A J Pitman
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 5234475 |
|---|---|
| NOME | A J Pitman |
| PRENOMES | A J |
| SOBRENOME | Pitman |
| ASSINATURA | PITMAN A J |
| AFILIAÇÕES | UNSW Sydney |
| ORCID | 0000-0003-0604-3274 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 26 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 59 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 26 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1997 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2025 |
| ÍNDICE H | 4 |
Reconsidering the macroeconomic damage of severe warming
Projections of macroeconomic damage from future climate change tend to suggest mild to moderate impacts. This can lead to welfare-optimal climate policies in integrated assessment models (IAMs) that recommend very slow emissions reductions over the coming decades, in sharp contrast with the ambitions of the Paris Agreement. These econometric models assume that weather impacting a single country is all that affects the economy of that country. We …
Linking physical climate risk with mandatory business risk disclosure requirements
Mandatory disclosure of physical climate risks to businesses is planned or being implemented in many countries. This raises the question, how viable is it to link increasing physical climate risk, expressed as extreme events, to an individual business. We demonstrate how the characteristics of increasing frequency, magnitude and duration of extreme events impact a hypothetical business supply chain using the analogy of a spider’s web, where an ex…
Predicting Australian energy demand variability using weather data and machine learning
Managing energy systems requires understanding the variability of energy demand, which on daily timescales is driven primarily by the weather. Historical records of demand typically cover 1–2 decades which may be too short to capture the range of possible demand, particularly for a climate with high interannual variability such as that of Australia. Predicting demand using long records of weather data opens the possibility of more robustly estima…
Can climate knowledge enable Warragamba Dam, Sydney, Australia to be used to manage flood risk
Dams that serve a dual purpose of water supply and flood mitigation operate to maintain a defined full supply level of water that balances the two conflicting requirements. To optimize the use of available storage space, the full supply level may be adjusted to reflect changing risks of future water shortages and future flood inflows based on known seasonal variations and current observations. The Warragamba Dam in eastern Australia is located up…
Comparison of a novel machine learning approach with dynamical downscaling for Australian precipitation
Dynamical downscaling (DD), and machine learning (ML) based techniques have been widely applied to downscale global climate models and reanalyses to a finer spatiotemporal scale, but the relative performance of these two methods remains unclear. We implement an ML regression approach using a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) with a novel loss function to downscale coarse-resolution precipitation from the Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric high-resoluti…
Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia
The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, the radiative power of the fires, and the extraordinary number of fires that developed into extreme pyroconvective events were all unmatched in the historical record. Australia’s hottest and driest year on record, 2019, was characterised by exceptionally dry fuel loads that primed the landscape to burn when exposed to dangerous…
Business risk and the emergence of climate analytics
Exploring the stationarity of Australian temperature, precipitation and pan evaporation records over the last century
Australia has experienced regional climate trends over recent decades with consequences for agriculture and water management. We investigate the statistical significance of these trends at annual and seasonal scales using the concept of stationarity. Using long-term high quality regional-scale observations of temperature, precipitation and pan evaporation (a measure of atmospheric evaporative demand), we find that despite highly significant incre…
Climate change impact on energy demand in building-urban-atmosphere simulations through the 21st century
Social, technological and climatic changes will transform the way energy is consumed over the 21st century, with important implications for energy networks and greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we develop a method to efficiently explore climate-energy interactions under various scenarios of climate, urban infrastructure and technological change. We couple the Urban Climate and Energy Model with the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model as a full-height…
The resilience of Australian wind energy to climate change
The Paris Agreement limits global average temperature rise to 2oC and commits to pursuing efforts in limiting warming to 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels. This will require rapid reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases and the eventual decarbonisation of the global economy. Wind energy is an established technology to help achieve emissions reductions, with a cumulative global installed capacity of 486 GW (2016). Focusing on Australia, we…
Local land–atmosphere feedbacks limit irrigation demand
