believers to violent …
The Political Effects of Witnessing State Atrocities
How does witnessing regime atrocities influence the political attitudes of bystanders? We argue that observing regime violence against innocent civilians triggers psychological dissonance between beliefs about the regime and the witnessed moral transgression. As a result, regime support should decrease among bystanders of state atrocities. We analyze original, highly disaggregated archival data from the Nazi death marches at the end of World War …
Heterogeneous Effects of Development Aid on Violent Unrest in Postwar Countries
Many countries experience massive aid surges when civil wars end. However, operational contexts tend to remain particularly sensitive due to a combination of persisting local-level cleavages and low-quality state institutions. Consequently, aid provision risks inciting distributional conflicts and violent unrest—most notably when resources are injected into areas of high social heterogeneity or particularly weak state administration. I investigat…
Manpower to coerce and co-opt—State capacity and political violence in southern Sudan 2006–2010
This paper investigates the role of state capacity for political violence. Most previous studies have suffered from inadequacies of country-level data, questionable validity of indicators or theoretical shortcomings. This paper aims at overcoming some of these challenges. We focus on one specific aspect of state capacity: the role of governmental manpower. We argue that its subnational effect on political violence follows a non-linear, inverted-U…
Survey participation effects in conflict research
Do survey participants in conflict zones respond differently if they have been interviewed before? Academic and policy interest in postwar political opinion has increased tremendously. One unexpected consequence of this surge of survey research is a growing probability that individuals will be interviewed multiple times. However, if participating in one survey causes respondents to change their attitudes or behavior, their subsequent survey respo…
Climate and cohesion
While a large body of research has highlighted the conflict-inducing effects of climate change, we still know very little about the mechanisms linking environmental conditions to violent conflict. This article investigates the plausibility of a prominent channel according to which scarcity of natural resources can foster violent conflict through deteriorating intergroup relations. In addition to assessing the direct effects of adverse environment…
The historical roots of cooperative behavior—Evidence from eastern Congo
Preferences for the Scope of Protests
This paper studies a dimension of protest largely overlooked in the literature: protest scope, that is, whether protests seek large, structural, changes for a large share of the population or focus on small-scale improvements for small groups. We argue that this protest dimension is relevant for understanding the political consequences of protests. We show empirically that protests vary substantially in scope and that scope is not collinear with …
Temperatures, food riots, and adaptation
A large body of research indicates that environmental conditions can influence the risk of social unrest. However, we know little about how these effects may change in the long run. Are they likely to remain constant or do they change over time - for example as a consequence of human adaptation? To investigate this question, we rely on a disaggregated analysis of England over a period of more than 300 years. Combining data on geo-referenced food …
Devolving Ethnic Conflicts
Institutions can contribute to regulating interethnic conflict; however, in many cases, they fail to bring about lasting peace. The article argues that the negligence of subgroup identities accounts for some of this failure. Ethnic groups are often treated as unitary actors even though most consist of various linguistic, tribal, or religious subgroups. When interethnic conflict is settled, subgroup differences may come back to the fore. This ‘res…
Conditional effects of development aid on political perceptions
Can aid create political trust in conflict-affected states? International aid organizations often argue that supporting states in providing basic services can contribute to strengthening state–society relations. Previous studies in international development have indicated that the provision of basic services can indeed improve people’s attitudes towards state institutions. We take this research a step further: in addition to analysing the impact …
Extraction and Violent Resistance in the Early Phases of State Building
Does extraction increase the likelihood of antistate violence in the early phases of state-building processes? Although research has focused on the impacts of war on state building, the potential “war-making effects” of extraction have largely been neglected. The article provides the first quantitative analysis of these effects in the context of colonial state building. It focuses on the “Maji Maji” rebellion (1905-1907), the most substantial inc…
The 'Ambivalence of the Sacred' in Africa
A Pact with the Devil? Elite Alliances as Bases of Violent Religious Conflicts
This article aims at explaining religious conflicts on the basis of an elite-centered theoretical model. Violent movements can only pertain on the long run if political elites organize and coordinate them centrally. The same holds true for the religious dimension of many conflicts. Religious elites have to persuade the believers of the religious nature of their struggle. Hence, in many cases religious conflicts can be traced back to alliances of …
Innerstaatliche Gewaltkonflikte unter dem Banner der Religion
In vielen Bürgerkriegen wirken Religionen gewalteskalierend. Sie grenzen Andersgläubige voneinander ab und erhöhen ihre Kampfbereitschaft. In anderen Konflikten spielen Religionen keine Rolle oder wirken sogar friedensfördernd. Warum tragen Religionen in manchen Kriegen zur Eskalation bei und in anderen nicht?
