Julia Critchley
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 5808459 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Julia Critchley |
| PRENOMES | Julia |
| SOBRENOME | Critchley |
| ASSINATURA | CRITCHLEY J |
| AFILIAÇÕES | St George's, University of London |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-5248-4188 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 37 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 8 |
| TOTAL COMO AUTOR | 37 |
| TOTAL COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 1974 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2024 |
| ÍNDICE H | 1 |
Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021
INTRODUCTION: To examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, we estimated excess all-cause mortality in 24 countries for 2020 and 2021, overall and stratified by sex and age. METHODS: Total, age-specific and sex-specific weekly all-cause mortality was collected for 2015-2021 and excess mortality for 2020 and 2021 was calculated by comparing weekly 2020 and 2021 age-standardised mortality rates against expected mortality, estimated b…
Epidemiological impact of public health interventions against diabetes in Qatar
Aims: To predict the epidemiological impact of specific, and primarily structural public health interventions that address lifestyle, dietary, and commuting behaviors of Qataris as well as subsidies and legislation to reduce type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) burden among Qataris. Methods: A deterministic population-based mathematical model was used to investigate the impact of public health interventions on the epidemiology of T2DM among Qataris ag…
Premature mortality attributable to Covid-19
Our results highlight the role of PYLL as a tool to understand the impact of COVID-19 on demographic groups within and across countries, guiding preventive measures to protect these groups under the ongoing pandemic. Continuous monitoring of PYLL is therefore needed to better understand the burden of COVID-19 in terms of premature mortality
Addressing the low consumption of fruit and vegetables in England
Background Most adults do not meet the recommended intake of five portions per day of fruit and vegetables (F&V) in England, but economic analyses of structural policies to change diet are sparse. Methods Using published data from official statistics and meta-epidemiological studies, we estimated the deaths, years-of-life lost (YLL) and the healthcare costs attributable to consumption of F&V below the recommended five portions per day by English …
Forecasting the impact of diabetes mellitus on tuberculosis disease incidence and mortality in India
BACKGROUND: In context of the rapidly expanding diabetes mellitus (DM) epidemic in India and slowly declining tuberculosis (TB) incidence, we aimed to estimate the past, current, and future impact of DM on TB epidemiology. METHODS: An age-structured TB-DM dynamical mathematical model was developed and analyzed to assess the DM-on-TB impact. The model was calibrated using a literature review and meta-analyses. The DM-on-TB impact was analyzed usin…
Context-led capacity building in time of crisis
BACKGROUND: This paper examines one EC-funded multinational project (RESCAP-MED), with a focus on research capacity building (RCB) concerning non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in the Mediterranean Middle East and North Africa. By the project's end (2015), the entire region was engulfed in crisis. OBJECTIVE: Designed before this crisis developed in 2011, the primary purpose of RESCAP-MED was to foster methodological skills needed to conduct multi-d…
Tuberculosis and diabetes
BACKGROUND: Many studies have found an increased risk of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) among those with diabetes mellitus (DM). However, evidence on whether the association is bidirectional remains sparse. This study investigates DM rates among those with and without prior tuberculosis (TB) disease as well as the reverse. METHODS: Data on a UK general practice population, between 2003 and 2009, were obtained from The Health Improvement Network dat…
Estimating the potential contribution of stroke treatments and preventative policies to reduce the stroke and ischemic heart disease mortality in Turkey up to 2032
Our modeling study suggests that effective and evidence-based food policies at the population level could massively contribute to reduction in ischemic stroke and IHD mortality in a decade and deliver bigger gains compared to healthcare based interventions for primary and secondary prevention
Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027
This innovative model provides a reasonably close estimate of T2D prevalence for Tunisia over the 1997-2027 period. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge. Our model predicts that this burden will increase significantly in the next two decades. Tackling obesity, smoking and other T2D risk factors thus needs urgent action. Tunisian decision makers have therefore defined two strategies: obesity reduction and tobacco control. R…
Health system challenges of cardiovascular disease and diabetes in four Eastern Mediterranean countries
