Jonas Jägermeyr

Dados Biográficos

ID	4621844
NOME	Jonas Jägermeyr
PRENOMES	Jonas
SOBRENOME	Jägermeyr
ASSINATURA	JÄGERMEYR J
AFILIAÇÕES	Goddard Institute for Space Studies
ORCID	0000-0002-8368-0018
VERIFICADO	Sim
TOTAL DE OBRAS	28
TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES	26
TOTAL COMO AUTOR	28
TOTAL COMO EDITOR	0
PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO	2013
ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO	2025
ÍNDICE H	2

Global warming increases the risk of crop yield failures driven by climate oscillations
Open AccessLinchao Li, Bin Wang et al.ARTICLEOne Earth2025
Potential expansion of wheat planting areas driven by climate warming offsets yield losses and enhances global production
Open AccessJiahui Cong, Chuang Zhao et al.ARTICLEOne Earth2025
Crop models for future food systems
Open AccessRogério de Souza Nóia Júnior, Rogério de S Nóia-Júnior et al.ARTICLEOne Earth2025
Stratospheric aerosol climate intervention could reduce crop nutritional value
Open AccessB E Clark, Alan Robock et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2025
The deliberate addition of sulfur dioxide in the stratosphere to form reflective sulfate aerosols, reflect sunlight, and reduce surface temperatures is increasingly being considered as an option for minimizing the impacts of climate change. This strategy would create an unprecedented climate where the relationship between surface temperature and carbon dioxide concentration is decoupled. The implications of stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI…
Bundling measures for food systems transformation
Open AccessMarina Sundiang, Thais Diniz Oliveira et al.ARTICLEThe Lancet Planetary Health2025Referências: 9
Human heat stress could offset potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production under a high-emissions scenario
Open AccessAnton Orlov, Jonas Jägermeyr et al.ARTICLEOne Earth2024
Climate change can significantly impact agriculture, leading to food security challenges. Most previous studies have investigated the direct climate impact on crops while neglecting the impact of heat stress on agricultural labor. Here, we assess the economic consequences of climate impacts on four major crops—maize, soybean, wheat, and rice—for scenarios involving low and high greenhouse gas emissions. Our analysis is based on the output from a …
Critical overview of the implications of a global protein transition in the face of climate change
Open AccessChristie L Lumsden, Jonas Jägermeyr et al.ARTICLEOne Earth2024
Current dietary protein production and consumption are depleting resources, degrading the environment, and fueling chronic diseases. These human and environmental impacts ignite intense debate on how to shift away from resource-intensive animal-based proteins. While there is significant research across disciplines on shifting supply-demand aspects, knowledge gaps remain in how to transition to optimize nutrition while reducing bidirectional clima…
Quantifying food security and mitigation risks consequential to climate change impacts on crop yields
Open AccessHermen Luchtenbelt, Jonathan Doelman et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2024
Climate change is expected to impact crop yields globally, with some regions benefiting from favorable conditions and CO 2 fertilization, while others face adverse effects from altered precipitation and higher temperatures. Changes in crop yields can destabilize the global food system and pose challenges to food security. Moreover, crop production is crucial, as biofuels are becoming increasingly important contributors to climate change mitigatio…
Threat of low-frequency high-intensity floods to global cropland and crop yields
Open AccessJichong Han, Zhao Zhang et al.ARTICLENature Sustainability2024Referências: 4
Rising to the challenge
Open AccessBianca Carducci, Jonas Jägermeyr et al.ARTICLEOne Earth2023
Future climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural yields, production, and market
Open AccessChengcheng Fei, Jonas Jägermeyr et al.ARTICLEAnthropocene2023Citada por: 1Referências: 39
Impacts of climate change on global food trade networks
Open AccessJohanna Hedlund, Henrik Carlsen et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2022
Countries’ reliance on global food trade networks implies that regionally different climate change impacts on crop yields will be transmitted across borders. This redistribution constitutes a significant challenge for climate adaptation planning and may affect how countries engage in cooperative action. This paper investigates the long-term (2070–2099) potential impacts of climate change on global food trade networks of three key crops: wheat, ri…
Economic incentives modify agricultural impacts of nuclear war
