Jason Brownlee
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 3877029 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Jason Brownlee |
| PRENOMES | Jason |
| SOBRENOME | Brownlee |
| ASSINATURA | BROWNLEE J |
| AFILIAÇÕES | The University of Texas at Austin |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-2134-4577 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 25 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 417 |
| OBRAS COMO AUTOR | 25 |
| OBRAS COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2002 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2024 |
| ÍNDICE H | 10 |
Foreign-imposed Regime Change and the American War in Afghanistan
Why did America's twenty-year war in Afghanistan fail to establish a self-sustaining non-Taliban government? Analysts have cited cultural obstacles in Afghanistan, bureaucratic inertia in Washington, and a lack of strategic commitment, in part because Iraq dominated national security policy. Such claims tend to draw evidence from Germany, Japan, and Iraq, places where the U.S. military achieved some measure of success establishing pro-American go…
A Quiet Consensus
The respondents to our essay generally agree with us about the endurance of wealthy democracies, but they pose three chief objections: 1) the results reported may be unreliable because our study failed to distinguish breakdowns of less impact from categorical shifts in which autocracy displaces democracy, 2) claims of recent democratic survival are premature because the erosive effects of democratic backsliding are gathering beneath the surface, …
Why Democracies Survive
Experts worry that de facto single-person regimes in previous multiparty states (Russia, Turkey, Venezuela) and norm-defiance in existing democracies (Brazil, Hungary, the United States) signal a coming authoritarian age. Without examining the broader record, however, it is hard to know whether such tremors presage a global convulsion. A century's worth of evidence (1920–2019) shows that contemporary democracies are sturdier than they look. Above…
Cognitive Shortcuts and Public Support for Intervention
Scholars of public opinion on military intervention agree that survey respondents make judgments from limited information. Yet researchers still question whether ordinary Americans reflect elite attitudes or instead reach their own “pretty prudent” conclusions from the stated principal policy objective (PPO). This article adjudicates the debate while incorporating lessons from the study of bounded rationality. Evidence comes from an original data…
Social Relationships and the Prevention of Anti-Christian Violence in Egypt
Institutionalist accounts of sectarian and ethnic conflict tend to emphasize national divisions. For the "master cleavages" of identity politics to shape behavior, however, they must be reproduced at the local level. Otherwise, citizens will not experience private disagreements in terms of officially promoted differences. This finding comes from extensive fieldwork on collective assaults upon Christians in Qena, Egypt. The Egyptian state favors M…
The limited reach of authoritarian powers
Authoritarian states often command tremendous resources, but their ability to fundamentally change regimes abroad remains in question. Proponents of an "authoritarian resurgence" have speculated that China and Russia are rolling back democracy around the world, much like fascist powers in the interwar period. By contrast, the introductory article of this special issue theorizes that current authoritarian powers are not catalyzing autocracy far af…
From Dynamic Events to Deep Causes
Attempting to understand the complexities of the Arab Spring is a challenge both methodologically and evidentially. Over a three year period we evolved a problem-driven attempt at theory building and came to see historically rooted structural factors as more satisfying explanatory variables than some of the more proximate arguments proposed to explain the causes and consequences of the Arab Spring. We found that antecedent variables could account…
Arab Spring
Several years after the Arab Spring began, democracy remains elusive in the Middle East. The Arab Spring that resides in the popular imagination is one in which a wave of mass mobilization swept the broader Middle East, toppled dictators, and cleared the way for democracy. The reality is that few Arab countries have experienced anything of the sort. While Tunisia made progress towards some type of constitutionally entrenched participatory rule, t…
Tracking the “Arab Spring
The Arab Spring startled all Arab autocrats but toppled few of them. We find there were no structural preconditions for popular uprisings, but two variables conditioned whether domestic opposition would succeed. First, oil wealth gave rulers the resources to preempt or repress dissent. Second, a precedent of hereditary succession signaled the loyalty of the coercive apparatus to the ruler. Consequently, mass revolts deposed incumbents in only the…
Democracy prevention
For fifteen years the military regime that took power in Egypt in 1952 enjoyed a contentious but respectful bilateral relationship with the United States. After Israel devastated the Egyptian military in the 1967 War, however, Cairo severed diplomatic ties with Washington. , dipYears later, compatible strategic aims brought the two governments back together. While Anwar Sadat strove to restore Egypt's territory and solvency, the White House sough…
The Transnational Challenge to Arab Freedom