Irrigation is known to influence regional climate but most studies forecast and simulate irrigation with offline (i.e. land only) models. Using south eastern Australia as a test bed, we demonstrate that irrigation demand is fundamentally different between land only and land-atmosphere simulations. While irrigation only has a small impact on maximum temperature, the semi-arid environment experiences near surface moistening in coupled simulations o…
Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets
Scale dependence of the simulated impact of Amazonian deforestation on regional climate
Using a global climate model, Amazonian deforestation experiments are conducted perturbing 1, 9, 25, 81 and 121 grid points, each with 5 ensemble members. All experiments show warming and drying over Amazonia. The impact of deforestation on temperature, averaged either over the affected area or a wider area, decreases by a factor of two as the scale of the perturbation increases from 1 to 121 grid points. This is associated with changes in the su…
Land surface models systematically overestimate the intensity, duration and magnitude of seasonal-scale evaporative droughts
Land surface models (LSMs) must accurately simulate observed energy and water fluxes during droughts in order to provide reliable estimates of future water resources.We evaluated 8 different LSMs (14 model versions) for simulating evapotranspiration (ET) during periods of evaporative drought (Edrought) across six flux tower sites.Using an empirically defined Edrought threshold (a decline in ET below the observed 15th percentile), we show that LSM…
Nitrogen and phosphorous limitation reduces the effects of land use change on land carbon uptake or emission
We used an Earth System Model that includes both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycling to simulate the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): a reforestation scenario (RCP4.5) and a deforestation scenario (RCP8.5). For each RCP, we performed simulations with and without LULCC using the carbon (C only) mode or including the full C, N and P cycles (CNP). We show, for the first time,…
Differential Effects of Temperature Extremes on Hospital Admission Rates for Respiratory Disease between Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Australians in the Northern Territory
The health gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians may be exacerbated by climate change if temperature extremes have disproportionate adverse effects on Indigenous people. To explore this issue, we analysed the effect of temperature extremes on hospital admissions for respiratory diseases, stratified by age, Indigenous status and sex, for people living in two different climates zones in the Northern Territory during the period 1993-…
Land use/land cover changes and climate
This article summarizes the changes in landscape structure because of human land management over the last several centuries, and using observed and modeled data, documents how these changes have altered biogeophysical and biogeochemical surface fluxes on the local, mesoscale, and regional scales. Remaining research issues are presented including whether these landscape changes alter large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns far from where the …
Is the allocation of resources towards mitigation and response to fire in Australia optimal
Australia invests significant resources to address the risk of fire in all its forms. This study asks the question: is the current investment strategy cost-effective? This question was approached in two ways: first, through a cross-sectional study of fire statistics from other developed countries and, second, through a structured expert judgment exercise. The former found no significant relationship between the level of investment and losses from…
Total cost of fire in Australia
Fire, an ever present hazard in Australia, causes approximately 100 fatalities and over 3000 injuries per annum. Significant resources are allocated to mitigate the risk. In this study, we estimate the total cost of fire in Australia for 2005 at AUD$12,000 million or 1.3% of GDP. Comparable studies in the UK, USA, Canada, Denmark and New Zealand are reviewed and show that the cost in these countries ranges between 0.8 and 2% of GDP. Breaking the …
On the role of Geography in Earth System Science
Regions of Strong Coupling Between Soil Moisture and Precipitation
Previous estimates of land-atmosphere interaction (the impact of soil moisture on precipitation) have been limited by a lack of observational data and by the model dependence of computational estimates. To counter the second limitation, a dozen climate-modeling groups have recently performed the same highly controlled numerical experiment as part of a coordinated comparison project. This allows a multimodel estimation of the regions on Earth wher…
An Initial Analysis of River Discharge and Rainfall in Coastal New South Wales, Australia Using Wavelet Transforms
In many coastal catchments of south eastern New South Wales, Australia, changes in river morphology are a response to human impact superimposed on spatial and temporal patterns of variability in precipitation and discharge. Understanding, and preferably quantifying, spatial and temporal patterns of hydrologic variability are essential to understanding natural changes, and to separate these from artificial changes in river systems. Prediction and …
Integrated IT-based Geography Teaching and Learning
