Mark Gertler
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 3822565 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Mark Gertler |
| PRENOMES | Mark |
| SOBRENOME | Gertler |
| ASSINATURA | GERTLER M |
| AFILIAÇÕES | New York University |
| VERIFICADO | Não |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 18 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 80 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 17 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 1 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1970 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2018 |
| ÍNDICE H | 4 |
What Happened
At the onset of the recent global financial crisis, the workhorse macroeconomic models assumed frictionless financial markets. These frameworks were thus not able to anticipate the crisis, nor to analyze how the disruption of credit markets changed what initially appeared like a mild downturn into the Great Recession. Since that time, an explosion of both theoretical and empirical research has investigated how the financial crisis emerged and how…
Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity
We provide evidence on the transmission of monetary policy shocks in a setting with both economic and financial variables. We first show that shocks identified using high frequency surprises around policy announcements as external instruments produce responses in output and inflation that are typical in monetary VAR analysis. We also find, however, that the resulting “modest” movements in short rates lead to “large” movements in credit costs, whi…
A model of unconventional monetary policy
Unemployment Fluctuations with Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining
A number of authors have recently emphasized that the conventional model of unemployment dynamics due to Mortensen and Pissarides has difficulty accounting for the relatively volatile behavior of labor market activity over the business cycle. We address this issue by modifying the MP framework to allow for staggered multiperiod wage contracting. What emerges is a tractable relation for wage dynamics that is a natural generalization of the period-…
A Phillips Curve with an Ss Foundation
We develop an analytically tractable Phillips curve based on state-dependent pricing. We consider a local approximation around a zero inflation steady state and introduce infrequent idiosyncratic shocks. The resulting Phillips curve is a simple variant of the conventional time-dependent Calvo formulation with important differences. First, the model is able to match the micro evidence on the magnitude and timing of price adjustments. Second, our s…
Markups, Gaps, and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations
In this paper we present a simple, theory-based measure of the variations in aggregate economic efficiency associated with business fluctuations. We decompose this indicator, which we refer to as "the gap", into two constituent parts: a price markup and a wage markup, and show that the latter accounts for the bulk of the fluctuations in our gap measure. Finally, we derive a measure of the welfare costs of business cycles that is directly related …
Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation
We describe some of the main features of the recent vintage of macroeconomic models used for monetary policy evaluation. We point to some of the key differences with respect to the earlier generation of macro models and highlight the insights for policy that these new frameworks have to offer. Our discussion emphasizes two key aspects of the new models: 1) the significant role of expectations of future policy actions in the monetary transmission …
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005
This 20th edition of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual treats many questions at the cutting edge of macroeconomics that are central to current policy debates. The papers and discussions include an analysis of the differential between American and European unemployment rates, with the authors of the paper taking issue with Edward Prescott's view that higher European tax rates are responsible; a provocative account of the relationship between fluctuat…
Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability
We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for the postwar United States economy, before and after Volcker's appointment as Fed Chairman in 1979. Our results point to substantial differences in the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest rate policy in the Volcker-Greenspan period appears to have been much more sensitive to changes in expected inflation than in the pre-Volcker period. We then compare some of th…
Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility
We explore the implications of asset price volatility for the management of monetary policy.We show that it is desirable for central banks to focus on underlying inflationary pressures.Asset prices become relevant only to the extent they may signal potential inflationary or deflationary forces.Rules that directly target asset prices appear to have undesirable side effects.We base our
The Science of Monetary Policy
The paper reviews the recent literature on monetary policy rules. We exposit the monetary policy design problem within a simple baseline theoretical framework. We then consider the implications of adding various real world complications. Among other things, we show that the optimal policy implicitly incorporates inflation targeting. We also characterize the gains from making a credible commitment to fight inflation. In contrast to conventional wi…
Inflation dynamics
We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward-looking rule to set prices. The model nests the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of marginal cost as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theory suggests, instead of an ad hoc output gap. Real marginal costs are a significant and quantitatively important determinant of in…
Monetary policy rules in practice
The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality
Adverse shocks to the economy may be amplified by worsening credit-market conditions-- the financial 'accelerator'. Theoretically, we interpret the financial accelerator as resulting from endogenous changes over the business cycle in the agency costs of lending. An implication of the theory is that, at the onset of a recession, borrowers facing high agency costs should receive a relatively lower share of credit extended (the flight to quality) an…
Inside the Black Box