The White House has not repealed the doctrines that in the Middle East prioritize the stability of allied autocracies over democratization
Executive Elections in the Arab World
Although elections loom large in the study of nondemocracies, scholars continue debating what function those elections play. This article sets evidence from the Arab world in a global context to evaluate three theorized roles for elections: safety valve, patronage network, and performance ritual. Executive elections in the Middle East and North Africa remain less common and less competitive than polls in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. This profile …
Peace Before Freedom
The Muslim Brothers
Political observers often describe the Society of Muslim Brothers (SMB) as Egypt’s most powerful opposition movement. That image suggests the group is actively contesting power and trying to supplant incumbents. In fact, the Society’s 80‐year history provides scant evidence that the group seeks to rule Egypt. During the monarchy, immediately after the July Revolution, and under Hosni Mubarak’s presidency, the SMB has eschewed direct control over …
Unrequited Moderation
Portents of Pluralism
The original studies of “competitive authoritarianism” and “hegemonic authoritarianism” inspected the occurrence of hybrid regimes during the 1990s but stopped short of testing their propensity for democratic change. This article assesses the causal effects of hybrid regimes, and the post–cold war period itself, on regime breakdown and democratization. Using a dataset of 158 regimes from 1975 to 2004, and a discrete measure for transitions to ele…
Authoritarianism in an age of democratization
Far from sweeping the globe uniformly, the 'third wave of democratization' left burgeoning republics and resilient dictatorships in its wake. Applying more than a year of original fieldwork in Egypt, Iran, Malaysia, and the Philippines, in this book Jason Brownlee shows that the mixed record of recent democratization is best deciphered through a historical and institutional approach to authoritarian rule. Exposing the internal organizations that …
Bound to Rule
This article revisits the electoral emphasis of hybrid regime studies, arguing instead that the impact of elections is structured by variations in prior political institutions, particularly the dismantlement or maintenance of a ruling party. Duration tests on 136 regimes indicate that ruling parties reduce the chance of regime collapse, while “electoral autocracy” has no significant effect. A paired comparison of Malaysia and the Philippines then…
Authoritarianism in an Age of Democratization
Far from sweeping the globe uniformly, the 'third wave of democratization' left burgeoning republics and resilient dictatorships in its wake. Applying more than a year of original fieldwork in Egypt, Iran, Malaysia, and the Philippines, in this 2007 book Jason Brownlee shows that the mixed record of recent democratization is best deciphered through a historical and institutional approach to authoritarian rule. Exposing the internal organizations …
Can America Nation-Build
Post-9/11 security concerns and the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq have renewed scholarly interest in nation-building as a form of externally fostered democratization. The selected works assess Iraq and its precursors, seeking general lessons for establishing new democracies. They principally conclude that successful nation-building depends on sustained commitments of time, materiel, and manpower. Although this thesis improves upon earlier studies of …
Hereditary Succession in Modern Autocracies
Hereditary succession, the conventional method for preserving monarchies, has also been used to perpetuate republic-style dictatorships. With an original data set of 258 post-World War II nonmonarchical autocrats, the author tests Gordon Tullock's hypothesis that hereditary succession appeals to the ruler and to nonfamilial elites wary of a leadership struggle. The full data and close comparisons of succession outcomes are consistent with Tullock…
Authoritarianism in the Middle East
Introduction: The Deficit in Comparative Perspective - M.P. Posusney. The Reins Of Power. Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Coercive Institutions and Coercive Leaders - E. Bellin. Political Crisis and Restabilization: Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Tunisia - J. Brownlee. Elite Fragmentation in Iran: Contestation Without Democracy - A. Keshavarzian. Challenges To Authoritarian Rule. Multiparty Elections in Six Arab Nations - M.P. Posusney. Party Syste…
And yet they persist
Democratization in the Arab World? The Decline of Pluralism in Mubarak’s Egypt
Discussions of the prospects for expanded freedom in the Arab world often invoke Egypt as a leading candidate for gradual political reform. 1 The country's intermediate level of economic development, its extensive array of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and its multiparty system all seem to favor a democratic future. President Hosni Mubarak himself recently claimed that Egypt enjoys "all kinds of democracy." But the truth of the matter is …
Low Tide after the Third Wave
Portents of Pluralism
The original studies of “competitive authoritarianism” and “hegemonic authoritarianism” inspected the occurrence of hybrid regimes during the 1990s but stopped short of testing their propensity for democratic change. This article assesses the causal effects of hybrid regimes, and the post–cold war period itself, on regime breakdown and democratization. Using a dataset of 158 regimes from 1975 to 2004, and a discrete measure for transitions to ele…