Use of information technology (IT) is increasingly common in geography teaching and learning. This paper outlines a still relatively unusual initiative involving the integrated use of a variety of IT-based components across all aspects of a large course unit. Multiple evaluations reveal strongly positive reactions to the IT-based approach and the time and place flexibility offered; there are few technical impediments to, and no detectable gender …
Internet based teaching in geography at Macquarie University
The design of a first year course with enrolments of about 400 students which is delivered using information technology via the Internet or Intranet is reviewed. The course is composed of a variety of information technology based applications including course materials, bulletin boards, email, quizzes, access to the World Wide Web and multimedia packages linked together using a single Internet browser interface. Access statistics through the enti…
Temporal variability of climate in south‐eastern Australia
Inter‐decadal periods of high and low flood activity have been considered to be the dominant factor driving river metamorphosis in catchments along the New South Wales coast. Recent work has questioned the data analysis techniques used in delineating the so‐called flood‐and drought‐dominated regimes (FDRs/DDRs). Concerns have also been raised about the validity of invoking a climatic control for river metamorphosis documented during the post‐Euro…
On the role of Geography in Earth System Science
Land use/land cover changes and climate
This article summarizes the changes in landscape structure because of human land management over the last several centuries, and using observed and modeled data, documents how these changes have altered biogeophysical and biogeochemical surface fluxes on the local, mesoscale, and regional scales. Remaining research issues are presented including whether these landscape changes alter large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns far from where the …
Total cost of fire in Australia
Fire, an ever present hazard in Australia, causes approximately 100 fatalities and over 3000 injuries per annum. Significant resources are allocated to mitigate the risk. In this study, we estimate the total cost of fire in Australia for 2005 at AUD$12,000 million or 1.3% of GDP. Comparable studies in the UK, USA, Canada, Denmark and New Zealand are reviewed and show that the cost in these countries ranges between 0.8 and 2% of GDP. Breaking the …
Temporal variability of climate in south‐eastern Australia
Inter‐decadal periods of high and low flood activity have been considered to be the dominant factor driving river metamorphosis in catchments along the New South Wales coast. Recent work has questioned the data analysis techniques used in delineating the so‐called flood‐and drought‐dominated regimes (FDRs/DDRs). Concerns have also been raised about the validity of invoking a climatic control for river metamorphosis documented during the post‐Euro…
Integrated IT-based Geography Teaching and Learning
Use of information technology (IT) is increasingly common in geography teaching and learning. This paper outlines a still relatively unusual initiative involving the integrated use of a variety of IT-based components across all aspects of a large course unit. Multiple evaluations reveal strongly positive reactions to the IT-based approach and the time and place flexibility offered; there are few technical impediments to, and no detectable gender …
Is the allocation of resources towards mitigation and response to fire in Australia optimal
Australia invests significant resources to address the risk of fire in all its forms. This study asks the question: is the current investment strategy cost-effective? This question was approached in two ways: first, through a cross-sectional study of fire statistics from other developed countries and, second, through a structured expert judgment exercise. The former found no significant relationship between the level of investment and losses from…
Restructuring of Australian higher education
Australian higher education has experienced substantial change since the early 1980s, with a transition to mass higher education, closer alignment to national political objectives, increasing Federal Government control, a growing emphasis on ‘quality’ and ‘value for money’, and organisational restructuring with manifestations ranging from the creation of the Unified National System to the merger or closure of individual departments. At the same t…
Restructuring of Australian higher education
Australian higher education has experienced substantial change since the early 1980s, with a transition to mass higher education, closer alignment to national political objectives, increasing Federal Government control, a growing emphasis on ‘quality’ and ‘value for money’, and organisational restructuring with manifestations ranging from the creation of the Unified National System to the merger or closure of individual departments. At the same t…
Temporal variability of climate in south‐eastern Australia
Inter‐decadal periods of high and low flood activity have been considered to be the dominant factor driving river metamorphosis in catchments along the New South Wales coast. Recent work has questioned the data analysis techniques used in delineating the so‐called flood‐and drought‐dominated regimes (FDRs/DDRs). Concerns have also been raised about the validity of invoking a climatic control for river metamorphosis documented during the post‐Euro…
Internet based teaching in geography at Macquarie University
