S Jay Olshansky
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 5721909 |
|---|---|
| NOME | S Jay Olshansky |
| PRENOMES | S Jay |
| SOBRENOME | Olshansky |
| ASSINATURA | OLSHANSKY S J |
| AFILIAÇÕES | S. JAYOLSHANSKY is Professor of Epidemiology at the School of Public Health, Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at the University of Illinois at Chicago. He has published articles in such journals as The New England Journal of Medicine, JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association, Science, The Scientist, Scientific American, and Health Affairs |
| VERIFICADO | Não |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 20 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 145 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 20 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1986 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2015 |
| ÍNDICE H | 7 |
Resetting Social Security
Social Security retirement benefits were first introduced in 1935 as a financial safety net for a large and rapidly growing older American population. The program was intended to be economically selfsustaining, but population aging and rising life expectancies threaten the program's solvency. The 1983 Social Security Amendments mandated that the full retirement age increase to 67 by the year 2027. In this essay, we present evidence demonstrating …
Individual & Social Strategies to Mitigate the Risks & Expand Opportunities of an Aging America
Increasing life expectancy offers the potential benefit of additional years of productivity and engagement to both individuals and society as a whole. However, it also carries substantial risks. For many, advanced age brings increased disease and disability (including cognitive impairment), financial insecurity, and social isolation. These risks are greatest for those with the least education and financial resources. An aging society must cope wi…
The Demographic Transformation of America
The face of aging in America is about to change. Within the next thirty years, the U.S. population will experience a permanent change in its age structure, and there is reason to believe that cohorts reaching older ages in the future will be far different from those reaching older ages today. In this essay, I explain why life expectancy in the United States is likely to diverge from that experienced by the rest of the developed world; describe re…
Differences In Life Expectancy Due To Race And Educational Differences Are Widening, And Many May Not Catch Up
It has long been known that despite well-documented improvements in longevity for most Americans, alarming disparities persist among racial groups and between the well-educated and those with less education. In this article we update estimates of the impact of race and education on past and present life expectancy, examine trends in disparities from 1990 through 2008, and place observed disparities in the context of a rapidly aging society that i…
The Benefits of Risk Factor Prevention in Americans Aged 51 Years and Older
Objectives. We assessed the potential health and economic benefits of reducing common risk factors in older Americans. Methods. A dynamic simulation model tracked a national cohort of persons 51 and 52 years of age to project their health and medical spending in prevention scenarios for diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and smoking. Results. The gain in life span from successful treatment of a person aged 51 or 52 years for obesity would be 0.85 y…
Longevity in the twenty-first century
Few topics in the world of science are as interesting and personal as the question of how much time will pass between our birth and death, and the status of our health along the way. Those of us working in this line of research appreciate the personal and public policy implications associated with answers to these questions and, like scientists in most fields, we approach our research with enthusiasm and excite ment. There has never been a better…
A Realist View of Aging, Mortality, and Future Longevity
Differences in methodology and philosophy have led scientists analyzing the same mortality data to arrive at very different conclusions about the behavior of mortality trajectories, the nature of aging, and the future of human longevity. This note describes the authors'views on these issues, which taken together can be termed a "realist" position. In this view, life expectancy is unlikely to exceed an average of 85 years absent significant advanc…
A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century
Forecasts of life expectancy are an important component of public policy that influence age-based entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Although the Social Security Administration recently raised its estimates of how long Americans are going to live in the 21st century, current trends in obesity in the United States suggest that these estimates may not be accurate. From our analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, we c…
A Biodemographic Interpretation of Life Span
The life span of individuals and the life expectancy of the populations they comprise have always been topics of interest to scientists and the lay population. In modern times, forecasts of life span and life expectancy have become particularly important public policy issues because of their influence on the future solvency of age-entitlement programs. The authors present a brief discussion of the origin of the notion of life span, discuss its re…
The Quest for Immortality. Science at the Frontiers of Aging
For more than a decade, Dr. Olshansky and Dr. Carnes have been working in the field of aging to identify the biological attributes of species that influence their length of life. Amid countless claims by scientists and the lay population that human life expectancy will continue to rise indefinitely in the future, Olshansky and Carnes have stood fast in their conviction that such claims are without any scientific basis. In their book The Quest for…
On the Biodemography of Aging
Ever since gompertz