Open AccessGal Hochman, Hainan Zhang et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2022
A nuclear war using less than 1% of the current global nuclear arsenal, which would inject 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere, could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and significant impacts on agricultural productivity and the economy. These effects would be most severe for the first five years after the nuclear war and may last for more than a decade. This paper calculates how food availability would change by emplo…
Global gridded crop models underestimate yield responses to droughts and heatwaves
Open AccessStefanie Heinicke, Katja Frieler et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2022
Extreme events can lead to crop yield declines, resulting in financial losses and threats to food security, and the frequency and intensity of such events is projected to increase. As global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on agricultural yields, there is a need to understand whether these models are able to reproduce the observed yield declines. We evaluated 13 GGCMs from the Inter-Sectoral Impact M…
Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation
Open AccessAnna Chrysafi, Vili Virkki et al.ARTICLENature Sustainability2022Citada por: 1Referências: 9
Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green…
Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models
Open AccessJonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller et al.ARTICLENature Food2021
Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes
Open AccessWim Thiery, Stefan Lange et al.ARTICLEScience2021
Young generations are severely threatened by climate change
Future climate change significantly alters interannual wheat yield variability over half of harvested areas
Open AccessWeihang Liu, Tao Ye et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2021
Climate change affects the spatial and temporal distribution of crop yields, which can critically impair food security across scales. A number of previous studies have assessed the impact of climate change on mean crop yield and future food availability, but much less is known about potential future changes in interannual yield variability. Here, we evaluate future changes in relative interannual global wheat yield variability (the coefficient of…
Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios
Open AccessChristoph Müller, James Franke et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2021
Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect of that uncertainty on specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey over both climate and impacts models. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty in projected crop yields for maize, spring and winter wheat, rice, and soybean, using a suite of nine crop models and up to 45 CMIP5 and …
Severity of drought and heatwave crop losses tripled over the last five decades in Europe
Open AccessTeresa Bras, Julia Seixas et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2021
Extreme weather disasters (EWDs) can jeopardize domestic food supply and disrupt commodity markets. However, historical impacts on European crop production associated with droughts, heatwaves, floods, and cold waves are not well understood—especially in view of potential adverse trends in the severity of impacts due to climate change. Here, we combine observational agricultural data (FAOSTAT) with an extreme weather disaster database (EM-DAT) bet…
Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries
Open AccessDieter Gerten, Vera Heck et al.ARTICLENature Sustainability2020Citada por: 11Referências: 9
Freshwater requirements of large-scale bioenergy plantations for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C
Open AccessFabian Stenzel, Dieter Gerten et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2019
Limiting mean global warming to well below 2 °C will probably require substantial negative emissions (NEs) within the 21st century. To achieve these, bioenergy plantations with subsequent carbon capture and storage (BECCS) may have to be implemented at a large scale. Irrigation of these plantations might be necessary to increase the yield, which is likely to put further pressure on already stressed freshwater systems. Conversely, the potential of…
Global-scale patterns and determinants of cropping frequency in irrigation dam command areas
Open AccessPhilippe Rufin, Christian Levers et al.ARTICLEGlobal Environmental Change2018Citada por: 2Referências: 8
Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (Isimip2b)
Open AccessKatja Frieler, Stefan Lange et al.ARTICLEGeoscientific Model Development2017
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe th…
Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield
X Wang, Christoph Müller et al.