The 'credit channel' theory of monetary policy transmission holds that informational frictions in credit markets worsen during tight-money periods. The resulting increase in the external finance premium--the difference in cost between internal and external funds--enhances the effects of monetary policy on the real economy. The authors document the responses of GDP and its components to monetary policy shocks and describe how the credit channel he…
Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms
We analyze the response of small versus large manufacturing firms to monetary policy. The goal is to obtain evidence on the importance of financial propagation mechanisms for aggregate activity. We find that small firms account for a significantly disproportionate share of the manufacturing decline that follows tightening of monetary policy. They play a surprisingly prominent role in the slowdown of inventory demand. Large firms initially borrow …
Imperfect Information and Wage Inertia in the Business Cycle
Nominal wages have less variation about a trend than the money supply does, and the variation is more persistent. This inertia in the nominal wage is often cited as the principal source of stagflation. This paper explains the phenomenon by appealing to temporary wage inflexibility in an environment where agents cannot directly disentangle permanent versus transitory movements in key state variables. A wage equation results that is a distributed l…
Essays in Monetary Economics
Essays in Monetary Economics Get access Essays in Monetary Economics. By Harry G. Johnson. 2nd ed. with new Introduction. London: Allen & Unwin. 1969. 332 pp. Bibliog. Index. (Unwin University Books, 52.) 25s. International Affairs, Volume 46, Issue 4, October 1970, Page 780, https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/46.4.780b Published: 01 October 1970
Inside the Black Box
The 'credit channel' theory of monetary policy transmission holds that informational frictions in credit markets worsen during tight-money periods. The resulting increase in the external finance premium--the difference in cost between internal and external funds--enhances the effects of monetary policy on the real economy. The authors document the responses of GDP and its components to monetary policy shocks and describe how the credit channel he…
Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility
We explore the implications of asset price volatility for the management of monetary policy.We show that it is desirable for central banks to focus on underlying inflationary pressures.Asset prices become relevant only to the extent they may signal potential inflationary or deflationary forces.Rules that directly target asset prices appear to have undesirable side effects.We base our
Unemployment Fluctuations with Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining
A number of authors have recently emphasized that the conventional model of unemployment dynamics due to Mortensen and Pissarides has difficulty accounting for the relatively volatile behavior of labor market activity over the business cycle. We address this issue by modifying the MP framework to allow for staggered multiperiod wage contracting. What emerges is a tractable relation for wage dynamics that is a natural generalization of the period-…
A Phillips Curve with an Ss Foundation
We develop an analytically tractable Phillips curve based on state-dependent pricing. We consider a local approximation around a zero inflation steady state and introduce infrequent idiosyncratic shocks. The resulting Phillips curve is a simple variant of the conventional time-dependent Calvo formulation with important differences. First, the model is able to match the micro evidence on the magnitude and timing of price adjustments. Second, our s…
Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation
We describe some of the main features of the recent vintage of macroeconomic models used for monetary policy evaluation. We point to some of the key differences with respect to the earlier generation of macro models and highlight the insights for policy that these new frameworks have to offer. Our discussion emphasizes two key aspects of the new models: 1) the significant role of expectations of future policy actions in the monetary transmission …
What Happened
At the onset of the recent global financial crisis, the workhorse macroeconomic models assumed frictionless financial markets. These frameworks were thus not able to anticipate the crisis, nor to analyze how the disruption of credit markets changed what initially appeared like a mild downturn into the Great Recession. Since that time, an explosion of both theoretical and empirical research has investigated how the financial crisis emerged and how…
Essays in Monetary Economics
Essays in Monetary Economics Get access Essays in Monetary Economics. By Harry G. Johnson. 2nd ed. with new Introduction. London: Allen & Unwin. 1969. 332 pp. Bibliog. Index. (Unwin University Books, 52.) 25s. International Affairs, Volume 46, Issue 4, October 1970, Page 780, https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/46.4.780b Published: 01 October 1970
Imperfect Information and Wage Inertia in the Business Cycle
Nominal wages have less variation about a trend than the money supply does, and the variation is more persistent. This inertia in the nominal wage is often cited as the principal source of stagflation. This paper explains the phenomenon by appealing to temporary wage inflexibility in an environment where agents cannot directly disentangle permanent versus transitory movements in key state variables. A wage equation results that is a distributed l…
Essays in Monetary Economics
Essays in Monetary Economics Get access Essays in Monetary Economics. By Harry G. Johnson. 2nd ed. with new Introduction. London: Allen & Unwin. 1969. 332 pp. Bibliog. Index. (Unwin University Books, 52.) 25s. International Affairs, Volume 46, Issue 4, October 1970, Page 780, https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/46.4.780b Published: 01 October 1970
Imperfect Information and Wage Inertia in the Business Cycle
Nominal wages have less variation about a trend than the money supply does, and the variation is more persistent. This inertia in the nominal wage is often cited as the principal source of stagflation. This paper explains the phenomenon by appealing to temporary wage inflexibility in an environment where agents cannot directly disentangle permanent versus transitory movements in key state variables. A wage equation results that is a distributed l…
Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms
We analyze the response of small versus large manufacturing firms to monetary policy. The goal is to obtain evidence on the importance of financial propagation mechanisms for aggregate activity. We find that small firms account for a significantly disproportionate share of the manufacturing decline that follows tightening of monetary policy. They play a surprisingly prominent role in the slowdown of inventory demand. Large firms initially borrow …