In 1825 British actuary Benjamin Gompertz made a simple but important observation that a law of geometrical progression pervades large portions of different tables of mortality for humans. The simple formula he derived describing the exponential rise in death rates between sexual maturity and old age is commonly referred to as the Gompertz equation—a formula that remains a valuable tool in demography and in other scientific disciplines. Gompertz’…
Forecasting US Age Structure and the Future of Social Security
Neil G. Bennett, S. Jay Olshansky, Forecasting US Age Structure and the Future of Social Security: The Impact of Adjustments to Official Mortality Schedules, Population and Development Review, Vol. 22, No. 4 (Dec., 1996), pp. 703-727
Continuing the Search for a Law of Mortality
Scientists have long attempted to explain why closely similar age patterns of death are characteristic of highly diverse human and nonhuman populations. Historical efforts to identify a general "law of mortality" from these patterns that applied across species ended in 1935 when it was declared that such a law did not exist. These early efforts were conducted using mortality curves based on all causes of death. The authors predict that if compari…
Demographic Perspectives on Human Senescence
Demographic approaches to modeling and forecasting mortality are often based on the observation of short-term trends in death statistics and the assumption that future mortality will exhibit patterns similar to those of the recent past. This extrapolation method has led some demographers to conclude that life expectancy in the not too remote future will reach 100 years. Similar predictions follow from another demographic model that establishes a …
Evolutionary Perspectives on Human Senescence
What we call senescence may simply be the inadvertent consequence of surviving beyond the reproductive period. As survival is further extended inevitable declines in physiological function and a proliferation of fatal and nonfatal degenerative diseases that become progressively less amenable to modification would be predicted. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)
Trading Off Longer Life for Worsening Health
This article demonstrates and explains why future declines in mortality will have a diminishing effect on the metric of life expectancy but a large impact on the size of future elderly cohorts. Additionally, the article addresses a hypothesis in which it is argued that morbidity and disability will decline and become compressed into a shorter duration of time before death. Although studies have demonstrated that declining mortality can lead to wo…
In Search of Methuselah
Estimates of the upper limits to human longevity have important policy implications that directly affect forecasts of life expectancy, active life expectancy, population aging, and social and medical programs tied to the size and health status of the elderly population. In the past, investigators have based speculations about the upper limits of human longevity on observations of past trends in mortality. Here the estimate of the upper bound is b…
The demographic components of population aging in China
The Fourth Stage of the Epidemiologic Transition
Gains in longevity in the United States since the mid-nineteenth century occurred as a result of an epidemiologic transition: deaths from infectious diseases were replaced by deaths from degenerative diseases. Recent trends in cause-specific mortality suggest a distinct new stage, one of postponement of degenerative diseases. Projections based on these data must be applied cautiously; their implication for health and social policies are likely to…
Trading Off Longer Life for Worsening Health
This article demonstrates and explains why future declines in mortality will have a diminishing effect on the metric of life expectancy but a large impact on the size of future elderly cohorts. Additionally, the article addresses a hypothesis in which it is argued that morbidity and disability will decline and become compressed into a shorter duration of time before death. Although studies have demonstrated that declining mortality can lead to wo…
Ever since gompertz
In 1825 British actuary Benjamin Gompertz made a simple but important observation that a law of geometrical progression pervades large portions of different tables of mortality for humans. The simple formula he derived describing the exponential rise in death rates between sexual maturity and old age is commonly referred to as the Gompertz equation—a formula that remains a valuable tool in demography and in other scientific disciplines. Gompertz’…
Continuing the Search for a Law of Mortality
Scientists have long attempted to explain why closely similar age patterns of death are characteristic of highly diverse human and nonhuman populations. Historical efforts to identify a general "law of mortality" from these patterns that applied across species ended in 1935 when it was declared that such a law did not exist. These early efforts were conducted using mortality curves based on all causes of death. The authors predict that if compari…
A Realist View of Aging, Mortality, and Future Longevity
Differences in methodology and philosophy have led scientists analyzing the same mortality data to arrive at very different conclusions about the behavior of mortality trajectories, the nature of aging, and the future of human longevity. This note describes the authors'views on these issues, which taken together can be termed a "realist" position. In this view, life expectancy is unlikely to exceed an average of 85 years absent significant advanc…
Demographic Perspectives on Human Senescence
Demographic approaches to modeling and forecasting mortality are often based on the observation of short-term trends in death statistics and the assumption that future mortality will exhibit patterns similar to those of the recent past. This extrapolation method has led some demographers to conclude that life expectancy in the not too remote future will reach 100 years. Similar predictions follow from another demographic model that establishes a …
Evolutionary Perspectives on Human Senescence