This paper presents evidence from research into health system challenges of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes in four Eastern Mediterranean countries: the occupied Palestinian territory, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey. We address two questions. How has the health system in each country been conceptualised and organised to manage the provision of care for those with CVD or diabetes? And what were key concerns about the institutional ability to …
Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Turkey between 1995 and 2008
Reduction in major cardiovascular risk factors explained approximately 42% and improvements in medical and surgical treatments explained some 47% of the CHD mortality fall. These findings emphasize the complimentary value of primary prevention and evidence-based medical treatments in controlling coronary heart disease
Decreasing trends in cardiovascular mortality in Turkey between 1988 and 2008
A decrease in CVD mortality was observed from 1995 onwards in Turkey. The causes need to be explored in detail to inform future policy priorities in noncommunicable disease control
OP56 Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles
Background Despite rapidly declining coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates over the last two decades, CHD mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. Greater risk factor reductions have been achieved in many other countries in Europe and beyond. This study aimed to use a modelling approach to assess the potential impact of alternative future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity l…
OP55 How Many Coronary Heart Disease Deaths in Poland in 2020 might be Prevented by Further Reductions in Population Risk Factor Levels
Background Poland has experienced one of the most dramatic declines in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in recent decades. This decline reflects the use of evidence based treatments and, crucially, population wide changes in diet. Our aim is to explore the potential for further gains in Poland by achieving population wide reductions in smoking, dietary salt and saturated fat intake and physical inactivity levels. Methods A validated a…
OP13 An Economic Evaluation of Salt Reduction Policies to Reduce Cardiovascular Disease in England
Background Dietary salt intake has been causally linked to high blood pressure and increased risk of cardiovascular events. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) causes approximately 35% of total UK deaths, at an estimated annual cost of £30 billion with £14.4 billion spent on treating CVD per year. WHO and NICE have both strongly recommended dietary salt reduction. However, to implement more effective policies in future, UK policy makers will need robust…
OP53 Explaining Scottish Coronary Heart Disease Mortality Trends between 2000 and 2010
Background Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have halved in recent decades. However, CHD remains the largest cause of death in Scotland generating persistent socioeconomic inequalities. A socioeconomic quantification of the prevention and treatment contributions to these mortality reductions might help inform future health policies. Methods IMPACTsec, a previously validated policy model, was used to apportion the Scottish CHD mortality…
Why choice of metric matters in public health analyses
Time-based metrics (such as life years) are generally preferable because they direct attention to the changes in the natural history of disease that are produced by changes in key health determinants. The life-years attached to each death averted will also weight deaths in a way that better reflects social preferences
Increased risk of tuberculosis disease in people with diabetes mellitus
BACKGROUND: The authors aimed to determine whether, and by how much, diabetes mellitus (DM) increases the risk of tuberculosis (TB) and conversely whether TB increases the risk of DM. METHODS: Retrospective cohort analyses using data from two Oxford Record Linkage Study (ORLS) datasets, containing information on hospital admissions and day-case care between 1963 and 1998 (ORLS1) and between 1999 and 2005 (ORLS2), were carried out. The rate ratio …
P1-99 A policy effectiveness-feasibility loop for evidence-based public health policy
Introduction While public health policy could profoundly effect health status 1 , research informing policy-making and implementation is underutilised. 1–5 A range of evidence types are required to support policy-making, and involving policy makers in generating and evaluating evidence is important. This work aims to develop, implement and evaluate an interactive approach to informing policy for preventing and managing cardiovascular disease (CVD…
O1-5.6 Forecasting Diabetes Prevalence
Introduction Current projections of diabetes prevalence are mostly based on demographic change. Explicitly including trends in obesity and other risk factors could improve the accuracy of the projections and assist in evaluating policy options for prevention. Methods The model integrates population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future diabetes prevalence using a Markov approach. Model parameters were derived from the literature, except …
Modelling coronary heart disease mortality in Northern Ireland between 1987 and 2007
Purpose In 1987, Northern Ireland had one of the highest rates of Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in the world. Despite rapidly declining CHD mortality over the last two decades, CHD mortality in Northern Ireland are still among the highest in Europe. The purpose of this study was to use an epidemiological modelling approach to quantify how much of the mortality decline from 1987 to 2007 could be attributed to: (1) changes in population CH…