Irrigation is the largest sector of human water use and an important option for increasing crop production and reducing drought impacts. However, the potential for irrigation to contribute to global crop yields remains uncertain. Here, we quantify this contribution for wheat and maize at global scale by developing a Bayesian framework integrating empirical estimates and gridded global crop models on new maps of the relative difference between att…

Towards a revised planetary boundary for consumptive freshwater use
Open AccessDieter Gerten, Holger Hoff et al.ARTICLECurrent Opinion in Environmental…2013Citada por: 10Referências: 4
Integrated crop water management might sustainably halve the global food gap
Open AccessJonas Jägermeyr, Dieter Gerten et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2016
As planetary boundaries are rapidly being approached, humanity has little room for additional expansion and conventional intensification of agriculture, while a growing world population further spreads the food gap. Ample evidence exists that improved on-farm water management can close water-related yield gaps to a considerable degree, but its global significance remains unclear. In this modeling study we investigate systematically to what extent…
Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (Isimip2b)
Open AccessKatja Frieler, Stefan Lange et al.ARTICLEGeoscientific Model Development2017
In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe th…
Bringing it all together
Open AccessMatti Kummu, Marianela Fader et al.ARTICLECurrent Opinion in Environmental…2017Citada por: 1Referências: 8
Global-scale patterns and determinants of cropping frequency in irrigation dam command areas
Open AccessPhilippe Rufin, Christian Levers et al.ARTICLEGlobal Environmental Change2018Citada por: 2Referências: 8
Freshwater requirements of large-scale bioenergy plantations for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C
Open AccessFabian Stenzel, Dieter Gerten et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2019
Limiting mean global warming to well below 2 °C will probably require substantial negative emissions (NEs) within the 21st century. To achieve these, bioenergy plantations with subsequent carbon capture and storage (BECCS) may have to be implemented at a large scale. Irrigation of these plantations might be necessary to increase the yield, which is likely to put further pressure on already stressed freshwater systems. Conversely, the potential of…
Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries
Open AccessDieter Gerten, Vera Heck et al.ARTICLENature Sustainability2020Citada por: 11Referências: 9
Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models
Open AccessJonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller et al.ARTICLENature Food2021
Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes
Open AccessWim Thiery, Stefan Lange et al.ARTICLEScience2021
Young generations are severely threatened by climate change
Future climate change significantly alters interannual wheat yield variability over half of harvested areas
Open AccessWeihang Liu, Tao Ye et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2021
Climate change affects the spatial and temporal distribution of crop yields, which can critically impair food security across scales. A number of previous studies have assessed the impact of climate change on mean crop yield and future food availability, but much less is known about potential future changes in interannual yield variability. Here, we evaluate future changes in relative interannual global wheat yield variability (the coefficient of…
Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios
Open AccessChristoph Müller, James Franke et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2021
Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect of that uncertainty on specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey over both climate and impacts models. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty in projected crop yields for maize, spring and winter wheat, rice, and soybean, using a suite of nine crop models and up to 45 CMIP5 and …
Severity of drought and heatwave crop losses tripled over the last five decades in Europe
Open AccessTeresa Bras, Julia Seixas et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2021
Extreme weather disasters (EWDs) can jeopardize domestic food supply and disrupt commodity markets. However, historical impacts on European crop production associated with droughts, heatwaves, floods, and cold waves are not well understood—especially in view of potential adverse trends in the severity of impacts due to climate change. Here, we combine observational agricultural data (FAOSTAT) with an extreme weather disaster database (EM-DAT) bet…
Impacts of climate change on global food trade networks
Open AccessJohanna Hedlund, Henrik Carlsen et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2022
Countries’ reliance on global food trade networks implies that regionally different climate change impacts on crop yields will be transmitted across borders. This redistribution constitutes a significant challenge for climate adaptation planning and may affect how countries engage in cooperative action. This paper investigates the long-term (2070–2099) potential impacts of climate change on global food trade networks of three key crops: wheat, ri…