Hereditary Succession in Modern Autocracies
Hereditary succession, the conventional method for preserving monarchies, has also been used to perpetuate republic-style dictatorships. With an original data set of 258 post-World War II nonmonarchical autocrats, the author tests Gordon Tullock's hypothesis that hereditary succession appeals to the ruler and to nonfamilial elites wary of a leadership struggle. The full data and close comparisons of succession outcomes are consistent with Tullock…
The limited reach of authoritarian powers
Authoritarian states often command tremendous resources, but their ability to fundamentally change regimes abroad remains in question. Proponents of an "authoritarian resurgence" have speculated that China and Russia are rolling back democracy around the world, much like fascist powers in the interwar period. By contrast, the introductory article of this special issue theorizes that current authoritarian powers are not catalyzing autocracy far af…
Tracking the “Arab Spring
The Arab Spring startled all Arab autocrats but toppled few of them. We find there were no structural preconditions for popular uprisings, but two variables conditioned whether domestic opposition would succeed. First, oil wealth gave rulers the resources to preempt or repress dissent. Second, a precedent of hereditary succession signaled the loyalty of the coercive apparatus to the ruler. Consequently, mass revolts deposed incumbents in only the…
Executive Elections in the Arab World
Although elections loom large in the study of nondemocracies, scholars continue debating what function those elections play. This article sets evidence from the Arab world in a global context to evaluate three theorized roles for elections: safety valve, patronage network, and performance ritual. Executive elections in the Middle East and North Africa remain less common and less competitive than polls in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. This profile …
And yet they persist
Why Democracies Survive
Experts worry that de facto single-person regimes in previous multiparty states (Russia, Turkey, Venezuela) and norm-defiance in existing democracies (Brazil, Hungary, the United States) signal a coming authoritarian age. Without examining the broader record, however, it is hard to know whether such tremors presage a global convulsion. A century's worth of evidence (1920–2019) shows that contemporary democracies are sturdier than they look. Above…
Democratization in the Arab World? The Decline of Pluralism in Mubarak’s Egypt
Discussions of the prospects for expanded freedom in the Arab world often invoke Egypt as a leading candidate for gradual political reform. 1 The country's intermediate level of economic development, its extensive array of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and its multiparty system all seem to favor a democratic future. President Hosni Mubarak himself recently claimed that Egypt enjoys "all kinds of democracy." But the truth of the matter is …
Can America Nation-Build
Post-9/11 security concerns and the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq have renewed scholarly interest in nation-building as a form of externally fostered democratization. The selected works assess Iraq and its precursors, seeking general lessons for establishing new democracies. They principally conclude that successful nation-building depends on sustained commitments of time, materiel, and manpower. Although this thesis improves upon earlier studies of …
Low Tide after the Third Wave
Bound to Rule
This article revisits the electoral emphasis of hybrid regime studies, arguing instead that the impact of elections is structured by variations in prior political institutions, particularly the dismantlement or maintenance of a ruling party. Duration tests on 136 regimes indicate that ruling parties reduce the chance of regime collapse, while “electoral autocracy” has no significant effect. A paired comparison of Malaysia and the Philippines then…
Cognitive Shortcuts and Public Support for Intervention
Scholars of public opinion on military intervention agree that survey respondents make judgments from limited information. Yet researchers still question whether ordinary Americans reflect elite attitudes or instead reach their own “pretty prudent” conclusions from the stated principal policy objective (PPO). This article adjudicates the debate while incorporating lessons from the study of bounded rationality. Evidence comes from an original data…
Unrequited Moderation
The Muslim Brothers
Political observers often describe the Society of Muslim Brothers (SMB) as Egypt’s most powerful opposition movement. That image suggests the group is actively contesting power and trying to supplant incumbents. In fact, the Society’s 80‐year history provides scant evidence that the group seeks to rule Egypt. During the monarchy, immediately after the July Revolution, and under Hosni Mubarak’s presidency, the SMB has eschewed direct control over …
Social Relationships and the Prevention of Anti-Christian Violence in Egypt
Institutionalist accounts of sectarian and ethnic conflict tend to emphasize national divisions. For the "master cleavages" of identity politics to shape behavior, however, they must be reproduced at the local level. Otherwise, citizens will not experience private disagreements in terms of officially promoted differences. This finding comes from extensive fieldwork on collective assaults upon Christians in Qena, Egypt. The Egyptian state favors M…