A policy effectiveness-feasibility loop? Promoting the use of evidence to support the development of healthy public policy
Background Historically, policy initiatives have made variable contributions to improvements in public health. Today there is a growing interest in translating evidence from health research into healthy public policy. Although research evidence may be a component of policy development, it is rarely enough, because policy makers are subject to a wide range of influences. Furthermore, researchers and policy makers usually work within different time…
P03 Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Northern Ireland between 1987 and 2007
Purpose In 1987, Northern Ireland had one of the highest rates of coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in the world. However, CHD mortality has declined substantially over the last 2 decades. The purpose of this study is to determine the contribution of changes in CHD risk factors to CHD mortality decline from 1987 to to 2007. Methods The validated IMPACT CHD mortality model was used in all calculations. We included data describing population s…
Forecasting diabetes prevalence using a simple model
Mice with a mutation of the ζ-associated protein of 70 kDa gene ( skg mutation) are genetically prone to develop autoimmune arthritis, depending on the environment. In a set of mice with the mutation, the amount of ζ-associated protein of 70 kDa protein as well as its tyrosine phosphorylation upon TCR stimulation decreased from +/+, skg /+, skg / skg , to skg /− mice in a stepwise manner. The reduction resulted in graded alterations of thymic pos…
A review of co-morbidity between infectious and chronic disease in Sub Saharan Africa
BACKGROUND: Africa is facing a rapidly growing chronic non-communicable disease burden whilst at the same time experiencing continual high rates of infectious disease. It is well known that some infections increase the risk of certain chronic diseases and the converse. With an increasing dual burden of disease in Sub Saharan Africa the associations between diseases and our understanding of them will become of increased public health importance. A…
Life-Years Gained From Modern Cardiological Treatments and Population Risk Factor Changes in England and Wales, 1981–2000
Objectives. We estimated life-years gained from cardiological treatments and cardiovascular risk factor changes in England and Wales between 1981 and 2000. Methods. We used the IMPACT model to integrate data on the number of coronary heart disease patients, treatment uptake and effectiveness, risk factor trends, and median survival in coronary heart disease patients. Results. Compared with 1981, there were 68230 fewer coronary deaths in 2000. App…
Increased risk of tuberculosis disease in people with diabetes mellitus
BACKGROUND: The authors aimed to determine whether, and by how much, diabetes mellitus (DM) increases the risk of tuberculosis (TB) and conversely whether TB increases the risk of DM. METHODS: Retrospective cohort analyses using data from two Oxford Record Linkage Study (ORLS) datasets, containing information on hospital admissions and day-case care between 1963 and 1998 (ORLS1) and between 1999 and 2005 (ORLS2), were carried out. The rate ratio …
P03 Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Northern Ireland between 1987 and 2007
Purpose In 1987, Northern Ireland had one of the highest rates of coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in the world. However, CHD mortality has declined substantially over the last 2 decades. The purpose of this study is to determine the contribution of changes in CHD risk factors to CHD mortality decline from 1987 to to 2007. Methods The validated IMPACT CHD mortality model was used in all calculations. We included data describing population s…
Substantial potential for reductions in coronary heart disease mortality in the UK through changes in risk factor levels
Study objective: The UK government called for a 40% reduction in cardiovascular disease mortality in those aged under 75 by 2010. This paper examines the potential for cardiovascular risk factor changes to reduce coronary heart disease deaths in Scotland, and then extrapolates the findings to the UK population. Design: Secondary analysis of published data using a previously validated mortality model. The model combines uptake and effectiveness of…
East‐West diplomacy and the European interest
Warning and Response
Substantial potential for reductions in coronary heart disease mortality in the UK through changes in risk factor levels
Study objective: The UK government called for a 40% reduction in cardiovascular disease mortality in those aged under 75 by 2010. This paper examines the potential for cardiovascular risk factor changes to reduce coronary heart disease deaths in Scotland, and then extrapolates the findings to the UK population. Design: Secondary analysis of published data using a previously validated mortality model. The model combines uptake and effectiveness of…
Life-Years Gained From Modern Cardiological Treatments and Population Risk Factor Changes in England and Wales, 1981–2000
