Karen Sebold

Dados Biográficos

ID4122447
NOMEKaren Sebold
PRENOMESKaren
SOBRENOMESebold
ASSINATURASEBOLD K
AFILIAÇÕESUniversity of Arkansas at Fayetteville
ORCID0009-0002-3862-5025
VERIFICADOSim
TOTAL DE OBRAS7
TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES4
TOTAL COMO AUTOR7
TOTAL COMO EDITOR0
PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO2012
ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO2026
ÍNDICE H1

  • The Decline of Access Donors in Funding National Nominating Conventions

    Open AccessKaren Sebold, Eric Heberlig et al.ARTICLEPS Political Science & Politics2026

    The US major-party presidential nominating conventions are an essential platform for a political party’s branding and messaging for upcoming presidential and congressional elections. The conventions also can provide revenue and media attention to their host cities and, consequently, convention fundraising has grown substantially in recent decades. Convention fundraising rules were changed in 2014, tripling the limit for contributions to a party’s…

  • Forecasting the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination

    Open AccessAndrew J Dowdle, Randall E Adkins et al.ARTICLEPS Political Science & Politics2024

    Donald Trump’s bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination is unique in that no former president since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 has sought the nomination of their political party, nor has a candidate sought the nomination while facing multiple criminal indictments. With data from previous nomination cycles, we use presidential nominations from 1980 to 2020 to create a forecast for the 2024 Republican primaries. The variables in the equa…

  • Fundamentals Matter

    Open AccessAndrew J Dowdle, Randall E Adkins et al.ARTICLEPS Political Science & Politics2020Referências: 12

    Previous studies used pre-primary variables (e.g., endorsements, national polls, and fundraising) and momentum variables from the Iowa and New Hampshire contests to predict presidential nomination outcomes. Yet, races with no elite favorite and no clear frontrunner in polls, such as in the 2020 Democratic race, are more difficult to forecast. We replicate and extend two forecasting models from 1980 to 2016 used by Dowdle et al. (2016) to predict …

  • Forecasting Presidential Nominations in 2016

    Open AccessAndrew J Dowdle, Randall E Adkins et al.ARTICLEPS Political Science & Politics2016Referências: 16

    A number of scholars successfully modeled and predicted presidential nomination outcomes from 1996–2008. However, dramatic changes occurred in subsequent years that would seem to make replicating these results challenging at best. Building on those earlier studies, we utilize a series of OLS models that included measures of preprimary resources and early campaign successes or failures to forecast that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump would win th…

  • Party cohesion in presidential races

    Open AccessSong Yang, Scott Limbocker et al.ARTICLEParty Politics2015Citada por: 4Referências: 19

    Scholars have long been examining the presidential nomination process in the United States. In addition to studies considering the selection mechanism itself, there has been a movement towards analysing the contest even before voting begins. Campaign finance allows for a reliable and valid means to examine the year prior to the nomination with data that are not just vast in quantity but also consistent across time. Donors who gave to multiple cam…

  • The Invisible Hands of Political Parties in Presidential Elections

    Open AccessAndrew Dowdle, Andrew J Dowdle et al.BOOKInvisible Hands of Political…2013

    This book looks at networks of individual donors during early stages of presidential primary electons to determine party unity. It directly challenges the commonly-held perception that a "divisive" pr

  • The Political Geography of Campaign Finance

    Open AccessKaren Sebold, Scott Limbocker et al.ARTICLEPS Political Science & Politics2012Referências: 9

    In fundraising, potential candidates who do not collect sizable amounts of “early money” may be effectively eliminated even before the start of the Iowa Caucus. This winnowing raises concern about the impact money has on narrowing the field of candidates from whom voters can choose. To better grasp patterns of successful fundraising, we explore where candidates obtain funds during the preprimary and primary periods. We use individual contribution…