Peace Before Freedom
A Quiet Consensus
The respondents to our essay generally agree with us about the endurance of wealthy democracies, but they pose three chief objections: 1) the results reported may be unreliable because our study failed to distinguish breakdowns of less impact from categorical shifts in which autocracy displaces democracy, 2) claims of recent democratic survival are premature because the erosive effects of democratic backsliding are gathering beneath the surface, …
And yet they persist
Democratization in the Arab World? The Decline of Pluralism in Mubarak’s Egypt
Discussions of the prospects for expanded freedom in the Arab world often invoke Egypt as a leading candidate for gradual political reform. 1 The country's intermediate level of economic development, its extensive array of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and its multiparty system all seem to favor a democratic future. President Hosni Mubarak himself recently claimed that Egypt enjoys "all kinds of democracy." But the truth of the matter is …
Low Tide after the Third Wave
Authoritarianism in the Middle East
Introduction: The Deficit in Comparative Perspective - M.P. Posusney. The Reins Of Power. Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Coercive Institutions and Coercive Leaders - E. Bellin. Political Crisis and Restabilization: Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Tunisia - J. Brownlee. Elite Fragmentation in Iran: Contestation Without Democracy - A. Keshavarzian. Challenges To Authoritarian Rule. Multiparty Elections in Six Arab Nations - M.P. Posusney. Party Syste…
Authoritarianism in an Age of Democratization
Far from sweeping the globe uniformly, the 'third wave of democratization' left burgeoning republics and resilient dictatorships in its wake. Applying more than a year of original fieldwork in Egypt, Iran, Malaysia, and the Philippines, in this 2007 book Jason Brownlee shows that the mixed record of recent democratization is best deciphered through a historical and institutional approach to authoritarian rule. Exposing the internal organizations …
Can America Nation-Build
Post-9/11 security concerns and the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq have renewed scholarly interest in nation-building as a form of externally fostered democratization. The selected works assess Iraq and its precursors, seeking general lessons for establishing new democracies. They principally conclude that successful nation-building depends on sustained commitments of time, materiel, and manpower. Although this thesis improves upon earlier studies of …
Hereditary Succession in Modern Autocracies
Hereditary succession, the conventional method for preserving monarchies, has also been used to perpetuate republic-style dictatorships. With an original data set of 258 post-World War II nonmonarchical autocrats, the author tests Gordon Tullock's hypothesis that hereditary succession appeals to the ruler and to nonfamilial elites wary of a leadership struggle. The full data and close comparisons of succession outcomes are consistent with Tullock…
Authoritarianism in an age of democratization
Far from sweeping the globe uniformly, the 'third wave of democratization' left burgeoning republics and resilient dictatorships in its wake. Applying more than a year of original fieldwork in Egypt, Iran, Malaysia, and the Philippines, in this book Jason Brownlee shows that the mixed record of recent democratization is best deciphered through a historical and institutional approach to authoritarian rule. Exposing the internal organizations that …
Bound to Rule
This article revisits the electoral emphasis of hybrid regime studies, arguing instead that the impact of elections is structured by variations in prior political institutions, particularly the dismantlement or maintenance of a ruling party. Duration tests on 136 regimes indicate that ruling parties reduce the chance of regime collapse, while “electoral autocracy” has no significant effect. A paired comparison of Malaysia and the Philippines then…
Portents of Pluralism
The original studies of “competitive authoritarianism” and “hegemonic authoritarianism” inspected the occurrence of hybrid regimes during the 1990s but stopped short of testing their propensity for democratic change. This article assesses the causal effects of hybrid regimes, and the post–cold war period itself, on regime breakdown and democratization. Using a dataset of 158 regimes from 1975 to 2004, and a discrete measure for transitions to ele…
The Muslim Brothers
Political observers often describe the Society of Muslim Brothers (SMB) as Egypt’s most powerful opposition movement. That image suggests the group is actively contesting power and trying to supplant incumbents. In fact, the Society’s 80‐year history provides scant evidence that the group seeks to rule Egypt. During the monarchy, immediately after the July Revolution, and under Hosni Mubarak’s presidency, the SMB has eschewed direct control over …
Unrequited Moderation
The Transnational Challenge to Arab Freedom
The White House has not repealed the doctrines that in the Middle East prioritize the stability of allied autocracies over democratization
Executive Elections in the Arab World