Objectives. We estimated life-years gained from cardiological treatments and cardiovascular risk factor changes in England and Wales between 1981 and 2000. Methods. We used the IMPACT model to integrate data on the number of coronary heart disease patients, treatment uptake and effectiveness, risk factor trends, and median survival in coronary heart disease patients. Results. Compared with 1981, there were 68230 fewer coronary deaths in 2000. App…
Explaining the recent decrease in coronary heart disease mortality rates in Ireland, 1985–2000
Study objectives: To examine the proportion of the recent decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths in Ireland attributable to (a) “evidence based” medical and surgical treatments, and (b) changes in major cardiovascular risk factors. Design setting: IMPACT, a previously validated model, was used to combine and analyse data on the use and effectiveness of specific cardiology treatments and risk factor trends, stratified by age and sex. The m…
Explaining the Decrease in U.S. Deaths from Coronary Disease, 1980–2000
BACKGROUND: Mortality from coronary heart disease in the United States has decreased substantially in recent decades. We conducted a study to determine how much of this decrease could be explained by the use of medical and surgical treatments as opposed to changes in cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: We applied a previously validated statistical model, IMPACT, to data on the use and effectiveness of specific cardiac treatments and on changes …
Comparing primary prevention with secondary prevention to explain decreasing Coronary Heart Disease death rates in Ireland, 1985–2000
Compared with secondary prevention, primary prevention achieved a two-fold larger reduction in CHD deaths. Future national CHD policies should therefore prioritize nationwide interventions to promote healthy diets and reduce smoking
A review of co-morbidity between infectious and chronic disease in Sub Saharan Africa
BACKGROUND: Africa is facing a rapidly growing chronic non-communicable disease burden whilst at the same time experiencing continual high rates of infectious disease. It is well known that some infections increase the risk of certain chronic diseases and the converse. With an increasing dual burden of disease in Sub Saharan Africa the associations between diseases and our understanding of them will become of increased public health importance. A…
The impact of demographic and risk factor changes on coronary heart disease deaths in Beijing, 1999–2010
CHD death rates are continuing to rise in Beijing. This reflects worsening risk factor levels, compounded by demographic trends. However, the adverse impact of population ageing on CHD burden could be completely offset by eminently feasible improvements in diet and smoking
The impact of smoking and quitting on household expenditure patterns and medical care costs in China
If a household member smokes, there is less money available for commodities such as education and medical care. Medical care expenditure is substantially higher among households with quitters, as ill-health is the main reason for quitting smoking in China. Smoking impoverishes a substantial number of poorer rural households
Quantifying the association between tuberculosis and diabetes
Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major global health problem. A possible risk factor for TB is diabetes (DM), which is predicted to increase dramatically over the next two decades, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, where TB is widespread. This convergence of two epidemics has highlighted the need for a better understanding of the possible association between the two diseases, and its potential significance for public health. This study…
Explaining the massive decline in coronary heart disease mortality in iceland between 1981 and 2006
the ''drift''. Our predictions are that stroke deaths are likely to continue to decrease up to at least 2015. For 2015, our predictions of deaths from stroke varied from 34 429 to 46 538 (compared with 47 213 deaths in 2005) under the different plausible model scenarios. We also noted that there were some potentially interesting trends in mortality amongst recent birth cohorts. In particular, mortality was higher in older age groups, but the diff…
Choosing metrics in public health assessments
the ''drift''. Our predictions are that stroke deaths are likely to continue to decrease up to at least 2015. For 2015, our predictions of deaths from stroke varied from 34 429 to 46 538 (compared with 47 213 deaths in 2005) under the different plausible model scenarios. We also noted that there were some potentially interesting trends in mortality amongst recent birth cohorts. In particular, mortality was higher in older age groups, but the diff…
A policy effectiveness-feasibility loop? Promoting the use of evidence to support the development of healthy public policy
Background Historically, policy initiatives have made variable contributions to improvements in public health. Today there is a growing interest in translating evidence from health research into healthy public policy. Although research evidence may be a component of policy development, it is rarely enough, because policy makers are subject to a wide range of influences. Furthermore, researchers and policy makers usually work within different time…
P03 Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Northern Ireland between 1987 and 2007
