Viljar Veebel
Dados Biográficos
| ID | 5905300 |
|---|---|
| NOME | Viljar Veebel |
| PRENOMES | Viljar |
| SOBRENOME | Veebel |
| ASSINATURA | VEEBEL V |
| AFILIAÇÕES | Baltic Defence College |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-9122-0134 |
| VERIFICADO | Sim |
| TOTAL DE OBRAS | 17 |
| TOTAL DE CITAÇÕES | 24 |
| OBRAS COMO AUTOR | 17 |
| OBRAS COMO EDITOR | 0 |
| PRIMEIRO ANO DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2005 |
| ANO MAIS RECENTE DE PUBLICAÇÃO | 2023 |
| ÍNDICE H | 3 |
President Putin
To choose an effective strategy to stop Putin and Russia’s aggressive ambitions in Ukraine and in wider Eastern Europe, Western political and military leaders need to understand his modus operandi and strategic logic. This article focuses on the benefits of game theory in explaining the behavior of the warring parties in Ukraine. It argues that, from an initial “mad man” or a game of chicken strategy chosen by Putin, he has been forced to gradual…
The Kremlin’s Information Influence Campaigns in Estonia and Estonian Response in the Context of Russian-Western Relations
The Russian Federation has developed a large number of instruments to put pressure on the West using non-conventional means such as cyber attacks, economic tools and information warfare. Using modern IT technologies in its hybrid activities, Russia, much like China or other authoritarian powers, is trying to challenge the current world order. These instruments are particularly evident in the Baltic States. This article uses Estonia as a case stud…
The Soleimani effect
The assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani by the United States has initiated debates about its reverberations on regional and global security. While it could have been a rational policy by the United States on the national level, this action has carried along innovative features defining what is a legally acceptable self-defence that international law would also accommodate. Namely, if the United States can unilaterally and retroactive…
Russia and Western concepts of deterrence, normative power, and sanctions
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the European Union (EU), and the Russian Federation have invested their energy in convincing the opposing side about the legitimacy, importance, and even supremacy of their international political narratives. While the West is committed to value based international order, economic and political sanctions, and credible deterrence, Russia is pushing for a concept of a Eurasian center of power, a multip…
The future of the Russia’s military industry
The aim of the study is to analyse both the achievements and chances of survival of the Russian military industry in the upcoming years. The central question at issue here is whether lack of both innovation and investments as well as the pressure of international sanctions can be compensated by other factors like the drop in prices for older military equipment, generous loans, quick deliveries, support of special forces that comes together with t…
Is Estonian transit sector in trouble after the EU accession and sanctions against Russia? A qualitative study of transit flows
The article investigates the reasons why transit flows have been volatile in Estonia during 2000-2018. Based on academic literature, the authors identify the following potential factors: the effect of the EU accession, EU-Russian economic sanctions; changes in the transit volume of oil products; changes in local infrastructure in Estonia; dynamics of political and economic relations with Russia; changes in market demand and Estonia's inability to…
Baltic visions and dilemmas of territorial defence after 16 years in Nato
The concepts of development of territorial defence forces and capabilities are different within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and are closely linked with specific characteristics of respective nations. Moreover, it is linked with historic circumstances, culture, composition of society and other specific domains. Changes in the internal and international security environment are further affecting decisions about selecting specific …
The Nato “Defender 2020” exercise in the Baltic States
The Defender 2020 military exercise and its related deployments look fairly reasonable and rational from the perspective of the Baltic States and NATO, but when theoretically analyzing its options left, the Russian political leadership could react severely or enact a series of policies from such an initial “provocation”. More importantly, Russia could perceive that the Baltic Sea Region is being transformed into a potential area for confrontation…
Kaliningrad, the Suwalki gap and Russia’s ambitions in the Baltic Region
The current study is motivated by the special role of the Kaliningrad region for both Russia and the NATO Alliance. The aim of the study is to analyse how likely is the outbreak of conflict in the Suwalki gap; which factors either hinder or support the escalation of the tensions between Russia and the Alliance in the region. Both the NATO Alliance and Russia have different advantages and disadvantages with respect to any future escalation in the …
Why it would be strategically rational for Russia to escalate in Kaliningrad and the Suwalki corridor
Russian escalation activities related to the Suwalki corridor and wider Baltic security make a good case for demonstrating how theoretical models could help in terms of damage control in complicated security situations. This is especially true regarding how seemingly rational and morally impeccable options may eventually lead to a painful and costly security dilemma in which the available options become both too costly and publicly unacceptable. …
The bust, the boom and the sanctions in trade relations with Russia
Next to the growing tensions in global economic arena, the challenges for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are often related to Russia's actions and ambitions. Mutual economic relations have been particularly tense at the beginning of the 1990s, in 1995-1997 and then in 2007-2009, when Russia has imposed sanctions against the Baltic countries and has been putting economic, political or propagandist pressure on them. The current "sanctioning war" is …