What we call senescence may simply be the inadvertent consequence of surviving beyond the reproductive period. As survival is further extended inevitable declines in physiological function and a proliferation of fatal and nonfatal degenerative diseases that become progressively less amenable to modification would be predicted. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)
The Quest for Immortality. Science at the Frontiers of Aging
For more than a decade, Dr. Olshansky and Dr. Carnes have been working in the field of aging to identify the biological attributes of species that influence their length of life. Amid countless claims by scientists and the lay population that human life expectancy will continue to rise indefinitely in the future, Olshansky and Carnes have stood fast in their conviction that such claims are without any scientific basis. In their book The Quest for…
A Biodemographic Interpretation of Life Span
The life span of individuals and the life expectancy of the populations they comprise have always been topics of interest to scientists and the lay population. In modern times, forecasts of life span and life expectancy have become particularly important public policy issues because of their influence on the future solvency of age-entitlement programs. The authors present a brief discussion of the origin of the notion of life span, discuss its re…
The demographic components of population aging in China
The Benefits of Risk Factor Prevention in Americans Aged 51 Years and Older
Objectives. We assessed the potential health and economic benefits of reducing common risk factors in older Americans. Methods. A dynamic simulation model tracked a national cohort of persons 51 and 52 years of age to project their health and medical spending in prevention scenarios for diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and smoking. Results. The gain in life span from successful treatment of a person aged 51 or 52 years for obesity would be 0.85 y…
Forecasting US Age Structure and the Future of Social Security
Neil G. Bennett, S. Jay Olshansky, Forecasting US Age Structure and the Future of Social Security: The Impact of Adjustments to Official Mortality Schedules, Population and Development Review, Vol. 22, No. 4 (Dec., 1996), pp. 703-727
Resetting Social Security
Social Security retirement benefits were first introduced in 1935 as a financial safety net for a large and rapidly growing older American population. The program was intended to be economically selfsustaining, but population aging and rising life expectancies threaten the program's solvency. The 1983 Social Security Amendments mandated that the full retirement age increase to 67 by the year 2027. In this essay, we present evidence demonstrating …
The Demographic Transformation of America
The face of aging in America is about to change. Within the next thirty years, the U.S. population will experience a permanent change in its age structure, and there is reason to believe that cohorts reaching older ages in the future will be far different from those reaching older ages today. In this essay, I explain why life expectancy in the United States is likely to diverge from that experienced by the rest of the developed world; describe re…
The Fourth Stage of the Epidemiologic Transition
Gains in longevity in the United States since the mid-nineteenth century occurred as a result of an epidemiologic transition: deaths from infectious diseases were replaced by deaths from degenerative diseases. Recent trends in cause-specific mortality suggest a distinct new stage, one of postponement of degenerative diseases. Projections based on these data must be applied cautiously; their implication for health and social policies are likely to…
The demographic components of population aging in China
In Search of Methuselah
Estimates of the upper limits to human longevity have important policy implications that directly affect forecasts of life expectancy, active life expectancy, population aging, and social and medical programs tied to the size and health status of the elderly population. In the past, investigators have based speculations about the upper limits of human longevity on observations of past trends in mortality. Here the estimate of the upper bound is b…
Trading Off Longer Life for Worsening Health
This article demonstrates and explains why future declines in mortality will have a diminishing effect on the metric of life expectancy but a large impact on the size of future elderly cohorts. Additionally, the article addresses a hypothesis in which it is argued that morbidity and disability will decline and become compressed into a shorter duration of time before death. Although studies have demonstrated that declining mortality can lead to wo…
Evolutionary Perspectives on Human Senescence
What we call senescence may simply be the inadvertent consequence of surviving beyond the reproductive period. As survival is further extended inevitable declines in physiological function and a proliferation of fatal and nonfatal degenerative diseases that become progressively less amenable to modification would be predicted. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)
Demographic Perspectives on Human Senescence
Demographic approaches to modeling and forecasting mortality are often based on the observation of short-term trends in death statistics and the assumption that future mortality will exhibit patterns similar to those of the recent past. This extrapolation method has led some demographers to conclude that life expectancy in the not too remote future will reach 100 years. Similar predictions follow from another demographic model that establishes a …
Forecasting US Age Structure and the Future of Social Security
Neil G. Bennett, S. Jay Olshansky, Forecasting US Age Structure and the Future of Social Security: The Impact of Adjustments to Official Mortality Schedules, Population and Development Review, Vol. 22, No. 4 (Dec., 1996), pp. 703-727
Continuing the Search for a Law of Mortality