Purpose In 1987, Northern Ireland had one of the highest rates of coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in the world. However, CHD mortality has declined substantially over the last 2 decades. The purpose of this study is to determine the contribution of changes in CHD risk factors to CHD mortality decline from 1987 to to 2007. Methods The validated IMPACT CHD mortality model was used in all calculations. We included data describing population s…
Forecasting diabetes prevalence using a simple model
Mice with a mutation of the ζ-associated protein of 70 kDa gene ( skg mutation) are genetically prone to develop autoimmune arthritis, depending on the environment. In a set of mice with the mutation, the amount of ζ-associated protein of 70 kDa protein as well as its tyrosine phosphorylation upon TCR stimulation decreased from +/+, skg /+, skg / skg , to skg /− mice in a stepwise manner. The reduction resulted in graded alterations of thymic pos…
P1-99 A policy effectiveness-feasibility loop for evidence-based public health policy
Introduction While public health policy could profoundly effect health status 1 , research informing policy-making and implementation is underutilised. 1–5 A range of evidence types are required to support policy-making, and involving policy makers in generating and evaluating evidence is important. This work aims to develop, implement and evaluate an interactive approach to informing policy for preventing and managing cardiovascular disease (CVD…
O1-5.6 Forecasting Diabetes Prevalence
Introduction Current projections of diabetes prevalence are mostly based on demographic change. Explicitly including trends in obesity and other risk factors could improve the accuracy of the projections and assist in evaluating policy options for prevention. Methods The model integrates population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future diabetes prevalence using a Markov approach. Model parameters were derived from the literature, except …
Modelling coronary heart disease mortality in Northern Ireland between 1987 and 2007
Purpose In 1987, Northern Ireland had one of the highest rates of Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in the world. Despite rapidly declining CHD mortality over the last two decades, CHD mortality in Northern Ireland are still among the highest in Europe. The purpose of this study was to use an epidemiological modelling approach to quantify how much of the mortality decline from 1987 to 2007 could be attributed to: (1) changes in population CH…
Why choice of metric matters in public health analyses
Time-based metrics (such as life years) are generally preferable because they direct attention to the changes in the natural history of disease that are produced by changes in key health determinants. The life-years attached to each death averted will also weight deaths in a way that better reflects social preferences
Increased risk of tuberculosis disease in people with diabetes mellitus
BACKGROUND: The authors aimed to determine whether, and by how much, diabetes mellitus (DM) increases the risk of tuberculosis (TB) and conversely whether TB increases the risk of DM. METHODS: Retrospective cohort analyses using data from two Oxford Record Linkage Study (ORLS) datasets, containing information on hospital admissions and day-case care between 1963 and 1998 (ORLS1) and between 1999 and 2005 (ORLS2), were carried out. The rate ratio …
Health system challenges of cardiovascular disease and diabetes in four Eastern Mediterranean countries
This paper presents evidence from research into health system challenges of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes in four Eastern Mediterranean countries: the occupied Palestinian territory, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey. We address two questions. How has the health system in each country been conceptualised and organised to manage the provision of care for those with CVD or diabetes? And what were key concerns about the institutional ability to …
Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Turkey between 1995 and 2008
Reduction in major cardiovascular risk factors explained approximately 42% and improvements in medical and surgical treatments explained some 47% of the CHD mortality fall. These findings emphasize the complimentary value of primary prevention and evidence-based medical treatments in controlling coronary heart disease
Decreasing trends in cardiovascular mortality in Turkey between 1988 and 2008
A decrease in CVD mortality was observed from 1995 onwards in Turkey. The causes need to be explored in detail to inform future policy priorities in noncommunicable disease control
OP56 Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles
Background Despite rapidly declining coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates over the last two decades, CHD mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. Greater risk factor reductions have been achieved in many other countries in Europe and beyond. This study aimed to use a modelling approach to assess the potential impact of alternative future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity l…
Medicine (35 obras) · Environmental health (25 obras) · Internal Medicine (23 obras) · Demography (21 obras) · Population (19 obras) · Coronary heart disease (14 obras) · Internal Medicine (14 obras) · Epidemiology (12 obras) · Diabetes mellitus (11 obras) · Mortality rate (11 obras)