Forcing Russia to Respect Minsk Protocols with dollar auction-game model
Four years of active international sanctions against Russia have brought no signs of visible progress, neither in terms of respecting Ukrainian territorial integrity or the agreements of Minsk and Sevastopol, nor in terms of Putin's regime leaving power. The EU-US negative conditionality (sanctions) against Russia seems to be losing its momentum despite new measures taken and prolonged in 2017. Russia's annexation of Crimea as well as the separat…
Nato options and dilemmas for deterring Russia in the Baltic States
According to the NATO’s collective defence strategy and the principle of deterrence, “no one should doubt NATO’s resolve if the security of any of its members were to be threatened”. In this sense, credible deterrence acts as a guarantee for peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region. However, recent events in Ukraine and Georgia have revealed the potential weaknesses of the current deterrence models. Without any overt fear of retaliation, w…
European Union as normative power in the Ukrainian–Russian conflict
Testing the models of transition in practice
The following study is based on the comparison of the actual transition processes in Estonia and Slovenia in 1991-2000 with the aim of testing two conceptual models (shock therapy versus gradualism) of transition theory in practice. This article has two main goals, closely interlinked with each other. The first task is to analyse whether the reform paths undertaken by Estonia and Slovenia followed the theoretical concepts of 'shock therapy' and '…
At the Dawn of a New Era of Sanctions
Navigating between policy and populace
The Convention on the Future of Europe represented an unprecedented test of the EU’s capacity for deliberation and political consensus formation. In the candidate countries of the time, this challenge was even greater given the coterminous tasks of completing accession and facing a popular referendum. In Estonia’s case, we argue that the promise of the Convention’s deliberative process was largely lost, since not only was there a gulf between sta…
Nato options and dilemmas for deterring Russia in the Baltic States
According to the NATO’s collective defence strategy and the principle of deterrence, “no one should doubt NATO’s resolve if the security of any of its members were to be threatened”. In this sense, credible deterrence acts as a guarantee for peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region. However, recent events in Ukraine and Georgia have revealed the potential weaknesses of the current deterrence models. Without any overt fear of retaliation, w…
European Union as normative power in the Ukrainian–Russian conflict
At the Dawn of a New Era of Sanctions
The bust, the boom and the sanctions in trade relations with Russia
Next to the growing tensions in global economic arena, the challenges for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are often related to Russia's actions and ambitions. Mutual economic relations have been particularly tense at the beginning of the 1990s, in 1995-1997 and then in 2007-2009, when Russia has imposed sanctions against the Baltic countries and has been putting economic, political or propagandist pressure on them. The current "sanctioning war" is …
Navigating between policy and populace
The Convention on the Future of Europe represented an unprecedented test of the EU’s capacity for deliberation and political consensus formation. In the candidate countries of the time, this challenge was even greater given the coterminous tasks of completing accession and facing a popular referendum. In Estonia’s case, we argue that the promise of the Convention’s deliberative process was largely lost, since not only was there a gulf between sta…
Baltic visions and dilemmas of territorial defence after 16 years in Nato
The concepts of development of territorial defence forces and capabilities are different within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and are closely linked with specific characteristics of respective nations. Moreover, it is linked with historic circumstances, culture, composition of society and other specific domains. Changes in the internal and international security environment are further affecting decisions about selecting specific …
Navigating between policy and populace
The Convention on the Future of Europe represented an unprecedented test of the EU’s capacity for deliberation and political consensus formation. In the candidate countries of the time, this challenge was even greater given the coterminous tasks of completing accession and facing a popular referendum. In Estonia’s case, we argue that the promise of the Convention’s deliberative process was largely lost, since not only was there a gulf between sta…
At the Dawn of a New Era of Sanctions
Testing the models of transition in practice
The following study is based on the comparison of the actual transition processes in Estonia and Slovenia in 1991-2000 with the aim of testing two conceptual models (shock therapy versus gradualism) of transition theory in practice. This article has two main goals, closely interlinked with each other. The first task is to analyse whether the reform paths undertaken by Estonia and Slovenia followed the theoretical concepts of 'shock therapy' and '…
The bust, the boom and the sanctions in trade relations with Russia
Next to the growing tensions in global economic arena, the challenges for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are often related to Russia's actions and ambitions. Mutual economic relations have been particularly tense at the beginning of the 1990s, in 1995-1997 and then in 2007-2009, when Russia has imposed sanctions against the Baltic countries and has been putting economic, political or propagandist pressure on them. The current "sanctioning war" is …
Forcing Russia to Respect Minsk Protocols with dollar auction-game model
Four years of active international sanctions against Russia have brought no signs of visible progress, neither in terms of respecting Ukrainian territorial integrity or the agreements of Minsk and Sevastopol, nor in terms of Putin's regime leaving power. The EU-US negative conditionality (sanctions) against Russia seems to be losing its momentum despite new measures taken and prolonged in 2017. Russia's annexation of Crimea as well as the separat…