Devolving Ethnic Conflicts
Institutions can contribute to regulating interethnic conflict; however, in many cases, they fail to bring about lasting peace. The article argues that the negligence of subgroup identities accounts for some of this failure. Ethnic groups are often treated as unitary actors even though most consist of various linguistic, tribal, or religious subgroups. When interethnic conflict is settled, subgroup differences may come back to the fore. This ‘res…
Manpower to coerce and co-opt—State capacity and political violence in southern Sudan 2006–2010
This paper investigates the role of state capacity for political violence. Most previous studies have suffered from inadequacies of country-level data, questionable validity of indicators or theoretical shortcomings. This paper aims at overcoming some of these challenges. We focus on one specific aspect of state capacity: the role of governmental manpower. We argue that its subnational effect on political violence follows a non-linear, inverted-U…
Civil war violence and political trust
Exposure to violence can shape people’s political and social perceptions. War-time effects on trust in state institutions are particularly relevant for political stability in the aftermath of violent conflict. If people distrust the state, they are less likely to endorse reform plans, will be less inclined to comply with state rules and regulations, and may uphold support for challengers of state authority. Our paper contributes to the understand…
Framing Political Violence
How do religious civil wars evolve? Many violent conflicts are fought between groups of different faiths. The paper argues, however, that religious differences rarely directly lead to conflict onset. Rather, the apparent religious dimension of many civil wars is a consequence of successful religious framing. Political and military leaders offer religious interpretations designed to legitimize the use of force and to mobilize believers to violent …
The Pacifying Effects of Local Religious Institutions
This paper tests whether local religious institutions have a dampening effect on the probability of communal violence. It argues that a dense layer of institutions strengthens horizontal and vertical contacts and networks within religious communities. Horizontal linkages help to bridge social, economic, and ethnic divisions. Vertical contacts enable religious leaders to stay informed about communal grievances among their followers and to coordina…
Long-term environmental change and geographical patterns of violence in Darfur, 2003-2005
The Role of Intra-Religious Conflicts in Intrastate Wars
Many civil wars are fought between members of different religious communities. It seems plausible to focus on these communities’ interrelations to identify the causal factors responsible for the escalating effects that religion can have in such conflicts. A closer look, however, reveals that processes within religious communities can be crucial in influencing the role religions play in intrastate wars. Within single communities, factions of relig…
The Ba'athist blackout? Selective goods provision and political violence in the Syrian civil war
Many authoritarian regimes selectively provide critical segments of the population with privileged access to goods and services, expecting political support in return. This article is interested in the effects of this regime strategy: Is violent opposition less likely to occur in subnational regions bound to the ruling elite through such patron-client networks? For its empirical analysis, the article makes use of crowdsourcing data on the number …
Extraction and Violent Resistance in the Early Phases of State Building
Does extraction increase the likelihood of antistate violence in the early phases of state-building processes? Although research has focused on the impacts of war on state building, the potential “war-making effects” of extraction have largely been neglected. The article provides the first quantitative analysis of these effects in the context of colonial state building. It focuses on the “Maji Maji” rebellion (1905-1907), the most substantial inc…
Traditional” Resolution of Land Conflicts
Where and how have precolonial institutions of conflict resolution remained intact? Although it is often argued that “traditional” institutions can play a key role in managing communal conflicts, little is known about the conditions of their “survival.” This article argues that historical, political, and cultural topographies are essential to understanding patterns of the persistence and demise of precolonial institutions. Traditional modes of co…
Constructing the State
How do states build a security apparatus after violent resistance against state rule? This article argues that in early periods of state building two main factors shape the process: the macro-strategic goals of the state and administrative challenges of personnel management. These dynamics are studied in the context of the establishment of police forces in the settler colony of German Southwest Africa, present-day Namibia. The empirical analysis …