The design of a first year course with enrolments of about 400 students which is delivered using information technology via the Internet or Intranet is reviewed. The course is composed of a variety of information technology based applications including course materials, bulletin boards, email, quizzes, access to the World Wide Web and multimedia packages linked together using a single Internet browser interface. Access statistics through the enti…
Integrated IT-based Geography Teaching and Learning
Use of information technology (IT) is increasingly common in geography teaching and learning. This paper outlines a still relatively unusual initiative involving the integrated use of a variety of IT-based components across all aspects of a large course unit. Multiple evaluations reveal strongly positive reactions to the IT-based approach and the time and place flexibility offered; there are few technical impediments to, and no detectable gender …
An Initial Analysis of River Discharge and Rainfall in Coastal New South Wales, Australia Using Wavelet Transforms
In many coastal catchments of south eastern New South Wales, Australia, changes in river morphology are a response to human impact superimposed on spatial and temporal patterns of variability in precipitation and discharge. Understanding, and preferably quantifying, spatial and temporal patterns of hydrologic variability are essential to understanding natural changes, and to separate these from artificial changes in river systems. Prediction and …
Regions of Strong Coupling Between Soil Moisture and Precipitation
Previous estimates of land-atmosphere interaction (the impact of soil moisture on precipitation) have been limited by a lack of observational data and by the model dependence of computational estimates. To counter the second limitation, a dozen climate-modeling groups have recently performed the same highly controlled numerical experiment as part of a coordinated comparison project. This allows a multimodel estimation of the regions on Earth wher…
On the role of Geography in Earth System Science
Total cost of fire in Australia
Fire, an ever present hazard in Australia, causes approximately 100 fatalities and over 3000 injuries per annum. Significant resources are allocated to mitigate the risk. In this study, we estimate the total cost of fire in Australia for 2005 at AUD$12,000 million or 1.3% of GDP. Comparable studies in the UK, USA, Canada, Denmark and New Zealand are reviewed and show that the cost in these countries ranges between 0.8 and 2% of GDP. Breaking the …
Land use/land cover changes and climate
This article summarizes the changes in landscape structure because of human land management over the last several centuries, and using observed and modeled data, documents how these changes have altered biogeophysical and biogeochemical surface fluxes on the local, mesoscale, and regional scales. Remaining research issues are presented including whether these landscape changes alter large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns far from where the …
Is the allocation of resources towards mitigation and response to fire in Australia optimal
Australia invests significant resources to address the risk of fire in all its forms. This study asks the question: is the current investment strategy cost-effective? This question was approached in two ways: first, through a cross-sectional study of fire statistics from other developed countries and, second, through a structured expert judgment exercise. The former found no significant relationship between the level of investment and losses from…
Nitrogen and phosphorous limitation reduces the effects of land use change on land carbon uptake or emission
We used an Earth System Model that includes both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycling to simulate the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): a reforestation scenario (RCP4.5) and a deforestation scenario (RCP8.5). For each RCP, we performed simulations with and without LULCC using the carbon (C only) mode or including the full C, N and P cycles (CNP). We show, for the first time,…
Differential Effects of Temperature Extremes on Hospital Admission Rates for Respiratory Disease between Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Australians in the Northern Territory
The health gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians may be exacerbated by climate change if temperature extremes have disproportionate adverse effects on Indigenous people. To explore this issue, we analysed the effect of temperature extremes on hospital admissions for respiratory diseases, stratified by age, Indigenous status and sex, for people living in two different climates zones in the Northern Territory during the period 1993-…
Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets
Scale dependence of the simulated impact of Amazonian deforestation on regional climate
Using a global climate model, Amazonian deforestation experiments are conducted perturbing 1, 9, 25, 81 and 121 grid points, each with 5 ensemble members. All experiments show warming and drying over Amazonia. The impact of deforestation on temperature, averaged either over the affected area or a wider area, decreases by a factor of two as the scale of the perturbation increases from 1 to 121 grid points. This is associated with changes in the su…
Land surface models systematically overestimate the intensity, duration and magnitude of seasonal-scale evaporative droughts