Nato options and dilemmas for deterring Russia in the Baltic States
According to the NATO’s collective defence strategy and the principle of deterrence, “no one should doubt NATO’s resolve if the security of any of its members were to be threatened”. In this sense, credible deterrence acts as a guarantee for peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region. However, recent events in Ukraine and Georgia have revealed the potential weaknesses of the current deterrence models. Without any overt fear of retaliation, w…
European Union as normative power in the Ukrainian–Russian conflict
Kaliningrad, the Suwalki gap and Russia’s ambitions in the Baltic Region
The current study is motivated by the special role of the Kaliningrad region for both Russia and the NATO Alliance. The aim of the study is to analyse how likely is the outbreak of conflict in the Suwalki gap; which factors either hinder or support the escalation of the tensions between Russia and the Alliance in the region. Both the NATO Alliance and Russia have different advantages and disadvantages with respect to any future escalation in the …
Why it would be strategically rational for Russia to escalate in Kaliningrad and the Suwalki corridor
Russian escalation activities related to the Suwalki corridor and wider Baltic security make a good case for demonstrating how theoretical models could help in terms of damage control in complicated security situations. This is especially true regarding how seemingly rational and morally impeccable options may eventually lead to a painful and costly security dilemma in which the available options become both too costly and publicly unacceptable. …
The future of the Russia’s military industry
The aim of the study is to analyse both the achievements and chances of survival of the Russian military industry in the upcoming years. The central question at issue here is whether lack of both innovation and investments as well as the pressure of international sanctions can be compensated by other factors like the drop in prices for older military equipment, generous loans, quick deliveries, support of special forces that comes together with t…
Is Estonian transit sector in trouble after the EU accession and sanctions against Russia? A qualitative study of transit flows
The article investigates the reasons why transit flows have been volatile in Estonia during 2000-2018. Based on academic literature, the authors identify the following potential factors: the effect of the EU accession, EU-Russian economic sanctions; changes in the transit volume of oil products; changes in local infrastructure in Estonia; dynamics of political and economic relations with Russia; changes in market demand and Estonia's inability to…
Baltic visions and dilemmas of territorial defence after 16 years in Nato
The concepts of development of territorial defence forces and capabilities are different within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and are closely linked with specific characteristics of respective nations. Moreover, it is linked with historic circumstances, culture, composition of society and other specific domains. Changes in the internal and international security environment are further affecting decisions about selecting specific …
The Nato “Defender 2020” exercise in the Baltic States
The Defender 2020 military exercise and its related deployments look fairly reasonable and rational from the perspective of the Baltic States and NATO, but when theoretically analyzing its options left, the Russian political leadership could react severely or enact a series of policies from such an initial “provocation”. More importantly, Russia could perceive that the Baltic Sea Region is being transformed into a potential area for confrontation…
The Soleimani effect
The assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani by the United States has initiated debates about its reverberations on regional and global security. While it could have been a rational policy by the United States on the national level, this action has carried along innovative features defining what is a legally acceptable self-defence that international law would also accommodate. Namely, if the United States can unilaterally and retroactive…
Russia and Western concepts of deterrence, normative power, and sanctions
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the European Union (EU), and the Russian Federation have invested their energy in convincing the opposing side about the legitimacy, importance, and even supremacy of their international political narratives. While the West is committed to value based international order, economic and political sanctions, and credible deterrence, Russia is pushing for a concept of a Eurasian center of power, a multip…
The Kremlin’s Information Influence Campaigns in Estonia and Estonian Response in the Context of Russian-Western Relations
The Russian Federation has developed a large number of instruments to put pressure on the West using non-conventional means such as cyber attacks, economic tools and information warfare. Using modern IT technologies in its hybrid activities, Russia, much like China or other authoritarian powers, is trying to challenge the current world order. These instruments are particularly evident in the Baltic States. This article uses Estonia as a case stud…
President Putin
To choose an effective strategy to stop Putin and Russia’s aggressive ambitions in Ukraine and in wider Eastern Europe, Western political and military leaders need to understand his modus operandi and strategic logic. This article focuses on the benefits of game theory in explaining the behavior of the warring parties in Ukraine. It argues that, from an initial “mad man” or a game of chicken strategy chosen by Putin, he has been forced to gradual…
Political science (16 obras) · Law (11 obras) · Law (10 obras) · Political economy (10 obras) · Economics (9 obras) · Politics (9 obras) · International trade (8 obras) · Sociology (8 obras) · European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies (7 obras) · Law and economics (5 obras)