Inside the Black Box
The 'credit channel' theory of monetary policy transmission holds that informational frictions in credit markets worsen during tight-money periods. The resulting increase in the external finance premium--the difference in cost between internal and external funds--enhances the effects of monetary policy on the real economy. The authors document the responses of GDP and its components to monetary policy shocks and describe how the credit channel he…
The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality
Adverse shocks to the economy may be amplified by worsening credit-market conditions-- the financial 'accelerator'. Theoretically, we interpret the financial accelerator as resulting from endogenous changes over the business cycle in the agency costs of lending. An implication of the theory is that, at the onset of a recession, borrowers facing high agency costs should receive a relatively lower share of credit extended (the flight to quality) an…
Monetary policy rules in practice
The Science of Monetary Policy
The paper reviews the recent literature on monetary policy rules. We exposit the monetary policy design problem within a simple baseline theoretical framework. We then consider the implications of adding various real world complications. Among other things, we show that the optimal policy implicitly incorporates inflation targeting. We also characterize the gains from making a credible commitment to fight inflation. In contrast to conventional wi…
Inflation dynamics
We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward-looking rule to set prices. The model nests the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of marginal cost as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theory suggests, instead of an ad hoc output gap. Real marginal costs are a significant and quantitatively important determinant of in…
Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability
We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for the postwar United States economy, before and after Volcker's appointment as Fed Chairman in 1979. Our results point to substantial differences in the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest rate policy in the Volcker-Greenspan period appears to have been much more sensitive to changes in expected inflation than in the pre-Volcker period. We then compare some of th…
Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility
We explore the implications of asset price volatility for the management of monetary policy.We show that it is desirable for central banks to focus on underlying inflationary pressures.Asset prices become relevant only to the extent they may signal potential inflationary or deflationary forces.Rules that directly target asset prices appear to have undesirable side effects.We base our
NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005
This 20th edition of the NBER Macroeconomics Annual treats many questions at the cutting edge of macroeconomics that are central to current policy debates. The papers and discussions include an analysis of the differential between American and European unemployment rates, with the authors of the paper taking issue with Edward Prescott's view that higher European tax rates are responsible; a provocative account of the relationship between fluctuat…
Markups, Gaps, and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations
In this paper we present a simple, theory-based measure of the variations in aggregate economic efficiency associated with business fluctuations. We decompose this indicator, which we refer to as "the gap", into two constituent parts: a price markup and a wage markup, and show that the latter accounts for the bulk of the fluctuations in our gap measure. Finally, we derive a measure of the welfare costs of business cycles that is directly related …
Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation
We describe some of the main features of the recent vintage of macroeconomic models used for monetary policy evaluation. We point to some of the key differences with respect to the earlier generation of macro models and highlight the insights for policy that these new frameworks have to offer. Our discussion emphasizes two key aspects of the new models: 1) the significant role of expectations of future policy actions in the monetary transmission …
A Phillips Curve with an Ss Foundation
We develop an analytically tractable Phillips curve based on state-dependent pricing. We consider a local approximation around a zero inflation steady state and introduce infrequent idiosyncratic shocks. The resulting Phillips curve is a simple variant of the conventional time-dependent Calvo formulation with important differences. First, the model is able to match the micro evidence on the magnitude and timing of price adjustments. Second, our s…
Unemployment Fluctuations with Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining
A number of authors have recently emphasized that the conventional model of unemployment dynamics due to Mortensen and Pissarides has difficulty accounting for the relatively volatile behavior of labor market activity over the business cycle. We address this issue by modifying the MP framework to allow for staggered multiperiod wage contracting. What emerges is a tractable relation for wage dynamics that is a natural generalization of the period-…
A model of unconventional monetary policy
Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity
We provide evidence on the transmission of monetary policy shocks in a setting with both economic and financial variables. We first show that shocks identified using high frequency surprises around policy announcements as external instruments produce responses in output and inflation that are typical in monetary VAR analysis. We also find, however, that the resulting “modest” movements in short rates lead to “large” movements in credit costs, whi…
What Happened
At the onset of the recent global financial crisis, the workhorse macroeconomic models assumed frictionless financial markets. These frameworks were thus not able to anticipate the crisis, nor to analyze how the disruption of credit markets changed what initially appeared like a mild downturn into the Great Recession. Since that time, an explosion of both theoretical and empirical research has investigated how the financial crisis emerged and how…
Economics (17 obras) · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact (14 obras) · Economic Theory and Policy (12 obras) · Monetary policy (12 obras) · Macroeconomics (11 obras) · Monetary economics (11 obras) · Economic theories and models (8 obras) · Keynesian economics (7 obras) · Econometrics (6 obras) · Microeconomics (6 obras)