Scientists have long attempted to explain why closely similar age patterns of death are characteristic of highly diverse human and nonhuman populations. Historical efforts to identify a general "law of mortality" from these patterns that applied across species ended in 1935 when it was declared that such a law did not exist. These early efforts were conducted using mortality curves based on all causes of death. The authors predict that if compari…
Ever since gompertz
In 1825 British actuary Benjamin Gompertz made a simple but important observation that a law of geometrical progression pervades large portions of different tables of mortality for humans. The simple formula he derived describing the exponential rise in death rates between sexual maturity and old age is commonly referred to as the Gompertz equation—a formula that remains a valuable tool in demography and in other scientific disciplines. Gompertz’…
On the Biodemography of Aging
A Biodemographic Interpretation of Life Span
The life span of individuals and the life expectancy of the populations they comprise have always been topics of interest to scientists and the lay population. In modern times, forecasts of life span and life expectancy have become particularly important public policy issues because of their influence on the future solvency of age-entitlement programs. The authors present a brief discussion of the origin of the notion of life span, discuss its re…
The Quest for Immortality. Science at the Frontiers of Aging
For more than a decade, Dr. Olshansky and Dr. Carnes have been working in the field of aging to identify the biological attributes of species that influence their length of life. Amid countless claims by scientists and the lay population that human life expectancy will continue to rise indefinitely in the future, Olshansky and Carnes have stood fast in their conviction that such claims are without any scientific basis. In their book The Quest for…
A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century
Forecasts of life expectancy are an important component of public policy that influence age-based entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Although the Social Security Administration recently raised its estimates of how long Americans are going to live in the 21st century, current trends in obesity in the United States suggest that these estimates may not be accurate. From our analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, we c…
A Realist View of Aging, Mortality, and Future Longevity
Differences in methodology and philosophy have led scientists analyzing the same mortality data to arrive at very different conclusions about the behavior of mortality trajectories, the nature of aging, and the future of human longevity. This note describes the authors'views on these issues, which taken together can be termed a "realist" position. In this view, life expectancy is unlikely to exceed an average of 85 years absent significant advanc…
Longevity in the twenty-first century
Few topics in the world of science are as interesting and personal as the question of how much time will pass between our birth and death, and the status of our health along the way. Those of us working in this line of research appreciate the personal and public policy implications associated with answers to these questions and, like scientists in most fields, we approach our research with enthusiasm and excite ment. There has never been a better…
The Benefits of Risk Factor Prevention in Americans Aged 51 Years and Older
Objectives. We assessed the potential health and economic benefits of reducing common risk factors in older Americans. Methods. A dynamic simulation model tracked a national cohort of persons 51 and 52 years of age to project their health and medical spending in prevention scenarios for diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and smoking. Results. The gain in life span from successful treatment of a person aged 51 or 52 years for obesity would be 0.85 y…
Differences In Life Expectancy Due To Race And Educational Differences Are Widening, And Many May Not Catch Up
It has long been known that despite well-documented improvements in longevity for most Americans, alarming disparities persist among racial groups and between the well-educated and those with less education. In this article we update estimates of the impact of race and education on past and present life expectancy, examine trends in disparities from 1990 through 2008, and place observed disparities in the context of a rapidly aging society that i…
Resetting Social Security
Social Security retirement benefits were first introduced in 1935 as a financial safety net for a large and rapidly growing older American population. The program was intended to be economically selfsustaining, but population aging and rising life expectancies threaten the program's solvency. The 1983 Social Security Amendments mandated that the full retirement age increase to 67 by the year 2027. In this essay, we present evidence demonstrating …
Individual & Social Strategies to Mitigate the Risks & Expand Opportunities of an Aging America
Increasing life expectancy offers the potential benefit of additional years of productivity and engagement to both individuals and society as a whole. However, it also carries substantial risks. For many, advanced age brings increased disease and disability (including cognitive impairment), financial insecurity, and social isolation. These risks are greatest for those with the least education and financial resources. An aging society must cope wi…
The Demographic Transformation of America
The face of aging in America is about to change. Within the next thirty years, the U.S. population will experience a permanent change in its age structure, and there is reason to believe that cohorts reaching older ages in the future will be far different from those reaching older ages today. In this essay, I explain why life expectancy in the United States is likely to diverge from that experienced by the rest of the developed world; describe re…
Demography (13 obras) · Global Health Care Issues (13 obras) · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management (13 obras) · Population (13 obras) · Sociology (12 obras) · Medicine (11 obras) · Life expectancy (9 obras) · Economics (8 obras) · Gerontology (8 obras) · Health disparities and outcomes (8 obras)