Land surface models (LSMs) must accurately simulate observed energy and water fluxes during droughts in order to provide reliable estimates of future water resources.We evaluated 8 different LSMs (14 model versions) for simulating evapotranspiration (ET) during periods of evaporative drought (Edrought) across six flux tower sites.Using an empirically defined Edrought threshold (a decline in ET below the observed 15th percentile), we show that LSM…
Local land–atmosphere feedbacks limit irrigation demand
Irrigation is known to influence regional climate but most studies forecast and simulate irrigation with offline (i.e. land only) models. Using south eastern Australia as a test bed, we demonstrate that irrigation demand is fundamentally different between land only and land-atmosphere simulations. While irrigation only has a small impact on maximum temperature, the semi-arid environment experiences near surface moistening in coupled simulations o…
The resilience of Australian wind energy to climate change
The Paris Agreement limits global average temperature rise to 2oC and commits to pursuing efforts in limiting warming to 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels. This will require rapid reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases and the eventual decarbonisation of the global economy. Wind energy is an established technology to help achieve emissions reductions, with a cumulative global installed capacity of 486 GW (2016). Focusing on Australia, we…
Exploring the stationarity of Australian temperature, precipitation and pan evaporation records over the last century
Australia has experienced regional climate trends over recent decades with consequences for agriculture and water management. We investigate the statistical significance of these trends at annual and seasonal scales using the concept of stationarity. Using long-term high quality regional-scale observations of temperature, precipitation and pan evaporation (a measure of atmospheric evaporative demand), we find that despite highly significant incre…
Climate change impact on energy demand in building-urban-atmosphere simulations through the 21st century
Social, technological and climatic changes will transform the way energy is consumed over the 21st century, with important implications for energy networks and greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we develop a method to efficiently explore climate-energy interactions under various scenarios of climate, urban infrastructure and technological change. We couple the Urban Climate and Energy Model with the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model as a full-height…
Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia
The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, the radiative power of the fires, and the extraordinary number of fires that developed into extreme pyroconvective events were all unmatched in the historical record. Australia’s hottest and driest year on record, 2019, was characterised by exceptionally dry fuel loads that primed the landscape to burn when exposed to dangerous…
Business risk and the emergence of climate analytics
Can climate knowledge enable Warragamba Dam, Sydney, Australia to be used to manage flood risk
Dams that serve a dual purpose of water supply and flood mitigation operate to maintain a defined full supply level of water that balances the two conflicting requirements. To optimize the use of available storage space, the full supply level may be adjusted to reflect changing risks of future water shortages and future flood inflows based on known seasonal variations and current observations. The Warragamba Dam in eastern Australia is located up…
Comparison of a novel machine learning approach with dynamical downscaling for Australian precipitation
Dynamical downscaling (DD), and machine learning (ML) based techniques have been widely applied to downscale global climate models and reanalyses to a finer spatiotemporal scale, but the relative performance of these two methods remains unclear. We implement an ML regression approach using a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) with a novel loss function to downscale coarse-resolution precipitation from the Bureau of Meteorology Atmospheric high-resoluti…
Linking physical climate risk with mandatory business risk disclosure requirements
Mandatory disclosure of physical climate risks to businesses is planned or being implemented in many countries. This raises the question, how viable is it to link increasing physical climate risk, expressed as extreme events, to an individual business. We demonstrate how the characteristics of increasing frequency, magnitude and duration of extreme events impact a hypothetical business supply chain using the analogy of a spider’s web, where an ex…
Predicting Australian energy demand variability using weather data and machine learning
Managing energy systems requires understanding the variability of energy demand, which on daily timescales is driven primarily by the weather. Historical records of demand typically cover 1–2 decades which may be too short to capture the range of possible demand, particularly for a climate with high interannual variability such as that of Australia. Predicting demand using long records of weather data opens the possibility of more robustly estima…
Climate change (18 obras) · Environmental Science (18 obras) · Geography (18 obras) · Climatology (15 obras) · Geology (13 obras) · Ecology (10 obras) · Meteorology (10 obras) · Climate variability and models (9 obras) · Economics (9 obras) · Atmospheric sciences (8 obras)