Although elections loom large in the study of nondemocracies, scholars continue debating what function those elections play. This article sets evidence from the Arab world in a global context to evaluate three theorized roles for elections: safety valve, patronage network, and performance ritual. Executive elections in the Middle East and North Africa remain less common and less competitive than polls in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. This profile …
Peace Before Freedom
Democracy prevention
For fifteen years the military regime that took power in Egypt in 1952 enjoyed a contentious but respectful bilateral relationship with the United States. After Israel devastated the Egyptian military in the 1967 War, however, Cairo severed diplomatic ties with Washington. , dipYears later, compatible strategic aims brought the two governments back together. While Anwar Sadat strove to restore Egypt's territory and solvency, the White House sough…
Tracking the “Arab Spring
The Arab Spring startled all Arab autocrats but toppled few of them. We find there were no structural preconditions for popular uprisings, but two variables conditioned whether domestic opposition would succeed. First, oil wealth gave rulers the resources to preempt or repress dissent. Second, a precedent of hereditary succession signaled the loyalty of the coercive apparatus to the ruler. Consequently, mass revolts deposed incumbents in only the…
Arab Spring
Several years after the Arab Spring began, democracy remains elusive in the Middle East. The Arab Spring that resides in the popular imagination is one in which a wave of mass mobilization swept the broader Middle East, toppled dictators, and cleared the way for democracy. The reality is that few Arab countries have experienced anything of the sort. While Tunisia made progress towards some type of constitutionally entrenched participatory rule, t…
From Dynamic Events to Deep Causes
Attempting to understand the complexities of the Arab Spring is a challenge both methodologically and evidentially. Over a three year period we evolved a problem-driven attempt at theory building and came to see historically rooted structural factors as more satisfying explanatory variables than some of the more proximate arguments proposed to explain the causes and consequences of the Arab Spring. We found that antecedent variables could account…
The limited reach of authoritarian powers
Authoritarian states often command tremendous resources, but their ability to fundamentally change regimes abroad remains in question. Proponents of an "authoritarian resurgence" have speculated that China and Russia are rolling back democracy around the world, much like fascist powers in the interwar period. By contrast, the introductory article of this special issue theorizes that current authoritarian powers are not catalyzing autocracy far af…
Social Relationships and the Prevention of Anti-Christian Violence in Egypt
Institutionalist accounts of sectarian and ethnic conflict tend to emphasize national divisions. For the "master cleavages" of identity politics to shape behavior, however, they must be reproduced at the local level. Otherwise, citizens will not experience private disagreements in terms of officially promoted differences. This finding comes from extensive fieldwork on collective assaults upon Christians in Qena, Egypt. The Egyptian state favors M…
Cognitive Shortcuts and Public Support for Intervention
Scholars of public opinion on military intervention agree that survey respondents make judgments from limited information. Yet researchers still question whether ordinary Americans reflect elite attitudes or instead reach their own “pretty prudent” conclusions from the stated principal policy objective (PPO). This article adjudicates the debate while incorporating lessons from the study of bounded rationality. Evidence comes from an original data…
A Quiet Consensus
The respondents to our essay generally agree with us about the endurance of wealthy democracies, but they pose three chief objections: 1) the results reported may be unreliable because our study failed to distinguish breakdowns of less impact from categorical shifts in which autocracy displaces democracy, 2) claims of recent democratic survival are premature because the erosive effects of democratic backsliding are gathering beneath the surface, …
Why Democracies Survive
Experts worry that de facto single-person regimes in previous multiparty states (Russia, Turkey, Venezuela) and norm-defiance in existing democracies (Brazil, Hungary, the United States) signal a coming authoritarian age. Without examining the broader record, however, it is hard to know whether such tremors presage a global convulsion. A century's worth of evidence (1920–2019) shows that contemporary democracies are sturdier than they look. Above…
Foreign-imposed Regime Change and the American War in Afghanistan
Why did America's twenty-year war in Afghanistan fail to establish a self-sustaining non-Taliban government? Analysts have cited cultural obstacles in Afghanistan, bureaucratic inertia in Washington, and a lack of strategic commitment, in part because Iraq dominated national security policy. Such claims tend to draw evidence from Germany, Japan, and Iraq, places where the U.S. military achieved some measure of success establishing pro-American go…
Political science (23 obras) · Politics (19 obras) · Law (18 obras) · Law (16 obras) · Political economy (16 obras) · Economics (15 obras) · Democracy (14 obras) · Political Conflict and Governance (14 obras) · Development economics (11 obras) · Sociology (11 obras)