The Comparative Politics of Colonialism and Its Legacies
What are the causes and consequences of colonial rule? This introduction to the special issue 'Comparative Politics of Colonialism and Its Legacies' surveys recent literature in political science, sociology, and economics that addresses colonial state building and colonial legacies. Past research has made important contributions to our understanding of colonialism's long-term effects on political, social, and economic development. Existing work e…
The historical roots of cooperative behavior—Evidence from eastern Congo
Natural disasters, aid distribution, and social conflict – Micro-level evidence from the 2015 earthquake in Nepal
Social Inequality, State-centered Grievances, and Protest
What role does horizontal social inequality play for political protest in middle-income countries? We argue that public social service provision is an important driver of state perceptions. When a state fails to deliver services in an equitable manner, trust in institutions erodes and protest becomes more likely. We use a mixed methods design to investigate this argument in South Africa. First, we combine police event records with census data to …
The Territorial Expansion of the Colonial State
What explains states’ sub-national territorial reach? While large parts of the state-building literature have focused on national capabilities, little is known about the determinants of the unevenness of state presence at the sub-national level. This article seeks to fill this gap by looking at early attempts at state building: it investigates the processes of state penetration in the former colony of German East Africa. Contrary to previous stud…
Heterogeneous Effects of Development Aid on Violent Unrest in Postwar Countries
Many countries experience massive aid surges when civil wars end. However, operational contexts tend to remain particularly sensitive due to a combination of persisting local-level cleavages and low-quality state institutions. Consequently, aid provision risks inciting distributional conflicts and violent unrest—most notably when resources are injected into areas of high social heterogeneity or particularly weak state administration. I investigat…
Conditional effects of development aid on political perceptions
Can aid create political trust in conflict-affected states? International aid organizations often argue that supporting states in providing basic services can contribute to strengthening state–society relations. Previous studies in international development have indicated that the provision of basic services can indeed improve people’s attitudes towards state institutions. We take this research a step further: in addition to analysing the impact …
Temperatures, food riots, and adaptation
A large body of research indicates that environmental conditions can influence the risk of social unrest. However, we know little about how these effects may change in the long run. Are they likely to remain constant or do they change over time - for example as a consequence of human adaptation? To investigate this question, we rely on a disaggregated analysis of England over a period of more than 300 years. Combining data on geo-referenced food …
The Partial Effectiveness of Indoctrination in Autocracies
Dictators depend on a committed bureaucracy to implement their policy preferences. But how do they induce loyalty and effort within their civil service? The authors study indoctrination through forced military service as a cost-effective strategy for achieving this goal. Conscription allows the regime to expose recruits, including future civil servants, to intense “political training” in a controlled environment, which should improve system engag…
Preferences for the Scope of Protests
This paper studies a dimension of protest largely overlooked in the literature: protest scope, that is, whether protests seek large, structural, changes for a large share of the population or focus on small-scale improvements for small groups. We argue that this protest dimension is relevant for understanding the political consequences of protests. We show empirically that protests vary substantially in scope and that scope is not collinear with …
Survey participation effects in conflict research
Do survey participants in conflict zones respond differently if they have been interviewed before? Academic and policy interest in postwar political opinion has increased tremendously. One unexpected consequence of this surge of survey research is a growing probability that individuals will be interviewed multiple times. However, if participating in one survey causes respondents to change their attitudes or behavior, their subsequent survey respo…
Political science (30 obras) · Law (23 obras) · Politics (23 obras) · Law (19 obras) · Sociology (19 obras) · Political economy (16 obras) · Economics (15 obras) · Geography (14 obras) · Political Conflict and Governance (12 obras) · Psychology (11 obras)