Economic incentives modify agricultural impacts of nuclear war
Open AccessGal Hochman, Hainan Zhang et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2022
A nuclear war using less than 1% of the current global nuclear arsenal, which would inject 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere, could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and significant impacts on agricultural productivity and the economy. These effects would be most severe for the first five years after the nuclear war and may last for more than a decade. This paper calculates how food availability would change by emplo…
Global gridded crop models underestimate yield responses to droughts and heatwaves
Open AccessStefanie Heinicke, Katja Frieler et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2022
Extreme events can lead to crop yield declines, resulting in financial losses and threats to food security, and the frequency and intensity of such events is projected to increase. As global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are commonly used to assess climate change impacts on agricultural yields, there is a need to understand whether these models are able to reproduce the observed yield declines. We evaluated 13 GGCMs from the Inter-Sectoral Impact M…
Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitation
Open AccessAnna Chrysafi, Vili Virkki et al.ARTICLENature Sustainability2022Citada por: 1Referências: 9
Several safe boundaries of critical Earth system processes have already been crossed due to human perturbations; not accounting for their interactions may further narrow the safe operating space for humanity. Using expert knowledge elicitation, we explored interactions among seven variables representing Earth system processes relevant to food production, identifying many interactions little explored in Earth system literature. We found that green…
Rising to the challenge
Open AccessBianca Carducci, Jonas Jägermeyr et al.ARTICLEOne Earth2023
Future climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural yields, production, and market
Open AccessChengcheng Fei, Jonas Jägermeyr et al.ARTICLEAnthropocene2023Citada por: 1Referências: 39
Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield
X Wang, Christoph Müller et al.
Irrigation is the largest sector of human water use and an important option for increasing crop production and reducing drought impacts. However, the potential for irrigation to contribute to global crop yields remains uncertain. Here, we quantify this contribution for wheat and maize at global scale by developing a Bayesian framework integrating empirical estimates and gridded global crop models on new maps of the relative difference between att…
Human heat stress could offset potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production under a high-emissions scenario
Open AccessAnton Orlov, Jonas Jägermeyr et al.ARTICLEOne Earth2024
Climate change can significantly impact agriculture, leading to food security challenges. Most previous studies have investigated the direct climate impact on crops while neglecting the impact of heat stress on agricultural labor. Here, we assess the economic consequences of climate impacts on four major crops—maize, soybean, wheat, and rice—for scenarios involving low and high greenhouse gas emissions. Our analysis is based on the output from a …
Critical overview of the implications of a global protein transition in the face of climate change
Open AccessChristie L Lumsden, Jonas Jägermeyr et al.ARTICLEOne Earth2024
Current dietary protein production and consumption are depleting resources, degrading the environment, and fueling chronic diseases. These human and environmental impacts ignite intense debate on how to shift away from resource-intensive animal-based proteins. While there is significant research across disciplines on shifting supply-demand aspects, knowledge gaps remain in how to transition to optimize nutrition while reducing bidirectional clima…
Quantifying food security and mitigation risks consequential to climate change impacts on crop yields
Open AccessHermen Luchtenbelt, Jonathan Doelman et al.ARTICLEEnvironmental Research Letters2024
Climate change is expected to impact crop yields globally, with some regions benefiting from favorable conditions and CO 2 fertilization, while others face adverse effects from altered precipitation and higher temperatures. Changes in crop yields can destabilize the global food system and pose challenges to food security. Moreover, crop production is crucial, as biofuels are becoming increasingly important contributors to climate change mitigatio…
Threat of low-frequency high-intensity floods to global cropland and crop yields
Open AccessJichong Han, Zhao Zhang et al.ARTICLENature Sustainability2024Referências: 4
Global warming increases the risk of crop yield failures driven by climate oscillations
Open AccessLinchao Li, Bin Wang et al.ARTICLEOne Earth2025
Potential expansion of wheat planting areas driven by climate warming offsets yield losses and enhances global production
Open AccessJiahui Cong, Chuang Zhao et al.ARTICLEOne Earth2025